Russian special military operation in Ukraine #13

https://thesaker.is/does-paul-craig-roberts-like-genocide/
Orlov makes some great points.

As for UA casualties, I mean, it's ridiculous. I've been unfortunate enough to see literal piles of rotting corpses, day after day.

I have absolutely no doubt in RU MoDs numbers on recorded UA casualties, ie ~25,000 "irretreviable".

The true scale of this will probably become known only after Kiev admits defeat and their people aren't risking lifetime imprisonment or execution for telling it how it is.

JohninMK wrote:Just the US contribution, a full list.

Goodness only knows how they plan to move it east once it crosses the border.

The question is if it can move east of Dnepr at all.

I get the feeling that it's bound to end up as a Galician "Fortress Ukraine" kind of thing, west of Dnepr. The Banderist-nationalist core of the place.

JohninMK wrote:Flew into electric cable

https://twitter.com/i/status/1517521321390919680

Crazy it took this long for additional info to show up.

And no, this was on February 24th, right? It was, I believe the crash that kickstarted the rumors of a VDV Il-76 being shot down, rumors that persisted for a good while.

Then, it was obvious that it was a UA An-26. But the Il-76 stuff still kept on going.

I think this, given the area, was a FF incident. Looks like it too. And it's been hushed up for two months.

Wonder how much else UA has managed to hush up, seriously.

[quote="Hole"][quote="PapaDragon"]

billybatts91 wrote:So this is basically what the official plan is now in terms of Russian goals for Ukraine, taking over the blue parts (except Crimea, which is already a part of Russia).

I think beyond obvious stuff, its difficult to predict what will happen and when.

Many of us were yelling for Russian action in 2014... and for many years beforehand.
Most of us thought such caution would at most mean only a chunk of the Donbass might be liberated by force.

But now we see a very large operation across the former Banderastan.

Obviously the South and South East are most pro Russian and would integrate with the Ru Fedn fairly easily.
Thats prob 18m people, excluding Crimea.

Kiev itself should be considered a Russian jewel, never to be given away again. Altho it has a substantial minority of vermin infestation from the West... which wld need to be dealt with. Malorussia or the Central Ukraine is prob 8m or 9m so. With a substantial number of brainwashed idiots, and idiots who've always been so. However, the S East would counter balance that in electoral terms potentially.


With Bandera-stan proper ie the West, a further 8 or 9m or so.

My guess is that the S West can be integrated easily. Central will be harder and will need a firm hand.
But the West is impossible, and prob demilitarisation/de Nazification would be the best option short term.
Infact chunks of Central are also problematic.

So it could either be 3 states. Or part to Russia and 2 other states. It could be federalised into 20 ish oblasts under a central govt.

But the question is whether the diseased parts should be connected with the healthy parts under one federal govt. Healthy parts might cure diseased parts. Or diseased parts might continue... as happened post 1991.

Shortish term I'd see a hard military border in the West to prevent escape of Nazis or import of arms. ANother military border between Bandera-stan and Central. And probably a military border between Central and the healthiest part ie Novorossiya.

The West could be like US controlled Japan. Basically left to trade but fully demilitarised and primarily a hard buffer zone vs military attacks on Russia. Over time it might become less moronic and future generations might work better with RUssians.

Central would need lots and lots of soft power after the initial hard power.

I think it could take 10, 20 even 30 years to fully resolve "Greater Russia" and the former USSR or future Eurasian Union.
There are issues with the Baltics, Kazakstan, Georgia and all the Muslim republics that either need watching, guiding or solving.

Does Paul Craig Roberts like Genocide?
19766 Views April 22, 2022 193 Comments

By Dmitry Orlov for the Saker Blog

Or maybe he, like Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz, grandson of Fritz von Scholz, SS lieutenant-general who supervised the slaughter of Jews in Poland and the Ukraine, thinks that genocide is a joke? Let’s explore…

A reader has asked me to comment on a recent post by Roberts titled “The Kremlin Has Missed the Opportunity to End the Provocations of Russia that Are Bringing the World to Nuclear War.” And so I took a look at it. At first, it made me angry, but only for a moment, because there is no possibility of actual harm from his scribbling: his unsolicited advice to “the Kremlin” will pass unnoticed and therefore unheeded. Rather, it made me sad. I used to think highly of Roberts, but now he is just another confused old man who, like our friend Brendan, has missed a perfectly good opportunity to hang it up and fade away. Mind you, I am trying to be kind and polite here.

