Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

Ask yourself when was the last time Russian Defense reported a Tor, S-300, Buk, Tunguska, being Destroyed?????? It's most likely that majority if not all have been Destroyed or sitting in the west, but Russia made an effort to target S-300 and BUK as far as western areas of Kiev. Last time they reported AD systems Destroyed it was OSA and even then we aren't hearing many reports of them being Destroyed now. And with Zelensky crying for more AD systems it only goes to show they have pretty much ran out of systems other than MANPADS and AA guns. Strela -10 and zsu-23-4 Destruction has also been quiet. i would guess  they have very few systems left and the older stuff they had in storage is either sitting in the Lvov, or they failed to recommission them. Best method of dealing with such systems is drones, loitering around in areas where u believe such systems are, and once they are seen target them. The systems they have left would struggle to find/locate drones as well as target them.

It seems to me Russia are using drones much more now and making sure to take out TB2 and other drones. We haven't heard much Ukrainian aircraft being taken out in the air another indication that air space is pretty much in Russian hands. Ukrainian air force must be almost nonexistent they will be forced into flying L-39 next That's if they haven't been Destroyed.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
It's not so simple, a laptop cannot act as a command post for a system like Buk or TOR

While the E3 is providing constant surveillance ,

It cannot replace the action of 9s510 command post

A laptop most certainly cannot replace such a command post which provides up to 60 tracks , 16-36 target designations, and passive control over multiple engagement zones

A laptop and the human operators cannot synthesize the Info being provided by E3 so easily with the variables you suggested

There's a lot more which goes into operating these radars , especially analogue soviet Ukrainian systems that are not capable of processing digital signals from laptop

Most of the Ukrainian ambushes are coordinated with NATO but most often they occur with the use of optical systems

Simply put, RWR of su34 and su30/35 would be aware that E3 is searching them, and if target radar turned on, it cannot turn off as it is a semi active system , If the target radar switched off, the missile would lose guidance

So they would have advance notice and have time for countermeasure

With optical guidance, there is no warning, and that is the cause of most ambushes

To fire and forget you need active radar homing on the missiles, and Ukraine does not possess such missiles, only semi active which all sukhoi variants are able to detect

And no E3 cannot provide mid course update to semi active missiles from Buk or Tor

A laptop does not need to do any of those things

NATO radars and computers in Poland or Romania can do all those things and calculate all information required; they'll be the ones tracking the aircraft and creating a targeting profile. They'll know the location of all Ukrainian air defense systems and will have contact with them.

The laptop simply needs to be sent a message as to which azimuth, angle and at what time to switch the targeting radar on - that's it. Then the crew follows those instructions, gets a lock and fires. Even if you have to keep the radar on, it's still not a very long window. A few minutes until the missile either hits its target or misses. Then you can scoot away before any anti-radiation missiles hit where you were sitting.

d_taddei2 wrote:Ask yourself when was the last time Russian Defense reported a Tor, S-300, Buk, Tunguska, being Destroyed?????? It's most likely that majority if not all have been Destroyed or sitting in the west, but Russia made an effort to target S-300 and BUK as far as western areas of Kiev. Last time they reported AD systems Destroyed it was OSA and even then we aren't hearing many reports of them being Destroyed now. And with Zelensky crying for more AD systems it only goes to show they have pretty much ran out of systems other than MANPADS and AA guns. Strela -10 and zsu-23-4 Destruction has also been quiet. i would guess  they have very few systems left and the older stuff they had in storage is either sitting in the Lvov, or they failed to recommission them. Best method of dealing with such systems is drones, loitering around in areas where u believe such systems are, and once they are seen target them. The systems they have left would struggle to find/locate drones as well as target them.

It seems to me Russia are using drones much more now and making sure to take out TB2 and other drones. We haven't heard much Ukrainian aircraft being taken out in the air another indication that air space is pretty much in Russian hands. Ukrainian air force must be almost nonexistent they will be forced into flying L-39 next That's if they haven't been Destroyed.

