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    Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:36 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:...Then there's the factor of India as well and Russia can't really just screw them over by giving the thumbs up to Pakistan to do whatever they want in Afghanistan. The Taliban have already been indicating that they could send fighters to Kashmir next.

    The best solution would be a diplomatic one. Pakistan is not helping here.

    Nobody said they should give anyone thumbs up, just sit back and enjoy the show


    If Taliban do send anything to Kashmir then deal with it then

    Diplomacy is nice but you can't do diplomacy if a country is stuck in a civil war

    And Russian diplomacy will be completely useless and impotent if you have bunch of US assets egotripping and stirring the pot

    There can only be one top dog and sooner the pretenders are put down the sooner diplomacy can start working



    Junior and his daddy claimed to have what it takes but if they had then daddy would have been caliph of Kabul and Junior would have been El Presidente today

    But they don't and never did, they had top shelf advertising (especially daddy) but advertising is not what makes military leaders

    Daddy is worm food and once Junior joins him room will clear to start fixing this shitshow


    And I'm not saying that Russia should get involved

    Neither am I saying anything about said CIA assets at all. They are not that important in the grand scheme of things.

    What I am saying, I guess, is that Russia and Pakistan/China are not precisely on the same side here. Even if none of them have any love for the CIA.

    Pakistan would love to spread Islamism further into India, and this would suit China fine as well, tightening the screws on their regional rival. Neither do either of them care about any repercussions for Tajikistan and the emboldment of Islamists there.
    But for Russia, none of those scenarios bring anything good. Which means that the Taliban remain a risk factor. We simply don't know what their next actions would be after they've crushed the rebellion.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:08 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:...Then there's the factor of India as well and Russia can't really just screw them over by giving the thumbs up to Pakistan to do whatever they want in Afghanistan. The Taliban have already been indicating that they could send fighters to Kashmir next.

    The best solution would be a diplomatic one. Pakistan is not helping here.

    Nobody said they should give anyone thumbs up, just sit back and enjoy the show


    If Taliban do send anything to Kashmir then deal with it then

    Diplomacy is nice but you can't do diplomacy if a country is stuck in a civil war

    And Russian diplomacy will be completely useless and impotent if you have bunch of US assets egotripping and stirring the pot

    There can only be one top dog and sooner the pretenders are put down the sooner diplomacy can start working



    Junior and his daddy claimed to have what it takes but if they had then daddy would have been caliph of Kabul and Junior would have been El Presidente today

    But they don't and never did, they had top shelf advertising (especially daddy) but advertising is not what makes military leaders

    Daddy is worm food and once Junior joins him room will clear to start fixing this shitshow


    And I'm not saying that Russia should get involved

    Neither am I saying anything about said CIA assets at all. They are not that important in the grand scheme of things.

    What I am saying, I guess, is that Russia and Pakistan/China are not precisely on the same side here. Even if none of them have any love for the CIA.

    Pakistan would love to spread Islamism further into India, and this would suit China fine as well, tightening the screws on their regional rival. Neither do either of them care about any repercussions for Tajikistan and the emboldment of Islamists there.
    But for Russia, none of those scenarios bring anything good. Which means that the Taliban remain a risk factor. We simply don't know what their next actions would be after they've crushed the rebellion.

    Theory is that they will work with Taliban as best as they can, or at least work with people within the Taliban who would benefit Russia (intelligence) and just help Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fortify their borders and provide intelligence to counter islamists from gaining traction. Taliban has promised Russia to prevent islamists from movement to those borders. But Taliban cant be trusted obviously (and neither can Pakistan).

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    Sujoy
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    Post  Sujoy Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:13 am

    The only country that did some nation building in Afghanistan was the Soviet Union, certainly not NATO.

    But then Pakistan had to interfere to undo all the good work that the Soviets did.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:37 am

    Agree that if much larger economies and armies than Pakistan , failed to rule Afghanistan . That Pakistan with it's chaotic politics , a breeding ground for extremists and factionalist , supporting a bunch of tribal war lords  , engaged in tribal warfare , will in no doubt fail too . As will anyone giving blanket support to This Taliban group , such as the Mullas in Iran or the Chinese belt and Road builders .

