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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:53 pm

    NATzO and its "open door" is propaganda posturing. As noted by other analysts, NATzO and the US gives itself the right to dictate which
    countries can form alliances. Right now we have the US demanding that Belorus and Russia do not engage in any integration processes.
    If countries have a right to install aggressive military assets of foreign alliances on their soil, then they have no right to bitch about threats
    when other countries make self-defense moves in response.

    Anyway, NATzO is a waste of air. Russia needs to make sure to deploy assets that will assure that every NATzO member will be glassed in
    under 5 minutes if they install any of their missile complexes in Banderastan. Naturally, this is not about Russia doing any first strikes but about
    a guarantee that NATzO will not survive if it decides to find a "solution to the Russia problem".

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:58 pm

    Again I will repeat, DPR and LPR have all they need to settle the contact line issues.

    Do I have to remind everyone here for example in battle for Palmyra against thousands of ISIS jihadists, Russia with only 2000 Syrian fighters launched an offensive that recaptured the Palmyra areas?

    Or the battle of aleppo, which had around 15,000 to 20,000 forces?

    It means DPR and LPR can launch multiple axes of advance with a frontline deployable force of 45,000 men, and a reserve that can grow as quick as the north wind can deliver with logistics by the voyentorg.

    So DPR and LPR can stage numerous advances throughout UKR front lines with relative ease.

    Slavyansk was not ceded due to impossibility to defend, Stavka ruled that it would be better to shorten lines of supply and decisively split the spine of UAF at the airport. It was better to conduct a urban operation here, then urban area and it will always be so, DPR won't raze Slavyansk to the ground, UAF is already good at doing that. DPR will face UAF in non populated areas outside of cities and settlements.

    In renewed fighting, DPR and LPR have an advantage over UAF which is staggering.

    In this context airpower is unnecessary, and so is direct Russian involvement except to contain NATO in defense of Belarus and the DPR/LPR.

    Syria was another animal and airpower was needed, UAF will not fight an insurgency like ISIS did, it's another culture and mental/psychological persuasion. So its unnecessary to level cities.

    Once they are defeated on the steppe, they wont fight in cities like chechens or isis did, they are not built in such a way.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:39 pm



    Classic

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:16 pm

    Volodimir likely some second generation Canadian offspring of western Polishified Ukrs who ran off with their
    Nazi allies at the end of WWII.

    Even their western backer mass media is admitting that the 125,000 Ukr "army" at the gates of Donetsk and Lugansk
    is demoralized and bogged down. And people here dismiss the Donbass defenders as irregulars.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:21 pm

    They can be even 500 000 they lack air force and air defence to protect themselves from the bombers.

    That would be like chiken shooting in a closed farm.

    Those soldiers won't fight. They will just run away. The yop heads will already be in the US with all the millions that was gifted to them by the US government.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:31 pm

    Right now we have the US demanding that Belorus and Russia do not engage in any integration processes.
    pl. post ur sources or don't twist facts: they just don't like Lukashenko still staying in power.
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    Post  LMFS Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:39 pm

    Russian PSYOPS in Kharkov Laughing

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    AZ-5
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    Post  AZ-5 Sun Jan 16, 2022 11:30 pm

    flamming_python wrote:It was only after 1917 that Great Russians were renamed to just Russians, and Russia came to mean just Great Russian lands; which was formed as the Russian Federal Soviet Socialist Republic. Accordingly, the Ukraine was formed as well, as a republic of the Little Russians. It's only fair that the Donbass should be considered part of the Ukraine, as well as the rest of the mainly Ukrainian-colonized regions during the Tsarist reign.

    OK but I'm sure if you ask the avg. local in these two separatist republics.. say give them a choice and they will self-identify as ethnic Russian rather than ethnic Ukrainian. I mean otherwise they would not wage full-scale separatist war. I know Maidan caused a lot of this, but this is beyond 2014 events. These guys don't buy into the whole Ukrainian sauce of the 90s.
    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:08 am

    LMFS wrote:Russian PSYOPS in Kharkov Laughing



    God Has spoken.

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    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:18 am

    I just dont see how poland could assist Ukraine when they are still throwing Bandera shit just to go remind them about east galicia and volyhynia. Its the equivalent of asking serbia to assist croatia waving Ustase related shit. Probably alot of friendly fire incidents might occur.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:51 am

    AZ-5 wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:It was only after 1917 that Great Russians were renamed to just Russians, and Russia came to mean just Great Russian lands; which was formed as the Russian Federal Soviet Socialist Republic. Accordingly, the Ukraine was formed as well, as a republic of the Little Russians. It's only fair that the Donbass should be considered part of the Ukraine, as well as the rest of the mainly Ukrainian-colonized regions during the Tsarist reign.

    OK but I'm sure if you ask the avg. local in these two separatist republics.. say give them a choice and they will self-identify as ethnic Russian rather than ethnic Ukrainian.  I mean otherwise they would not wage full-scale separatist war. I know Maidan caused a lot of this, but this is beyond 2014 events. These guys don't buy into the whole Ukrainian sauce of the 90s.

    They will say we're both Slavs and there's no difference or that we're one people.

    And stop with the separatist war stuff. Maybe by now, they've disassociated with the Ukraine mentally and do want to leave them behind forever. In which case it would be more a Taiwan situation.

    The Ukrainian nation is really not too well defined and that was one of the reasons for the nationalists being as extreme as they are, including with their Ukrainization policies and hate towards everything Russian.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:54 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem with that logic is, the majority of Ukraine wants to join NATO the ones who don't are the small minority you are being dishonest by suggesting the masses of Ukraine don't, this public mood you speak of only exists in the heavy russian populated areas.

