The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

It's starting...

The way I see it, we are heading for war. Idiot Putin let Kiev arm under his nose, while he was giving press conferences with a colgate smile.

Hannibal Barca wrote:The way I see it, we are heading for war. Idiot Putin let Kiev arm under his nose, while he was giving press conferences with a colgate smile.

It's cozy and warm in the Kremlin. Has Putin visited Donbas to see how his people live day to day? Even the comedian puppet has visited the contact line several times.... Not sure about dear leader traveling anywhere near the Donbas (at least for a "give hope" photo-op at the very border). Too pre-occupied with the "optics"... that'll show them.

The Kremlin can concede the Donbas and call it a day... at this point it's irresponsible to give those people hope for something that costs so much blood against the odds.... just to play a bureaucratic game.... that is Ukraine having "contested territory" thus violating one of NATO's ascension rules thus voiding Ukraine's NATO ascension. A very selfish game, sort of holding those people hostage for a game, not actually freeing them from the Ukro yoke. What about all the other Russians still living in Ukraine, a bit further west, north or south? Millions of them. Boggles the mind the selective, half measure policies. Evacuation is the least they can do (should have happened sooner), god knows these people have served their time as cannon fodder for Russia's Minks agreement "strategy".. if you can even call it a strategy.

If a Georgia 2.0 OP is on the cards... it's so predictably stupid I don't know what else to say. It's no deterrent, which is why the aggression takes place to begin with. But then again, to borrow a user's observation, when you have a reactionary, inert, risk-adverse, aging past political prime, weak leader, everything is possible. Someone with first hand experience calls the whole cadre, the Kremlin gnomes.

As I said when the whole "security demands" charade started. Bluffs in this town are easy to call. It appears that moment is coming pronto.

"Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited"

"By Dmitry Orlov and posted with permission

Denis Pushilin, leader of Donetsk, has just ordered a full evacuation. Leonid Pasechnik, leader of Lugansk, did the same. In doing so, they did exactly as I expected, and as I predicted. For all those of you who think that Putin is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, perhaps you should avoid thinking and just read my articles!

A bit less than a year ago, on April 18, 2021, I published an article titled “Putin’s Ukrainian Judo” which was reposted on ZeroHedge and TheSaker. I then translated it into Russian and published it on Aftersock.info where it was positively savaged for being defeatist. The reason I bring it up now is that in that article I explained that evacuation was the only winning move for the Russian side.

In that article I wrote:

The Ukrainian military has been massing troops and armor along the line of separation while the Russian military has pulled up its forces to their side of the border. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side are intensifying, with the hope of provoking the Russians into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout “Aha! Russian aggression!” Then they could put a stop to Nord Stream II pipeline, scoring a major geopolitical victory for Washington and follow that up with plenty of other belligerent moves designed to hurt Russia politically and economically.

For the Russians, there are no good choices that are obvious. Not responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while they shell and invade the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens who live there, would make Russia look weak, undermine the Russian government’s position domestically and cost it a great deal of geopolitical capital internationally. Responding to Ukrainian provocations with overwhelming military force and crushing the Ukrainian military as was done in Georgia in 2008 would be popular domestically but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out war with NATO. Even if militarily the conflict is contained and NATO forces sit it out, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade.

Those being the obvious bad choices, what are the obvious good ones, if any? Here, we have to pay careful attention to the official pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face value. First, he said that Russia does not need any more territory; it has all the land it could ever want. Second, he said that Russia will follow the path of maximum liberalization in granting citizenship to compatriots and that, in turn, the well-being of Russia’s citizens is a top priority. Third, he said that resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine through military means is unacceptable. Given these constraints, what courses of action remain open?

The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2 million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents. This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage, and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.

Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees. The elections that are to take place later this year would turn into a nationwide welcoming party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave the way for other waves of repatriation that are likely to follow. There are some 20 million Russians scattered throughout the world, and as the world outside Russia plunges deeper and deeper into resource scarcity they too will want to come home. While they may presently be reluctant to do so, seeing the positive example of how the Donbass evacuees are treated could help change their minds.

The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with as shown in this instructional video. Note that the maximum range of the Tornado-G system shown in the video is 120km.

And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when considering their steps.

The Donbass evacuation should resonate rather well internationally. It would be a typical Putin judo move knocking NATO and the US State Department off-balance. Since this would be a large humanitarian mission, it would be ridiculous to attempt to portray it as “Russian aggression.” On the other hand, Russia would be quite within its rights to issue stern warnings that any attempt to interfere with the evacuation or to launch provocations during the evacuation process would be dealt with very harshly, freeing Russia’s hands in dispatching to God the berserkers from the Ukraine’s Nazi battalions, some of whom don’t particularly like to follow orders.

