Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

Cassad posted a good article from somebody else on the Ukranian military or what's left of it

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7547487.html#cutid1

DNR fighter discusses the high failure rate of NATzO munitions used by the Kiev regime forces. For this particular ammo, 30 mm frag grenade,
the failure rate is 1 in 3. It appears this is a Bulgarian product. Anyway, the Ukrs are getting trashy or expired munitions from their best
pals.

kvs wrote: Anyway, the Ukrs are getting trashy or expired munitions from their best
pals.

 

The quality of ammo  is proportional to the quality of friendship

kvs wrote:

DNR fighter discusses the high failure rate of NATzO munitions used by the Kiev regime forces.   For this particular ammo, 30 mm frag grenade,
the failure rate is 1 in 3.   It appears this is a Bulgarian product.   Anyway, the Ukrs are getting trashy or expired munitions from their best
pals.

 

Not too surprising. I think the aim is to sell off all the Soviet surplus stock and replace it with new munitions from Uncle Sam. In fact I think that's a whole part of the United State's goals from this conflict and why Biden, Boris "Tiny" Johnson and Jens Stoltenberg goaded Putin into invading Ukraine. I mean if the former east bloc states are using Soviet era or domestic weapons systems then American arms makers aren't making money. However, if they gift those old systems to the Ukrainians and buy American weapons systems then American arms makers make a killing. Also, it goes to show that the United States and NATO very cynically want to keep this war going and hope to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian. Even if Zelensky wanted peace, and I don't think he does, NATO would never allow him to seek it.

The other Atlanticist goals for this war?

- Enslave Europe to American oil and gas

- Foment Regime Change in Moscow and replace Putin with Oligarchs who will break up and sell off Russia to the highest bidder. The oligarchs in America and Europe dream of a return to the 1990s when Russia was being sold off wholesale. In fact, Putin's end of the fire sale is the main reason they hate him. This is very much a kulturkampf and its just as insidious and evil as the Hitlerite plan for Russia and its peoples.

- Cripple Russia so that they can stop China from growing influence in Central Asia via the Belt and Road initiative. Really this whole thing is but the latest chapter in the old Great Game.

If my damn phone didn't try to autolog on this forum a week ago I would have no Idea that my permaban was tweaked to one month, nice one

I do have to say that it's pretty interesting experience when you get angry for Russia wasting lives of it's soldiers in needless land war around Kiev and getting banned for it only for Shoigu himself to go on record couple of days later and say that you have been right all along  


So here are my 2 cents on several things:

The original mistake: Not exterminating VSU in Debaltseve 6 years ago and expanding control to entire Donetsk and Lughansk regions which would have created stable areas of control and would preempt all of this this  

Instead they took some scraps of land and pretended everything was cool while locals were getting slaughtered, FFS they didn't even took the control of Donetsk city, damn place is still getting shelled



The facts: Ukranian population is overwhelmingly composed of Nazis and any effort to spare them of being collateral damage is a waste of time and lives as these last 30 days have shown

That insanely disciplined radio silence religiously adhered to by entire Ukranian population is one of many evidences of this, one word from Zelensky and they all stopped posting immediately, oppressed civilians my ass...



What Russia should have done: If it's true that Ukraine was planning to attack Donbass Russia should have waited until they started and used that opportunity to launch mass aerial campaign to exterminate attacking VSU and spend at least a month on it until every last thing capable of using firearm was dead before committing any ground troops

Instead they sent their soldiers to race in like some stereotypical videogame NPC into pre-prepared ambushes and get slaughtered over nothing just because some old commies in Moscow thought that 30 million Nazis would be happy to see them

Instead of spending weeks and weeks bombing the Ukranians into the ground they decided to flush the lives of their soldiers down the toilet by sending them to the slaughter without and artillery or air support



What is at stake now: Whatever original plan or assumptions were it turned out to be complete horseshit and Russia is now in much bigger fight than they expected to be (which came as no surprise whatsoever to everyone but them)