    So I have no idea why you are being disingenuous by trying to state the Ukrainian people are against it, the West and Central areas of Ukraine and some of the eastern sections not that close to the Russian border are anti-russian, to be clear they hate the russians.

    If Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO there is only one way to prevent that, invasion. At this stage sooner or later Ukraine is getting into NATO.

    The question is will russia seize the entire country or only the areas on the east side of the river, I get Putin doesn't WANT to do this but he is aware its going to come down to that.

    Absolute rubbish, and what would you know about it?

    The clown president inviting NATO in would also be viewed only as an attempt to secure his power

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:04 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem with that logic is, the majority of Ukraine wants to join NATO the ones who don't are the small minority you are being dishonest by suggesting the masses of Ukraine don't, this public mood you speak of only exists in the heavy russian populated areas.

    So I have no idea why you are being disingenuous by trying to state the Ukrainian people are against it, the West and Central areas of Ukraine and some of the eastern sections not that close to the Russian border are anti-russian, to be clear they hate the russians.

    If Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO there is only one way to prevent that, invasion. At this stage sooner or later Ukraine is getting into NATO.

    The question is will russia seize the entire country or only the areas on the east side of the river, I get Putin doesn't WANT to do this but he is aware its going to come down to that.

    Absolute rubbish, and what would you know about it?

    The clown president inviting NATO in would also be viewed only as an attempt to secure his power

    Not rubbish at all that's the facts, I have no idea why you are suddenly trying to claim Ukrainian masses do not want to join NATO. It's a silly thing to say, Do keep in mind I was clear. The Russian friendly Ukrainians aren't the majority they are a small small minority and in this case we are going by the WHOLE country, not the smaller population whose views align with your own.

    So again you are being heavily dishonest by suggesting the MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS aren't in favor of joining NATO when they infact are.
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:13 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem with that logic is, the majority of Ukraine wants to join NATO the ones who don't are the small minority you are being dishonest by suggesting the masses of Ukraine don't, this public mood you speak of only exists in the heavy russian populated areas.

    So I have no idea why you are being disingenuous by trying to state the Ukrainian people are against it, the West and Central areas of Ukraine and some of the eastern sections not that close to the Russian border are anti-russian, to be clear they hate the russians.

    If Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO there is only one way to prevent that, invasion. At this stage sooner or later Ukraine is getting into NATO.

    The question is will russia seize the entire country or only the areas on the east side of the river, I get Putin doesn't WANT to do this but he is aware its going to come down to that.

    Absolute rubbish, and what would you know about it?

    The clown president inviting NATO in would also be viewed only as an attempt to secure his power

    Not rubbish at all that's the facts, I have no idea why you are suddenly trying to claim Ukrainian masses do not want to join NATO. It's a silly thing to say, Do keep in mind I was clear. The Russian friendly Ukrainians aren't the majority they are a small small minority and in this case we are going by the WHOLE country, not the smaller population whose views align with your own.

    So again you are being heavily dishonest by suggesting the MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS aren't in favor of joining NATO when they infact are.

    It's not about being Russian-friendly it's about wholesale signing off the sovereignty of the country and suddenly having all these foreign forces on your territory, with their missile bases and whatever else.

    The majority of Ukrainians are pretty neutral. 'Моя хата с краю'. Too neutral, which has allowed the situation in the Donbass to go on, but that's just my opinion. The majority of Ukrainians don't have work in their country and millions of them go to Russia for work as well as to Europe.

    The majority of Ukrainians, have at every stage, voted for the candidate which favours making peace with the Donbass, and with the exception of 2014 - improving relations with Russia. Yuschenko did not favour improved relations with Russia, but he was only installed by a revolution/coup.
    Even the same Poroshenko in his 2014 election campaign, was saying that he would end the war and come to a deal. Zelensky said the same thing during his election campaign, only for him to betray his electorate.

    No-one wants war but the entrance of the forces of the nations of the same once Nazi-coalition that invaded the Soviet Union, including very much the Ukraine, will be very uncomfortable, for that same majority of Ukrainians.

    And again, I challenge you to find me evidence of all these pro-NATO Ukrainians.

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    d_taddei2
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    Post  d_taddei2 Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:50 am

    Let me put my experience into the fray. Been to Ukraine many times and many Ukrainian friends. And when I have asked them a series of questions on this topic. Only one said he wanted Ukraine to join NATO. Majority don't want to join NATO, however they all want to join the EU. They said that they have friends from the east from Crimea from Russia, and don't want things to escalate. The Ukrainians want EU living and job opportunities but want to be friends with its neighbours, and majority said they have more in common with Russians than they do to EU countries. So put it in short NATO is a no EU is a yes.

    Also to point when I was in Kiev a pro neo nazi group marched along the street and locals actually chased them away saying we don't want this crap. And to be honest looking at the group most were knuckle draggers with zero brain.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:08 am

    d_taddei2 wrote:Let me put my experience into the fray. Been to Ukraine many times and many Ukrainian friends. And when I have asked them a series of questions on this topic. Only one said he wanted Ukraine to join NATO. Majority don't want to join NATO, however they all want to join the EU. They said that they have friends from the east from Crimea from Russia, and don't want things to escalate. The Ukrainians want EU living and job opportunities but want to be friends with its neighbours, and majority said they have more in common with Russians than they do to EU countries. So put it in short NATO is a no EU is a yes.

    Also to point when I was in Kiev a pro neo nazi group marched along the street and locals actually chased them away saying we don't want this crap. And to be honest looking at the group most were knuckle draggers with zero brain.

    Exactly

    Everyone wants free money from the EU. No-one wants the obligations that come with it - which is NATO, officially or unofficially.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:13 am

    You feel that way they do not, which is a common theme for people on this forum, they think their feelings are represented by the people. You can type 13 pages of why you feel that way but that's not represented by the masses.

