Russia and economic war by the west

Pacense wrote:"A price cap could be implemented immediately – say, at $70 per barrel – and lowered by about $10 each month the war continues. Yes, Putin could refuse to sell oil at this price. But, given that he is already desperate enough to sell to China and India at steep discounts, and today’s energy prices far exceed production costs, this seems unlikely.

Instead, Russia would probably continue supplying oil and gas to Western buyers at the capped price, while buyers like China and India, under threat of sanctions, would have no reason to pay more. This would provide consumers relief from high energy prices and cause Russia’s revenues to decline sharply"

I've been hearing a lot about 30 Usd per barrel, but also 40 Usd. Never heard about 70 Usd before. But 70 Usd sounds about right. Enough to cripple oil revenues, but also enough to keep production going.

The whole concept is retarded and it only takes two braincells to figure that out.

The whole idea is so stupid in so many dimensions it just doesn't register. Similar to talk of using escrow accounts to pay for Russian energy a month ago. Europe isn't a monopsony client of Russian energy, and energy like oil can be easily transported elsewhere. Just like Europe can switch suppliers, so can Russia switch customers. And global oil production isn't rising substantially elsewhere, and since demand for oil is pretty much inelastic, you can pretty much guarantee someone else will get that Russian oil.

Pacense wrote:Are you sure about that? China trades with Russia like 5% of what it trades with US and EU alone. It trades with Japan and SK way more than with Russia. China also gets its oil from a varity of sources. Would they go to a economic war with the EU and US because of an oil cap that it can be beneficial for them as well? I don't think we can say they would.

China would pay lip service to the sanctions and continue buying Russian energy just like they are currently doing with Iranian oil. You can't enforce global sanctions like that without going through the UN and either Russia or China would veto it on the security council. You can bet that securing its food and energy supply is a Chinese imperative and in fact the current situation plays into their hands. China used to get their resources from countries like Australia and Canada. But right now they are in a full blown economic war against Australia, and Canada isn't reliable either. China keeps getting threatened with a Western naval blockade. Russia is the natural replacement for either Australia or Canada. As the country with the largest landmass on Earth, Russia also has the richest deposits of basically every single natural resource. And what Russia doesn't have, it is because they never bothered prospecting and developing the resource.

Pacense wrote:
You just have to google, Russia Oil Cap, and a lot of articles will show up.

Like this one, from 2 days ago https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-russia-oil-embargo-needs-immediate-price-cap-by-sergei-guriev-2022-06

A price cap could be implemented immediately – say, at $70 per barrel – and lowered by about $10 each month the war continues. Yes, Putin could refuse to sell oil at this price. But, given that he is already desperate enough to sell to China and India at steep discounts, and today’s energy prices far exceed production costs, this seems unlikely.

Instead, Russia would probably continue supplying oil and gas to Western buyers at the capped price, while buyers like China and India, under threat of sanctions, would have no reason to pay more. This would provide consumers relief from high energy prices and cause Russia’s revenues to decline sharpl

I've been hearing a lot about 30 Usd per barrel, but also 40 Usd. Never heard about 70 Usd before. But 70 Usd sounds about right. Enough to cripple oil revenues, but also enough to keep production going.

So Russia gave a discount for India and China, two countries that Russia considers close friends - yet now the West is demanding an even larger discount for itself, calling it a price cap, in addition hoping that it will force Russia to provide a larger discount to other customers as well, destroying its own profit margins

I really don't see the logic in this or how anyone can hope it to work, or why Russia will sabotage itself.
It looks like the article has been written by an Ukr though, so granted making sense is not necessarily the priority.

