The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

JohninMK wrote:

par far wrote:I think the best thing(the absolute best thing) for Russia is to not interfere directly, give the Donbass forces enough support/equipment/intelligence to hold their own and push the UkroNazi's back, where they are forced to stop the shelling of Donbass and back across the contact line.

This is the absolute best thing for Russia.

Umm, no it isn't.

The West has been brainwashed into thing that it was the Russians who 'held back' the Ukie Army back in 2014/5/6 not the local 'militia' who would of course be unable to defeat a 'proper' army like Ukraine had. They also believe that the defences are still maned by Russians.

You also miss that the number 1 objective of the Ukies will be to destroy the infrastructure, the front lines are almost certainly secondary. The reason? To make it uninhabitable as a punishment.

The only way to stop or at least mitigate it is for Russia to respond with a rocket/missile barrage almost as the Ukies hit the fire button. DNR/LPR do not have that capability, only Russia does. Few if any Russians need to cross the border to destroy the Ukie army in a few hours and the local militias move out to their oblast borders. NATO won't even have time to call a meeting before its all over and the Russians are on their feet in the UN Security Council.

NO Russian invasion took place, even with this provocation. Europe can rest easy in their beds, there is no Red Horde waiting to attack.

I believe that is what the Russians alluded to back about earlier this year. Ukraine digs itself a hole, Russia then uses that as an excuse. Them publishing drone footage that did nothing, still garnered Ukraine more hatred.

The forces in DNR and LNR are capable. Give them equipment and they can cause serious damage to Ukraine. Flip side, if Ukraine tries to go all out, they will face from Russia barrages to key infrastructure which then give the DNR and LNR forces time to strike hard.

Only thing Russia needs to provide is longer range AD systems. But once again, I think they are waiting on Ukraine's move.

JohninMK wrote:

par far wrote:I think the best thing(the absolute best thing) for Russia is to not interfere directly, give the Donbass forces enough support/equipment/intelligence to hold their own and push the UkroNazi's back, where they are forced to stop the shelling of Donbass and back across the contact line.

This is the absolute best thing for Russia.

Umm, no it isn't.

The West has been brainwashed into thing that it was the Russians who 'held back' the Ukie Army back in 2014/5/6 not the local 'militia' who would of course be unable to defeat a 'proper' army like Ukraine had. They also believe that the defences are still maned by Russians.

You also miss that the number 1 objective of the Ukies will be to destroy the infrastructure, the front lines are almost certainly secondary. The reason? To make it uninhabitable as a punishment.

The only way to stop or at least mitigate it is for Russia to respond with a rocket/missile barrage almost as the Ukies hit the fire button. DNR/LPR do not have that capability, only Russia does. Few if any Russians need to cross the border to destroy the Ukie army in a few hours and the local militias move out to their oblast borders. NATO won't even have time to call a meeting before its all over and the Russians are on their feet in the UN Security Council.

NO Russian invasion took place, even with this provocation. Europe can rest easy in their beds, there is no Red Horde waiting to attack.

It does not matter what the west thinks(at this point, the western masses are fucked and beyond any help). What really matters is what the planners at the Pentagon think, they have all the details on who "held back" the Ukies army in 2014/2015/2016 and they know about the Air Defenses.

If the Ukies are forced to stop their shelling or decrease their shelling significantly, they won't have the opportunit to destroy the infrastructure.

If Russia responds directly, than the Americans get what they want. And that is to put more sanctions on Russia(not that it matters), to show Ukrainian people that is Russia is the enemy and the Ukrainians need to fight the Russians,  to get the EU to to slap sanctions on Russia and hurt trade with Russia, to show Europe that it needs US/NATO to "stop Russian Aggression"(this gives NATO the chance to expand even further), it gives Americans the chance to hurt Russian interests in Asia.

The UN is useless.

Russia has to work indirectly/covertly(like it has been doing), Russia needs to improve DNR/LPR capabilities. There is a trap set for Russia in Ukraine and the Russian leadership understands this perfectly(US/NATO/West were likely shocked when Russia came to Syria instead of Ukraine.)

I don't see the Russian Military getting directly involved(not even with just launching missiles).

JohninMK wrote:

par far wrote:

It does not matter what the west thinks(at this point, the western masses are fucked and beyond any help). What really matters is what the planners at the Pentagon think, they have all the details on who "held back" the Ukies army in 2014/2015/2016 and they know about the Air Defenses.