Only way to achiever victory now is to keep the war going at all costs and not to stop until they reach Polish border, Ukraine can't be allowed to keep existing after this

If they fail to do this they will lose not just this war but their own statehood, USA and EU will get the chance to finish what they didn't manage to back in the 90s



How to win the war: They win this war just like every single war ever fought was won which is by killing the enemy

No pussyfooting, no crying over collateral damage, no humanitarian bullshit, start killing the Ukrainian military and keep killing them until there is nothing left, when they bring in fresh troops kill them too and keep doing it until every single moron dumb enough to resist is dead

If any ''civilian'' is still dumb enough to stay close to VSU then they are free to drop dead, they made their choice

Kill every single Ukrainian politician that shows up under drone camera

Not a single part of Ukraine can be allowed to stay independent otherwise EU will turn it into another West Germany and keep pouring free cash there to f*ck with Russia for decades to come




Syria made the world fear Russian conventional military again

This war has shredded any idea of conventional Russian deterrence down the shitter, USA and especially Europe no longer fear Russian military and prevailing line of thinking now is that if Ukraine can fight off Russia then it would be a cakewalk for NATO even without USA

It is a disaster and is also eroding Russian nuclear deterrence: if Russia is seen as too cowardly to take out Ukraine they will also be seen as afraid to use nuclear weapons if attacked by NATO which is invitation to war


Only way to correct this perception (and it absolutely must be corrected and fast) is to start stacking corpses and to stack them high, every single Ukrainian goon has to be killed ASAP and they need to start with that pocket in the East and then move westwards to finish the job no matter how long it takes

Russia will not bee seen as viable military power again unless the put at least 100k Nazis into the ground and advertise it as loud as possible

If they don't this will become Winter War 2 and I don’t need to tell you what happened as a result of that fiasco

Pussyfooting has to end otherwise Russia will end

Coming around the half-measure administration known as Putin and cadre eh.

Took him long enough... ban included.

Too many weaklings in the Kremlin with an oversized voice however. What is common sense to a lemming becomes 5D chess to an elite afraid of having his privilege's curtailed as a member of the global elite. Elites have much more in common with each other, no matter the nationality than with their average ethnic brethren. You'll be surprised to the lengths they'll go, and the decisions they'll take to belong to that group. Treason becomes relative. Sheep and cannon fodder be dammed.

Russians don't have to go all the way to Lvov... although for sure that they should not cede anything to the Poles or anybody else. **** them, and hard. But Kiev must definitely fall. To pullback from Kiev and then go back in... lets just say Russians would be pulling a rabbit out of the hat on the probability scales to pull that one off - not impossible however.

We know what's more probable as current events and facts on the ground shape up..... and that should terrify every Russian or Russia watcher with an emotional stake on the outcome. Don't think much has changed culturally between the clowns that dissolved an empire with a pen and those that rule now which are off-spring or youngling disciples of those that did. That pathology for destructive decision making is still an uncomfortably high threat for Russia as a state and the Russian people as a whole (including those outside with different "nationalities").

However if the Russian people fall, it wouldn't be the first time in history a tribe ceases to coalesce as a functional group. The weak fall, the strong persevere. It's always that simple.

History is filled with such. Russians won't be the last either.

PapaDragon wrote:
If my damn phone didn't try to autolog on this forum a week ago I would have no Idea that my permaban was tweaked to one month, nice one

I do have to say that it's pretty interesting experience when you get angry for Russia wasting lives of it's soldiers in needless land war around Kiev and getting banned for it only for Shoigu himself to go on record couple of days later and say that you have been right all along  


So here are my 2 cents on several things:

The original mistake: Not exterminating VSU in Debaltseve 6 years ago and expanding control to entire Donetsk and Lughansk regions which would have created stable areas of control and would preempt all of this this  

Instead they took some scraps of land and pretended everything was cool while locals were getting slaughtered, FFS they didn't even took the control of Donetsk city, damn place is still getting shelled

Quite right

But that was one of the conditions of gaining Minsk I guess. And Minsk, no matter it's ultimate futility, did at least buy Russia 8 years.
The West would have pressed Russia hard if the rebels were allowed to attempt recapture Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk back then - even though by Debaltsevo they were in a perfectly good military position to having ripped apart Ukrainian lines, and Mariupol was barely garrisoned.