If the West doesn't want to buy Russian oil for the price its sold at, then that's their call and always has been. Russia can no more force them to buy their oil than any retailer on the high street can force a window-shopper to make an actual purchase.
But such a decision will actually lead to huge extra demand on other oil producers and supply bottlenecks, raising the prices of Saudi, Iranian, etc... oil. The West won't save any money, will likely have trouble getting all the oil it needs and that will have additional economic knock-on effects, while Russian oil will be less in demand and decrease in price - but that will cause it to be snapped up eagerly by other consumers in the world market. or perhaps mixed with other oil brands, relabeled and resold by whatever 3rd party, and so on. Regardless, Russia won't provide a discount to anyone it doesn't either consider a friend, or whose market it doesn't want to penetrate.

Europe doesn't produce, they are the customer.

You are a buyer, you go to the store. At the store you need milk.  Milk at the store let's say is $5 for a 4L jug.  You want it and need it but only willing to pay (price cap) $3 for that 4L.  You demand that they will charge you $3.  What do you think happens?  Especially since market average is $5 for that 4L jug?

The customer needs it, the seller can sell to whomever.  Just because EU puts a cap on something, doesn't mean the sellers will agree to it. And if EU thinks the Saudis, Algerians, etc will sell it at those prices, you are more stupid than you sound.  Already the Saudis and Algerians told the EU to f off with increase oil production.  You think they will just gladly take less than what the market is paying?  What can EU provide besides fiat?

Just because they will do this or that, doesn't mean it works. And judging by previous demands, nothing they did work.

Russia will just sell to whoever. And currently, even Europeans are paying obscene amounts for Russian oil and gas as is.

So please, stop being nieve.

Edit: as evident pointed out by many others - Iranian oil. Couldn't stop their oil sales which continued even after heavy sanctions.

People need energy. They want cheap energy. If they want both, better start sucking up to the Russians, not making demands amd threats. They turn off the pipeline and EU will face hardships for quite a few years.

Pacense wrote:In order for sanctions to come at full effect, they must be applied to third countries that are helping out Russia bypass those sanctions. No other way for them to be more or less efective. We all can assume this as a fact now, and not as an opinion.

The cap on oil or gas, would be a smart way to do it regarding raw materials. Most argue that it just can't be enforced upon India or China. That they will never accept such cap. We'll see how it will work out, if ever implemented.

Regarding high tech, a third party enforced ban, would be way more diffiult to implement. There can be a ton of companys operating in that environment, and trying to bypass sanctions.

Anway, my main point, is that a country can not be dependend on others in order to survive (even more to thrive) on the complex chain of manufacturing that we currently have globally. Being dependend on India or China, ain't an option. No matter how friendly the Russia regime sees them.

What's a fact, that the West will be stupid enough to sanction China and India for trading with Russia?

I don't put it past them, but there is a limit to even their dissonance with reality, as evidenced by them not talking up the coming defeat of Russia by the Ukrainian cyborgs anymore either.

They were talking about kicking Russia out of swift for the last 15 years and Russia had to invade the Ukraine before they did it...

Lots of articles around just means lots of thinktanks and CIA owned "reporters" doing their jobs talking shit.

The idea that Russia could shrug off ties with the west because the west never really allowed them to become fully integrated into the international system is reasonable, but because of the hostile relationship with the US most of the ties were with Europe and most existed because the west benefitted enormously... getting cheap energy helped Germany be an industrial world power, and its chemicals industries rely on gas to the point of addiction... when the cuts get deeper and deeper and Russia starts to get alternative customers it will result in Russian sanctions can only seriously hurt Europe.

In a sense they have cancelled Christmas dinner and weekly breaks at the local cafe and other minor things, but the west relies on energy in the way a tennant relies on their land lord to provide shelter for which they pay money... Russia has been keeping the rent super cheap which means the Europeans can live more comfortably because they can spend that extra money on other things that are luxuries, but if Russia charges market rents or you are out or just says you are out because we have other customers who will pay the same rent but are not as much trouble as you are then their little world is going to change radically for the worse.

