LMFS wrote: The more the Kiev junta delays their capitulation, the more likely is that a federation of independent republics/oblasts is created that can work towards normalization of their political life (i.e. being part of the Russian world according to the historical justice, instead of being shamelessly used as a tool against Russia) in the southeast and maybe even other regions in central Ukraine. If they want to name themselves Federations of Novorussia and Malorussia, well, I would not oppose... Then Lvov can keep the glory of naming themselves Ukraine if they want, being the actual frontier between the Russian and the Western world it would make at least some sense, and this "Ukraine" will indeed need to be neutral and inoffensive. OR ELSE.
I'd disagree with relation to Lvov part. It couldn't be let on itself. It has to be controlled by Moscow. I.e. military, politically , justice and education. Yes federalization of Ukraine will be pretested by west. But IMHO will be carried out.
One of the Russian Twitter people commented on this stockpiling phenomenon a while back too, saying that some family member of theirs when doing USSR military service in the 1980s saw vehicular stockpiles that even had T-34s left, in mint condition all covered in grease and paper to prevent corrosion. Rather safe to say that those were gotten rid of though, as Russia rather recently bought T-34s from some South East Asian country (I don't remember which) to be used for historical parading duties. But T-55s and onward still remain here and there in massive numbers. Soviet war planning was like that.
The T-34s came from Laos after it purchased T-90s. Vietnam still has T-34s in reserve along with SU-100s
According to Shitter rumours Azov and other Orcs are retreating to the Azovstal plant for a last stand. Dumb move. Less civilians in the area = job for the VKS.
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Hole wrote: Western circles guessing how it will end. Still to big, if you ask me.
If it were me, I'd let a permanently demilitarized Ukrainian state north and west of the Dniepr with no access to the sea. I'd leave Kiev as its Capital, but it would be a landlocked country with little to no industry, and a 110,000 man police force that would be fully armed and equipped with Russian weapons, but with no tanks, no artillery, no air force, no weapons labs, no arms makers.
Russian Defense Ministry: Russian Armed Forces took control of the settlements of Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported on the progress of the advances of the Russian troops on March 17. This was told by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov.
According to the representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, continuing the successful offensive, the armed forces of the Russian Federation took control of the settlements of Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka. According to the report, the advance of the troops for the day amounted to 10 kilometers.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense spoke about the progress of the advancement of the LPR and DPR troops. The troops of the republics fought for the city of Severodonetsk and the settlement of Marinka.
On Thursday, February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced during a televised address that a special military operation was beginning to protect the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Press Secretary of the head of state Dmitry Peskov drew attention to the fact that the operation is carried out with the aim of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: 6,894 citizens from 21 countries remain hostage at the terrorist battalions of Ukraine
6,894 citizens from 21 foreign countries, as well as the crews of 70 foreign ships blocked in the seaports of Ukraine, continue to be held hostage by the militants of the territorial defense battalions. This was stated by the head of the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev.
Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported on the downed Mi-24 helicopter near the village of Sarana. According to the agency, operational-tactical, army and unmanned aircraft hit 34 military facilities of Ukraine.
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Point 5) USA SPEAKING FROM EXPERIENCE LOL Point 6) if it's ok for Ukraine then it's ok for Russia to do it.
Updates
1) US intel sharing with Ukraine "is making a difference" per @DeptofDefense UnderSec for Intel Ronald Moultrie tells HASC Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations "It's accurate. It's timely. And it's actionable" he says "They are pleased with what we are providing"
2) Russian troops in Rubizhne now
3) The Spanish Prime Minister said in Bucharest that the economic effects of the war in Ukraine are severe
4) 28 buses were evacuated from settlements of Kyiv region to safe places
5) Blinken: U.S. has a "strong sense" of what Russia could do next - a false flag attack involving chemical weapons, "manufacturing" events to justify greater use of military force, employing mercenaries and "systematically" kidnapping local officials and replacing them with puppets
6) Russia recruiting foreign fighters for Ukraine - "We have not seen a flow of fighters" from the MiddleEast, per @CENTCOM Gen McKenzie "We just haven't seen much of that yet out of Syria. And we look at that pretty closely" "That could change" he notes
7) Kadyrov of Chechnya announced additional 1000 fighters to go to Ukraine
8 ) Putin and Zelensky may meet after the deal is finalized, possibly in the coming weeks - Adviser to the President's Office Mykhailo Podoliak
9) Russia Puts UNSC Ukraine Resolution on Hold, Calls for Emergency Meeting on US Biolabs Russia is halting its call for a vote on its draft resolution on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and instead is calling for an emergency meeting to address the US bio-laboratories in that country, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia said.