I will remind everyone again - that in 2014 Russia was in no economic position to confront the West, even half as much as it's being arrayed against now. What's more China was still laying low back then, as were a bunch of other nations.

What Russia should have really done is back Yanukovich. If he was deposed in Kiev, so then evacuate him to Kharkov. That way there would be at least part of the Ukrainian military, security services, administrations and local elites that would have stayed loyal to him as the legitimate president, and would be prepared to form a front against the coupists in Kiev. But I guess that depends on Yanukovich himself. He seemed to prefer a quiet life in Rostov-on-Don and his stolen wealth.

The facts: Ukranian population is overwhelmingly composed of Nazis and any effort to spare them of being collateral damage is a waste of time and lives as these last 30 days have shown

That insanely disciplined radio silence religiously adhered to by entire Ukranian population is one of many evidences of this, one word from Zelensky and they all stopped posting immediately, oppressed civilians my ass...

Where do you think Russia has been getting all this juicy intel on in the first weeks - about which buildings have been taken over by Ukrainian military, mercenaries, or territorial defense units?
It's mostly HUMINT from the ground. Russia has plenty of informers in every city, and through the military, security services too. And presto the cruise missiles all hit home.
Podolyaka, the main pro-Russian Ukrainian infowar agent - constantly claims to be getting information on the ground from this or that point on the front lines from locals. These are ordinary civilians, and they give information to him. If needed, he presumably passes it on to Russian intel.

I wouldn't say there's radio silence and far be it any religious adheration to it. People are smart enough not to post under their own names in social media about things they've seen - they know they'll get a visit from the SBU and disappear.
The Ukrainian regime functionaries have already boasted about liquidating a local informer in Kramatorsk on Facebook.

What Russia should have done: If it's true that Ukraine was planning to attack Donbass Russia should have waited until they started and used that opportunity to launch mass aerial campaign to exterminate attacking VSU and spend at least a month on it until every last thing capable of using firearm was dead before committing any ground troops

Instead they sent their soldiers to race in like some stereotypical videogame NPC into pre-prepared ambushes and get slaughtered over nothing just because some old commies in Moscow thought that 30 million Nazis would be happy to see them

Instead of spending weeks and weeks bombing the Ukranians into the ground they decided to flush the lives of their soldiers down the toilet by sending them to the slaughter without and artillery or air support

It's easy to judge in retrospect but yes the Russian strategy was naive.
And yes they should have waited until the Ukrainians attacked. Because the fact is that Russia attacked and even pro-Russian Ukrainians will make this synaptic connection between Russia invading = their misery.

What is at stake now: Whatever original plan or assumptions were it turned out to be complete horseshit and Russia is now in much bigger fight than they expected to be (which came as no surprise whatsoever to everyone but them)

Only way to achiever victory now is to keep the war going at all costs and not to stop until they reach Polish border, Ukraine can't be allowed to keep existing after this

If they fail to do this they will lose not just this war but their own statehood, USA and EU will get the chance to finish what they didn't manage to back in the 90s

Yes pretty much

Although I suspect that NATO will grab Western Ukraine one way or the other. NATO wouldn't want to escalate against Russia by sending in forces further, Russia wouldn't want to escalate by sending into Western Ukraine.

Ideally though Western Ukraine is needed. It offers the potential of a land-bridge to Serbia through Hungary.

