Russia and economic war by the west

I was sure that the Ruble would bounce back. But I didn't expect it to happen so fast. I think this is partly about an FX short squeeze. Some trading desks at big banks are probably getting nuked and squeezed. Yes the Ruble isn't international. But big banks have a way of trading everything. It will come out in the news in the next few weeks.

The Ruble has probably made an interim high for now. And it will probably gyrate back down again a bit. But it survived the first days of the financial attack. The US really expected a runway banking and currency crisis in the first week. That did not happen.

kvs wrote: 

Russia should have forced payment in rubles for its oil and natural gas years ago.   The west can eat sh*t with its demands and
condescension.   The idea that precious energy is sold for dollars and euros is moronic.   The customers have to pay the currency
that the seller demands.

Nobody would have used it. Western countries have historically been far, far ahead in market fundamentals. It was easier to buy and sell property, negotiate contracts, invest in securities, move money across borders, etc. And there was a much, much larger market to boot. Russia couldn't hold a candle to that.

But now Russia has an opportunity. The world has seen that the dollar and euro are first and foremost tools for financial warfare, and not global trade. Their utility and safety are nowhere near what they were in years prior. Russia has to play a clever game at continuing to open up its market to foreign investment and limit its reprisals to the ones who broke trust. If they do that well, then the ruble could possibly become a global trade currency near the end of the decade. And even if they do play a great game the ruble still faces strong headwinds. This is because of the expansion of crypto. The emergence of these new currencies means that all (at least nearly all) of the state backed fiat currencies will likely diminish.

The best out is for Russia to make this adventure in Ukraine short and quick - the longer it last real damage will linger and get more heavy. And ordinary citizens will feel it - there are projections that Russian economy could fall 10-15% if more sanctions are enforced, this means 15 years of economical development gone into wind.

Russia will want this conflict to be as short as possible, but it is not possible to do half a job.

Western sanctions are never going to go away... the west imposes sanctions to try to control Russian behaviour and that has never worked so why would sanctions ever be removed except in a western step down?

It would be utterly foolish of Russians to even consider India as neutral or even a serious ally, when its not. Hope the Russians open the Soviet blinds on their eyes and see the reality as to where India has set its bed, for the past 15+ years.

It think it is you that is mistaken, Russia does not need slaves and lackeys who will automatically be happy with everything Russia does no matter what like the US does. The US is trying to control India as it does with all its so called western allies.... the west is not independent and must do as the US tells them... Russia is not like that... China is not obliged to support Russia in everything and Russia is not obliged to support China in everything... that is not the relationship in a multipolar world, where each pole... no matter how big or how small gets their own say and should not be influenced by others through economic or military pressure.

India needs to do what is right for India, Russia is not going to tell them what they can or cannot do... but the US and EU and UK can and do... that is the choice they need to make. India might choose the lucrative US market, but the US will make them leave Russia and China... which is a much bigger market that is growing and developing and wont stop India from also growing and developing the way the US and the west must based on their model... it is plain for everyone to see.

If you are planning on robbing a bank is your friend the one that offers to drive the getaway car, or the one that tries to talk you out of it and threatens to go to the police if you do, and help you get a better job if you don't...

India has interests in the west and in Russia and therefore has to balance its decisions, but I think this and several other situations should make things clear that the west does not like to share customers and they are going to have to decide... 1.2 billion Indians is an attractive market for the west so they wont give up easily, but equally they seem to be prepared to give up the chinese market with their BS too... that is likely to cause a real split with the EU and US, but I think the UK will stick with the US...

It should also be any eyeopener to any "expert", particularly in India, who thinks Pakistan is a Chinese asset. Well, no. It always was a US/western protectorate and Pakistani mil/political establishment was always in their firm clutches.

That is very true, and something the desperately tried to hide when trying to recruit India for the western crusade against China, but then the US has also screwed Pakistan often enough for them to know better as well... we live in very interesting times... 100 years ago WWI had just finished and the commies had taken Russia and lines on maps were being inked in the Middle East to create lots of brand new countries and brand new royal families because Germany was taken down as a power and the spoils were split between Britain and France and the US etc etc...

US agriculture needs products from the Russian Federation. Therefore, the United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers.

The irony is that the US has an infinite supply of fertiliser... but it is the wrong type to be useful...

The document equated fertilizers with goods of strategic importance, such as medicines, medical products or agricultural products.