    This means for anyone from the outside , jumping opportunistic fashion on the back of this mad Donkey , will fall off , with mud in their faces . Their power trip and hopes of " stability" through strength ( murder and genocide ) , will be short lived indeed .

    Minority rule , as propagated by imperialists , through support for non-democratic and anti-democratic religious reactionary right wing groups , composed of land lords and traders , in all these ME countries is leading to social and national conflict .

    A democratic revolution is needed  . To bring order . Only those on this path will have any chance of uniting their nations and bringing international order . Who is on the right side of history ? It is not the path of the physical belt and Road that unites . It is what message is carried along and who travels along it , that matters .
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    Post  Maximmmm Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:11 am

    I think this is still a far more hopeful moment for Afghanistan than we've seen in a long while. Yes there are major differences between neighboring states, but unlike past situations all sides are actually talking. And most of the states that are mentioned are part of the SCO which is coordinating talks in the background.
    Plus everybody has gotten to see what endless conflict gives you.
    My guess is that there will be major internal positioning of rival influence groups, but when it comes to overall stability of the state the SCO members will work to keep it viable.

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    medo
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    Post  medo Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:25 am



    https://mobile.twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1434764438192615434

    Talibans capture Panjshir capital city, ex-vice president Saleh escape with helicopter, some rumors are, that he escape to Tadjikistan. It's more or less over, Taliban won the war. Talibans are now hunting remaining groups of NRF in mauntains.
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    Post  GarryB Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:43 am

    Was there any reason why the Pakis stopped Iran oil and gas pipe through Pakiland to India , one where they could make money too ? I guess it has something to do with yank pressure . Cricket player deep thinker indeed .

    The US has many pressure points against Pakistan that it can use, and not all of them are direct.... like simply telling Saudi Arabia to stop helping Pakistan with money... just as an example... or telling them no more spare parts or support for their F-16s which would make them useless in months or weeks.

    There are no rebels in Afghanistan . Just tribes . And some heavily foreign indebted proxy terrorist forces , wanting to establish a fucked up tribal Paki Emirate . Idiots indeed .

    The group in the Panjshir valley under Massouds son are the rebels what ever they call themselves. Essentially there is them and the Taliban and ISIS.

    "......This Northern Alliance is just an Afghan faction made up of the same sort of men in the Taliban......" . No it is not . Read their web page and manifesto . True that some are ex-government , and feel romantic about yank presence . But that is what we get , by abandoning them , they are forced to ask help from France and co . Russia can make contract with Taliban conditional . Same with Iran . But they are not for peace .

    The northern alliance want to fight... there is no point in Russia or Iran or China negotiating some peace deal with the Taliban if the NA are not interested.

    China and Russia and Iran want peace because they want stability in the region... they don't benefit from eternal conflict there like the US does because eternal conflict allows them to grow poppies and poison Russia and Iran and the region.

    Time for Iran to act .

    And what exactly can Iran do about it?

    Invade Afghanistan?

    That should work out great... ask any country who came up with that brilliant idea before... they will have a good laugh.

    It is very unlikely that Al Quada and ISIS are on the same side as the Taliban.... they are just saying that to get support in the west... they would claim there were Chinese and Russian mercenaries in there too if they thought that would make a difference.


    The greater trap is doing nothing . The trap of being geographically cut off from China and central Asia , by Pakistan backed terrorists and extremists . Iran did not tolerate this in Iraq and Syria . Why should it tolerate in Afghanistan ? And I doubt that it will remain passive . They were already talking about setting up a front in Afghanistan . I think they should do this , help northern alliance and Tajik in defence of territory against offensives by Pakistan backed terrorists and Taliban . Supply defensive equipment . Rifles , mines , manpads and SAM . If Pakistan does not withdraw , then send special forces directly against them .

    Biggest mistake the Americans made was to refuse to include the Taliban as a group in Afghanistan that should have recognition.

    After they refused to talk with them the only way they could have fixed the situation is to completely exterminate the Taliban and they could probably only have achieved that by just killing everyone.