If all Ukrainian air defense was destroyed we'd see Su-34s, Su-30SMs, etc.. swarming all over Ukrainian airspace and taking things out with guided bombs, instead of cruise missiles being relied upon or at the maximum, some longer-range air to ground missiles like the Kh-59.

Instead Russia has only declared air superiority to be achieved in the Donbass so far.

I'm sure Russian multi-role fighters and tactical bombers are active; but even then probably closer to Russian lines, or not straying too far from Belarus.

Finland, Georgia and Azerbaijan both have Buks. I suspect they can be transferred to the Ukraine or have started to be already.
Bulgaria, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Macedonia all have Strela-10s. They'll be happy to offload them in return for newer American equipment.

And of course not all of the Ukraine's are taken out. What's the latest Rus MoD figures? Like 60% of their air defense systems out so far?

mnztr wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

That is part of the political dimension in all of this.  If Putin levels the Limey and Kraut leadership, and I would not shed a tear if he did, then you have a massive escalation snd very likely a nuclear war.   The pressure was eased off of Kiev because Putin wanted to establish good will and get Zelensky more amiable to reach a deal.  Unfortunately that failed.  Frankly, and I know I am just an arm chair historian reading Glantz, Erickson, and Beevor so its not my place, but frankly Putin needs to his the Nazis hard and heavy sooner rather than later. Zelensky, and I hate quoting Nazis, is right.  Donbass is decisive.  The Uke army has got to be eradicated because if go extinct so does NATO's entire Third Reich 2.0 exercise.  If the Russians are forced to retreat or lose ground then the world will be worse than ever for everyon involved.

There is no suggestion that Putin should kill foreign leaders, but  the fact that the British PM feels safe enough to waltz into Kiev to visit his buddy Zelensky, that alone is alarming. Its sounds to me that Russia is trying to create Vietnam II. We will see how hard they hit Donbass, if the Donbass war becomes a protracted affair, the odds start to stack up against Russia.

U do realize zelensky isn't in Kiev they were using green screen in the past, hes most likely still in USA embassy in Poland.

sepheronx wrote:

mnztr wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

That is part of the political dimension in all of this.  If Putin levels the Limey and Kraut leadership, and I would not shed a tear if he did, then you have a massive escalation snd very likely a nuclear war.   The pressure was eased off of Kiev because Putin wanted to establish good will and get Zelensky more amiable to reach a deal.  Unfortunately that failed.  Frankly, and I know I am just an arm chair historian reading Glantz, Erickson, and Beevor so its not my place, but frankly Putin needs to his the Nazis hard and heavy sooner rather than later. Zelensky, and I hate quoting Nazis, is right.  Donbass is decisive.  The Uke army has got to be eradicated because if go extinct so does NATO's entire Third Reich 2.0 exercise.  If the Russians are forced to retreat or lose ground then the world will be worse than ever for everyon involved.

There is no suggestion that Putin should kill foreign leaders, but  the fact that the British PM feels safe enough to waltz into Kiev to visit his buddy Zelensky, that alone is alarming. Its sounds to me that Russia is trying to create Vietnam II. We will see how hard they hit Donbass, if the Donbass war becomes a protracted affair, the odds start to stack up against Russia.

Mariupol is finished.  I think a few are still fighting and thats it.  Already they are moving onto Kharkov and other areas.  Kharkov is second largest city.  Once it is dealt with, the rest of Ukraine east of the Dnieper will be more of a cakewalk (not entirely, but you get the meaning).

There are reports of 200-300 foreign mercs in Azovstal and 1500-2000 Azovites
Pravyj Sektor and territorial defense in another area, about 500 of them
No mention of Ukrainian marines and police. Maybe most of them surrendered or have been neutralized by now. It was mentioned by Ukrainian prisoners that the marines were ordered to take positions out in front of the main force

So we're looking at anywhere from 2200 to 2800 combatants left in Mariupol.

