Possibly true but they will still be Ukrainians and not Russians and they might want much better relations with the EU and HATO than Russia might be happy with...
To clarify what I mean there is that if the Ukraine decides to stop all the hostility to Russia and open its borders for trade and commerce... their problem will be if they want good relations with the US and EU then they can't have good relations with Russia... the EU and US will demand exclusive relations, which means relations with Russia would need to be severed which is the current situation.
The effect on the economy in the Ukraine has been drastic mainly because the US and EU were never important markets or trading partners for the Ukraine and things have not improved much, while cutting off Russia has been devastating for the Ukrainian economy because Russia was their primary customer.
The lack of aid and support from the west that was supposed to compensate for that never arrived... western countries are protective of their industries and might want to sell their goods in the Ukraine but don't want Ukrainian competition in their markets.
Ukrainian products were used in Russia and were useful... An-2s and An-124s are good aircraft, and trying to replace them has been difficult and largely begins with new engines, but replacements are on the way that are planned and managed and mostly paid for so when they start arriving they will be state of the art and rather better than the platforms they are replacing and will be competitive against anything on the international market.
Even if Kiev dropped this BS right now it would cost trillions to get them to the point where they can make planes and support the needs of Russia... which would write off much of the work done in Russia.
The course is irreversible... those PD engines look amazing and will start being put into service in their various size and thrust classes forming a base that could replace a wide range of engines currently used that will be a generation better...
Imagine a Bear with four PD-35 engines? Or perhaps a Bear with two PD-50 engines...
Sanctions are good precisely because they cause discomfort.
Russia knew it should be growing its own food... but food imports from the EU were cheap and easy... local Russian food companies could not compete and get established, but thanks to sanctions the Russians were able to ban EU food imports... without the sanctions WTO rules would say no to such a thing and Russia would be stuck with no local alternatives able to provide food in quantity and quality for the price the EU countries can afford to do it.
Other countries should take note... perhaps that could be the secret to development... piss off the west and get sanctions so you can ban something of theirs to restore something you lost.
For example the UK could get the EU to put sanctions on them over something... like fisheries.... and the UK could respond with a ban on European car imports to help the British car industry grow with no competition for a bit... though Asian car makers could probably outmake Europe anyway...
If Russia responds directly, than the Americans get what they want. And that is to put more sanctions on Russia(not that it matters), to show Ukrainian people that is Russia is the enemy and the Ukrainians need to fight the Russians, to get the EU to to slap sanctions on Russia and hurt trade with Russia, to show Europe that it needs US/NATO to "stop Russian Aggression"(this gives NATO the chance to expand even further), it gives Americans the chance to hurt Russian interests in Asia.
I think the situation has progressed to the point where Russia does not care about any sanctions the US or the EU could impose... in fact I think they probably don't care if all relations and ties were cut... it is very much a case of Georgia part two where separate regions don't want to be part of the country they are legally attached to and if that country wants to force the situation with military force then Russia will stop them and push them back to a distance where they can't keep shelling or bombing etc etc.
They will target military forces and I think they did rather well in Georgia considering both sides were essentially "Soviet" forces, but I think the training and equipment improvements as well as planning and tactics has improved immeasurably for Russia... the difference is that now they might launch a cruise missile strike to attack the planners and command and control centres that the attack orders were issued from... perhaps even attacking HQs of certain factions in Kiev to damage those organisations... but they wont take Kiev.... they will secure the areas and then likely get Kiev to the table to sign a peace treaty and then leave as soon as they can.
I don't see the Russian Military getting directly involved(not even with just launching missiles).
Unlike in South Ossetia, there are no Russian forces present and no mandate to protect autonomous regions, though the Minsk agreements could be used as justification for such... I would expect Russian special forces might be used, but I think the local forces could probably deal with the Ukrainian forces anyway.
Note the Georgians in 2008 attacked South Ossetia but left Abkhazia alone because they didn't want to fight both at the same time... will Kiev pick and choose and only attack one region at a time and how will the other regions respond.... you would think they would work together but who knows.
Note I talk about the Georgian conflict as an example, but I must say I was disappointed when Russia sent troops to Syria because I thought it was a trap that would not help and just kill lots of Russian soldiers, but their planning and training and skills led to them having a decisive effect in battle, to them learning a lot and testing a lot of equipment and weapons which will be improved and upgraded because of this... overall despite the loss of life I think the Russians made a good choice...
Whether they will do in the Ukraine what they did in Georgia, or they will do in the Ukraine what they did in Nagorno Kharabakh remains to be seen.
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