    If you pick this resistance and they are crushed there is no going back... and it looks like it is in a terrible situation with its back against a wall and limited exits that can easily be mined and have ambushes set up to kill anyone trying to supply them... that is a siege and the Taliban have all the time in the world... right now they can start setting up a government that includes everyone except the Northern Alliance and ISIS and no one could tell them off because the NA don't want to talk... they want to fight.

    Ironically the Taliban gave the US plenty of options as alternatives to invasion but they wanted to invade so they did...

    The Taliban is an extremist group , they are Pakistan proxy . In any dealings with them , Iran should make sure that the project benefits all of Afghans and not Talibs offensives and murders against other tribes . As for example they exchanged water for fuel . This benefits all of Afghans . So we oppose them where they go wrong . And reward them and all Afghans , where they go right .

    So you think US sanctions and pressure on Iran is a good thing... making you do the right thing by making the poor and the weak suffer and die... interesting... I thought such abuse would cure you of such stupidity.

    Using commercial relations for social engineering works both ways...

    No Afghan is not property of China . Iran can develop alone .

    No one person can dictate what happens here... Iran has cards and China has cards and Afghanistan has cards.

    If the Taliban cement their power and China establishes good ties, then what exactly is Iran going to do about that?

    Iran is doing great work in Syria helping the Syrians and killing ISIS and Kurds, but you were supported by Assad and Russian forces... you will be on your own if you want to go into Afghanistan... and the NA might be as much use to you as it was to US forces... and vice versa.

    [quote]Main weapon for Talibans in Panjshir were still tanks T-55 and T-62.
    [

    Simple and easy to fix and with a HE shell that does good damage to caves and bunkers...

    I really don't understand your position Nomadski... one second China is the biggest evil in the region and then next breath you are worried about losing Afghanistan and being cut off from China and Asia... so which is it?

    [quote]China controls Pakistan controls Taliban controls ISIS . Therefore China controls ( supports ) ISIS . LOL .

    That is just bollocks... 13 Americans were murdered during the airlift by ISIS... if there were any links at all to Pakistan or China you know who they would be bombing the crap out of.

    "Panjshir resistance leader says ready for talks with Taliban"

    That would be a good thing anyway... there is no need for more bloodshed.... this should be about the NA and Taliban... both Afghan groups celebrating finally kicking all those foreigners out of their country but there are still ISIS who are not Afghans either to go...

    BTW TL... Afghanistan is only impossible to conquer if you are not prepared to use nukes.

    Iran never started any "sectarian conflict", the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia are responsible for most of the sectarian conflict in the Middle East, why do you never call them out?

    Yes... if Iran is going to fix a country with serious problems... start with Saudi Arabia...

    I hope Afghanistan will find peace somewhere under the Taliban.
    Perhaps their way of rule is what Afghanistan needs.

    They were in control of Afghanistan from about 1996 til certain planes flew into certain buildings and America decided it had to act.

    Afghanistan will always be Afghanistan, we will never change that.

    I think there is hope for Afghanistan... but it has to be driven by Afghan people and not by outsiders wanting them to conform to their culture like the Americans try to make everywhere a carbon copy of the US.

    The British are not better, but the Soviets did try to take culture into account, but when there is good money from Saudi Arabia and the US to fight the Soviets you fight the Soviets.

    Not a fault of Chinese ancient culture but modern culture infecting the world .

    I have seen no evidence of China trying to impose its culture on the rest of the world... the world conflict is the west on one side that fights to keep the US in charge and everyone else down on the floor, and the BRICS countries including Russia and China who just want to do as they please without being forced to accept this or that law from Washington or Brussels about gays or sexual deviants. They don't want to run the place... they want to continue to develop any way they please without the west imposing sanctions and demanding freedom for this or that group etc etc.

    Taliban may rule with an iron fist, with Pakistan helping them, but I don't think there will be any lasting peace.

    The former president of the US is banned from Social Media in the US and no mention is allowed of checking vote counts for the last election... and there was a very long period where no criticism of Biden was tolerated... I think in many ways the Taliban are more open minded than many Americans are... I have already said the Americans would have crushed the Taliban if given the same chance the Taliban had... Ask the Iraqi military retreating from Kuwaite in Desert Storm... the US massacred them.