    They are not neutral and they have voted for the guy who has favored aligning with the west double for going towards the EU.

    Has for facts various polls done within Ukraine well as demonstrations by the people in it.

    West and Central pro NATO and EU

    Eastern Sides on russia boarder, pro russia and the eastern sides kinda between those two areas are on the fence bu total pop wise there is many more in favor vs against

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    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:02 am

    Russia will of course get the blame.... as they should. Geopolitical rivals don't play nice. Just so happens Russia's geopolitical rivals control world opinion to a much greater degree than Russia can. Russia adjudicated similar power when it dissolved the USSR. Now it can't cry wolf. "Suck it up".

    You are not paying attention... Russia is essentially saying if you want to work with us you need to respect our fears and our security concerns.... if you don't care and just want to bully us then there is nothing more to talk about.

    Considering that brand new attitude... do you honestly think they will care what the west says any more about anything at all?

    It is OK... the leadership of western countries are not paying attention either....

    What are the Americans supposed to say? "We did it"

    Yeah... again... you don't get it... no matter who does it... if the provocation works and Kiev responds with something stupid then Russia is going to act... Just like in Georgia where VDV forces were shelled by Georgian troops and then South Ossetia being invaded and shelled and then pushed out by Russian forces responding to the attack which was all widely blamed on Russia at the time though later proven they were responding and not acting out.

    Russia is going to crush Kiev forces which may include attacks throughout the Ukraine against anything they see as a threat, so communications, HQs, weapon stores, fuel dumps, ammo supplies, power sources, armour formations, air power, naval power... they might choose to neutralise it in different ways... ie render it harmless or destroy it all... I suspect certain units will get special treatment...

    They are not going to invade, in fact there might not be many Russians on the ground at all, because the people in the Donbass include ex military people too... a factor of conscription BTW... many didn't run away to Russia or the EU for a better life... in fact I would think there would be a few who gravitated there to get some revenge over Ukrainian support for incidents in Georgia and Chechnya in the recent past...

    The Germans are holding the project hostage for the sake of the anti-Russian project in Ukraine. That should tell you all you need to know about German intentions, German geopolitical designs and German priorities if you didn't knew it already cause of ignorance of geopolitics

    Honestly I feel sad for the German people that the German government is so happy to shoot its own economy in the face just to please gas companies in the US... and i look forward to reading about excuses about it all being Russias fault for not sending free gas when they could build up storage levels in Europe even though there is no contract or payment for them to do so.

    Normally I would say... silly Russia... denying yourself income at such a time... but in this case the EU are being fools, and yet still Russia tries to accommodate them.

    A new pipeline to China is the best solution all round so Germany and the EU can blame Russia for destroying their production capacity by not selling them cheap gas, and Russia can sell gas to China who wants to grow and develop and pay a fair price for energy... everybody wins... except for EU citizens... which you are clearly not.

    The Germans see the Eurasian Economic Union, the CSTO, and the Union State as mortal threats to their European Union construct. There can ONLY be one dominant power and suprastate structure in Europe.

    Russia has been offering to become part of a super Eurasian state with Europe, but they rejected it and rejected Russia... Russia is not going to accept that and just shrivel up and die, they are going to look for alternatives... I am pretty sure Russia has all but lost interest in Europe except collecting transfer fees for goods crossing its land sea and air borders to Asia and back.

    Germany wins... if they can keep the lights on.

    The Germans have fought 2 world wars over it only to finally achieve their aims in peace time on the corpse of the Russian empire (Soviet Union) through deceit, the vacuum left by the Soviets, and a few bloody cadavers (Yugoslavia).p

    Bullshit... WWI had nothing to do with living space in the east.

    Look up at the map of former Yugoslavia (how many EU member states?) The Germans won't give it up without a fight nor run away from a fight. So when it came time for action, a pre-emptive strike on Ukraine happened (the coup), and the Germans, with the EU membership plan was there for it. When they "lost" on the money side, the coup happened. It's dirty, hard nosed realpolitik. The counter answer should have been hard nosed action by Russia as well... since it was an unconstitutional coup but Putin chickened out and settled for little pieces in Crimea and the Donbass to show his displeasure. Weak shit.

    Putin didn't want the rest... what is the rest? Motor Sich and Antonov and the Nikliaev shipyards... all broken and in ruins and no doubt wanting money to restore them to making Soviet level crap.

    Germany can have it.

    Russia doesn't even want the Donbass, they just wont stand by while another country commits real genocide on their border... ironic the west is missing that...

    But what would they know about right and wrong, human rights, human decency?

    31 million killed by civilised moral Europe...

    The Germans will fight Russia for European primacy again, and again.

    Then they have won... pretty sure when HATO and the US say they wont guarantee anything that Russia is going to walk away from Europe in terms of their future plans... I hope they enjoy their prize.

    That's why they find common ground with the Americans, who honestly share a lot with them culturally, and genetically, much more than with Russia (Anglo saxons after all - not to mention Germans migrations to the U.S early on, and post WW2).

    Yeah, I agree... thin veneer of morals and ethics, hiding massive depths of ruthless bastard... the Germans showed it in Russia and the Americans showed it to the Japs... and the Middle East... and the native Americans.


    The message from the Germans to Russia is simple: Strategically immolate yourself on Ukraine by doing nothing and taking it up the ass.... thus effectively dropping your dreams of expansion Westward (nipping the Eurasian Union in the bud) or you won't get our Gas money.