Wow, that is amazing... I guess before that document there is no way anyone could confuse fertiliser with agriculture...

The US plans to release one million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months, How much of a difference will that have? I don't think it will be much and after the US releases 186 million barrels of oil, the prices will just up again, even more. The US will need to replace those 186 million barrels of oil.

They are probably hoping that in 6 months time this war will be concluded and they can just replenish their reserves by buying extra oil from Russia again.

I think it is the Democrat's worrying about the mid terms in November.

Yeah, not worried about WWIII, but mid term elections.... wow they are focussed....

If they do that well, then the ruble could possibly become a global trade currency near the end of the decade.

Well that goes without saying because Russia is a large resource rich country with products and materials and services and technologies to sell and they can hardly accept Euros and US dollars for all of that, but Russia is not interested in replacing the US at the head of the west, they want every other country to step up and be independent.

Autodestruct wrote:

kvs wrote: 

Russia should have forced payment in rubles for its oil and natural gas years ago.   The west can eat sh*t with its demands and
condescension.   The idea that precious energy is sold for dollars and euros is moronic.   The customers have to pay the currency
that the seller demands.

Nobody would have used it.  Western countries have historically been far, far ahead in market fundamentals.  It was easier to buy and sell property, negotiate contracts, invest in securities, move money across borders, etc.  And there was a much, much larger market to boot.  Russia couldn't hold a candle to that.

But now Russia has an opportunity.  The world has seen that the dollar and euro are first and foremost tools for financial warfare, and not global trade.  Their utility and safety are nowhere near what they were in years prior.  Russia has to play a clever game at continuing to open up its market to foreign investment and limit its reprisals to the ones who broke trust.  If they do that well, then the ruble could possibly become a global trade currency near the end of the decade.  And even if they do play a great game the ruble still faces strong headwinds.  This is because of the expansion of crypto.  The emergence of these new currencies means that all (at least nearly all) of the state backed fiat currencies will likely diminish.

"Nobody" can shop elsewhere. Beggars can't be choosers but Russia has been making them think they are rich (in energy).

magnumcromagnon wrote: Russia hasn't even released any of the many dozens upon dozens of it's financial warfare measures in retaliation

I would really appreciate if you or anybody else could list down what are the possible counter sanctions Russia can place on US and EU. Offcourse the sanctions must be such that they do not hurt Russia more than what they do to US and EU.

Really would like to know what are Russia's options here.

Russia can cut gas deliveries to Europe and nuclear fuel supplies to the USA.
They can also cut all fertilizer exports to either of those countries.
As well as any strategic metals like nickel or palladium.
They can nationalize any foreign owned properties in Russia.
They can ban Russian sailors from crewing Western merchant ships. These constitute most of the ship crews in Europe and the Atlantic.
Ukrainians are also a major component of Western merchant crews.
They can ban their aircraft from Russian air space. Already did.

lancelot wrote:Russia can cut gas deliveries to Europe and nuclear fuel supplies to the USA.
They can also cut all fertilizer exports to either of those countries.
As well as any strategic metals like nickel or palladium.

They can do the above but it will also hurt Russia as their export earnings go down. Finding alternative countries for these exports will take time.

lancelot wrote:
They can nationalize any foreign owned properties in Russia.

This one is good, they should go for it immediately if not done already. Basically I was looking for counter sanctions of the type like siezing financial and physical assets of US and EU, identical to the seizing of Russian foreign reserves by them.

Even Schol* can understand this.

owais.usmani wrote:They can do the above but it will also hurt Russia as their export earnings go down. Finding alternative countries for these exports will take time.

You do not get it. Russia as is was sanctioned from buying car and aircraft parts and cars and aircraft themselves. Other than medicine that constitutes most of their imports from the EU by value as is. The remaining imports are residual in comparison. Russia has a huge trade inbalance with the EU in their favor where Russian gas exports were enough to cover all imports they get from the EU (at last year's gas prices) and oil and oil products exports are like 3x that. Russia were dutifully putting that excess revenue into their reserves. Which the EU essentially froze. The idea Russia "needs" EU export earnings when they are effectively blocked from importing anything of importance with those earnings and they can be confiscated at any point in the future the EU wishes is ludicrous.

Even for the things which Russia can import not under sanctions, the three major European shipping companies are refusing to conduct trade with Russia. This means trade is effectively blocked to a large degree. It will take a long time to shift shipping contracts to other companies. And those products will be stuck in customs for months to come. Since European ports claim all cargoes to Russia need to be inspected for possibly infringing goods.

