The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

Biden and the head of NATO both said they won't abide by any Russian red lines with regard to Ukraine joining NATO. So the question is right now, do these red lines and ultimatums mean anything? You have to remember that Biden is not intelligent -- Obama himself grew to have deep disdain for him -- and his administration is embroiled in domestic issues with an approval rating of 40% and the threat of a 4th Covid wave. So I am interested to see what will happen over the next year or two.

kvs wrote:

Bid
Ukria and instead threaten to impose new Draconian sanctions.   Mercouris has detailed all of this and his analysis outclasses pretty
much all of the analysis out there in the west.  

Yes the US no longer has much scope to impose sanctions on Russia. What else can they do?

kvs wrote:

zorobabel wrote:Biden and the head of NATO both said they won't abide by any Russian red lines with regard to Ukraine joining NATO. So the question is right now, do these red lines and ultimatums mean anything? You have to remember that Biden is not intelligent -- Obama himself grew to have deep disdain for him -- and his administration is embroiled in domestic issues with an approval rating of 40% and the threat of a 4th Covid wave. So I am interested to see what will happen over the next year or two.

Biden is a sock puppet.   His handlers are already signalling that they will not stage any military response to a Russian "invasion" of
Ukria and instead threaten to impose new Draconian sanctions.   Mercouris has detailed all of this and his analysis outclasses pretty
much all of the analysis out there in the west.   As in 2014, NATzO leaders think that Russia is a "rotten facade", as Hitler assumed
back in the late 1930s, and will crumble with enough pressure.   They simply have no clue and live in the Kool-Aid fantasy district
of Cloud Kookoo Land.

That is correct.

These are two good articles about why Russia and the US will always be enemies:

https://english.pravda.ru/world/131852-russia_usa_enemies/

https://geopolitics.news/analytics/the-forgotten-game-why-is-russia-enemy-1-for-the-us-and-west/

par far wrote:Putin-Biden summit is set for Tuesday, let's see what comes of it.

Considering that Bidheimer will recall it a day later?

andalusia wrote:These are two good articles about why Russia and the US will always be enemies:

https://english.pravda.ru/world/131852-russia_usa_enemies/

https://geopolitics.news/analytics/the-forgotten-game-why-is-russia-enemy-1-for-the-us-and-west/

Because US need enemies to survive. Not only Russia but also China and even EU (eco speaking) are its enemies.

kvs wrote:Even Obama recognized that Russia has escalation dominance in Ukraine.   NATO cannot ride in to the rescue.

But Russia is not interested in invading the toilet called Ukria.   It will not even "invade" the Donbass.  I am quite sure
that over the last 7 years the Donbass "militia" has been upgraded into a real army.   It was already more competent
and able than the Kiev regime "army" in 2014.   The gap has only increased since then.   Russia has a strong incentive
to have it this way since it does not want or need to play into NATzO's hands.

For Russia, reacting to an ukronazi attack to the Donbass could be like the Syrian campaign on steroids. Close the sky over LDNR and use air power and stand-off weapons to eliminate air defences, air bases, ammo depots, railways, command centers etc. to turn ukie armed forces into a "guys with rifles" level of combat force and then interdict anything moving in some hundred km from the front, while they completely control any movement or NATO involvement in the strategic depth with their assets in the Southern MD and Crimea. That being accomplished, the own LDNR forces can be the boots on the ground and do the job of cleaning any remaining opposition. This is more than enough to clear the threat away from the two republics and even eventually to recover the whole territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts as an additional thank you! to the regime in Kiev. Without any remaining armed forces that can be called like that, they will either be removed from power or have to negotiate directly with the LDNR leadership under the threat of losing the whole of Novorossia. Things could develop in a way that may make them remember Minsk II as the best deal ever...

Editing: the whole scenario in the end does not need Russian tanks rolling over anyone, at all. Since the HATO has established aerial campaigns of utter destruction and massive CM attacks as a tool of nation building, freedom exporting and a proof of utmost respect for the bombed country and its population, they will have nothing to complain about when the Russians do the same to Ukraine. And even better, quite little if any Russian servicemen will need to lose their lives over traps laid by the West.

This is all about NS-2

One thing discussed in the video that really got my attention was, when it talked about integration of Russian and Chinese economies.

What does this mean?

Is China going to buy all its oil, natural gas, coal and other resources from Russia?

Are there going to be a lot of Chinese tourists coming to Sochi, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Crimea(does the Chinese airlines fly directly to the Crimea?) And other Russian destinations.

Will more Russian tourists travel to Bejing, Macau, Hongkong and other Chinese destinations?

What kind of integration are we talking here?

Smerch would need other than HE warhead. I don't know if it really suited for use against tanks.