If the Ukies are forced to stop their shelling or decrease their shelling significantly, they won't have the opportunit to destroy the infrastructure.

If Russia responds directly, than the Americans get what they want. And that is to put more sanctions on Russia(not that it matters), to show Ukrainian people that is Russia is the enemy and the Ukrainians need to fight the Russians,  to get the EU to to slap sanctions on Russia and hurt trade with Russia, to show Europe that it needs US/NATO to "stop Russian Aggression"(this gives NATO the chance to expand even further), it gives Americans the chance to hurt Russian interests in Asia.

The UN is useless.

I don't see the Russian Military getting directly involved(not even with just launching missiles).

I basically disagree with every point you make above. But its pointless discussing it further.

That is fine JohninMK, we just have different views on this. Please note that I really like your posts and I agree with you on a lot but just not here.

Possibly true but they will still be Ukrainians and not Russians and they might want much better relations with the EU and HATO than Russia might be happy with...

To clarify what I mean there is that if the Ukraine decides to stop all the hostility to Russia and open its borders for trade and commerce... their problem will be if they want good relations with the US and EU then they can't have good relations with Russia... the EU and US will demand exclusive relations, which means relations with Russia would need to be severed which is the current situation.

The effect on the economy in the Ukraine has been drastic mainly because the US and EU were never important markets or trading partners for the Ukraine and things have not improved much, while cutting off Russia has been devastating for the Ukrainian economy because Russia was their primary customer.

The lack of aid and support from the west that was supposed to compensate for that never arrived... western countries are protective of their industries and might want to sell their goods in the Ukraine but don't want Ukrainian competition in their markets.

Ukrainian products were used in Russia and were useful... An-2s and An-124s are good aircraft, and trying to replace them has been difficult and largely begins with new engines, but replacements are on the way that are planned and managed and mostly paid for so when they start arriving they will be state of the art and rather better than the platforms they are replacing and will be competitive against anything on the international market.

Even if Kiev dropped this BS right now it would cost trillions to get them to the point where they can make planes and support the needs of Russia... which would write off much of the work done in Russia.

The course is irreversible... those PD engines look amazing and will start being put into service in their various size and thrust classes forming a base that could replace a wide range of engines currently used that will be a generation better...

Imagine a Bear with four PD-35 engines? Or perhaps a Bear with two PD-50 engines...

Sanctions are good precisely because they cause discomfort.

Russia knew it should be growing its own food... but food imports from the EU were cheap and easy... local Russian food companies could not compete and get established, but thanks to sanctions the Russians were able to ban EU food imports... without the sanctions WTO rules would say no to such a thing and Russia would be stuck with no local alternatives able to provide food in quantity and quality for the price the EU countries can afford to do it.

Other countries should take note... perhaps that could be the secret to development... piss off the west and get sanctions so you can ban something of theirs to restore something you lost.

For example the UK could get the EU to put sanctions on them over something... like fisheries.... and the UK could respond with a ban on European car imports to help the British car industry grow with no competition for a bit... though Asian car makers could probably outmake Europe anyway...

If Russia responds directly, than the Americans get what they want. And that is to put more sanctions on Russia(not that it matters), to show Ukrainian people that is Russia is the enemy and the Ukrainians need to fight the Russians,  to get the EU to to slap sanctions on Russia and hurt trade with Russia, to show Europe that it needs US/NATO to "stop Russian Aggression"(this gives NATO the chance to expand even further), it gives Americans the chance to hurt Russian interests in Asia.

I think the situation has progressed to the point where Russia does not care about any sanctions the US or the EU could impose... in fact I think they probably don't care if all relations and ties were cut... it is very much a case of Georgia part two where separate regions don't want to be part of the country they are legally attached to and if that country wants to force the situation with military force then Russia will stop them and push them back to a distance where they can't keep shelling or bombing etc etc.

They will target military forces and I think they did rather well in Georgia considering both sides were essentially "Soviet" forces, but I think the training and equipment improvements as well as planning and tactics has improved immeasurably for Russia... the difference is that now they might launch a cruise missile strike to attack the planners and command and control centres that the attack orders were issued from... perhaps even attacking HQs of certain factions in Kiev to damage those organisations... but they wont take Kiev.... they will secure the areas and then likely get Kiev to the table to sign a peace treaty and then leave as soon as they can.