The West would be left with the following status quo. The Donbass is empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is partitioned. The Ukraine would be unable to join NATO (a pipe dream which it has stupidly voted into its constitution) since this would violate the NATO charter, given that it does not control its own territory.

Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.

History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the shape of the future. Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds."


https://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo-revisited/

Biden to speak on Russia-Ukraine crisis Friday afternoon

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/politics/joe-biden-russia-ukraine/index.html

President Joe Biden will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET Friday to give "an update on our continued efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy, and Russia's buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine," according to the White House.

Biden last spoke about the crisis on Thursday as he departed the White House for a trip to Ohio, when he said there is "every indication" a Russian invasion of Ukraine "will happen in the next several days," and the threat of an attack is "very high."

The current president of Ukraine will speak it seems.

flamming_python wrote:

I'm sure the leaders of the DNR and LNR know how their people live and visit the contact line.

What it has to do with Putin, the president of Russia, I don't know

Think a bit harder perhaps. Even if we play stupid, as is clearly the case... and only count after the time when Russian passports were handed out... it's clear the complete detachment to facts on the ground and the lack of basic leadership competence during crisis that certain behavior, in this case, lack thereof, can have on a situation. But I'm just an observer, I guess it's none of my business how Russians treat each other.

We're back to "dead weight" talking points too I see. Creative bankruptcy.

It's hard to say these people deserve this... but, the Russian leadership, immune to accountability, certainly does.

LDNR army have full ukrainian plans, so they could prepare defense and battle plan. There is full mobilization of reserves and volunteers are comming in LDNR. Ukrainian plan is base on big numerical superiority of Ukrainian army. With mobilization and volunteers relation between ukrainian army and LDNR army will be soon 1:1. LDNR army will be in defense, while ukrainian army will go on the open to attack. Ukraine is on the brink of full economical and social collapse and with attack on Donbass, Russia and Belarus will stop all exports to Ukraine, including fuel, electricity, fuel,...

flamming_python wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:The way I see it, we are heading for war. Idiot Putin let Kiev arm under his nose, while he was giving press conferences with a colgate smile.

It's cozy and warm in the Kremlin. Has Putin visited Donbas to see how his people live day to day? Even the comedian puppet has visited the contact line several times.... Not sure about dear leader traveling anywhere near the Donbas (at least for a "give hope" photo-op at the very border). Too pre-occupied with the "optics"... that'll show them.

The Kremlin can concede the Donbas and call it a day... at this point it's irresponsible to give those people hope for something that costs so much blood against the odds.... just to play a bureaucratic game.... that is Ukraine having "contested territory" thus violating one of NATO's ascension rules thus voiding Ukraine's NATO ascension. A very selfish game, sort of holding those people hostage for a game, not actually freeing them from the Ukro yoke. What about all the other Russians still living in Ukraine, a bit further west, north or south? Millions of them. Boggles the mind the selective, half measure policies. Evacuation is the least they can do (should have happened sooner), god knows these people have served their time as cannon fodder for Russia's Minks agreement "strategy".. if you can even call it a strategy.

If a Georgia 2.0 OP is on the cards... it's so predictably stupid I don't know what else to say. It's no deterrent, which is why the aggression takes place to begin with. But then again, to borrow a user's observation, when you have a reactionary, inert, risk-adverse, aging past political prime, weak leader, everything is possible. Someone with first hand experience calls the whole cadre, the Kremlin gnomes.

As I said when the whole "security demands" charade started. Bluffs in this town are easy to call. It appears that moment is coming pronto.

I'm sure the leaders of the DNR and LNR know how their people live and visit the contact line.

What it has to do with Putin, the president of Russia, I don't know

There are just too many trolls here. I am pretty sure that the Russian leadership is well informed about what is happening in Donbass, the living conditions, the military situation and the humanitarian situation.

I think the evacuation right now is very good because the US is desperate for war. With evacuation of civilians this takes a major thing our of the hands of the US, that can be used against Russia.

It also paints the reports of the US that Russia is an aggressor as false, Russia is acting in a humanitarian way.

As for the weapons systems that the Ukies got, it won't make a big difference because that will destroyed, if they try something stupid or more likely it will be surrendered.

Somebody made a very good point on The Duran, the regular Ukrainian troops won't fight for a long time because they know it is a lose lose situation, if they fight they may get killed and if they advance into the Donbass they will 100% get killed.