How to win the war: They win this war just like every single war ever fought was won which is by killing the enemy

No pussyfooting, no crying over collateral damage, no humanitarian bullshit, start killing the Ukrainian military and keep killing them until there is nothing left, when they bring in fresh troops kill them too and keep doing it until every single moron dumb enough to resist is dead

If any ''civilian'' is still dumb enough to stay close to VSU then they are free to drop dead, they made their choice

Kill every single Ukrainian politician that shows up under drone camera

Not a single part of Ukraine can be allowed to stay independent otherwise EU will turn it into another West Germany and keep pouring free cash there to f*ck with Russia for decades to come

The Ukraine will be taken under military-administration and occupation like Germany was, or Italy or Japan, and some kind of new client state will be set-up eventually. That's just the details though.

As for no crying over collateral damage - we live in an era of information warfare. Image is key, as is positioning yourself as the opposite of the evils of your enemy. They murder their own people in Bucha, Kramatorsk. We save their own people. They want to provoke an ethnic war between Ukrainians and Russians. We say Ukrainians and Russians are the same greater people and we treat their civilians as we would treat our own.

This is what will win the war. Not killing everyone. But isolating the radicals from everyone else.

Syria made the world fear Russian conventional military again

This war has shredded any idea of conventional Russian deterrence down the shitter, USA and especially Europe no longer fear Russian military and prevailing line of thinking now is that if Ukraine can fight off Russia then it would be a cakewalk for NATO even without USA

They were always going to persuade themselves of their own propaganda.
Still, I think their generals know better.
Their populations meanwhile are just cannon fodder for the media war and maybe the real war, it's irrelevant if they respect the Russian military or not.

It's certainly true that the Russian military has revealed shortcomings, but then whose doesn't? Only those who have absolute control of censorship and narratives - i.e. NATO. And who don't engage with an enemy more powerful than Saddam's sanctioned Iraq - again NATO.

This is the biggest war since Korea. Many of the casualties were because of Russia's failed political strategy with the drive towards Kiev.
Still, the Russian military has shown that it adapts very quickly to new tactics and weapons - and this is very important.

It is a disaster and is also eroding Russian nuclear deterrence: if Russia is seen as too cowardly to take out Ukraine they will also be seen as afraid to use nuclear weapons if attacked by NATO which is invitation to war

Well Russia is warning them quite clearly not to go in, and have already annihilated mercs next to the Polish border. It has demonstrated the use of the Kinzhal missile.

So far the Pentagon is listening.

As for not taking out the Ukraine - the war is still on and Russia is still waging it. It has its own doctrine for doing so. Whether Russia will succeed in provoking a mass surrender or rout in the Donbass remains to be seen, but if it does then the Ukrainian propaganda strategy collapses.

Only way to correct this perception (and it absolutely must be corrected and fast) is to start stacking corpses and to stack them high, every single Ukrainian goon has to be killed ASAP and they need to start with that pocket in the East and then move westwards to finish the job no matter how long it takes

What makes you think Russia isn't?

There are about 40k Ukrainian military killed so far, but it's all for nothing if it doesn't destroy morale, if all the Ukrainian units fight to the last man rather than surrender - as their propaganda and control of the narrative is convincing them that they are winning against the Russian military
And there is little Russia can do about this other than telling the truth, through its own MoD, through its own infowar resources. That's exactly what it's doing.
Once again, Russia needs to provoke a mass surrender and show it - not kill every Ukrainian soldier; even the last surviving ones will still be convinced they're winning the war

Russia will not bee seen as viable military power again unless the put at least 100k Nazis into the ground and advertise it as loud as possible

It's important that Russia doesn't advertise itself as the new Genghis Khan either

Because Russia came with a mission of liberation and needs to convince the civilian population that it's protecting them better than the Ukrainian regime is, which is busy killing its own people for Hollywood stunts and sending its soldiers on suicide missions, promising them eternal paradise in the ranks of the Heavenly Hundreds and as 'Heroes of the Ukraine'.
It needs the support of the Ukrainian people to give its presence legitimacy, to get the economy up and running, to give up the positions of radicals and foreign mercs, and to convince their own to lay down arms

And part of that is getting Ukrainian soldiers to surrender, and playing down how much it has actually killed.