The west has a lot more ties with China and vice versa but China has production and internal population big enough that even if no one else buys their stuff they will have an internal market to keep what they need working going while they find other markets... they might need to build their own shipping fleet to carry it and a navy to protect their interests... they are already doing that really...

The west is wealthy but wealthy people are not generous... they will buy in bulk and demand discounts for their business so you end up making rather less money from their purchases compared with the poor customer who wait for specials and buy when they can afford.

Russia and China and the rest of the BRICSA countries can work with the rest of the world to make the rest of the world a better place with growth and development and without bombing and sanctions to "isolate and contain"... which is western speak for economic warfare to cripple a country which always hurts the poor and the people rather than the leadership that has somehow upset the west.

The west is going to cripple itself pulling out of China... the Chinese government could just nationalise foreign own factories and businesses, or do as Russia is doing... buy them up supercheap as the foreign companies flee... China owns land all round the world including lots of farms here in New Zealand... it would be a very mess situation and might turn very ugly...

The difference between the split of Russia and the west and China and the West is like comparing a hesitent couple that barely held hands being forced apart by Uncle Sam... the creepy old Uncle of the bride, with Siamese twins whose torsos are joined and internal organs shared... there needs to be serious surgury and both are going to bleed... but it is necessary because one has gone septic.

I've been hearing a lot about 30 Usd per barrel, but also 40 Usd. Never heard about 70 Usd before. But 70 Usd sounds about right. Enough to cripple oil revenues, but also enough to keep production going.

Russia was still making profits at $40 per barrel... $70 per barrel would be ideal for them because they don't want the product to be so expensive that their customers stop using their cars or central heating... a moderate price and large volume makes them the best profits and $70 to $80 would be an ideal price range for them.

The discounts they are talking about giving to India and China of 30% is 30% off $100 to $120 dollars a barrel, so the Indians and Chinese are paying $80 to $90 dollars a barrel with the discount which encourages them to buy more than they need because in a market where the retail price is over $100 any oil they don't need they can easily sell for a good profit anyway, but Russia, who was making a profit at $40 per barrel is still making a huge profit... their costs have not changed... just their profit margin.

Considering this is coming from EU, i won't take it too seriously. Europe's economic strength is not what it used to be and it doesn't look like it will get better any time soon.

Yes, the EUs genius plan to screw the Russians was to build large gas storage sites in Europe and then buy extra gas in the summer that they can use in the winter when the gas is expensive and save money.

Most of the gas storage sites they let the Russians build so they own them, but the Russians aren't stupid and have only been supplying gas that the EU has ordered and paid for so they haven't filled their storage sites in the EU.... they have been filling gas storage sites in Russia instead.

The EU expected to cheat the Russians and they expected the Russians to build the storage sites and they would seize them and use them when they needed them... they thought they could get cheaper gas by not having long term contracts and instead buying gas in auctions... but again Russia isn't that stupid... they don't have to sell for prices that are too low... and with no long term contracts they are not obliged to continue pumping gas filling their own storage tanks that the EU countries could steal.

The result of their scheming and plans was to more than quadruple gas prices from the cheapest source on the planet....

EU, you don't have to be genius to notice that. Basically, they are living on borrowed time.
I didn't hear US saying anything, so i will be very skeptical. Europe has been militarily and politically a midget even 20 years ago, and now it is even less so.

If the EU uses its position as major customer of Russian gas to close out other customers from Russia then Russia would have to say that the EU is doing everything it can to end its use of gas so long term there is no future for gas sales there even though coal fired power stations were being closed so the gas sales were expected to increase dramatically, but Russia can just cut their losses and find other customers and if the EU threatens sanctions on those other customers then Russia can just say they wont supply gas to any country that threatens sanctions on their other customers...

The EU uses gas for more than just heating and electricity generation... their chemical industries also use large amounts of it too in a variety of situations and purposes... a lot of their glass blowing industry uses gas because it was so cheap yet is easier to control the temperature than with coal or wood fired furnaces...

