Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

Because it's psyops to point out paint peels off when exposed to high heat.....RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT. Last I checked paint does that, so when a vehicle gets torched there is a chance the paint will peel off based on where the flame is burning, that is not factually wrong. Christ why don't you say something else stupid.

mnrck wrote:

owais.usmani wrote: #BREAKING Russian air forces targeted Kiev airport after arriving weapon shipments came from Poland
   — Intelsky (@Intel_sky) March 25, 2022

Maybe include Turkey drones as reported by Intel Slava " An-124 heavy transport aircraft of the Ukrainian company Antonov State Enterprise returned to Europe, bringing with it new Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs for the needs of the Ukrainian army. Judging by the route, the Hungarians did not give an air corridor. The An-124 did not fly directly to Ukraine, landing in Polish Zheshov - the city is used as one of the main hubs for the supply of equipment for the needs of Kyiv."
https://t.me/intelslava/23575

Eh kinda thing BS on this one, why would they ship it to Keiv knowing it would get attacked, Normally supplies are sent to Lviv.

On the subject of the Ukrainian insurgency, it's a recurring theme so I did a quick piece on it just before the war started.

It's all common sense observations, as it's self evident.

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/02/23/guerra-de-guerrillas-en-ucrania-es-posible/

I do apologize for having underestimated the will to fight of the Ukrainian army due to the fanaticism of some units and the widespread use of terror. Instead of surrendering wholesale, only half of them surrender, when they can, and the rest fight to the death.

But I was right even if they fight they were bound to lose, the NATO trained Ukros might fight well at the infantry small unit level, squad and platoon, but what is lacking as in 2014-2015 is the ability to fight coordinated at the company and battalion level, let alone large scale maneuvers. There's simply nobody able to command above captain level, to coordinate an attack beyond what they can see, to arrange for an artillery preparation and a combined armor and infantry attack of different units and timetables.

As it's amply shown in the current fighting. Even at the decisive points, like the fighting in Izyum, enemy counterattacks are piecemeal. One was noteworthy because the ukrops used an entire company of 15 tanks. That's all.

Like 2014 it's a strange war, there are tens of thousands involved, but due to the great lengths of the front and the dispersion of forces, most combats small scale. Other than when the ukrops are encircled in a town or city like Volnovaka and Mariupol, and fight block for block, or stuff a fortified town like Maryinka or Avdeveka with thousands of troops to man bunkers and houses, most engagements are a few dozens of soldiers and a few tanks and armored vehicles.

Even the important battle at Izyum seems to have involved only a few battalions on either side.

There's not going to be a lasting insurgency because there can't be one. Demographics. This isn't Iraq where you had an occupied nation with a high fertility rate (lots of young people - and the young fight wars) and surrounded by other countries with high fertility rates which could send added fighters. And with a religion that considers it offensive for unbelievers to be near their holy sites.

Ukraine has a low fertility rate. There isn't a surplus of young men. And fighters won't keep coming from foreign countries either because Poland, the Baltics, etc. are also in that aging demographic group. In fact, they are even worse. Because many of their young *go West* and aren't going to be around to cause trouble. So where are these discussed insurgent fighters supposed to come from?

Ukraine is a unique animal. Better trained, informed, and equipped army but no capability for long term partisan/insurgency activities. The die hards are going to literally die off - with nobody to replace them.

Sujoy wrote:We have been discussing what are the various weapons, sensors etc that the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine currently lack.

As I've mentioned recently if your platform (helicopter, tank etc) is targeted by several ATGMs, MANPADs from various angles even countermeasures will fail.

Take for instance the shooting down of the Ka-52 helos. It is quite clear from the video that countermeasures spoofed at least 1 missile out of the 3-4 missiles launched, and the Ka 52 that grounded reportedly had the Igla counterjam and home on the countermeasure pod. And yet the Ukranians were able to bring down two Ka-52s. The same applies for armoured convoys and tanks as well. Even if they had an APS it would not be able to neutralize several ATGMs fired at the tank.

U.S, U.K did not have to deal with this huge issue in either Afghanistan or Iraq. Local insurgents could at best fire one ATGM or MANPAD at a time.

I think in the very near future, we will see the Kremlin invest massively in the development of countermeasures, both hard kill and soft kill that are designed from the outset to deal with multiple incoming projectiles simultaneously.

From the pilot's interview: during the raid in Gostomel, they recorded EIGHTEEN MANPADS launches on their helicopter. After that, the helicopter was damaged, made an emergency landing, and the crew was successfully evacuated and now continues combat service. Tell me at least one example of the work of Western aviation in such conditions.