If they don't this will become Winter War 2 and I don’t need to tell you what happened as a result of that fiasco

Russia and the LDNR together are achieving a casualty ratio of 1:5, at least.
The problem is not killing everyone, it's winning the war, and preserving as many people on all sides and as much infrastructure as all sides as possible. Because all those people and all those cities are needed.

If every Ukrainian city is successfully turned into Mariupol however, then the war will go on for years. And there will be nothing and nobody left in the Ukraine after its 'won'. Russia will suffer plenty of its own dead too.
This cannot be allowed to happen.

Mariupol needs to be cleansed down to the last. All the NATO mercs, officers, whoever they have there have to be exposed. And shown that there is no escape or evacuation for any 'defenders'. And that the garrisons in Kharkov, Nikolayev, Odessa have something to think about.

Pussyfooting has to end otherwise Russia will end

We'll see how this current 'focus on the Donbass' goes.

Everything depends on Mariupol and the Donbass pocket. If it's all done successfully, the rest of the country will fold or defect much easier.

You can achieve a casualty ratio of 1:10, 1:15, 1:20.

That didn't stop the Vietnamese or the Afghans or anybody else from booting an invading force by denying the political victory required.

That's one of the more common talking points being thrown around by the damage control artists these days. As if they don't celebrate empire failures in Vietnam or Afghanistan despite American high kill ratios. Now Call of Duty kd's are popular to make excuses for the lack of visible facts on the ground not materializing.

I would prefer a 1:3 KD if at least half of both the political and economic elite of Ukraine were already dead. That would actually be more substantial progress towards a political solution that could actually last. That would actually encourage high level dissent and open way for Russian assets in "Ukranian" clothing to start to make headway and solidify in the halls of power. They're clearly not capable of doing so themselves, specially not against the clan with American/UK/EU backing (extensive).

ATLASCUB wrote:You can achieve a casualty ratio of 1:10, 1:15, 1:20.

That didn't stop the Vietnamese or the Afghans or anybody else from booting an invading force by denying the political victory required.

That's one of the more common talking points being thrown around by the damage control artists these days. As if they don't celebrate empire failures in Vietnam or Afghanistan despite American high kill ratios. Now Call of Duty kd's are popular to make excuses for the lack of visible facts on the ground not materializing.

I would prefer a 1:3 KD if at least half of both the political and economic elite of Ukraine were already dead. That would actually be more substantial progress towards a political solution that could actually last. That would actually encourage high level dissent and open way for Russian assets in "Ukranian" clothing to start to make headway and solidify in the halls of power.

That's exactly my point

Annihilating masses of Taliban and Afghan civilians did not win NATO the war. Their puppet government collapsed over the course of an 11-day offensive

And while 'shock and awe' succeeded in Iraq and the US took Baghdad in a month, most of the Iraqi army simply melted away to various competing militias that then fought a 10-year war with US troops and each other. That's not winning the war either. Iraq today is a puppet of Iran, with only Iraqi Kurdistan being a Mossad base. That's not really a victory for the US.

The kill-ratio is besides the point. What will win the war is collapsing morale, nullifying enemy propaganda and convincing the Ukrainian people of the Russian mission. Ukrainian soldiers will have nothing to die for, as their homes and families are not threatened.
This is the Russian doctrine and it's a good one. It just needs to execute it now in the Donbass region.

Regular wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

I don't know, a human wave maybe?

This is a desperate regime. They know if their tens of thousands troops there surrender or are routed, the Ukrainian military is finished, and so are they.

What Russia can do is keep them pinned with artillery bombardments. That will prevent any advance, and allow Russia to advance and split the pocket into many smaller ones. It can also jam and cut all the lines of communication.

They can also bombardment them with leaflets about Kiev's plans for them. Hasn't worked so far, but it's worth a shot.