There are a range of anti tank options for Smerch... for large groups of tanks the unguided anti tank submunition rockets would be best with 646 anti tank top attack HEAT charge submunitions per rocket would do some serious damage... mixed in with the top attack self forging fragment guided submunition using MMW radar and IR sensors to find tanks and destroy them... 6 munitions per rocket both out to 90km or so.

Geography is a bitch, but what can you expect from people that confuse Austria and Australia, or Korea and Crimea...

Or Georgia US vs Georgia fmr SU.

Although if the US risks deploying the IRBM close to Russia's borders, it's a dangerous game.

A very dangerous game because it would put Russian responses on a hair trigger... ask Alex Baldwin about that...

Biden and the head of NATO both said they won't abide by any Russian red lines with regard to Ukraine joining NATO.

Which shows how stupid they are... a red line is like a land mine, you can't say you don't believe they exist and wont let them effect what you do... that is like walking into a mine field without being careful where you put your feet...

Russia wont care if Biden does not approve their red lines.... when he crosses them they will respond... they have warned him and if he chooses to ignore that then that is fine, but if the Russians say a red line is US ballistic missiles in Ukraine, and Biden acts tough and says he doesn't care and puts some there then the reaction of Russia... say a few nuclear bombs in geostationary orbit over the US designed to deorbit and explode over the US if anything is launched from the Ukraine at Russia is detected... only a few minutes warning so it will be on a real hair trigger... Creepy Joe can ignore the presence of these weapons but will that make the US safe, will it make the Ukraine safe?

These are two good articles about why Russia and the US will always be enemies:

The irony is that the US probably has more to gain by being friends, but their MIC is insatiable...

Because US need enemies to survive. Not only Russia but also China and even EU (eco speaking) are its enemies.

It really doesn't, but it does not have the interest or incentive to change the way it works so that it can grow and develop without consuming corpses of invaded countries and also keep the local natives happy by making them think the government is keeping them safe from the big bad boogey man.

They just don't know of any other way to have a working economy... the irony is that if they looked at what Putin has done for Russia.... in 10-15 years they could be a totally different culture and society... but because of their rules regarding the presidency no one is going to start something they can't finish...

Editing: the whole scenario in the end does not need Russian tanks rolling over anyone, at all. Since the HATO has established aerial campaigns of utter destruction and massive CM attacks as a tool of nation building, freedom exporting and a proof of utmost respect for the bombed country and its population, they will have nothing to complain about when the Russians do the same to Ukraine. And even better, quite little if any Russian servicemen will need to lose their lives over traps laid by the West.

Indeed the campaign sounds like the South Ossetia invasion but could just as easily be resolved using the local manpower with support of air power and C4IR from Russia to cripple the enemies ability to continue the invasion and push them back to their starting lines. There is no impassable mountain range between these countries and ground based artillery could pummel Ukrops forces in their staging areas from Russian territory once one group moves the entire Ukrainian force can be hammered from Russian territory while HQ and comms centres all through the country can be eliminated with cruise missile attacks... Russian SAMs near the border could effectively stop all Ukrop air traffic over most of the Ukraine including from Belarus... Luka has already offered support in case of Ukrainian aggression.

What kind of integration are we talking here?

Pretty sure it wont be EU type Shengen integration, but that looks like a nightmare anyway.

Just make it easier for people to go to either country and to trade.

Isos wrote:Because US need enemies to survive. Not only Russia but also China and even EU (eco speaking) are its enemies.

Why would the U.S consider EU to be an enemy? Most Americans are of European decent and almost all EU states are NATO members.

U.S doesn't consider China to be an adversary either. They created China to keep a check on Russia.

GarryB wrote:Pretty sure it wont be EU type Shengen integration, but that looks like a nightmare anyway.

The most important integration that is now required is for Belarus to become an integral part of Russia. The West was planning a coloured revolution in Belarus similar to the one they staged in Ukraine. They will keep on trying, so Belarus should become a part of Russia.

dino00 wrote:This is all about NS-2

It is all about retaining own privileges in doing business, and at the end, secured&predictable priced energy for the EU economy is something worth sabotaging.
As long as piper runs through unstable vassal territories, one can influence the stability of supplies easily.
When you connect the source&demand bypassing the spheres of influence, it hurts the hegemon's feelings.

jhelb wrote:

Isos wrote:Because US need enemies to survive. Not only Russia but also China and even EU (eco speaking) are its enemies.

Why would the U.S consider EU to be an enemy? Most Americans are of European decent and almost all EU states are NATO members.

U.S doesn't consider China to be an adversary either. They created China to keep a check on Russia.

EU is a competitor, US needs only countries that push America agenda and buy American's products. Germany and Italy are colonies. They are given some advantages, but the moment they move in a direction that is not advantageous to US policy or their industries are too competitive against US firm they are punished.
Furthermore the living conditions are getting worse every year. When I was a kid the salaries and quality of life in Central and northern Italy were quite advantageous. When I started working the conditions were much different and I had to move abroad not to be exploited (with a MSc in engineering).

