mr_hd wrote:I will add Russian forces are also way too much spread and low in supplies. Attack on couple of big axes proved unsustainable with the forces Russia send since Ukraine is just way too big country. In order to contninue with invasion Russia will need send much more people and equipment.
There is that opinion from Strelkov, that Russia spread out over too many axis.
However he is thinking in terms of Blitzkrieg
Rather the Russian strategy seems to be a variant of deep battle order, where you actually attack over as many axis as possible. Then stop the attack there were you find heavy resistance, and continue and exploit the attack where resistance is less. Of course this you usually do when you have a numerical superiority, not inferiority.
This seems to be confirmed by the constant hide & seek played by the Russian amphibious forces off the coast of Odessa, forcing the Ukrainians to keep brigades there rather than transfering them to Nikolayev
And also by the Belarussian exercise just a few days ago that pulled the Belarussian army up to the borders with Lutsk, but then went back to their barracks. This forces the Ukrainians to keep their 3 brigades in Western Ukraine there for now too, rather than sending them to push back the Russians from Kiev.
It's anyone's guess where the next big push will be, but at the moment the Russian side is content to just creep forward around Kharkov and Kiev, and lure the enemy into desperate counter-attacks. One was already attempted a week ago near Kiev, where the Russian forces withdrew, destroyed the attackers with artillery, and then resumed their previous positions
Ukraine is indeed low in ammunition and basics supplies, however country is not under weapons embargo and does have quite big financial assistance - so this situation will be overcome given there is couple of more weeks that they can keep this intensity of fighting. Time so far is on Ukrainian side.
They're very low on fuel and a lot of ammo. Financial assistance is rather irrelevant at the moment, their economy is barely functional and all their repair workshops and defense industries have been taken out too, they can't fix or make more weapons. They can get stuff from the West, but if its too big and clumsy they won't have time to train on it anyway. They're getting partisan weapons, and it seems the West has been banking on a partisan battle since the beginning. Which is something Russia is trying to counter as well, by not extending itself too much and giving time for the native Ukrainian forces on its side (the DNR/LNR) to finish up Mariupol and have a big propaganda victory.
The real trouble for the Ukrainian side is the propaganda waning off as it becomes more and more absurd, and the psychological barrier of accepting defeat sweeping over their soldiers. If that happens, they will begin to surrender in large numbers.