As for medicine imports. Most of the active ingredients used in commonly used medicines are produced in India and China. If the problem is putting those in pills and packaging them then Russia can do that easily. There will be issues with rarer more recent medicines sure. Like medicines which came into mainline use since 1990s or later still under patent. But the whole concept Russia "needs" even the medicine imports from Europe is kind of overblown. If these medicines made such a major difference to global health, how come US lifespan hasn't increased since then?

Levi
@Levi_godman
·
3h
The European Union regrets the introduction of counter-sanctions by the Russian Federation against EU leaders and the inability to challenge them

Borrell

Are they schizophrenic? They literally put like 6000 sanctions on Russia

And, we know who's side General Winter is on

Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
·
5h
The snow is back the day President Vladimir Putin asked to be paid in Roubles for the gas European and unfriendly states are receiving. Nature is involved in geopolitics.

This method of quoting someone like The Sirius Report is far more economical in space and bandwidth whilst allowing Garry to comment if he needs to.


The Sirius Report
@thesiriusreport
So it continues.

Russia intends providing food and crops to friendly nations. Don't underestimate quantities they have. They will be sold in rubles and national currencies. Europe and US will be given no assistance.

Recall China has massive stockpiles of food produce too.

Gonzalo Lira
@realGonzaloLira
·
5h
Something else: The Kremlin controls the food output of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and now Ukraine—all four of which account for 40% of global wheat exports.

In other words, the Kremlin is saying that only friendly nations will eat—unfriendly nations will starve.

Literally.

lancelot wrote:There will be issues with rarer more recent medicines sure. Like medicines which came into mainline use since 1990s or later still under patent.

If those patents are from "unfriendly countries" they are irrelevant in Russia, now. One of the first counter sanctions was exactly about ignoring western patents.

Hole wrote:
Even Schol* can understand this.

You don't like your Palpatine, do you?

Kiko wrote:What is the secret of the wonderful strengthening of the ruble, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 31.3.2022.

https://vz.ru/economy/2022/3/31/1151275.html

From the above article. This is what I fear and dislike the most.

“Strengthening to 80 rubles per dollar is possible, but a lower dollar exchange rate may create risks for filling the Russian budget. Therefore, when the dollar exchange rate falls into the range of 75-80 rubles, verbal interventions by the authorities may probably follow, and then the abolition of measures supporting the ruble, ”says Evstifeev.

“At the moment, we can see the dollar below 80 rubles as a reaction to the improvement in the geopolitical situation. But over a longer period, it is more likely that the ruble-dollar pair will return above 90 rubles, ”said Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

This intervention should stop and make all out effort to regain the value of Ruble.
If higher value Ruble is not filling the budget, then adjust it with an increase in the commodity sale prices, to US/EU, but don't let Ruble loose its value.

A explanation.

The Sirius Report
@thesiriusreport
·
4h
Russia countermove

Gazprom has terminated its participation in the German company GAZPROM Germania GmbH and all its assets.

This is clearly in response to the possible nationalisation of Gazprom and Rosneft subsidiaries in Germany.

Via Clever Tactics, Putin Gets His Way On Rubles-For-Energy Demand
April 1, 2022 NEWS
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Some reports say Putin backed down on his demand for rubles for energy. Those reports are essentially wrong.

Understanding Putin’s Clever Tactic

Russian president Vladimir Putin demanded rubles for energy. His concern was that new EU sanctions that would freeze euro-denominated accounts of Russian energy suppliers.

One of Putin’s fear stems from the fact that payments for gas shipped in April get paid later in the month or in May, depending on the contract. A second fear is European sanctions on Gazprombank.

The EU said no to his demand. Yet, the gas will still flow. This prompted misguided reports that “Putin backed down.”
What’s Really Happening?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to Vladimir Putin’s clever way around the problem of rubles payments.

The EU will pay in euros and via a separate account at Gasprom, the euros are immediately converted to rubles.



When Putin first announced the ruble-payment demand last week, European officials rejected it, saying the move would violate contract terms. But the Kremlin Thursday published a presidential decree outlining the mechanism to allow foreign buyers to convert their dollars and euros into the Russian currency through a state-controlled bank.