    I doubt that they expected this onslaught with the Pakistani forces clearly heavily involved. It looks like they misread the situation and are losing.

    In the short term with their strategy there was no chance of a solution that didn't involve them giving up and talking...

    Whether this is true or not.

    Pakistan is getting a bit too big for its shoes in Afghanistan, if they're sending in their own air force directly

    Someone should cut them down to size

    If they overstep their mark I rather suspect the Taliban will happily give them a bloody nose.

    UN should prevent Taliban's onslaught in Panjshir, negotiate political solution: Amrullah Saleh

    UN can't do diddly squat.

    Which means that the Taliban remain a risk factor. We simply don't know what their next actions would be after they've crushed the rebellion.

    The Taliban have been in charge before and when they were in charge they stopped the opium and they basically kept to themselves... which is exactly what Russia wants.

    and odds are the Taliban are going to be in charge of the country as much as anyone is in charge of that country... so they don't have to do much except wait and talk.

    But then Pakistan had to interfere to undo all the good work that the Soviets did.

    And the Saudis and Americans... the Chinese made a lot of money selling off cheap guns to the CIA that was passed to the Muj who pretended it was "captured"... problem was the afghan army didn't use Chinese versions of Soviet gear so when they showed 14.5mm HMGs firing at helicopters on Chinese gun mounts you knew they were talking shit about where they came from.

    Talibans capture Panjshir capital city, ex-vice president Saleh escape with helicopter, some rumors are, that he escape to Tadjikistan. It's more or less over, Taliban won the war. Talibans are now hunting remaining groups of NRF in mauntains.

    If he had surrendered they could have talked and a lot of Afghans on both sides would still be alive... but now they are dead and those Taliban will want revenge and those remaining NRF groups are going to suffer for it...
    medo
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    Post  medo Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:50 am

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434674271465492480

    Taliban takeover of Afghanistan - Page 32 E-l8e110

    NRF and India propaganda at best. A-10 from videogame is a proof of Pakistani UAV attacking NRF in Panjshir...
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:53 am

    Muslim Shirzad
    @MuslimShirzad
    ·
    28m
    Ahmad Massoud Audio Message:
    - People should rise up against Taliban and Pakistani elements.
    - The world should not be indifferent about Afghanistan.
    - Taliban have not changed but have become far more radical than in the past.
    - Leaders should compensate their mistakes.


    Muslim Shirzad
    @MuslimShirzad
    ·
    42m
    #BREAKING:
    Ahmad Massoud called on people across Afghanistan to rise up in a national uprising against the Taliban. Massoud said in a voice message that they would stand and fight.


    Panjshir Observer
    @PanjshirObserv
    ·
    9m
    New audio message from Ahmad Massoud says Resistance will continue to fight the Taliban and calls for general uprising across Afghanistan. SavePanjshir StandWithPanjshir


    Panjshir Observer Retweeted
    Resistance 2.0 🇦🇫 جبهه مقاومت
    @AFG_Resistance
    ·
    2h
    Last night we had to make a hard decision in the face of furious enemy attacks and depleted amunations. Make a last stand in Bazarak and risk the total elemination of our leadership or retreat to higher ground inorder to continue the resistance. We choose the latter.

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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:58 am


    Panjshir Observer
    @PanjshirObserv
    ·
    3h
    Taliban are in Bazarak, the provincial capital of Panjshir. Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh are both safe. NRF have pulled back to the surrounding mountains and vow to continue fighting. The world is silent as Pakistani drone strikes were crucial for Taliban's advance.



    Natiq Malikzada
    @natiqmalikzada
    ·
    1h
    The war continues fiercely in all parts of Panjshir. "It is terribly intense" said a resident of Panjshir from Khinj district.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:11 am


    Benjamin Pendleton
    @benyameenp
    ·
    21h
    Replying to
    @billroggio
    46 side valleys for the Taliban still to take. Guerrilla warfare. 9 Soviet incursions eventually failed, it ain't over yet. Depends in part on the extent of rebellions in the rest of the center and north of Afghanistan.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:14 am


    Ashish Sinha
    @Ashish_sinhaa
    ·
    3h
    #Afghanistan's vice president Amrullah Saleh reportedly leaves #Panjshir for Tajikistan.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:18 am


    Ashish Sinha
    @Ashish_sinhaa
    ·
    6h
    Ahmad Massoud is in #Tajikistan,local media said
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:23 am


    BILAL SARWARY
    @bsarwary
    ·
    3h
    #AFG Sources tell me that Fasihudin, the notorious TB commander from Badakhshan, was killed in Punjshir. He had the central role in managing the TB insurgency in Badakhshan & greater north eastern Afghanistan. If true this is a massive loss for the Taliban.