My sincere condolences @auslander!

There NEEDS to be a public trial once the war is over. Preferably with judges from neutral countries.

Everybody just needs to see that.

The lucky ones

Spectacular when filmed at night. No doubt equally so at their destination.



Speaking of destinations

There's been several large surrenders in towns outside Kiev today. It's remarkable how 180 the situation on the ground seems to be vs the stuff they print in media here in the west.

Scorpius wrote:

Sujoy wrote:We have been discussing what are the various weapons, sensors etc that the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine currently lack.

As I've mentioned recently if your platform (helicopter, tank etc) is targeted by several ATGMs, MANPADs from various angles even countermeasures will fail.

Take for instance the shooting down of the Ka-52 helos. It is quite clear from the video that countermeasures spoofed at least 1 missile out of the 3-4 missiles launched, and the Ka 52 that grounded reportedly had the Igla counterjam and home on the countermeasure pod. And yet the Ukranians were able to bring down two Ka-52s. The same applies for armoured convoys and tanks as well. Even if they had an APS it would not be able to neutralize several ATGMs fired at the tank.

U.S, U.K did not have to deal with this huge issue in either Afghanistan or Iraq. Local insurgents could at best fire one ATGM or MANPAD at a time.

I think in the very near future, we will see the Kremlin invest massively in the development of countermeasures, both hard kill and soft kill that are designed from the outset to deal with multiple incoming projectiles simultaneously.

From the pilot's interview: during the raid in Gostomel, they recorded EIGHTEEN MANPADS launches on their helicopter. After that, the helicopter was damaged, made an emergency landing, and the crew was successfully evacuated and now continues combat service. Tell me at least one example of the work of Western aviation in such conditions.

The only succesful hits were from russian made Igla missiles. Stingers are a total failure.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:There's been several large surrenders in towns outside Kiev today. It's remarkable how 180 the situation on the ground seems to be vs the stuff they print in media here in the west.

They surrounded the Russian Army (as a whole, not a few units) and then decided to surrender. This is what CNN will tell us.


Irak

Filmed in Chernobyl.

Updates

1) Russian troops entering Slavutich town. Rumours mayor has been kidnapped.

2) The Biden Administration is set to impose a new round of sanctions, this time going after companies that are part of Russia's military and intelligence procurement networks

3) Germany sent 1500 Strela air defense missiles and 100 MG3 machine guns to Ukraine. And then 8 million small arms ammunition. 350,000 packages of food, 50 vehicles for medical transport and material for medical treatment were also sent

4) Macron: I hope to speak with Putin in the coming hours about plans to evacuate Mariupol. French President Emmanuel Macron says that France, Turkey, Greece will carry out an "exceptional humanitarian operation" "for all those who want to leave" the Ukrainian city of Mariupol

5) 350 people were evacuated from Mykolaiv to Odesa

Assume this is in Mariupol. If so it was clearly an undefendible installation so the occupants must have died elsewhere.

Ignore most of the map but do we think that the UkA actually built defensive positions on the two fallback lines in that map, or are they in panic mode with bulldozers trying to do it now?

We heard of the Russians sweating it out at the end of long and vulnerable to ground/air attack supply lines. But just who actually has that problem?

Great respect to the Russian Navy during the special military operation.

Project 21631 small missile ship..


Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarine


3M14 Kalibr crusie missile


3K55 Bastion mobile coastal defence missile system

I don't believe so, while tactically it may make sense for them to move in that direction,

For their survival, the only real option is falling back behind the dnieper

They cannot do it at Nikopol, that's why Russia entered to Nikopol and Krivoy Rog, to block off the river at the lower bug by Zaporizhia,  either way the grasslands are flooded currently, its marshy and impossible to move equipment by the lower bug of the dnieper

So they can make their way towards Cherkassy, they don't have the option to settle into Poltava as that would just give Russia an easier time along a narrower front From Kharkov to the Dnieper

They're damned if they do and damned if they don't

JohninMK wrote:Ignore most of the map but do we think that the UkA actually built defensive positions on the two fallback lines in that map, or are they in panic mode with bulldozers trying to do it now?

This map does not make sense, especially about those arrows showing Russian attacks.
Chess teaches that you attack your enemy from behind and this is what Russia will do.

flamming_python wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/realGonzaloLira/status/1507449859112116226

We can't see any of the armored vehicles too well in the vid, and that's a red flag potentially

Also the standard bullshit about Russian soldiers stealing food.

Russians don't even use grill armor, you pointed to this earlier yourself, and auslander did. This guy who post those videos is full of crap... He is less in the field than Murat or any other war correspondent.