Europe isn't a monopsony client of Russian energy, and energy like oil can be easily transported elsewhere.

Ironically the shipped oil deliveries are the ones that were banned by the EU which are the easiest to send on to other customers... the piped oil is cheaper and more convenient and less easy to give away to support nazis and crazies in Ukraine and Washington respectively.

Just like Europe can switch suppliers, so can Russia switch customers.

The core difference is that Europe bought Russian gas because it was the cheapest... customers around the world could only dream of getting gas that cheap... till now. And the simple and obvious result is that Europe are going to have to pay more for their gas from now on... and Russia will likely get more money for the gas they sell to other countries.

Europe really showed Russia...

Russia is the natural replacement for either Australia or Canada. As the country with the largest landmass on Earth, Russia also has the richest deposits of basically every single natural resource. And what Russia doesn't have, it is because they never bothered prospecting and developing the resource.

And the North Sea Route, the rail links the Russians have been expanding and air travel from Russia to China and back cannot be interfered with by any other country... ironic because those links were developed to make trade between the EU and Asia cheaper... and it still will but I doubt the EU will accept stuff via train that has travelled across Russia because they are idiots...

It looks like the article has been written by an Ukr though, so granted making sense is not necessarily the priority.

It is clutching at straws trying to justify another sanction idea where they can sanction other countries to try to isolate Russia... even if they could get that to work it is more likely to isolate the west but the west thinks they are the centre of the universe and therefore isolating the west is not possible or a consideration.

If the West doesn't want to buy Russian oil for the price its sold at, then that's their call and always has been. Russia can no more force them to buy their oil than any retailer on the high street can force a window-shopper to make an actual purchase.

They don't buy Russian oil or Russian gas as a charity to help out Russia... they buy it because it is super cheap... giving up that cheap energy and letting rival countries buy that cheap energy is suicide of the obvious kind and is being driven from the US, but it will be the EU that is damaged while teh US will declare Russian oil and Russian Uranium fuel rods as strategically critical and something that cannot be touched by sanctions... which is not to say Russia wont impose their own sanctions on such sales... which would be hilarious.

Dude have you seen how that has worked until now? Do you think we are all retards? GTFO

If something someone says is obviously wrong then it should be easy to explain why... no need for shooting the messenger, though messengers need to realise if you keep posting western propaganda the some members will be sick of reading something they come here to get away from so Caviat Emptor (be wary of buyer) or that should be Cavere nuntius (be wary of messenger).

Already the Saudis and Algerians told the EU to f off with increase oil production.

Most oil producing nations have suffered due to western energy manipulations that were intended to damage Russia and Venezuela... they are now making hay while the sun shines and they won't want to do any rain dances just to please the west.

Just because they will do this or that, doesn't mean it works. And judging by previous demands, nothing they did work.

Based on the wests history I would say go ahead and try it... odds are it will backfire and push the rest of the world together against the west faster.

That's why hitting with sanctions China or India would economically kill EU and US. Dependence is mutual. Neither EU nor US can live without products services form both countries without immediate industrial collapse. Perhaps there will be some political struggle but the more west pushes the faster resistance will grow (rejecting USD/EU for commerce, own banking/trade or social/sport organizations, political aliances). In short the more west keeps pressing the weaker it gets.

And that is key... the west has created the Russia today that has technology and production and energy and resources and food of its own and they pushed them away... if they push on the rest of the world they have the dilemma that if they pushed them away in the past there was no real alternative to the west so those isolated countries suffered economically, but with the rise of Russia and China and therefore also the potential rise of India and Brazil and South Africa, then countries pushed away from the west are actually getting released from the thumb of control the west used to hold them down... countries like India and Algeria and Argentina and Chile and countries around Asia and Africa and Central and South America could grow and develop and even thrive without the west kicking in their straw houses all the time with wars and petty regional conflicts they encourage or create.

Even Turkey buys gas or nuclear power plants, S-400 from Russia. any sanctions yet?