Roberts saw it fit to write that “If Russia had hit Ukraine with a devastating conventional all-inclusive attack, the war would have ended before it started,” and, after some additional musings, that “the failure of Russia to impress the West with an overwhelming exercise of military force in Ukraine means another step has been taken toward nuclear armageddon.” And then he rambles along to “The Kremlin’s inability to be proactive and unwillingness to clear Washington’s fifth column out of Russia’s ruling circles will be the hallmarks of Russian defeat.”

Really? No, not really.

I should make no assumptions on what you or Roberts know or don’t know about the Ukraine or “the Kremlin,” so I will simply state the obvious.

There is no easily discernible difference between Russians and Ukrainians: same culture, language, religion and history. As a state, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is a failed state; as a territory, it is part of Russia. Therefore, an all-out attack on the Ukraine would be essentially an attack on Russia itself. Apparently, Roberts feels that Russians should kill millions of other Russians in order to impress the West. That’s really cute, you know, in a genocidally maniacal sort of way, but completely impossible.

The complexity of the Russian Special Operation in the Ukraine had to do with disentangling the civilian population (which needed to be evacuated) and the regular Ukrainian military (which needed to be given a chance to surrender peacefully) from the Nazi battalions (which need to either be killed in battle or captured, convicted by a tribunal and shot). That is not something that can be done quickly.

There are other, less important but still very significant reasons to take it slow:

1. There is a rather large group of Ukrainians who wanted the Ukraine to be part of Europe, not part of Russia. These are now departing Ukrainian territory, mostly to Poland, and that, from the Russian point of view, is a wonderful thing because the Ukraine isn’t Europe, it is Russia, and those who believe it is Europe or want it to be Europe should be given a chance to go to the Europe of their dreams and stay there forever, helping Europe’s general dire demographic predicament and specific shortage of white people. For this reason, it has been important to keep the Ukraine’s western border open to exiting migrants, even though this allows weapons and mercenaries to filter in (for the Russians to blow up).

2. The Europeans’ willingness to absorb millions upon millions of Ukrainian migrants, whereas they balked at accepting anywhere near similar numbers of migrants from the Middle East or North Africa, exemplifies their essential racism. As it is, two-thirds of the world is either neutral or supports Russia in its effort to reclaim the Ukraine; as the message that the EU and NATO are essentially white supremacist organizations sinks in around the world, more and more countries will shift from neutral to supportive without Russia having to lift a finger to convince them. From this point of view, it is really helpful that a lot of the Ukrainians like to draw swastikas on monuments and shout Nazi slogans such as “Slava Ukraini” (of World War II Nazi collaborator vintage) and “Ukraina ponad use” (the Ukrainian version of “Ukraine über alles.”

3. Russia has a great and prosperous future as a wealthy, well-educated, civilized, vast and resource-rich country, but this future has nothing to do with Europe or the rest of the West, which are going to collapse. The fact that Russia has been rather tightly integrated with the West ever since Peter the Great moved the capital to St. Petersburg has complicated its transition away from the West and its turn eastward. Western sanctions, rampant Russophobia and the application of cancel culture to Russian culture has made this transition inevitable in the eyes of most Russians, but the process takes time. It would not be helpful if tensions with the West decreased prematurely or if anti-Russian sanctions were removed before they are made completely irrelevant. Also, the West’s unwillingness to buy Russian energy, metals, fertilizer and other essentials speeds up its collapse timeline and that, for Russia, is also a positive.

4. Immediately after Russia commenced its Special Operation in the Ukraine, much of Russia’s remaining fifth-columnists departed for other lands. They already had no impact on Russian politics, but they still exerted some amount of influence in culture and education, and their departure has been most welcome. Given the absolutely overwhelming public support for the Special Operation in Russia, those liberals who have spoken out against it have thereby excused themselves from Russian public life, making room for new talent and new blood. This is also a process that needs to run its course and should not be rushed.

5. The Special Operation has allowed Russia to demonstrate the overwhelming superiority of its armed forces vis-à-vis NATO. All of the weapons that the West has managed to infiltrate into the Ukraine are either being destroyed by rocket attacks or are accumulating in stockpiles after being abandoned by retreating or surrendering Ukrainian troops. None of the obsolete Stingers, Javelins or other military junk has made much of a difference at all. There is very little of any significance that the West can do to hurt Russia’s careful and measured progress in the Ukraine. Once more, time is on Russia’s side: it will take another few months for it to register in the West that all those billions spent on aid to the Ukraine have gone into a black hole with nothing to show for it.