The regime, yes, but don't think they will be able to force mass suicide. UA is known to play a mule and ignore some of the orders. They will slowly erode, surrender, die fighting, some will manage to retreat and that's about it. Even Azov is holding out till the last instead of going out guns blazing.

Also, I don't think the whole Ukrainian army is finished yet. Mobilization is still ongoing.

Ukrainian ATO forces will be the new Mariupol.

Ukraine can mobilise as many people as it wants. But it's only going to get untrained civilians.

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

If you blow up the rail junctions you will delay it.

Which it's starting to focus on. But ultimately I think it's challenging, there are still plenty of air defense systems in the western half of the country, so that makes getting a Su-34 up there and dropping bombs a risky prospect

You can probably do it with a cruise missile against a moving target.

But the value of that old junk they're sending; BMP-1s, T-72M1s is probably less than the value of the cruise missile.

What's in fact easiest, is waiting for those vehicles to be accumulated at some storage spot somewhere. Without letting on that you know where. And then - attack the equipment there. I think that's what's been happening thus far.

The Ukrainians aren't using air defenses by traditional means

There is no IADS to speak of, Russian SEAD missions destroyed their C3

The only computer intel and sat surveillance and recon info they're getting is from NATO and even then Russia hunted down the command posts that were downlink sites for this

Notice NATO e3 plays less of a factor now then it did at the start of Z day

Yes the Buk and Tor carry their own radars, but those are useless for true air defense because of the short range and the warning it give to SPO RWR of Russian aircraft

Most Ukrainian air defense are being used passively , by optical guidance

And we see how little of an effect it has as a serious air defense system

Yes they odd shot they get here and there with su35 ambushed, but it can be assumed reliably that optical guidance is what caused 99% of these ambushes

The sortie rate is still high for VKS missions

So it's not a military limitation or a technical one, but a political one

Papadragon is absolutely right, we should be leveling every single VSU unit that is observed across the board

They're already preparing their bags:

Kudrin denied information about emigration to Israel 09.04.2022.

The head of the Accounts Chamber Kudrin denied information about emigration to Israel.

The head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Alexei Kudrin , said that he was in Israel, but would soon return to Russia to make a report to the Federation Council.

Earlier, messages appeared on Telegram channels that Kudrin had been seen at a hotel in an Israeli resort.(!)

"There were rumors that I'm not in Moscow . That's right, for the weekend in Tel Aviv . I've been planning for a long time.

And on Tuesday I will speak in the Federation Council, present a report from the Accounts Chamber," Kudrin wrote in his Telegram channel.

https://ria.ru/20220409/kudrin-1782704318.html

AD is not a limitation to VKS

They take out Buk and Tor routinely ,

It's a political limitation, our forces don't have the freedom to operate without restriction

There is a very restricted rule of engagement for the airforce, and the ground forces

The political restrictions are what hampered the speed and progress of the operation from day 1

Those optical guided systems would not deter the bombardment for example of azovstal plant

But the political leadership forbids it

Arkanghelsk wrote:The Ukrainians aren't using air defenses by traditional means

There is no IADS to speak of, Russian SEAD missions destroyed their C3

The only computer intel and sat surveillance and recon info they're getting is from NATO and even then Russia hunted down the command posts that were downlink sites for this

Notice NATO e3 plays less of a factor now then it did at the start of Z day

Yes the Buk and Tor carry their own radars, but those are useless for true air defense because of the short range and the warning it give to SPO RWR of Russian aircraft

Most Ukrainian air defense are being used passively , by optical guidance

And we see how little of an effect it has as a serious air defense system

Yes they odd shot they get here and there with su35 ambushed, but it can be assumed reliably that optical guidance is what caused 99% of these ambushes

The sortie rate is still high for VKS missions

So it's not a military limitation or a technical one, but a political one

Papadragon is absolutely right, we should be leveling every single VSU unit that is observed across the board

All one of these Buks, Tors or whatever really needs is a laptop with an internet connection. That gets a message from NATO when an aircraft is on a trajectory to enter its engagement zone, together with its heading, altitude, speed and current position. Then the air defense system aligns its targeting radar to the right spot, switches it on, shoots a missile, and switches it off.