    Russia had no dreams of annexing Ukraine... taking back the Crimea was a gift from the inept west, but they don't want the rest and the rest didn't want them either. Russia didn't want to expand, she just wanted good trade relations with the west and to keep her independence... but that is what the EU really hated... they didn't do as they were told... not by us the older brother, and not by dad over in the US... so they demanded they be banished to the naughty table... Russia is now in the process of saying FU.

    Amusing you mention that the family has problems with incest... would add inbreeding too.

    The Germans obviously figure, sooner or later in their transition towards a "green energy mix" that the pipeline will be worthless geopolitically speaking. "We are the dominant power in Europe and the EU is the dominant suprastate" - very simple.

    Not at all, there were plans to pump hydrogen through it at one point... but I am sure all their alternative arrangements for energy will mean Germany will have such an abundance they can use it to produce their own hydrogen gas... without burning too much coal to do so.


    If today the Germans can take the hit, tomorrow the hit will be even less in their own calculus. The EU project however, it has to be there tomorrow - 10/20/30 years from now for them. Priorities are clear. There should be no illusions to this in the Kremlin or elsewhere.

    Russia knows Germany isn't going anywhere, but they also know there is the rest of the world out there to trade with and the sooner they start going that way the sooner they will start moving forward and being positive.

    Trading with countries that want to trade.


    With so much propaganda written on the matter by both sides the commentariat is obviously garbage as to German's play since they keep it quiet.... smartly..... and let the U.S take the Russian propaganda heat. Russia does a massive disservice in their propaganda to picture Germany as a country held hostage by U.S diktats. It's anything but a self-serving state.

    Germany is not the victim, they are making their own choices, which is why Russia is not particularly keen to talk to either the EU or HATO, because it really only makes sense to talk to the US... and when that leads no where then they know they have done everything they could and to give up trying to please the west.

    Russia always had options, including the option of taking the hit on the coffers and fucking the EU and Ukraine over, and not indirectly financing its own enemies. But clearly the Gazprom lobby won that battle by promising that this deal (NS2) would fix it. Well I got news for you. NS2 hasn't fixed shit. Not only that, the Germans are holding it hostage and laughing at your face while they do it. Deceit complete. Failed policy metastasized. Time wasted, precious time. If Russia wants it badly, they know what is expected of them to do...

    Russia has done everything it could not to be the bad guy... cannot say the same for any other parties to this situation. The Ukraine is the least dirty simply because of their position they really have little choice, which is why gas is going that way even if some disappears.

    The irony of calling Putin a killer is lost on most westerners because he prefers to talk and leaves war as the last option because he is not a killer.

    Obviously sometimes you have to kill to save lives... in Syria Russia is helping killing quite a few people... very few of which are innocent... many of which the world is better off without.

    The wests eagerness for economic sanctions and war betray its pretence for caring about people.

    Ruthless bastards.

    It is good that Russia is finally seeing sense and turning to the rest of the world...

    It is funny though... I mention what bastards western countries are and you respond by pointing out how clever they are or how silly Putin has been for putting up with their shit.

    Hilarious you think his humanity makes him weak... it is his humanity that makes him better than all the western leaders combined, and is why Russia as a country is doing so well despite taking on the entire western world... it was something the Soviet Union and all of Eastern Europe and the Eastern Bloc failed to do in 50 years...

    The Americans don't play these games. Their LNG is going to China. **** the EU. Putin and his cadre are simply fools in this regard, no other word to describe their little self-important games of "courting" Germany backfiring on them. And the Germans making the most of it obviously. You don't say no to a begging dog.

    But of course they are... when Russian gas is no longer available in Europe in the quantities they need it to grow then the prices will go up and the US will be there with its more expensive freedom gas.... this was about making their product more price competitive and pushing up world prices... but right now they don't want Russia to make money selling gas so all this bullshit to keep tensions high... yet even that is not working because Gazprom is making good profits, which is the core of the US problem with the situation... but the basic business fact is that theirs costs are lower so they will continue to make money even when the prices are not great for them.

    Lol you can dream of it, as can the Kremlin. "From Lisbon to Vladivostok".

    That dream is dead and everyone involved knows it... I am honestly glad the US drove a wedge between the EU and Russia and I hope the problems remain as long as the US is the mouthpiece and brain behind the EU.

    America is going to lose interest in the Ukraine and the EU wont be interested in footing the bill to fix them... and I expect they are raising the stakes to try to get either Zelensky or Putin to make a mistake that commits Russia to fixing everything for them or at least taking the blame for everything... and Putin is too smart to fall for their trap... and when Zelensky is gone at the next election I rather suspect a few oligarchs will realise there is no money in the west, and their only two options going forward is more poverty or the chance to relax hostility to Russia and open trade links and start working again... but I really don't think Russia will just accept them back like nothing happened and because of their pride I don't think Kiev is going to admit it made a mistake and did a lot of criminal things that weren't internationally acceptable, but they got away with because of the blind support of the west.

    Either way soon that gas from those gas fields that was going to the EU will soon be heading to a factory in China so the gas is going to get sold either way.


    That grip is only giving away once the empire collapses.

    Neither are going to collapse totally.... just like Russia was never going to stay down forever... but whereas Russia is now looking for global expansion in terms of trade and relations, the west is going to shrink and probably needs to have a good think about its so called values and how it uses them as a weapon when it should be using them as a guide to their own actions and behaviour.

    They know they are wrong when they admit they need to talk to Russia from a position of strength.. strength in negotiations is about being able to force and manipulate the other party into doing something against their interests... bullying or blackmail but not negotiation.

    And Germany will for sure challenge Russia on European primacy.

    It is like Kiev... I honestly don't think Russia is even interested in it. They wanted a partnership and was rejected... now they will move on and look elsewhere... the west has proven it can't be trusted so agreements wouldn't be much good even if they signed any, but as they are not even signing anything then there is clearly no will for compromise so there is nothing to discuss.