I don't see the Russian Military getting directly involved(not even with just launching missiles).

Unlike in South Ossetia, there are no Russian forces present and no mandate to protect autonomous regions, though the Minsk agreements could be used as justification for such... I would expect Russian special forces might be used, but I think the local forces could probably deal with the Ukrainian forces anyway.

Note the Georgians in 2008 attacked South Ossetia but left Abkhazia alone because they didn't want to fight both at the same time... will Kiev pick and choose and only attack one region at a time and how will the other regions respond.... you would think they would work together but who knows.

Note I talk about the Georgian conflict as an example, but I must say I was disappointed when Russia sent troops to Syria because I thought it was a trap that would not help and just kill lots of Russian soldiers, but their planning and training and skills led to them having a decisive effect in battle, to them learning a lot and testing a lot of equipment and weapons which will be improved and upgraded because of this... overall despite the loss of life I think the Russians made a good choice...

Whether they will do in the Ukraine what they did in Georgia, or they will do in the Ukraine what they did in Nagorno Kharabakh remains to be seen.

Interesting reading, nevemind propaganda...

JohninMK wrote:Maybe this is why the Russians are moving?

Geo_monitor
@colonelhomsi
·
14h
Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic: All the obvious signs and a number of other signs show that Ukraine is preparing either for war or for a very serious challenge..

They do not need to move anything whatsover as the Russians already have all of the equipment they need stationed very close to Ukraine.

During the previous exercise they left a lot of gear in staging areas. All they need is to get personel and logistics (lubricans and oil) there. If they haven't left them there already.

It's fairly unlikely that anything is going to happen. The Ukrainians will likely escalate here and there and the DNR/LDNR shall respond. To believe that this is the 'happening' moment is a bit silly as it is not the first time this year that similar escalations have been done.

Some potshots with minimal material damage isn't going to kick-start a war that would lead to much more material damage. The situation (political and economical) in Ukraine is comical and they will likely: a) Freeze or b) Steal gas from the EU. The Russians & DNR/LDNR simply need to wait the Ukrainians out until the people decide freezing over political ideals isn't... ideal.

That said, we shall see even more provocations from Ukraine as they are slowly getting desperate for additional US/EU support, including but not exclusive to the cancelation of the NS II project. The EU (read: Germany) is going to be very against this as it would severely damage their industrial potential and competitiveness, especially in the context of current times, but the people at the helm of Ukraine and (future) German government aren't the smartest.

nero wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Maybe this is why the Russians are moving?

Geo_monitor
@colonelhomsi
·
14h
Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic: All the obvious signs and a number of other signs show that Ukraine is preparing either for war or for a very serious challenge..

They do not need to move anything whatsover as the Russians already have all of the equipment they need stationed very close to Ukraine.

During the previous exercise they left a lot of gear in staging areas. All they need is to get personel and logistics (lubricans and oil) there. If they haven't left them there already.

It's fairly unlikely that anything is going to happen. The Ukrainians will likely escalate here and there and the DNR/LDNR shall respond. To believe that this is the 'happening' moment is a bit silly as it is not the first time this year that similar escalations have been done.

Some potshots with minimal material damage isn't going to kick-start a war that would lead to much more material damage. The situation (political and economical) in Ukraine is comical and they will likely: a) Freeze or b) Steal gas from the EU. The Russians & DNR/LDNR simply need to wait the Ukrainians out until the people decide freezing over political ideals isn't... ideal.

That said, we shall see even more provocations from Ukraine as they are slowly getting desperate for additional US/EU support, including but not exclusive to the cancelation of the NS II project. The EU (read: Germany) is going to be very against this as it would severely damage their industrial potential and competitiveness, especially in the context of current times, but the people at the helm of Ukraine and (future) German government aren't the smartest.

This is how I see it as well. Very good take.

nero wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Maybe this is why the Russians are moving?

Geo_monitor
@colonelhomsi
·
14h
Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic: All the obvious signs and a number of other signs show that Ukraine is preparing either for war or for a very serious challenge..

They do not need to move anything whatsover as the Russians already have all of the equipment they need stationed very close to Ukraine.

During the previous exercise they left a lot of gear in staging areas. All they need is to get personel and logistics (lubricans and oil) there. If they haven't left them there already.