Well Turkey did get kicked out of the F-35 programme but that will likely a blessing in disguise...

More importantly the US buys Russian gas and Russian oil and also Russian Uranium for their nuclear power stations... what EU sanctions are being put on the US?

In order for sanctions to come at full effect, they must be applied to third countries that are helping out Russia bypass those sanctions

They are not bypassing sanctions. They already sell oil and gas and coal and Uranium to countries around the world, if the EU does not want to buy any of those things from Russia that is fine... they are fully entitled to do that... cancel your orders, put cement in the pipes.

What they don't have the right to do is impose their own sanctions on countries that continue to buy from Russia.

The enormous hipocracy is that the EU intends to keep on buying Russian gas and Russian oil but is threatening to impose sanctions on other countries that buy Russian gas and Russian oil.

The EU buys Russian energy because they NEED it... if the EU threatens one of Russias customer countries Russia can respond simply by stopping all sales of oil and gas to the EU till they remove their sanctions... problem is solved no matter what the EU does... if they ditch the sanctions they look weak, and if they stop buying Russian energy they will actually become very weak economically and militarily... politically they always were weak... after the show only the fool goes back stage to complain to the ventriliquists dummy that some of the jokes he told were offensive... you talk to washington not brussels... talking to brussels is a courtesy for show and egos in the west but is a total waste of time as the minsk agreements showed.

We all can assume this as a fact now, and not as an opinion.

Why? Because western think tanks think it is a good idea?

The solutions to such a move are obvious and very very effective... it would be a very stupid thing to do... so they might do it... but only because it wont effect the US... there is no way the US will stop purchases and there is no way the EU will sanction the US in this... so ultimately it will only the EU will suffer by damaging ties with third party countries and losing cheap energy from Russia... so of course it is probably an idea that came from the US.

The cap on oil or gas, would be a smart way to do it regarding raw materials. Most argue that it just can't be enforced upon India or China. That they will never accept such cap. We'll see how it will work out, if ever implemented.

If they are paying in Rubles of Yuan or Indian currency how will the west know what they are paying... they can't use SWIFT so they will have no idea.

Regarding high tech, a third party enforced ban, would be way more diffiult to implement. There can be a ton of companys operating in that environment, and trying to bypass sanctions.

A western company could simply sell its technology to a company operating in Russia... the way Thales did legally with Thermal Imaging technology... Russia has plenty of state of the art technology... in some areas they lack the ability or capacity to mass produce it in commercial volumes... but then western imports from already set up production infrastructure that already serves the rest of the world would make the profit potential so low it would be too risky.
With import bans the market becomes much bigger and open... much like imports of EU food led to a massive investment in food production in Russia where the market was mostly theirs. Lots fo EU countries tried to bypass the ban by relabelling their products as made in non EU countries, but a massive Russian food production capacity was created that now earns more in exports than military equipment.

Anway, my main point, is that a country can not be dependend on others in order to survive (even more to thrive) on the complex chain of manufacturing that we currently have globally. Being dependend on India or China, ain't an option. No matter how friendly the Russia regime sees them.

Russia is rejecting the west, or more precisely is following their own interests protecting themselves in Ukraine knowing that the West will cut all ties with them for doing that... Russia had no real choice.

Russia isn't going to just survive with trade with China and India... they are looking to the rest of the world... BRICSA will expand and grow and develop... South Africa is a country with problems but with enormous potential... you could say the same about Brazil and India... Russia and China have shown they can say no to the west and still grow and develop to the point where both are considered more dangerous in the west than ISIS... to most Russians that probably sounds a bit offensive but essentially it means Russia can destroy the western world as we know it... something ISIS couldn't manage.

Russia and China can destroy the west not just with nukes but also by being an alternative path forward in terms of civlisation and development... they are not western and are no longer trying to be... and that scares the west... look at how many developed cultures they have destroyed...