    Some folks don't just get it. Others refuse to get it due to mental conditioning. Others get it but the need to propagandize and play fool is what's expedient for them.

    Amusing that you are hearing the same things from the Russians yet reading them completely differently.

    Perhaps the difference is you think they are doing what you would be doing and are just like you but they aren't.... they aren't angels, but nor are they devils either.

    You say Russia can wait as if time and tolerance for poor policies are still the answer to the problem. History isn't kind to this sort of thinking. It never is.

    You are the one saying the policies are bad... because you don't understand the game they are playing.... through Putins time in power there has been cooperation with the west... Russia lost so much and had so much to work back to, and for periods the west helped them out.... from German combat training centres they started and didn't complete because of sanctions... they were completed and then duplicated for each military region BTW... to French thermal imager technology and other technology bought and paid for with licence production agreements, but there were setbacks, they had to learn to make the stuff the Ukraine used to make for them... they are still waiting for engines to replace and upgrade their transport aircraft fleet, but once the engines are ready everything should kick off fine... the point is that they have had 20 years to grow and develop themselves, their imports have reduced to the point where they are quite independent for many things including food for the first time really, and of all the trials and tests they have done everything they could to accommodate the west, but they have never had any respect... they even allowed equipment and material to travel through Russia to support HATO operations to Afghanistan... not as a chance to steal technology or for blackmail, but because they genuinely wanted Afghanistan to get better, and you threw it in their faces.

    Well now Russia has realised that there are only more sanctions and unfounded accusations with the west.... either back the **** up and start showing some respect. Negotiate, don't lecture or dictate or give ultimatums... and this is not an ultimatum... no force will be applied, you can do what you want... but if you can't treat them with respect and respect their interests and security concerns then there is nothing to talk about... the door will likely be closed and Russia will look to the rest of the world for trade and relations.

    That is the game being played right now and the US is screwing it up.

    It comes down to the US because the EU and HATO do as they are told... no respect left there from Russia now... and soon none for the US either.

    No one should care about what hit the EU is taking.

    It is good for Russia... makes EU products less competitive... makes setting up production in Russia more attractive to disillusioned EU companies who realise they are being sold out by EU leaders to US interests.

    What matters is what Russia is losing in opportunity cost and how much geopolitical restraint they've exercised to see this project succeed. Restraint that should have never taken place if the project wasn't given so much importance.

    Germany will still be there in five years and if their people have not changed government or attitude then another 5 years will be fine too.

    You're factually wrong. Just cause you repeat the propaganda talking point over and over, and damage control saying "it's not a big deal" "everything will be okay" "it's not ideal but but but..." won't make you correct.

    It is a German project in the sense that it is for Germany... it does not benefit Russia that much, it makes Russian gas cheaper for Germany and allows them to earn money selling to other EU countries.

    It's was/is a joint Russian/German project from the very beginning where extensive Russian political capital has been spent and geopolitics is playing a massive role. The BS meter is at an all time high on that little nugget.

    it is completed and ready to go... a political delay of 6 months or three years just means Germans will wait longer to get cheaper gas from it... why should Russia care?

    You don't know what Russia is going to do or how Russia will respond to a provocation in the Donbass. A Georgia 2.0 OP is an invasion, although limited. There is no technical semantical wiggle room.

    The west called the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia and the shelling of a VDV peacekeeper base and the South Ossetian Capital Russian aggression... who gives a **** what the west calls it.

    The enemy, that is the U.S and the EU poodles have fully prepared for it, and studied the Georgian OP to completely neutralize any potential strategic benefit for Russia of doing it

    And of course they will be so successful like they have been in the past.

    Are these the same minds that murdered an Iranian general and who just took the response of a ballistic missile attack on the nose.... helpless cowering in bunkers?

    Such an op won't shake the chessboard, just like Georgia hasn't become a friendly state to Russia with a friendly elite.

    Russia does not want Kiev... never did... or it would have declared the coup illegal... which it was... and promised to return the rightful leadership to power... which they haven't. There has been no Russia friendly government in Kiev for 30 years and no likelyhood of one in the future.

    It does not solve the problem, it merely freezes it and creates dividing lines that the enemy is happy to live with.

    Russias economy is doing well, new weapons are entering service and things are actually looking good... why should they care about the wests problem in the Ukraine?


    It better be something else with a surprise factor at the very least. You don't keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result....

    I am sure they would be happy with the same result.

    In Georgia, Russia had losses too... not sure what the response to that angle is.

    They lost many good men, which is why I think they wont bother trying to roll in to Kiev...


    NATO knows what it's doing.

    Of course it does... how was Afghanistan BTW... I hear it is lovely this time of year... winter wonderland...

    Syria is in taters and effectively divided with almost 2/3s of the country outside Damascus control, completely neutralized in the geopolitical chessboard as a functioning piece.

    The US and Turkish held areas are in tatters, the Russian and Iranian supported areas are building new roads and fixing things and trying to get back to normal.

    Ukraine has been prevented from falling into the Russian orbit,

    Ukraine was not even interested in being in the Russian orbit, they would have accepted investment and been very ungrateful about it and increased rents for Crimea every chance they got...

    Western actions saved the Crimea from a fate worse than stagnation.

    and into the Eurasian Economic Union, CSTO and as a potential Union State candidate, as well as providing destabilizing and and Anti-Russian activity on its Western periphery. Not to mention serving as fuel for anti-Russian sentiment in NATOland as well as an excuse to use it as a weapon for economic war (by design).