They're well entrenched. 70% of the port is now under control. That leaves part of the port, Azovstal, the Illich metallurgical plant, and a small part of the residential area north of the industrial zone. The industrial zone apparently has underground sections and communication lines; it's bunkered and well-prepared. Might be best to take the surface sections and entomb the rest of the fighters by sealing all the entrances. Maybe some combat robots can be sent into the industrial plants to minimize losses.

rigoletto wrote:Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian statehood

Why the Ukrainian "Carthage" should be destroyed: Russia in Ukraine is not confronted
with the excesses of Bandera, but with modern Ukrainian identity

https://russtrat.ru/reports/10-aprelya-2022-0010-9879

Thanks for posting this, I'll share some choice quotes.

Ukrainian identity

Banderaism is not a radical version of Ukrainianism and not its concentrated embodiment, but only one of its versions, all competition between which comes down to the competition of field commanders and pretenders for the status of leader and obtaining foreign funding. There is no moderate and radical Ukrainianism. There is an underformed Ukrainian and there is a formalized one. The first is not Ukrainianism, but a damaged form of Russianness. The second is pure and real Ukrainianism. 

Russia in Ukraine is faced not with the excesses of Bandera, but with modern Ukrainian identity. The other one simply doesn't exist. Ukrainianism is Bandera. The clash of Russian and Ukrainian (that is, Bandera) identities has already happened, and the Ukrainian one must be broken. It should be replaced by an all-Russian identity. Where a Ukrainian is a Russian sub-ethnos, like a Belarusian. And the Ukrainian dialect is one of the dialects of the Russian sub-ethnos. Like Bavarian and Kölsch in Germany or Cantonese and Putonghua in China.

It is necessary to return the former names: Novorossiya, Malorossiya, Galicia. Keeping the name "Ukraine" is only behind all this temporary confederate entity.

In any case, the current Ukrainian Nazi identity and the Ukrainian statehood that expresses it should no longer exist. Its dismantling is already underway. This will be a guarantee of demilitarization and denazification. There are no other guarantees.

Nothing we don't already know here but at least other people understand that the only real permanent solution to the Ukrainian problem is, as Stalin would put it, "No Ukraine? No Problem."

d_taddei2 wrote:

mnztr wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

mnztr wrote:If Russia cannot even stop the resupply of Ukraine by NATO then my confidence if declining. Today Boris Johnson shows up in Kiev. Is the VKS even patrolling Ukraine airspace? WTF BOJO just flies in and out with impunity. When will Ukraine resume airline ops? Oh I forgot this is not a war its a "Special Military operation". Starting to wonder if that is code for "half assed military operation"

That is part of the political dimension in all of this.  If Putin levels the Limey and Kraut leadership, and I would not shed a tear if he did, then you have a massive escalation snd very likely a nuclear war.   The pressure was eased off of Kiev because Putin wanted to establish good will and get Zelensky more amiable to reach a deal.  Unfortunately that failed.  Frankly, and I know I am just an arm chair historian reading Glantz, Erickson, and Beevor so its not my place, but frankly Putin needs to his the Nazis hard and heavy sooner rather than later. Zelensky, and I hate quoting Nazis, is right.  Donbass is decisive.  The Uke army has got to be eradicated because if go extinct so does NATO's entire Third Reich 2.0 exercise.  If the Russians are forced to retreat or lose ground then the world will be worse than ever for everyon involved.

There is no suggestion that Putin should kill foreign leaders, but  the fact that the British PM feels safe enough to waltz into Kiev to visit his buddy Zelensky, that alone is alarming. Its sounds to me that Russia is trying to create Vietnam II. We will see how hard they hit Donbass, if the Donbass war becomes a protracted affair, the odds start to stack up against Russia.

U do realize zelensky isn't in Kiev they were using green screen  in the past, hes most likely still in USA embassy in Poland.

No it looks like he's returned.