Why does anyone have to spend time explaining why beggars can't be choosers? So the EU clown customers
only have the freedom to vote with their feet and shop elsewhere. They clearly cannot invade Russia, install a puppet
regime and then have their quislings give fellatio. So, EU-tards, take your shopping cart somewhere else or process your
own excrement, whatever. Barking ludicrous terms at Russia is not going to create reality for you.

Russia has localized the industrial cleaning of noble and other gases used for the IC manufacturing industry as well as other
applications. Before February 24, Russia supplied raw Neon, etc., but Ukraine had the cleaning operations.

Russia is also boosting its GLONASS ground station network and preparing for a future attempt to cut it off from GPS.
This is not a viable option for NATzO now, but things change.

Who is Elvira Sakhipzadovna? The head of the CBR is Elvira Nabiullina.

Praise from frothing at the mouth enemies is nothing but spite.

Nabiullina is still pushing the monetarist agenda and this faction is still a problem for Russia. They are back at the shtick of attracting
investors who do nothing but generate capital flight through siphoning. These magical investors only engage in negative investment
and the monetarists do not admit the existence of negative investment. The CBR should be setting the prime rate to 2% now. There
is no evidence of any inflationary pressure in Russia. It has collapsed to near zero a few weeks after the biggest sanctions attack ever
for Russia. The ruble does not need extra appreciation, so drop the rate now.

I think the current rate is ok. Low rates only prop up house inflation and zombie companies. Just give reduced rates to industry to compensate them.
At best reduce the key loan rate up to 8%.

For an example of how low rates actually hurt your economy and industry you need to look no further than Japan.

lancelot wrote:I think the current rate is ok. Low rates only prop up house inflation and zombie companies. Just give reduced rates to industry to compensate them.
At best reduce the key loan rate up to 8%.

For an example of how low rates actually hurt your economy and industry you need to look no further than Japan.

Russians always complain about not enough small and medium sized companies in the country. Well, these companies have
a really hard time when the borrowing costs are enough to make them uncompetitive against large companies. Small businessmen
have made this point clear over and over. This has nothing to do with QE and debt-drive GDP rackets like in the west. Russia
needs a functional banking system.

Kiko wrote:

kvs wrote:

lancelot wrote:I think the current rate is ok. Low rates only prop up house inflation and zombie companies. Just give reduced rates to industry to compensate them.
At best reduce the key loan rate up to 8%.

For an example of how low rates actually hurt your economy and industry you need to look no further than Japan.

Russians always complain about not enough small and medium sized companies in the country.   Well, these companies have
a really hard time when the borrowing costs are enough to make them uncompetitive against large companies.   Small businessmen
have made this point clear over and over.   This has nothing to do with QE and debt-drive GDP rackets like in the west.   Russia
needs a functional banking system.  

You're right on the point that Russia needs to boost SME development, kvs. What do you make of negative interest rates, now that inflation in Russia is been under control due to the strengthening of the ruble.
As the ECB and Fed are now definitely moving away from QE & heading to the adoption of positive key rates, in my opinion it would be wise for CBR to move forward to a negative real interest policy (although not a QE one) down in line of sight as a Russian counterpoint to G7 and NATO which are now clearly heading towards economic recession and peak inflation (stagflation).

I think that going as far as zero and negative real rates is not something Russia needs. Having sane lending rates for business would be a major
boost without the problems we see in the west (and Turkey) where the central banks are afraid to raise interest rates because debt is massive
and would induce recessions. Having positive, but sane, lending rates would keep Russia out of this hole.

Negative interest rates are a hack that stimulates growth without having the proper conditions for growth. Russia has a lot of real growth
capacity and the problem is that the CBR is stifling it with its paranoid or saboteur interest policy. People attribute to Nabiullina credit which
she does not merit. The lack of inflationary instability in Russia is not because of her interest policies. It is because Russia is still a transition
economy that is on a development path.