    Hahaha and I am sure they will flourish and grow with EU handouts, but Russian stability is not directly effected a lot by the Ukraine really, it has always been hostile... and anti Russian sentiment in europe will mean nothing soon enough.

    NATO knows exactly what they're doing. They knew exactly what they were doing when they said "Fvck NO" to Putin's security proposals. All the propaganda from Russia that these people are incompetent compared to their Russian counterparts, foolish etc only mask the fact that it's Russia who's fighting to straighten out what they claim is their own sphere of influence, it's Russia that's backed up against the wall, and it's Russia that is unable to deal with this decisively. So who are the real incompetents?

    The countries being led by the nose by a country with Biden in power and soon the Orange one will return... or if he is not allowed to... let the games begin...

    By then HATO and teh US will have given Russia a definitive no so why not dabble in a little colour revolution.... Twisted Evil when the opportunity presents itself and lets face it.... they will be accused of it anyway....

    And moreover they know exactly what the Russians may try to do. Including gaming a full invasion of Ukraine, and responses to it by the NATO block. That's what folks are paid to do. Just like there are plans to nuke all of Russia, well archived.

    HATO have already said they would not get directly involved if Russia attacked without provocation, so I rather doubt they would get involved to stop Zelensky doing something stupid.

    God knows Russia needs people for such a vast untapped territory.

    God has given Russia such neighbours... there is no god.

    A Russian passport should at the very least be much easier for those people to acquire, MUCH MUCH easier.

    Their core problem was the filth that arrived in the 1990s pretending to help but in effect looting and killing peoples futures... the last thing they need is more pollution telling them the west is right and the west is how you do things and why don't you think the way the west has conformed my brain to make me think.

    Localized programs like those in the Donbass should be universal across the board, to include the Baltics, and all post-Soviet states including diaspora in the EU, U.S and elsewhere since the majority are economic migrants, not ideological stalwarts of the American/EU oligarchic class.

    They left... let them be. If they want to find out the truth they can... there is the internet... and if they don't then they are no loss because those interested in money and an easy life are too high maintenance.

    A comprehensive strategy and plan to populate the Fart East and Central Russia needs to be crafted,

    Will it still be the Fart east when all the gas is gone?

    Twisted Evil

    The Americans got it done. It can be done.

    The American path has a pretty clear destination that probably does not suit any other country but America... we can't all be super bitches.


    Crimea was carefully wrestled away from Ukraine with active Russian participation and cooperative locals - planned and gamed.

    Not at all.... the better offer was made and accepted.... it was sour grapes from the west that knocked all the pieces off the board on to the floor.... it was the crimean pieces that realised this was their chance to make a change and they did it. Putin and Russia could not have done what they did without the full support and cooperation of the people in the Crimea.

    And that is why I am saying the Donbass is not completely Russias problem... they don't want to be Russian or part of Russia... they want Russian protection and Russian assistance, but at best they want independence... because the other thing they would accept would be reparations and apologies and reconstruction from Kiev and of course the right to speak Russian if they want.... and they are not going to get any of that for the current or any foreseeable regime that could make it to power in Kiev.

    Likewise for the Donbass - where do supplies come from? thin air? Those regions would have been brought under Kiev control had the Russian hand not been involved at all. So no hahahahahahhahahha. It was clear in Odessa what happens when the Russian hand is missing - compliance to Kiev through force.

    Russia was happy to trade with the Ukraine... even if it accepted the EU deal by choice... it is the Ukraine that is cutting off ties, but they are not going to invade to protect Ukrainians because they are not Russians... and they are not asking for help.

    Pretty sure that's categorically false. You don't organize a referendum on independence and joining Russia without knowing exactly the outcome beforehand.

    It was the Crimeans that organised most of it.... stopping groups trying to arrive from the Ukraine and making sure army and police units on the island stayed in their barracks and did not poke their heads out... they consider themselves Russian and after seeing the bullshit that was happening in the rest of the Ukraine they knew their future path... they had already voted to leave the Ukraine about three times already in the past since 1991 and Kiev always said no so it was always likely to get the right result.

    There was coordination. Not to mention the little green man.

    Course there was but even the most polite green man can't arrive at a location and have the local police and army units stand down and do nothing... except if the population was organised and wanted them there....

    Make believe propaganda that it all happened expontaneously is as much bullshit as the Kiev Maidan being an spontaneous people's coup, and not an American/German color revolution.

    The opportunity couldn't have been planned in advance... unless they knew the west planned to overthrow the government when they took the better offer.

    It might have been that they knew and therefore planned to create chaos in the Ukraine to try to get Crimea back but you keep saying Putin is an idiot, so doesn't lucky fool fit your views better than 6th dimension chess champion...

    In comparison a lot of people had to be set up as matyrs and openly murdered for the western plot to work... whereas the Crimean plot seemed to be spontaneous and even natural... of course that being about their 3rd or 4th referendum on the matter added to all the bullshit happening in the Ukraine at the time I think the decision was quite logical... and time has only proven them to be more right.

    That the people in Crimea had a natural yearning to become Russian citizens and become part of Russia again is another thing entirely.

    They did... and that is why it was all so smooth and easy... they did most of the hard work themselves... they knew who would be on their side to help them and who would try to stop it all and it was pretty clear they were successful at keeping arms out of the hands of the latter to hand over to polite green men for the formalities.


    War is war. In Georgia there were casualties. Ukraine is a much bigger territory that will require more resources and a more comprehensive approach.

    Russia has drones now and can do everything they did before from the air without risking laser target marking teams on the ground...

    They also have home game advantage...

    Ukraine is being groomed for a sacrificial act by those who have had time to study the Russian response in Georgia fully.

    That they will throw the Ukraine under the bus was never in doubt to anyone except the Ukrainians... will be interesting to hear how it is all Putins fault for letting them be fooled by the west and not saving them.