He was using a green screen only until Russia withdrew from the Kiev and Chernigov areas.

lancelot wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:i would guess  they have very few systems left and the older stuff they had in storage is either sitting in the Lvov, or they failed to recommission them. Best method of dealing with such systems is drones, loitering around in areas where u believe such systems are, and once they are seen target them. The systems they have left would struggle to find/locate drones as well as target them.

There is one thing I have not heard yet. I know that Ukraine was upgrading their tanks in Kharkov and Lvov. I heard Russia hit the Kharkov plant but heard nothing about the Lvov plant. That one should be hit too.

That Lvov one was taken out sometime in the first 2-3 weeks, remember hearing about it.

I think Slovakia already offered the Ukraine to repair its tanks. But it's a lot of back and forth across targeted rail junctions.

It'll be easier to send Poland's PT-91s instead. In return for Poland ordering more Leo 2s.

Amerikanski air defense systems to replace the Buk or the Strela-10? Like what? They had to buy Iron Dome. Because they can't make short range air defenses worth shit. Not that Patriot is any good, but at least you can call it an actual effort, compared with their other shorter range systems.

Who cares what they have to buy?
With the exception of Azerbaijan they're all American vassals with no sovereignty and will do as ordered, and will buy what's ordered, out of the confiscated Russian reserves if need be.

Azerbaijan might decide to offload theirs though to curry favour, at least in regards to the Strela-10s which are old anyway. But they wouldn't want to piss off Russia. Well who knows. They'll do what Turkey says probably.

mnztr wrote:
There is no suggestion that Putin should kill foreign leaders, but  the fact that the British PM feels safe enough to waltz into Kiev to visit his buddy Zelensky, that alone is alarming. Its sounds to me that Russia is trying to create Vietnam II. We will see how hard they hit Donbass, if the Donbass war becomes a protracted affair, the odds start to stack up against Russia.

What makes you think BoJo the clown is meeting Elensky in Kiev? Last I heard the Comedian is hiding out  somewhere in Poland.

sepheronx wrote:
Yes, but it is a battle that will take time and doesn't require a large force like the initial battle of Mariupol that required a ton of Russian and DNR forces.  Now most of them are concentrating elsewhere, while the Chechen units, along with DNR units and RNG and possibly Ru Mercs operating to take out the rest of these guys.

There needs to be a smarter strategy to wage city battles

A lot of DNR soldiers have fallen in Mariupol. Some 5000 civilians too

A bigger focus on mini-UCAVs with small arms, unmanned combat vehicles, BMPTs, UAVs paired with precision guided artillery even mortars with the Kitolov shells, Ka-52s with stand-off missiles, guided thermobaric rocket launchers for infantry, and so on.

[quote="d_taddei2"][quote="mnztr"][quote="ucmvulcan"]

mnztr wrote:...

U do realize zelensky isn't in Kiev they were using green screen  in the past, hes most likely still in USA embassy in Poland.

Zelensky went to the false flag site in Kiev yesterday with Von Der Leyen from Germany yesterday for a photo shoot.

Broski wrote:

rigoletto wrote:Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian statehood

Why the Ukrainian "Carthage" should be destroyed: Russia in Ukraine is not confronted
with the excesses of Bandera, but with modern Ukrainian identity

https://russtrat.ru/reports/10-aprelya-2022-0010-9879

Thanks for posting this, I'll share some choice quotes.

Ukrainian identity

Banderaism is not a radical version of Ukrainianism and not its concentrated embodiment, but only one of its versions, all competition between which comes down to the competition of field commanders and pretenders for the status of leader and obtaining foreign funding. There is no moderate and radical Ukrainianism. There is an underformed Ukrainian and there is a formalized one. The first is not Ukrainianism, but a damaged form of Russianness. The second is pure and real Ukrainianism. 

Russia in Ukraine is faced not with the excesses of Bandera, but with modern Ukrainian identity. The other one simply doesn't exist. Ukrainianism is Bandera. The clash of Russian and Ukrainian (that is, Bandera) identities has already happened, and the Ukrainian one must be broken. It should be replaced by an all-Russian identity. Where a Ukrainian is a Russian sub-ethnos, like a Belarusian. And the Ukrainian dialect is one of the dialects of the Russian sub-ethnos. Like Bavarian and Kölsch in Germany or Cantonese and Putonghua in China.