I suspect this is what's happening.

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

That is part of the political dimension in all of this. If Putin levels the Limey and Kraut leadership, and I would not shed a tear if he did, then you have a massive escalation snd very likely a nuclear war. The pressure was eased off of Kiev because Putin wanted to establish good will and get Zelensky more amiable to reach a deal. Unfortunately that failed. Frankly, and I know I am just an arm chair historian reading Glantz, Erickson, and Beevor so its not my place, but frankly Putin needs to his the Nazis hard and heavy sooner rather than later. Zelensky, and I hate quoting Nazis, is right. Donbass is decisive. The Uke army has got to be eradicated because if go extinct so does NATO's entire Third Reich 2.0 exercise. If the Russians are forced to retreat or lose ground then the world will be worse than ever for everyon involved.

Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian statehood

Why the Ukrainian "Carthage" should be destroyed: Russia in Ukraine is not confronted
with the excesses of Bandera, but with modern Ukrainian identity

https://russtrat.ru/reports/10-aprelya-2022-0010-9879

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55CjFiL8bX8

Aerial View of Azovstal in Mariupol

JohninMK wrote:Today's UK MoD map

Total BS....  A large enclave near Melitopol is "contested"???  They are asserting that Russia doesn't control the land bridge between Donbass and crimea, but only control a main highway and the corridor around it...  

Northern areas of Lugansk are not even shown as contested, but are apparently still Ukrop controlled...  

Not sure why anyone would give credence to the lies of the UK establishment.  These are the lying bastards who invented the whole "Novichok" fiasco in order to turn the aborted effort by Skripal to re-defect into a geopolitical hit on Russia.  Nothing they say can be believed.

ucmvulcan wrote:

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

That is part of the political dimension in all of this.  If Putin levels the Limey and Kraut leadership, and I would not shed a tear if he did, then you have a massive escalation snd very likely a nuclear war.   The pressure was eased off of Kiev because Putin wanted to establish good will and get Zelensky more amiable to reach a deal.  Unfortunately that failed.  Frankly, and I know I am just an arm chair historian reading Glantz, Erickson, and Beevor so its not my place, but frankly Putin needs to his the Nazis hard and heavy sooner rather than later. Zelensky, and I hate quoting Nazis, is right.  Donbass is decisive.  The Uke army has got to be eradicated because if go extinct so does NATO's entire Third Reich 2.0 exercise.  If the Russians are forced to retreat or lose ground then the world will be worse than ever for everyon involved.

I doubt the Russian leadership is that naive

They simply have to maintain the illusion of attempting to secure a diplomatic solution

They couldn't have predicted Bucha, but then such things backfire on Kiev don't they

Withdrawing from Kiev made military sense. With the failure to force a treaty, destabilize the regime's elites, or peacefully enter more cities - there was nothing more to do around Kiev.

Right now Russian public figures are playing good cop bad cop
Peskov is the peacemaker. Kadyrov is the hawk. Lavrov says a third thing. And Putin stays silent.

In pratice yes all hopes for negotiations died with Bucha but there weren't any really left anyway.

It's the Donbass, mass surrender of troops there, and then rapidly entering more cities peacefully like Zaporozhie and Dnepropetrovsk on the back of the panic.

billybatts91 wrote:Yes but some are saying that Vucic uses the Russian relationship to help himself politically but then turns around and does pro-EU things and is making Serbia closer with China in many respects than he really wants to make them closer to Russia.

Yup, and some people still say that Assad gassed his own people...