For this reason the regular Ukrainian troops will more than likely surrender quickly and it will only be the hardcore Nazis that are fighting.

flamming_python wrote:

par far wrote:Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.

LOL

Only problem with this article is that it's only the women, kids, and elderly being evacuated. They don't have much economic value and will only be mouths to feed.

The men between 18-55 years of age are all ordered to stay by the MGB of the DNR/LNR, and ideally report to a recruitment station and take up arms.

But shipping some battlefield robots there is a definitely a good idea to terminate whatever Ukronazis decide to cross the contact line.

The kids I agree will be mouths to feed but kids do grow up and these kids will grow up in Russia. The elderly are mouths to feed but I don't think Russians don't think like that when it comes to Russians. The women can do jobs.

flamming_python wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

I'm sure the leaders of the DNR and LNR know how their people live and visit the contact line.

What it has to do with Putin, the president of Russia, I don't know

Think a bit harder perhaps. Even if we play stupid, as is clearly the case... and only count after the time when Russian passports were handed out... it's clear the complete detachment to facts on the ground and to basic leadership competence during crisis that certain behavior, in this case, lack thereof, can have on a situation. But I'm just an observer, I guess it's none of my business how Russians treat each other.

We're back to "dead weight" talking points too I see. Creative bankruptcy.

Nothing dead weight about it

As far as Russia is concerned the Donbass is part of the Ukraine. What business does Putin have inspecting anything there?

You're the one who should think a little

Atlasclown likes to make an ass of himself flaming, it's not the first time

This clown goes around inventing sob stories, somehow the DPR fighting the UAF is Russian killing Russian,  to my eyes its Ukrainian killing Ukrainian

But what can you do, clowns like this starting growing out of the dew as soon as sleepy joe fell off the stairs to air force 1, then the doofus patrol came out in force

VARGR198 wrote:

I don't think there will be a full out war(maybe wrong here), I think this maybe a ploy to put more pressure on Germany(especially Germany) , France and Italy to press the Kiev regime to do the Minsk agreement.

There won't be many Ukrainians left in Ukraine, many have gone to Russia and many many many more have gone to Europe. And this trend will continue, the EU is preparing for millions of Ukrainians to come to the EU should "Russia Invade". What this means is a shit ton of Ukrainians are coming to the EU.


https://www.rt.com/russia/549799-eu-predicts-refugee-crisis/

Try to fight it all you want... 22 years doesn't change the history of centuries. Weak leaders might want to rewrite history with their propaganda while they rule to fit their legacy on the books but historians know better.

What I see is a lot of clowns around here advocating for Russia to go to war on the behalf of (insert name here).

I remember the year 1914, one of these humanitarian savior clowns , called gavrilo princip assassinated the arch Duke, WW1 started, Russia jumped to the defense of our small Balkan friends...

And the world hasn't really been the same ever since wouldnt you say?

You know when you learn a lesson the hard way, you do your best not to repeat the same thing again

Last time russia went gallabanding to defend the sovereignty of some weak country that couldnt fight for itself, the entire royal family was murdered and a black abyss called communism destroyed Russia

100+ years later and the humanitarian clown brigade is at it again

Russia isnt fighting your battles for you, it has fought some bloody battles already for what it has and should only fight for defense of itself, not for the pipe dreams of little freedom fighters far and wide 

If you wanna fight, pickup a weapon and stand the post, otherwise start a blogspot and share your feelings

Arkanghelsk wrote:What I see is a lot of clowns around here advocating for Russia to go to war on the behalf of (insert name here).

I remember the year 1914, one of these humanitarian savior clowns , called gavrilo princip assassinated the arch Duke, WW1 started, Russia jumped to the defense of our small Balkan friends...

And the world hasn't really been the same ever since wouldnt you say?

You know when you learn a lesson the hard way, you do your best not to repeat the same thing again

Last time russia went gallabanding to defend the sovereignty of some weak country that couldnt fight for itself, the entire royal family was murdered and a black abyss called communism destroyed Russia

100+ years later and the humanitarian clown brigade is at it again

Russia isnt fighting your battles for you, it has fought some bloody battles already for what it has and should only fight for defense of itself, not for the pipe dreams of little freedom fighters far and wide 

If you wanna fight, pickup a weapon and stand the post, otherwise start a blogspot and share your feelings

So you are saying after 7 years of the obvious Russia is unprepared for a small regional conflict?