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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:09 am

    A spokesman for the NRF told the BBC that the province had not been captured, saying that the resistance 'continues to fight' the Taliban and are present in 'all strategic positions'.

    'The Taliban haven't captured Panjshir, I am rejecting Taliban claims,' NRF spokesman Ali Maisam said.

    The group also tweeted: 'The struggle against the Taliban & their partners will continue until justice & freedom prevails.'

    The Times published pictures of Panjshiri prisoners wearing American-made handcuffs in the province's Shotul district on Saturday even as the Taliban repeated assurances that they would give amnesty to any fighters who surrendered.

    The paper reported that Taliban beat a Panjshiri fighter found trying to escape, though another captured fighter was treated relatively well.

    The paper also said Taliban fighters smashed the equipment of a local television crew and mocked its staff.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9961657/Has-Afghan-resistance-fallen-Taliban.html




    'If one life is lost, the blood is on White House hands': Fury at State Department for 'delaying six flights out of Afghanistan carrying dozens of US citizens'

    Up to 1,000 people hoping to flee Afghanistan on six chartered flights have been barred from doing so, it was reported Sunday
    They traveled to Mazir-i-Sharif, 260 miles north of Kabul, with satellite images showing six airliners sat on its runway
    There is confusion over what exactly is causing the hold up, with a Republican Representative claiming the passengers were being held hostage by the Taliban
    But others said the US State Department was to blame, for refusing to confirm that it had cleared the flights for take-off, or banning them from landing
    Discussions are also said to be ongoing between the US, Taliban chiefs and Qatari officials, who are set to let the planes land in their country
    Other groups trying to organize their own chartered flights have also hit out at the State Department, with Rick Clay from private rescue firm PlanB claiming the organization is the only thing stopping him fulfilling his brief.

    Two other organizers have also torn into the Anthony Blinken-headed department, with one - who didn't give their name - telling Fox: 'This is zero place to be negotiating with American lives. Those are our people standing on the tarmac and all it takes is a f****ing phone call.


    Earlier on Sunday, Republican Representative Michael McCaul appeared on Fox News also blamed the Taliban for the ongoing delays at Mazar-i-sharif.

    His remarks - also reported by Reuters and the Times - claimed that six planes were being banned from taking off.

    The Texan lawmaker claimed the Islamist extremist group was using the jets and their passengers as a 'bargaining chip' in the hopes of its newly-victorious leadership gaining recognition from the US government.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9961433/State-Department-accused-blocking-1-000-people-including-Americans-leaving-Afghanistan.html
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:42 am


    Iran corners Pakistan, strongly condemns involvement in Panjshir operation in Afghanistan

    Sep 06, 2021, 04:11PM ISTSource: Times Now
    The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong warning to Pakistan over its involvement in the Panjshir operation in Afghanistan. Issuing a statement, Iran called the Taliban's military offensive 'truly worrying' and said that it would initiate a probe into Pakistan's role in the attack. Comdemning 'all foreign interference', Iran's foreign ministry

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/iran-corners-pakistan-strongly-condemns-involvement-in-panjshir-operation-in-afghanistan/videoshow/85974885.cms

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:59 am

    Panjshir has fallen. Pakistani F-16s and JF-17s bombing that area 24/7 made a big difference


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    Post  nomadski Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:16 am

    @ GarryB

    ".....So you think US sanctions and pressure on Iran is a good thing... making you do the right thing by making the poor and the weak suffer and die... interesting... I thought such abuse would cure you of such stupidity......."