6. Finally, there is what Russia has to do beyond taking care of the situation in the (former) Ukraine, and that is to dismantle NATO. This will require some sort of small demonstration project: take over some small, insignificant NATO member and watch all the other NATO members run away instead of going to war against Russia over it. The myth of NATO as a defensive (as opposed to an offensive) organization would be dispelled and NATO would be no more. The demonstration country could be Lithuania, for instance: Peter the Great purchased the Baltics from Sweden for 1000 pieces of silver at the Treaty of Nystad on September 10, 1721, so it’s Russian territory. Unlike the Ukraine, which is huge, Lithuania is tiny and the entire campaign would be over in about a week. But if Finland or Sweden would like to volunteer for the role of exemplary victim by attempting to join NATO, that would be fine too. Finland’s security is guaranteed by its commitment to neutrality, based on which Russia (USSR at the time) removed its military base from Finnish soil. If Finland moves to renege on that treaty, it would forfeit its security.

Roberts seems to believe that Russia’s refusal to destroy the Ukraine with overwhelming force makes nuclear war more likely because it “gives Washington control of the explanation.” Russia’s superior position with regard to any potential nuclear provocation is subject for another article, but I assure you that it has absolutely nothing to do with “Washington’s control of the explanation” because how the hell would Washington explain its desire to commit national suicide over the Ukraine? The thesis that “Russia’s failure to quickly destroy the Ukraine raises the likelihood of nuclear war” is… I am grasping for a word here… stupid.

https://thesaker.is/does-paul-craig-roberts-like-genocide/

Don't agree on the overall dismissing of PCR, but I think he often underestimates Russia and seems to think it is just the US logic that needs to be applied everywhere, without understanding that the Russian one is far deeper and more sophisticated. The comments by Orlov are relevant to understand the operation in Ukraine, which reaches far beyond the liberation of Donbass and will have serious ramifications in the years to come and constitute an epochal moment in the history of Russia.

If all, the insistence of the West in prolonging the conflict and fighting to the last Ukrainian is just enabling Russia to thoroughly eliminate the agents of Western influence, destroy the Kiev junta and assimilate the whole territory as a part of the Russian world again. The West just seems able of knee-jerk reactions that are trivial to predict and play very nicely in the long run into Russia's hands, which seems to operate in a different time scale to which the globalist elites remain completely oblivious.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:As for UA casualties, I mean, it's ridiculous. I've been unfortunate enough to see literal piles of rotting corpses, day after day.
I have absolutely no doubt in RU MoDs numbers on recorded UA casualties, ie ~25,000 "irretreviable".
The true scale of this will probably become known only after Kiev admits defeat and their people aren't risking lifetime imprisonment or execution for telling it how it is.

They won't even find the remains, as tons of them are buried beneath the strongpoints that were annihilated. Half of MIAs can be easily added to the KIAs, to begin with. Deserters can consider themself lucky.
There are tons of corpses at each Ukr position. Russian tactic is based on overwhelming firepower, at any sign of resistance, they just call the cavalry.
The only reason why that is not falling apart is total censorship and nazi barrier troops.
Not sure if you have spotted that, but they have resurrected the structure of political officers. One of the POWs questioned by Sladkov clearly claimed his position in ranks, gaining a lot of attention, because it is not a usual staff member in any modern army. They asked him twice, to avoid translation errors if he is some kind of education/support/cultural officer, and he twice denied that no, he is zempolit. A real, true zempolit, only the ideology differs.
I guess as only Russian media will be delivered to the Ukrainian population I'm mass, the real condition and situation on the frontline will be revealed. People have families and friends there, that will spread no matter the censorship. A whisper is worse than a truth ...