Russia is losing the soft power war on pretty much all fronts. It’s saving grace is the ability to pump gas. That’s about it.

bitcointrader70 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:What I see is a lot of clowns around here advocating for Russia to go to war on the behalf of (insert name here).

I remember the year 1914, one of these humanitarian savior clowns , called gavrilo princip assassinated the arch Duke, WW1 started, Russia jumped to the defense of our small Balkan friends...

And the world hasn't really been the same ever since wouldnt you say?

You know when you learn a lesson the hard way, you do your best not to repeat the same thing again

Last time russia went gallabanding to defend the sovereignty of some weak country that couldnt fight for itself, the entire royal family was murdered and a black abyss called communism destroyed Russia

100+ years later and the humanitarian clown brigade is at it again

Russia isnt fighting your battles for you, it has fought some bloody battles already for what it has and should only fight for defense of itself, not for the pipe dreams of little freedom fighters far and wide 

If you wanna fight, pickup a weapon and stand the post, otherwise start a blogspot and share your feelings

So you are saying after 7 years of the obvious Russia is unprepared for a small regional conflict?

Russia is losing the soft power war on pretty much all fronts. It’s saving grace is the ability to pump gas. That’s about it.

No what I am saying is that after 20 years the US got its ass savaged by tusken raiders in Afghanistan and has lost ALL of it's hard power

So I am advocating for Russia not to waste it's time in some flag waiving operation like Iraq or Afghanistan where you'll lose your war boner and never fight in a war again like our American friends across the sea

Who can muster 3000 men for "near peer conflict "

If Russia wants to end up like the flaccid US, it invades Ukraine and loses it's hard power. 

Theres bigger fish to fry , like NATO

Arkanghelsk wrote:

bitcointrader70 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:What I see is a lot of clowns around here advocating for Russia to go to war on the behalf of (insert name here).

I remember the year 1914, one of these humanitarian savior clowns , called gavrilo princip assassinated the arch Duke, WW1 started, Russia jumped to the defense of our small Balkan friends...

And the world hasn't really been the same ever since wouldnt you say?

You know when you learn a lesson the hard way, you do your best not to repeat the same thing again

Last time russia went gallabanding to defend the sovereignty of some weak country that couldnt fight for itself, the entire royal family was murdered and a black abyss called communism destroyed Russia

100+ years later and the humanitarian clown brigade is at it again

Russia isnt fighting your battles for you, it has fought some bloody battles already for what it has and should only fight for defense of itself, not for the pipe dreams of little freedom fighters far and wide 

If you wanna fight, pickup a weapon and stand the post, otherwise start a blogspot and share your feelings

So you are saying after 7 years of the obvious Russia is unprepared for a small regional conflict?

Russia is losing the soft power war on pretty much all fronts. It’s saving grace is the ability to pump gas. That’s about it.

No what I am saying is that after 20 years the US got its ass savaged by tusken raiders in Afghanistan and has lost ALL of it's hard power

So I am advocating for Russia not to waste it's time in some flag waiving operation like Iraq or Afghanistan where you'll lose your war boner and never fight in a war again like our American friends across the sea

Who can muster 3000 men for "near peer conflict "

If Russia wants to end up like the flaccid US, it invades Ukraine and loses it's hard power. 

Theres bigger fish to fry , like NATO

People(especially in the collective west) don't understand, why it is bad for Russia to go to war over Ukraine.

The collective west is slowly destroying it self, why should Russia interfere?

There are many idiots in the west, when it comes to Russia. There is a reason for this and that is because the powers want them to be idiots when it comes to Russia and be idiots in general.

But it is a whole different  level of idiot, when being on a alterative media(a site like this one) and say something about Russia like "It’s saving grace is the ability to pump gas. That’s about it.."

He a bitcoin trader, theres not much to expect

Those guys dont last long, so they have no comprehension of russian mentality

Hes here today gone tomorrow

Russia’s soft power over Europe is selling oil/gas/energy/natural resources. Other than that no ones want any of Russian crap. Ever heard of anyone wanting a Russian smartphone? How about a computer? How about an automobile? How about even clothes?

Nope I don’t think so.

bitcointrader70 wrote:Russia’s soft power over Europe is selling oil/gas/energy/natural resources. Other than that no ones want any of Russian crap. Ever heard of anyone wanting a Russian smartphone? How about a computer? How about an automobile? How about even clothes?

Nope I don’t think so.

Lol its thanks to those resources there is such a thing as Europe 

But I understand your mentality, that's why your civilization has no future, you've put your eggs in the meta basket

Good luck with inflation, race, and gender