    No I never said that . Sanctions against Iran are wrong , because Iran willing to compromise and find peaceful solution . And America never reward Iran for that . But any tribe with blood feud in Afghanistan , rejecting peace and opting for war , should be sanctioned for that specific crime . Taliban included . The NRF said they are willing to talk . But Taliban just grow Beards longer and shoot people .

    "......That is just bollocks... 13 Americans were murdered during the airlift by ISIS... if there were any links at all to Pakistan or China you know who they would be bombing the crap ........."

    No they knew 9-11 not work of Taliban but Saudi and CIA . But they bombed wrong people . The Afghan civilians . They also bombed civilians in retaliation for IS-k attack with Taliban knowledge and approval . China are not angels . It is good to build Roads and Rail and trade . But no good to bring private wars against India to Afghanistan and fight India there . Not any good to pick a cut throat strongman to provide security for you , one that butchers local population .


    "........Yes... if Iran is going to fix a country with serious problems... start with Saudi Arabia...."  

    To be honest Iranians must first fix own country political system . Make a Democratic Republic . Then approach other nations and set good example . They can not provide a truly progressive element in the world . Yes they are marginally better than Saudi state , but that is not great achievement .


    @ Cowboy daughter

    "....The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong warning to Pakistan over its involvement in the Panjshir operation in Afghanistan. Issuing a statement, Iran called the Taliban's military offensive 'truly worrying' and said that it would initiate a probe into Pakistan's role in the attack. Comdemning 'all foreign interference', Iran's foreign ministry......."

    Others interfere unjustly . Iran sits in admiration of  Taliban . No !  The northern alliance and Afghanistan need support . Practical support to defend own territory . Each tribe to be safe in own territory . Including pashtoon . Foreign troops to leave . Including Pakistan and China . If not send forces to drive out .

    @ Medo

    Good to see info on subject . The fog of war and all that . Fact finding mission important . But even if no direct Paki or China involvement , no doubt indirect involvement by Pakistan support of terror groups undeniable . against Iran also . We can not blame India here and confuse issue . Because it suits minority political interest group in Iran .


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_state-sponsored_terrorism


    Compare to :


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z9XNBbYiFJc

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:16 pm

    Afghan debacle cedes Eurasia to the dragon and bear
    By Spengler (David P. Goldman)
    “This is manifestly not Saigon,” said United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken as helicopters snatched fleeing Americans from the embassy roof in Kabul. It’s incomparably worse for America’s world standing. Like the fellow in the Sam Cooke song, Blinken doesn’t know much about history or geography. https://asiatimes.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2049a8663daea00bd30c32cf2&id=76d0b2a167&e=5455568640

    Taliban ripping apart on regional and ethnic lines
    By Salman Rafi Sheikh
    The Taliban’s lightning takeover of Afghanistan marked a clear and decisive victory against US, NATO and Afghan national forces. But now competitive Taliban factions are aggressively jockeying for key positions in the new government, a political contest that it is testing cohesion and threatens to erupt into new conflict as the economy teeters towards collapse. https://asiatimes.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2049a8663daea00bd30c32cf2&id=0f7e72e43c&e=5455568640

    Forget Panjshir – Taliban need inclusive government
    By M K Bhadrakumar
    China will not wade into the face-off in Panjshir, although its outcome would have some bearing on the security and stability of the Afghan-Tajikistan border, where China has been a provider of security in league with Tajik security in the most recent years. But the revolt doesn't have a chance as focus now is on the formation of an inclusive government in Kabul. https://asiatimes.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2049a8663daea00bd30c32cf2&id=764dd9f21f&e=5455568640

    There r different factions within the Taliban movement & they'll start fighting each other before long- I doubt those 17 recently killed in Kabul were hit by falling bullets from celebratory gunfire alone.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:39 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add links)

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    Sujoy
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    Post  Sujoy Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:43 pm

    Pakistan's end game in Afghanistan is to keep that country on the boil forever so that no Afghan clan, community can change the Durand Line because Afghanistan never accepted the Durand Line and had asked Pakistan to return Pashtun areas that Pakistan continues to occupy.

    So lasting peace in Afghanistan, with Pakistan still around is a pipe dream.