It's fairly unlikely that anything is going to happen. The Ukrainians will likely escalate here and there and the DNR/LDNR shall respond. To believe that this is the 'happening' moment is a bit silly as it is not the first time this year that similar escalations have been done.

Some potshots with minimal material damage isn't going to kick-start a war that would lead to much more material damage. The situation (political and economical) in Ukraine is comical and they will likely: a) Freeze or b) Steal gas from the EU. The Russians & DNR/LDNR simply need to wait the Ukrainians out until the people decide freezing over political ideals isn't... ideal.

That said, we shall see even more provocations from Ukraine as they are slowly getting desperate for additional US/EU support, including but not exclusive to the cancelation of the NS II project. The EU (read: Germany) is going to be very against this as it would severely damage their industrial potential and competitiveness, especially in the context of current times, but the people at the helm of Ukraine and (future) German government aren't the smartest.

NS II has been completed and is a fait accompli. Even if it takes Germany another 5 years to certify and open it, it is a certainty that it will be done at this point, and thus the investment and ultimate goal of bypassing the Ukraine has been fulfilled. The tactical details are not too important.

I don't know what the Ukraine's game here is, but everything they've done so far has just ended up boomeranging back to them, they haven't taken 1 correct decision. And this time will scarcely be any different.

Almost wondet if this is just being used as a pretext to stop NS2 from being certified and finally being utilized. There is a strange madness in western leadership that makes me trust them less than any of the worst warhawks of the old cold war era.

Edit: had not read the two posts above. But this is what I think is primarily the reason.

Their problem is there is no chance at all they could even win a war... even when Russia does not actively take part like previous hostilities between the factions.

The rebels will likely inflict nasty defeats on the orcs at the very best for Kiev leading to a cease fire and then likely demands for independence for the rebels.

If they are actually successful through weigh of numbers and western "support" then this will likely for Russia to intervene and basically crush the orcs and push them back out of disputed territory where they will likely remain as "peace keepers" till the rebels can have a proper referendum to decide what they want to do moving forward... return to Kiev, independence with open trade with Russia and Crimea, or independence with a view to eventually joining the Russian Federation.

Personally I think they would be interested in the second option.

But then what will this do to the Ukraine... will each other neighbour take a piece and absorb the whole country... if that happens then there might be other pieces up for grabs... I don't think Russia should capture the entire country and let each region decide its own future... even if that would be best for the Ukrainian people no matter their decisions.

They are certainly not going to get any real choice with the current regime in Kiev and the EU and US don't care about democracy or the Ukrainian people... they are just cannon fodder... expendable wall material to keep the Russians out.

GarryB wrote:Their problem is there is no chance at all they could even win a war...

They are not going to win any war.
The only goal of this stupidity is turning the attention in both directions.
The first - give us more money, we are poor defenders of the European values, attacked by the ugly Mordor hordes.
The other - look our fellow Ukrainians, we could have already eaten from the golden plates, but those evil Russkies attacked us again and stolen all our possessions, and you know that we were so healthy, that even Jesus Christ turned for Ukrainian citizenship! So STFU and freeze with dignity!

Today Russia stop delivering coal to Ukraine for thermal power plants and Russia and Belarus will not deliver electricity to Ukraine... Winter will be interesting in Ukraine. I wonder how much fuel they get, it's difficult to start new war without enough fuel for tanks and logistics. Without electricity electic trains will not drive, without fuel diesel trains as well. Same went for trucks and tanks...

Another Ukrainian video...apparently they have destroyed 2 IFVs.

It looks to me more and more like the attempt of Nagorno-Karabakh 2.

Always be careful with videos. During Karabakh, a lot of fake videos were emerging and being used as evidence of one side or another atrocities.

I think though with them doing this, they are just giving Russia a reason to act. And the other side's will find it harder to convince the crowd to support them.

But DPR/LNR do lack high altitude AD systems so it wouldn't be hard for Ukraine to use these near border where the others have equipment. Russia could shoot them down from afar but I think they are allowing Ukraine to dig itself a deeper hole.

It is within Russian borders... because the europeans refused to ratify and honour the CFE treaty Russia is not bound by any agreement or treaty regarding its deployment of its own forces within its own borders... another treaty the west broke and now would like back I suppose...

The west wants them to fight back. They should donate some older buk missiles to the ukrainian allies.

But it would be cool if Russia did it Israel style and surgically struck the ukrainians goofy RC planes.