Ukraine (and Georgia) thought that by aligning closer to US and EU they would only have advantages. They did not want to understand or failed to communicate the actual role their country would have when becoming a US puppet.

I understand some of the claims against Russia, but they never even tried a proper neutral neighbor approach, that Russia would have tolerated without problem. They went from being a part of a large union to invite the former enemies (US) to their country with the aim to do the maximum possible damage to Russia. And now they cry.

I believe, at least for Georgia, the ideal would be to pursue a neutral policy (a sort of poor man Switzerland or Austria), and they may still  have a way out, if they finally kick out all the Americans labs and interests (and they properly deal with their oligarchs, many have whom have the government in their pockets).

For the Ukraine instead it's too late for a way out. 8 years ago they still had the possibility to try and build a normal country, but that ship has sailed.[/quote]

jhelb wrote:Why would the U.S consider EU to be an enemy? [...] U.S doesn't consider China to be an adversary either.

Because they are economic rivals. There is a reason why the United States is trying to screw the Europeans up over NS II and it is not because they want their LNG to make a profit, they want to make European industry un-profitable so they become dependant.

It is very similar to what happened in Eastern Europe. The Germans, French and UK simply expanded their consumer base because the Eastern Europeans can't hope to compete with their industry capability.

As for China, they might have considered them something other than adversaries in the past, though they have become competent economic rivals as well. In addition, looking at the Chinese ship-building scale, they'll become (if they haven't already) a military adversary soon as well.

Practically all of their technology is home-grown and they have contributed an great deal of work on the 5th generation 3GPP (Cellular) specification. Once they start to build their own passenger aircraft, it' will be hard to pin-point what they are still dependant on. If a free market was to be allowed, they would easily decimate their competitors in practically all spheres.

par far wrote:


One thing discussed in the video that really got my attention was, when it talked about integration of Russian and Chinese economies.

What does this mean?

Is China going to buy all its oil, natural gas, coal and other resources from Russia?

Are there going to be a lot of Chinese tourists coming to Sochi, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Crimea(does the Chinese airlines fly directly to the Crimea?) And other Russian destinations.

Will more Russian tourists travel to Bejing, Macau, Hongkong and other Chinese destinations?

What kind of integration are we talking here?

I think we need a separate dedicated thread just to discuss all these points.

If Russia ever did invade I would imagine that they would go as far as:
1) kharkiv city this would take out Ukrainian armour building facilities.
2) Dnipro taking all the industrial industry
3) zaporizhia securing the coast and step towards land linking Crimea. (Even though they have bridge)
4) Kherson final piece in land linking of Crimea and more coastal land
5) mykolaiv gain more coastal land and ship building facilities
6) Odessa this would not only complete all coastal areas, and a port, but would Landlock Ukraine and form land link up to Transnistria and Gagauzia both semi autonomous and russian leaning.
7) kirovohrad maybe to add land mass between the coastal regions.

This would not only make Ukraine land locked but lose important industries and give the the newly formed country key industries and sea access, and any oil and gas fields onshore and offshore, agricultural industry, and pretty much leave the rest of Ukraine in shit state. And although Ukraine would still be a sizable country still too big for the EU to completely rescue and fund. And although there would be some serious challenges for Russia and the new country through sanctions, and investment to get it to a decent economic level. It wouldn't happen overnight but it would most likely be better off than it currently is within 10yrs.

But will it happen? Most likely not, or certainly not anytime soon. Support in those regions needs to be higher for a start.

GarryB wrote:
Indeed the campaign sounds like the South Ossetia invasion but could just as easily be resolved using the local manpower with support of air power and C4IR from Russia to cripple the enemies ability to continue the invasion and push them back to their starting lines. There is no impassable mountain range between these countries and ground based artillery could pummel Ukrops forces in their staging areas from Russian territory once one group moves the entire Ukrainian force can be hammered from Russian territory while HQ and comms centres all through the country can be eliminated with cruise missile attacks... Russian SAMs near the border could effectively stop all Ukrop air traffic over most of the Ukraine including from Belarus... Luka has already offered support in case of Ukrainian aggression.

Exactly. LDNR already have an army, and a rather good one, with full motivation, training, combat experience and many accounts to settle with the nazis. With the qualitative edge provided by the latest Russian military developments they can compensate for their numerical inferiority, and being nationals they don't need to stop at the borders of Donbass, if need arises.

owais.usmani wrote:

par far wrote:


One thing discussed in the video that really got my attention was, when it talked about integration of Russian and Chinese economies.

What does this mean?

Is China going to buy all its oil, natural gas, coal and other resources from Russia?