    In fact to further weaken Afghanistan, Pakistan might try to break up that country into 2-3 separate countries by sponsoring civil wars between various Afghan communities.

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    RTN
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    Post  RTN Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:21 pm

    Bombing an enemy in high altitude areas like the Panjshir Valley and forcing them to surrender is always difficult. The fact that Pakistani Air Force (PAF) was able to achieve this especially their F-16 pilots, proves how competent their Air Force is.

    India got a chance 2 years ago to bomb an alleged Pakistani militant hideout in a high altitude area and completely botched up.

    Maybe this is why PAF pilots are in such high demand even in Middle Eastern countries.
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    Post  nomadski Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:18 pm

    @ Sujoy

    I don't know who in Afghanistan or Pakistan might be seriously considering the joining of pashtun lands to own territory . Perhaps the pashtun themselves . But not other tribes . Since this pashtun unification will have severe consequences for both Afghanistan and Pakistan . Reducing each in territory . So if any official in either country is supporting it , either they are crazy or separatist .

    I agree that Pakistan politics aims to destabilise Afghanistan by supporting one tribe against another . As some kind of power play against India or Iran . But they will end up sacrificing their own territorial integrity , by over reach abroad .

    I read the Iranian newspapers , and  vast majority favour the NRF over Taliban . With the absolute minority audience against them . Comparing them to Iranian communists ! And saying they are at least better than Tudeh party ! This voice belongs to the reactionary right wing anti-democratic Bazzari element , favouring a religious dictatorship in Afghan , to support similar reactionary elements in Iran .

    The official position is that they favour a government of national unity for all Afghans . Nice words . But as you said , with Pakistan interference , this is not possible . Therefore to stop tribal conflict and partition , Pakistan must be brought under pressure . China too deeply depend on access road to port , and will not care too much what happens in near future in Afghanistan . Greatest problem for neighbouring states is lawlessness and refugees and drugs and terrorism . This will affect Iran most , but also central Asia and Russia .

    Therefore those most to loose by instability in Afghanistan can help protect Afghanistan from tribal war , by offering aid and also defensive measures . Iran may not act as leadership more  under control of right wing religious anti-democratic pro-Taliban  groups  , so it falls to Tajik and Uzbek and Turkmen and Russia ........again .

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:45 pm

    nomadski wrote:@ Sujoy

    I don't know who in Afghanistan or Pakistan might be seriously considering the joining of pashtun lands to own territory . Perhaps the pashtun themselves . But not other tribes . Since this pashtun unification will have severe consequences for both Afghanistan and Pakistan . Reducing each in territory . So if any official in either country is supporting it , either they are crazy or separatist .
    The thing is nomadski the acronym PAKISTAN only includes Punjab, Kashmir and Baluchistan. Even their founding fathers did not include Pashtun majority North West Frontier Province which Pakistan continues to occupy even to this day. But Pakistan today is confident that if they could hold onto these areas for the last 74 years, they can continue to hold onto Pashtun majority areas in the years to come, because the demand for returning Pashtun areas to Afghanistan is emanating from Pashtuns of Afghanistan and not from the Pashtuns of Pakistan. All that they need to do is keep Afghanistan weak: militarily and economically.

    Hell their current Prime Minister is also a Pashtun.

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:34 pm

    Sujoy wrote:Pakistan's end game in Afghanistan is to keep that country on the boil forever so that no Afghan clan, community can change the Durand Line because Afghanistan never accepted the Durand Line and had asked Pakistan to return Pashtun areas that Pakistan continues to occupy.

    So lasting peace in Afghanistan, with Pakistan still around is a pipe dream.

    In fact to further weaken Afghanistan, Pakistan might try to break up that country into 2-3 separate countries by sponsoring civil wars between various Afghan communities.

    what actually the pashtuns of Pakistan think of all these?
    i mean, do they consider themselves ethnic afghans or pakistanis? have they expressed the desire to get unified again with afghanistan?

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:57 pm

    https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/resistance-is-futile-why-panjshir-falling-to-the-taliban-is-inevitable-4172375.html

    Some holdouts will be there next spring, & the springs after that- until the Talibs' grip is weakened & outsiders start supporting them again.

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