Getting closer with China is a back-door approach to get closer to Russia, without having to be too obvious and setting yourself up for political-economic sabotage like the 4th Reich is doing to Hungary and Poland. Serbia still needs to step carefully until the recent geopolitical shock-waves settle into a clear and discernable change in how the machinery of the EU functions. Politics requires finesse, not table-thumping.

flamming_python wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:The Ukrainians aren't using air defenses by traditional means

There is no IADS to speak of, Russian SEAD missions destroyed their C3

The only computer intel and sat surveillance and recon info they're getting is from NATO and even then Russia hunted down the command posts that were downlink sites for this

Notice NATO e3 plays less of a factor now then it did at the start of Z day

Yes the Buk and Tor carry their own radars, but those are useless for true air defense because of the short range and the warning it give to SPO RWR of Russian aircraft

Most Ukrainian air defense are being used passively , by optical guidance

And we see how little of an effect it has as a serious air defense system

Yes they odd shot they get here and there with su35 ambushed, but it can be assumed reliably that optical guidance is what caused 99% of these ambushes

The sortie rate is still high for VKS missions

So it's not a military limitation or a technical one, but a political one

Papadragon is absolutely right, we should be leveling every single VSU unit that is observed across the board

All one of these Buks, Tors or whatever really needs is a laptop with an internet connection. That gets a message from NATO when an aircraft is on a trajectory to enter its engagement zone, together with its heading, altitude, speed and current position. Then the air defense system aligns its targeting radar to the right spot, switches it on, shoots a missile, and switches it off.

I suspect this is what's happening.

It's not so simple, a laptop cannot act as a command post for a system like Buk or TOR

While the E3 is providing constant surveillance ,

It cannot replace the action of 9s510 command post

A laptop most certainly cannot replace such a command post which provides up to 60 tracks , 16-36 target designations, and passive control over multiple engagement zones

A laptop and the human operators cannot synthesize the Info being provided by E3 so easily with the variables you suggested

There's a lot more which goes into operating these radars , especially analogue soviet Ukrainian systems that are not capable of processing digital signals from laptop

Most of the Ukrainian ambushes are coordinated with NATO but most often they occur with the use of optical systems

Simply put, RWR of su34 and su30/35 would be aware that E3 is searching them, and if target radar turned on, it cannot turn off as it is a semi active system , If the target radar switched off, the missile would lose guidance

So they would have advance notice and have time for countermeasure

With optical guidance, there is no warning, and that is the cause of most ambushes

To fire and forget you need active radar homing on the missiles, and Ukraine does not possess such missiles, only semi active which all sukhoi variants are able to detect

And no E3 cannot provide mid course update to semi active missiles from Buk or Tor

Kiko wrote:They're already preparing their bags:

Kudrin denied information about emigration to Israel 09.04.2022.

The head of the Accounts Chamber Kudrin denied information about emigration to Israel.

The head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Alexei Kudrin , said that he was in Israel, but would soon return to Russia to make a report to the Federation Council.

Earlier, messages appeared on Telegram channels that Kudrin had been seen at a hotel in an Israeli resort.(!)

"There were rumors that I'm not in Moscow . That's right, for the weekend in Tel Aviv . I've been planning for a long time.

And on Tuesday I will speak in the Federation Council, present a report from the Accounts Chamber," Kudrin wrote in his Telegram channel.

https://ria.ru/20220409/kudrin-1782704318.html

What a joke. Israel has been blaming Russia for the 'Bucha massacre' along with the rest of the US client states

But then it's Kudrin. I always get him confused with Chubais, same thing. He can present his report and then he can retire to Tel-Aviv.

Kseniya Sobchak has just gotten Israeli citizenship too. Even though she's been proclaiming on social networks; "look, I'm still in Moscow, on Rublyevka, I'm not going anywhere!". Like Zelensky was with his green screen

I don't really care what anyone's political views are to be honest. You can consider this war as whatever. But if you leave your country like a rat deserting a ship in a time of crisis then what kind of political future can you count on? This isn't the Ukraine which is the epicentre of a war and where any dissenters are arrested or murdered. Russia, even with the new laws against anti-war propaganda, is not a place where liberals or anti-government people are being targeted.