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Isos wrote:Slovakia should have kept its own S-300 because they will end up like this as soon as they start using them. Now thry are left with no air defence system and their own doesn't help ukraine.
Just some smart assess trying to renew their outdated AD assets for free... but I doubt they get anything better from US in exchange, or even anything at all
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In Putin's vision for the world, a medieval narrative resurfaces -no wonder, since the current Kiev regime falsely claims to be the sole descendant of the Kievan Rus'. The Mongols & Tartars allowed the Moscow's rise while Kiev was under Polish-Lithuanian Catholic rule until 1654, when it reunited with Orthodox Russia. She would still be an empire w/o Ukraine, but an incomplete 1.
In Mariupol, there is a cleansing of neo-Nazi militants https://youtu.be/mtKpJozVMbc
limb wrote: Also, this shows that some type of UV MAWS is essential for tanks, so they can pop smoke when an ATGM is approaching. Also you guys say that the javelin has a conspicuous plume from the rocket. I guess it's not conspicy because the tank crew didn't see it.
What makes you think it was Javelin, not RPG or AT-4? Javelin climbs up to 150 meters for top attack and 60 meters for direct attack. Also, crew ain't dumb, we don't know if they have smoke dispensers loaded, it wouldn't change the fact. It was prepared killzone with multiple angles of attack.
The Javelin has two engagement modes Top-Attack and Direct. If the target is to close it will not be able to be launched in Top-Attack mode. Since this is a battle within a city my guess would be that Top-Attack mode wasn't even possible unless launched from the roof of a building with clear line of sight to the tank.
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Isos wrote:Slovakia should have kept its own S-300 because they will end up like this as soon as they start using them. Now thry are left with no air defence system and their own doesn't help ukraine.
Just some smart assess trying to renew their outdated AD assets for free... but I doubt they get anything better from US in exchange, or even anything at all
You are entirely accurate.
Poland is still waiting for combat jets from the U.S.A., for which it has already fully paid a few years ago.
Up to today, not even a single one has arrived.
Slovak government is extremely naive to think it will get anything in exchange.
Or they are not naive, but have entered into a tributary relationship with Ukraine, like it has been the case for years now with nearby Poland.
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Hole wrote: Western circles guessing how it will end. Still to big, if you ask me.
I am not going to pretend that I find it reasonable, nor that I am some kind of particularly knowledgeable person in these matters, but...
I am absolutely convinced that Putin views this as a civilizational war first and foremost now, to correct the perceived problems that the USSR and its collapse caused for the "Russian heartland". He's on the Alexander Solzhenitsyn/Ivan Ilyin track.
It has morphed beyond mere modern realpolitik, beyond alignments and such. It probably could have been avoided if the west had stayed out of Kiev, but now it's gone so far it's like all or nothing as far as Russia is concerned.
So, regarding that map and in light of the above: Kiev is where Russian relics are still held (Muromets etc), and was the Russian capital for a while, after Novgorod and before Moscow and St. Petersburg/Petrograd.
The Ukrainian nationalist phenomenon, and their radically anti-Russian bandera-folks that this entire operation is supposed to target have their actual heartland in the old Polish-Lithuanian regions far west, with Lviv/Lwow/Lemberg as the "capital"...
So, my entirely amateurish and possibly stupid take is that Russia now seeks to pacify and eventually re-absorb Catherine the Greats Novorossiya, and all the Russian lands east of the Dnepr up to Kiev. Then I don't think Russia minds leaving Galicia and its immediate surroundings as some rump state or whatever. Don't think they would even mind much if Hungary, Slovakia and Poland retook some of their historical lands there either.
It's an incredibly drastic move all in all, especially in this day and age when we've gotten so used to rather immobile borders for a couple of generations (well, Yugoslavians beg to differ I guess), but historically speaking it's standard European business.
Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:24 pm; edited 2 times in total
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franco wrote:Ukrainians are apparently counterattacking around Nikolaev.
https://twitter.com/spriter99880
I never liked that operation. The Russian offensive on Nikolayevsk I mean. Not nearly enough forces, and not enough focus on protecting the flanks. A withdraw, regroup and concerted attack would work a lot better just in my arm chair general opinion. Be interesting to see the response to this.