    Boastful propaganda about how easy and simple it will be is just more make-believe feel good fairy tales.

    If you had said this was going to happen before Syria I would have been nervious... but the Russian military know what they are doing, and HATO forces are a mess and have already said they wont get involved even if Russia invades... the promise is sanctions...

    So even HATO don't think they can do anything.

    The fact that Russia has avoided like a plague doing anything tells you all you need to know, no matter the poker face they present to their sheep, the spin and the narratives that flow from the Kremlin toilet down to the thought leaders for dissemination to plebs.

    They are not the aggressors... so far they have been responding to aggression.... but now something new... I don't think it will be any attack or invasion, but it might be openly equipping and training the Ukrainians in the Donbass like HATO does with Kievs troops... there is enormous scope for a small force like the Donbass for using drones against an enemy that has poor AD...

    White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the U.S. has intelligence that suggests Russia is “fabricating a pretext for invasion” in Ukraine. This comes as the U.S. and Russia sustain diplomatic talks over the future of Ukraine and Russia’s aggression toward its neighbor.

    How can they keep claiming Russia is being the aggressor if it is not acting like the US or HATO would... but of course the accusations are false.

    They say but let's be clear, there is already a lot of discontent among nato states and many to most are not interested in Ukraine joining NATO. US ultimately doesn't either on grounds that they know they can neither defend or enforce Ukraine.

    I would say it was certain Ukraine is not joining HATO or the EU because existing members have to be unanimous and I can't see them all agreeing on such a thing.

    Poland might not approve because it would take away their front line basket case status that gets them free money...


    The problem with that logic is, the majority of Ukraine wants to join NATO the ones who don't are the small minority you are being dishonest by suggesting the masses of Ukraine don't, this public mood you speak of only exists in the heavy russian populated areas.

    But it is HATO... it doesn't matter what they want... it could be 99% against but still enter because the government signed the papers and made it law.


    So I have no idea why you are being disingenuous by trying to state the Ukrainian people are against it, the West and Central areas of Ukraine and some of the eastern sections not that close to the Russian border are anti-russian, to be clear they hate the russians.

    I rather suspect he is ignoring the nazis that are actively supporting Kiev and is actually talking about the other areas under threat of murder and genocide and districts around them in the Ukraine...

    If Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO there is only one way to prevent that, invasion. At this stage sooner or later Ukraine is getting into NATO.

    Lots of things happen that Russia does not like... that does not mean they are invading lots of countries.

    The question is will russia seize the entire country or only the areas on the east side of the river, I get Putin doesn't WANT to do this but he is aware its going to come down to that.

    They don't want any of it. They want it to talk with it regions and sort something out to solve the military standoff, but they don't want to expand the empire.

    Why is this such a hard concept to grasp?

    We aren't talking about that, You suggested they weaponize the gas and I stated for them that would be a stupid idea.

    It is stupid at the moment because there are no practical alternatives for that gas field... but in 5 years time when a new pipe is connected up then they are free to sell to whom they please.

    Will Germany have redeemed themselves in the eyes of Russia by then?

    I doubt it.

    Naturally, this is not about Russia doing any first strikes but about
    a guarantee that NATzO will not survive if it decides to find a "solution to the Russia problem".

    I suspect Russia will take measures to ensure their own security that wont involve any invasions, and then turn their back on Europe and the US.

    OK but I'm sure if you ask the avg. local in these two separatist republics.. say give them a choice and they will self-identify as ethnic Russian rather than ethnic Ukrainian. I mean otherwise they would not wage full-scale separatist war. I know Maidan caused a lot of this, but this is beyond 2014 events. These guys don't buy into the whole Ukrainian sauce of the 90s.

    They had been Ukrainian for the last 25 odd years... if they wanted to be Russians the solution would be obvious... hold a referendum and vote to leave the Ukraine and then vote to join the Russian Federation.

    At the time they didn't because they were just Ukrainians wanting to continue to speak Russian. Who knows now though.... all this bullshit from Kiev might have made them reconsider but I suspect they remain Ukrainians wanting to speak Russian and have traditional economic and cultural and especially military ties with Russia.

    Probably alot of friendly fire incidents might occur.

    So many inconsistencies in US policy loyalty has to be blind otherwise it simply does not make sense.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 12 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:09 am

    The Russians defeated the Georgians on a dry run.

    Right now they not only have years of experience in Syria, they also have funded and put into service a wide range of drones that can be used to do a lot of the dangerous front like stuff they had to send special forces in for in Syria... they did a fantastic job, but now they will be able to do it remotely with drones and stand off weapons.

    The US can spend billions on Stingers... they are just drones... but they will clobber Kievs conscripts.

    I also rather suspect that when the US refuses to treat Russian defence needs with any respect that Russia is going to start acting in its own interests... there are HATO forces in the Ukraine training Kievs forces and supplying weapons... the least Russia can do is supply the freedom fighters with weapons they need to deal with the threats.

    I am sure they could set up some drone factories in the donbass to mass produce drones cheaply and quickly... the Ukraine doens't have the radar and SAM upgrades the Russians have spent big money over the last decade or so to deal with drones, and the US really can't help them much in that regard either... they would be seriously vulnerable to such warfare... as would most of HATO because air control doesn't help.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:43 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:You feel that way they do not, which is a common theme for people on this forum, they think their feelings are represented by the people. You can type 13 pages of why you feel that way but that's not represented by the masses.

    They are not neutral and they have voted for the guy who has favored aligning with the west double for going towards the EU.

    Going towards the EU, and going towards NATO - are two very different things.