It is necessary to return the former names: Novorossiya, Malorossiya, Galicia. Keeping the name "Ukraine" is only behind all this temporary confederate entity.

In any case, the current Ukrainian Nazi identity and the Ukrainian statehood that expresses it should no longer exist. Its dismantling is already underway. This will be a guarantee of demilitarization and denazification. There are no other guarantees.

Nothing we don't already know here but at least other people understand that the only real permanent solution to the Ukrainian problem is, as Stalin would put it, "No Ukraine? No Problem."

Novorussia Oblasts: Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie, Herson, Nikolaev and finally the queen - Odessa.

flamming_python wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:Ask yourself when was the last time Russian Defense reported a Tor, S-300, Buk, Tunguska, being Destroyed?????? It's most likely that majority if not all have been Destroyed or sitting in the west, but Russia made an effort to target S-300 and BUK as far as western areas of Kiev. Last time they reported AD systems Destroyed it was OSA and even then we aren't hearing many reports of them being Destroyed now. And with Zelensky crying for more AD systems it only goes to show they have pretty much ran out of systems other than MANPADS and AA guns. Strela -10 and zsu-23-4 Destruction has also been quiet. i would guess  they have very few systems left and the older stuff they had in storage is either sitting in the Lvov, or they failed to recommission them. Best method of dealing with such systems is drones, loitering around in areas where u believe such systems are, and once they are seen target them. The systems they have left would struggle to find/locate drones as well as target them.

It seems to me Russia are using drones much more now and making sure to take out TB2 and other drones. We haven't heard much Ukrainian aircraft being taken out in the air another indication that air space is pretty much in Russian hands. Ukrainian air force must be almost nonexistent they will be forced into flying L-39 next That's if they haven't been Destroyed.

If all Ukrainian air defense was destroyed we'd see Su-34s, Su-30SMs, etc.. swarming all over Ukrainian airspace and taking things out with guided bombs, instead of cruise missiles being relied upon or at the maximum, some longer-range air to ground missiles like the Kh-59.

Instead Russia has only declared air superiority to be achieved in the Donbass so far.

I'm sure Russian multi-role fighters and tactical bombers are active; but even then probably closer to Russian lines, or not straying too far from Belarus.

Finland, Georgia and Azerbaijan both have Buks. I suspect they can be transferred to the Ukraine or have started to be already.
Bulgaria, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Macedonia all have Strela-10s. They'll be happy to offload them in return for newer American equipment.

And of course not all of the Ukraine's are taken out. What's the latest Rus MoD figures? Like 60% of their air defense systems out so far?

read my post again never said ALL Ukrainian systems were Destroyed but majority. Russia doesn't have to be flying all over Ukraine its main focus is the Donbass for now. And we have seen evidence of Russian drones taking out S-300 and BUK as far west as Kiev. Cruise missiles can be harder to detect than aircraft and USA will be watching Russian air fields like a hawk, once your loading up an aircraft then it flying off and flying over Ukrainian air space using dumb bombs which u have to be directly over the target USA will have worked out its target and relayed info to Ukraine. Using cruise missiles even from Aircraft within Russian territory they won't know the intended target as it can change course, hence Russia is using them makes it more difficult for uncle Sam. The same goes for Iskander and the speed of iskander gives little time.