The Kremlin decree mandates that deliveries starting from April 1 be paid for in rubles. Foreign buyers need to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts at Gazprombank to handle payment, which can be done remotely. Buyers transfer foreign currency to pay for the gas into their accounts, Gazprombank converts the funds to rubles on the Moscow Exchange and transfers rubles into the buyer’s ruble account for payment on to Gazprom. The payment is considered complete when the rubles reach Gazprom’s account.

Putin said the goal of the new mechanism was to prevent western governments from attempting to seize the payments in foreign currency or the accounts through which they went.

“If gas is supplied and paid for under the traditional scheme, new dollar and euro payments can be frozen,” he said.

“I think ultimately Russia wanted to send a message that as long as its gas is being paid for in time and in full (irrespectively of which currency is used), the gas will continue to flow,” said Katja Yafimava, ​Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “If Europe were to lose supplies of Russian gas it would be not because of Russia cutting them off but because of Europe not paying for them.”

Another motivation may have been to protect Gazprombank, one of the few major Russian banks that’s so far avoided the most severe western sanctions, from future restrictions, she said.

http://zububrothers.com/2022/04/01/via-clever-tactics-putin-gets-his-way-on-rubles-for-energy-demand/

Could fit in the other thread

More, much more from the boss of BASF. More at link. My highlight

He warned further in the interview that many Germans are currently greatly underestimating the consequences of what Russia shutting off the taps would mean... nothing less than a historic crisis:

   "Many have misconceptions. I notice that in many of the conversations I have. People often make no connection at all between a boycott and their own job. As if our economy and our prosperity were set in stone."

He explained that higher prices are already having a huge impact on the food supply given at this point BASF has been forced to reduce the production of ammonia for fertilizer production.

Brudermuller called this "a catastrophe and we will feel it even more clearly next year than this one. Because most of the fertilizers that the farmers need this year have already been bought. In 2023 there will be a shortage, and then the poor countries in particular, for example in Africa, will no longer be able to afford to buy basic foodstuffs." In a very alarming statement and forewarning, he added: "There is a risk of famine."

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/basf-ceo-warns-germany-total-collapse-if-russian-gas-supply-cut

lancelot wrote:
Even for the things which Russia can import not under sanctions, the three major European shipping companies are refusing to conduct trade with Russia. This means trade is effectively blocked to a large degree. It will take a long time to shift shipping contracts to other companies. And those products will be stuck in customs for months to come. Since European ports claim all cargoes to Russia need to be inspected for possibly infringing goods.

This is the reason why there are flour and oil shortages in the EU. The EU-tards in Bruxelles snookered themselves with their sanctions spew.
Russia does not even need to impose sanctions when the retards in the EU imposed them on themselves.

It is glorious to see the haters in the EU eat their own shit. Their rabid projection of inferiority onto Russians in their racist wont needs payback
and they are now getting at least some of it.

JohninMK wrote:Bakhti Nishanov
@b_nishanov
·
1h
“Russia wants us to support them but we don’t recognize Crimea, or Donbas. Yes, we are in a union with Russia but it doesn’t apply to this situation. We won’t help Russia avoid US and EU sanctions.” - Deputy  chair of the presidential administration in Kazakhstan. This is huge.

Someone should remind the leadership of Kazakhstan who saved their ass in Janurary.

The again, they may be doing things secretly while openly saying they won't get involved so they are out of limelight. Issue is, that tactic never works.

We can see the delays that were caused by loss of naval powerplant from the 2014 sanctions, what will this round do? The ones that come to mind:

MC-21 many western subsystems need to be replaced, avionics, APUs, actuators, etc etc.
LNG - Russian LNG plants (I am told) use Western tech, can how long will it take Russia and China to replace these?
Icebreakers - I read that the Nuclear ice breakers have significant western components. I know the electric drives are joint venture with GE, can Russia make them without GE components?

These are just a few massive areas where I fear the impact will be felt.

mnztr wrote:We can see the delays that were caused by loss of naval powerplant from the 2014 sanctions, what will this round do? The ones that come to mind:

MC-21 many western subsystems need to be replaced, avionics, APUs, actuators, etc etc.
LNG - Russian LNG plants (I am told) use Western tech, can how long will it take Russia and China to replace these?
Icebreakers - I read that the Nuclear ice breakers have significant western components. I know the electric drives are joint venture with GE, can Russia make them without GE components?

These are just a few massive areas where I fear the impact will be felt.

The MC-21 will be certified with all Russian components in 2024. So where is the pain?