    At least in popular perception. In reality it's one and the same

    Has for facts various polls done within Ukraine well as demonstrations by the people in it.

    West and Central pro NATO and EU

    Eastern Sides on russia boarder, pro russia and the eastern sides kinda between those two areas are on the fence bu total pop wise there is many more in favor vs against

    lol

    Yeah I looked at those polls

    Like this one right here:

    https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/for_release_2021_november_survey_of_residents_of_ukraine_eng.pdf

    Which claims 54% support for joining NATO, and no doubt if a referendum was organized, that would be the sort of figure that would come out as well

    But pay attention to this page:

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 12 Ukrain10

    First of all the language spoken at home. That's complete nonsense, the vast majority speak either Russian at home or a mix of Russian/Ukrainian. There's no way half the population speaks just Ukrainian at home. None of the Google Search data from the Ukraine or anything like that supports it.

    But anyway I can't prove it.

    The even more ridiculous claim here is that the fake Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was set up in the 90s by Ukrainian nationalists and then under Poroshenko received official recognition and support - is the one that 45% of Ukrainians adhere to.

    All those churches are empty, the ones that were seized from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate or MP), and then converted into Orthodox Church of Ukraine ones. They have a tiny amount of parishioners.

    Whereas on the contrary, just this year the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (MP) organized a procession in Kiev just last summer on the anniversary of the conversion of Rus' to Christianity.
    The procession numbered some 200,000-300,000 people. Keep in mind that the city itself has a population of about 3 million.



    Now of course many people were bused in and so on. But the number of believers that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (MP) was able to mobilize is impressive.
    The Orthodox Church of Ukraine meanwhile, that according to the poll here a plurality of Ukrainians adhere to, with 3 times as many adherents as to its rival - has not ever demonstrated being able to mobilize even near a tenth of that number. Not even just thousands. For any occasion.

    And for that reason I'm quite confident the data on support for joining NATO is bollocks as well.

    About the rest of the data in the report I don't know. But it's clearly compromised and several statistics have been fudged.
    Typical info-war technique. Mix in some insidious lies with the truth.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:17 am

    GarryB wrote:The Russians defeated the Georgians on a dry run.

    Right now they not only have years of experience in Syria, they also have funded and put into service a wide range of drones that can be used to do a lot of the dangerous front like stuff they had to send special forces in for in Syria... they did a fantastic job, but now they will be able to do it remotely with drones and stand off weapons.

    The US can spend billions on Stingers... they are just drones... but they will clobber Kievs conscripts.

    I also rather suspect that when the US refuses to treat Russian defence needs with any respect that Russia is going to start acting in its own interests... there are HATO forces in the Ukraine training Kievs forces and supplying weapons... the least Russia can do is supply the freedom fighters with weapons they need to deal with the threats.

    I am sure they could set up some drone factories in the donbass to mass produce drones cheaply and quickly... the Ukraine doens't have the radar and SAM upgrades the Russians have spent big money over the last decade or so to deal with drones, and the US really can't help them much in that regard either... they would be seriously vulnerable to such warfare... as would most of HATO because air control doesn't help.

    No-one's going to support some 'shock and awe' campaign to clobber Ukrainian conscripts, destroy bridges, radio stations and all the rest of this shite

    That was never an option from the beginning.

    If Russia wants to take over the Ukraine, it will just do it with lightning fast maneuvers to enclose territories, forcing troops to surrender and then raising local militias.
    Or to sponsor local rebellions and then provide support to the fighters

    But even those options I don't think are right. Not if the population in the Ukraine does not rise up in the first place and ask for help. No-one should be put into a potential war if they're not ready for it. We'll have to see how everything develops

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    Post  LMFS Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:13 pm

    flamming_python wrote:No-one's going to support some 'shock and awe' campaign to clobber Ukrainian conscripts, destroy bridges, radio stations and all the rest of this shite

    That was never an option from the beginning.

    If Russia wants to take over the Ukraine, it will just do it with lightning fast maneuvers to enclose territories, forcing troops to surrender and then raising local militias.
    Or to sponsor local rebellions and then provide support to the fighters

    But even those options I don't think are right. Not if the population in the Ukraine does not rise up in the first place and ask for help. No-one should be put into a potential war if they're not ready for it. We'll have to see how everything develops

    While I don't support and don't think that Russia has the slightest interest in taking over Ukraine, it is questionable what level of popular support that would have. I know one century of brainwashing, much reinforced in the last years, cannot be ignored, but:

    - Most of the population indeed seems rather politically passive and more interested in having their needs covered than anything else
    - A sizeable amount of people is certainly sick and tired of misery, crime and war
    - The population has not been asked whether they wanted russophobe nazis in control in the country in the interests of US and they are not allowed to say a peep about it

    So if it would come to escalate, I would not be surprised that Russia could find more supporters than the nazis currently in power have and thousands of people ready to integrate militias in many regions of Ukraine beyond the Donbass

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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:04 pm

    Russia has support in the lands spanning from Odessa to the Donbass, aka Novorssiya. Mercouris comments on this and I agree
    with his view. Even central Ukria around Kiev is not going to be actively resisting Russia.

    As for the bleating in the NATzO fake stream media about a Russian invasion, this is propaganda speak for any Russian action. So
    even if Russian forces do not enter Ukria NATzO will claim that they have.

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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:44 pm



    Russia is signalling that it will recognize the DNR and LNR as independent if Kiev does not fulfill its Minsk obligations.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:06 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Russia is signalling that it will recognize the DNR and LNR as independent if Kiev does not fulfill its Minsk obligations.


    And presumably independent states need a proper border, not a trench system. Something Ukraine is always bleating on about re its border with Russia and getting money from the US to do it.

    Sounds like a job for army engineers.

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