Are there going to be a lot of Chinese tourists coming to Sochi, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Crimea(does the Chinese airlines fly directly to the Crimea?) And other Russian destinations.

Will more Russian tourists travel to Bejing, Macau, Hongkong and other Chinese destinations?

What kind of integration are we talking here?

I think we need a separate dedicated thread just to discuss all these points.

Last time I was in Russia, I saw very few American or European tourists: I saw boatloads of Chinese tourists. I know at MGU in the Russian language courses there are very few Europeans or Americans. Majority of students enrolled (to learn Russian to study in Russian) are Chinese.

Read between the lines.

The biggest fear the US has of Russia is that Russia and Europe integrates into a super Europe.

The USs fears in that regard is not for democracy or peace, it only cares for itself, so its fears would be losing the EU as a rich market for its goods and services.

But Asia is also a growing market and it sees Russia trying to integrate with the EU and China trying to build bridges from Asia to the EU and it realises it has little to no part in such relationships so it has to play spoiler... Russia is not stupid or desperate enough to be played against China the way they used China against the Soviet Union, but India is poor and desperate enough and it will tell itself it is not being used... it wants the investment and development that went in to China to be put in India so it can grow and develop... problem of course is that this was an unintended byproduct... China was supposed to be a counter to Russia and they were supposed to destroy each other... the US needs conflict to keep rivals down and weak... India has every potential of developing and taking the same path as China, but instead of US and western investment the potential is with Chinese and Russian and South African and Brazilian investment and support.... BRICSA, but they are falling for US lies.

The real problem for India is that it really can't compete with China... all it can do is be Pakistan to India... the way the US funded and supported Pakistan to keep India from developing and growing...

So the US survives by funding and supporting the enemies of its perceived enemies, except as we see in the Ukraine the result is often more dire for the US allies than their intended victims... money will still buy willing useful idiots but they will always lack real support from the masses because anyone can see what happens to US allies eventually... even when they succeed like in Libya or Ukraine they end up getting dumped when the US loses interest because they have done as much damage as they can to the intended victim.

In many ways the quickest easiest solution would be for Kiev to try to take the Donbass, because I suspect the so called rebels would slaughter them and Russian support would prevent HATO interference and the borders of the newest countries in the world will be determined and set in stone.... Russia will likely have very little to do... clear the air space, target a few artillery units, and then open its borders to these new regions who will likely massively benefit from open trade with Russia and the Crimea to the point where other regions in the Ukraine might consider doing the same, or working together to get a pro Ukraine but not Anti Russian government into power in Kiev... when Kiev stops all the sanctions against Russia then Russia will likely do the same... they wont return to previous levels because a lot of capacity for Kiev has been lost or replaced with better stuff made in Russia, but the Ukrainian economy will zoom in comparison to what it is now.

Russia might even give them a super cheap price on gas for dropping the sanctions, and why not it is not like they don't have plenty... and of course the Ukraine will buy lots of extra gas and then sell that to Poland and other EU countries to make a huge profit... but who cares as long as they spend it on their economy instead of their military to oppose people who just want to speak Russian.

Ukro SBU have acquired video evidence of massive Russian preparation for an invasion.

Garry B wrote:India has every potential of developing and taking the same path as China

No, India is a broken toilet, a dysfunctional dumpster-fire of a nation. It has no potential to be Chinas equal. The Indian elites are some of the most corrupt on the planet, and being infected by the caste system, they hate the very people they are supposed to be representing.

Big_Gazza wrote:

Garry B wrote:India has every potential of developing and taking the same path as China

No, India is a broken toilet, a dysfunctional dumpster-fire of a nation. It has no potential to be Chinas equal. The Indian elites are some of the most corrupt on the planet, and being infected by the caste system, they hate the very people they are supposed to be representing.

Yes and no. The conservatives (BJP) is actually more for people while the libtards (congress) is for bollywood and rich elites.  Do you see a similarity?

The issue isn't caste system.  Initially, the system was created to keep equal opportunities for all groups of people (keep em working).  It was actually bastardized and controlled by the British.  In the end, the British mentality still exists in a large part of the elite in India. This is liberals too.  So Modi is working against pretty much a system designed against him.

So many exist in power in India trying their best to turn India around. Popularity of such people are growing - same emphasis like Philippines and Duterte.  But issue in India is religious conflict. Christian missionaries from UK, France and US, along with Muslims are destroying Indias history by destroying temples. Then Muslims go a step further and commit love jihads and kill people who they don't like. Authorities can't do much cause they are scared. Government should be showing strength but many use this as an opportunity. Rule of law is rather non existent.

This is what holds India back from being next China.  If the authorities Crack down and decide to enforce rule of law, then it could very well become next China.  But local authorities will be a major hurdle. But India has shown it is capable. They sent troops to Kashmir regardless of how unpopular move was to the 20% of the population.