Also let's not forget that Russia had also been targeting warehouse's containing AA missiles one report stated they targeted a warehouse containing Buk and S-300 missiles. The west can't produce these and without missiles the systems are useless. As for the west supplying other Soviet systems Strela 10 you would probably be looking at around 50 systems,  Osa Ur looking at around 50-100 systems in Europe and Bulgaria might not send theirs, also those which are retired what condition are they in especially the missiles? And remember that these are short range systems Strela 10 @ 5km range and Osa around 15-20km Ukraine is a massive country to cover and these systems would be operating on optical guidance.
Sa-2, and Sa-5 systems majority retired for long time these types of missiles are most likely no longer safe to fire or been disposed of these are also high altitude missiles and need radars, Russia has been flying low so systems wouldn't be much use.  Sa-3 Poland still operates some but yet again any in storage what condition is the missile, this also needs radars and sa-2, sa-5, sa-3 are all static systems and be easy to take out. All other Soviet systems that were in service will be too far gone to recommission.
As for Sa-6 although this is a SP systems it needs to be used with a radar which then effectively makes it a very static systems. Later versions did have optical guidance and these would be most likely the better version of the system to have.

But also another point these vehicles take a lot of fuel, or need transporting by heavy trucks and fuel is something Ukraine is in short supply of. And let's not forget Russian drones flying around these would become easy targets.

Well, now we have Papadragon here. That Man knows everything about "mistakes" about Russian military plans and Russian leadership. It is very interesting that prophet Papadragon even knows that "Russia will stop to exist as a country" if Russia doesn't do what HE has written that should be done in Ukraine. We don't need Kremlin boss anymore, Shoigu or Gerasimov - Papadragon will show to us the future of Russia.

lancelot wrote:Flood the underground sections. Plenty of seawater close by. And a river. Hercules did it to clean the Augean stables too.

Good idea although I wouldn't drown them. I would seal them in, and fill the basements half full so they wouldn't be able to sleep, be very cold, and half of their bodies submerged in water, they would eventually die of hypothermia or suffer similar effects of trench foot but on half of their body they would eventually die from infection. A nice fitting punishment for their neo Nazi crimes.

Podlodka77 wrote:Well, now we have Papadragon here. That Man knows everything about "mistakes" made in military actions and mistakes from Russian leadership. It is very interesting that prophet Papadragon even knows that "Russia will stop to exist as a country" if Russia doesn't do what HE has written that should be done in Ukraine. We don't need Kremlin boss anymore, Shoigu or Gerasimov - Papadragon will show to us the future of Russia.

I do have to give respect to him on being right at least partially about the operation practically as soon as it began.

But PD is a prophet in the same vein as Arestovich in the Ukraine, who predicted back in 2019 when Russia would invade and pretty much exactly how. Only to then use that cred to talk a bunch of bullshit

Just because I agree with a lot of the analysis, doesn't mean I agree with the proposed solution.

Russia got its initial political-military strategy wrong. But the current one looks like it could well work, so long as Kiev doesn't convince all its troops in the Donbass to commit to mass-sepuko by charging into artillery fire just to prevent themselves being captured.

Podlodka77 wrote:
Novorussia Oblasts: Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie, Herson, Nikolaev and finally the queen - Odessa.

The Queen is Kharkov really

But regardless Russia doesn't need Novorussia any more than it needs the Donbass

Russia needs the Ukraine secured against any Western influence, right-wing extremism or weapon shipments. It needs the whole territory bolted down tight together with all its population, and to create a new state there from scratch.
And at the very minimum to the border of western Ukraine. Ideally, including all Ukrainian territory

GunshipDemocracy wrote:https://t.me/rian_ru/157705

There was a strike on concentration of Ukrainian military equipment at the Novograd-Volynsky railway station in the Zhytomyr region.

Serberus wrote:
Either way, its a difficult situation, and in reality we can’t do anything to help Russia both militarily or politically, just like Russia was in no position to help us during the 90’s and the nato aggression in 1999 and we understood it. All we can do as a people is provide moral support, its not much but a lot more than most are doing.
Anyway i will end this here, not really that pertinent to the thread.

IMHO youre right wrt Serbia. As for being in EU, Hungary is still not joining nazi propaganda. And EU is alternativeness to Serbia in current geopolitical situation. .

BTW Are you reincarnation of Papa?

After now seeing some of his comments, my posts don’t resemble his in the slightest so not sure why you came to that conclusion.