ALAMO wrote:There is no point in the occupation of western Ukraine from the Russian perspective. Costly, with no long-term gains for real.
The whole western part of Ukr is an agricultural land mostly, without any serious industry. It will be home to maybe 15 mln population, if we consider the migration, making it an equivalent of Romania.
So in reality, any serious danger of becoming anti Russia will be gone.
Someone who is yapping about "West Germany" obviously never has been there
I have. In both WG and West Berlin.
It was an industrial hub, a vibrant and massive economy leaving anyone with a dropped jar.
It was driven by billions looted by the Nazis, that was pumped back into it in the 60s already, a population boom making it about 60 mln nation, on a constant rise well into 80s.
There is not a single point that matches the Ukro, neither now, nor when Russkies will finish with them.
Landlocking them and stripping off the whole Russian speaking regions will be an absolute victory, for a humble price.
It will be a smaller, weaker, poorer Romania, but with a huge ego.

South Korea was also the rice bowl of Korea. Today it is a major industrial nation.
I think it will be a major mistake to let the center of the Ukraine including Kiev to go to NATO.
Lviv and the area around it is a minor detail.
The proper way to finish a NATO funded insurgency would be to let the local government in the new regions do most of the heavy lifting. And unlike in the 1950s I think this time the insurgency would possibly be worse. Since this time Russia does not control the Warsaw Pact area like the Soviets did in those days. They would likely have to turn the Russian sector of Ukraine into a heavily policed area. Of course it might be the Russian government does not want to swallow Ukraine whole in one go. But I think at bare minimum Odessa and Kharkov should be captured.
Odessa for the land bridge to Transnistria. And Kharkov because the Russian held Ukraine region needs a political center that counters Kiev.
Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia would be viable areas to capture as well if possible. But it might be too complicated with these troop numbers.
Entering any major city like Kharkov will be a hard slough.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Urluber wrote:So now there is fire also in Korolyov. After Tver and Kineshma.
That's in Moscow area and known for example hosting the mission control center of Roskosmos.

Don't want to feed the rumor mill but it's hard to believe these recent fires are pure accidents.
I doubt they are Kievan sabotage either. Kievan nazis don't have capacity to carry out this many operations. I have zero evidence but if I had to say it's most likely the American nazis. Cyber attacks overheating some machinery or similar.

If FSB finds evidence, some US research nuclear reactor should experience sudden malfunction of all safety systems.

Look, the only possibly suspicious one is Tver. But even that one is most likely to have been faulty wiring in an old building with wooden beams, plus lack of proper fire suppression. A recurring thing.

Kineshma fire was a warehouse acetone spill that caught fire. Workers on site said as much, and the chemical plant wasn't affected.

Korolyov was on Cosmonaut Strekalov street, in a gruffy garage behind the street shops, not anywhere near say the MCC or anything of the sort.


Caused by welding sparks, workers were doing some reconstruction.

Russia has fires like these every single day, somewhere in the country. It' a huge place with 150,000,000 people and 15 cities with over 1 million residents each, which in pure statistical likelihood would produce multiple fires a day. Then on top of this it's compounded by the fact that fire safety standards often aren't quite up to scratch.

It's just that now you have UA trolls amplifying every freaking dog house that catches fire, and NATO trolls latching onto and spreading everything as if it's significant.

I will add, just anecdotally, that the village I live in (~12,000) has the local fire brigade going lightbars blazing, sirens howling at least five times a week, and the village and the local municipality has at least 2-3 big-ish fires a year (by big-ish I mean it makes the news and locals are told to stay away etc).

Russia has *thousands* of towns this size, and then some. So even if Russia was through-and-through Western European, like my town, it'd have such fires all the time (as in Korolyov, some garage or warehouse).

A local in Mariupol asked for a flag.

Ramsey Kadyrov for president 2026

Just imagine planet shitting blood with him in possession of Russia's nuclear football

He wouldn't even need to do much work, everything important is already on autopilot

lancelot wrote:
South Korea was also the rice bowl of Korea. Today it is a major industrial nation.
I think it will be a major mistake to let the center of the Ukraine including Kiev to go to NATO.
Lviv and the area around it is a minor detail.

Ukro will never be an equivalent of South Korea because they lack ... everything.
I know it might be hard to judge when you are living on the opposite side of a planet because you are trying to make a reasonable calculation, based on sense and logic.
That won't work for Ukraine.
After 1991, Ukraine was the second biggest territorial country in Europe, habituated by 52+ mln population. Armed to the teeth, with MIC complex capable of building carriers, space rockets, and airplanes. Its population was extremely well educated, and the country itself was fully self-sufficient with both food and energy. The Soviet Union left them with nuclear power plants, a big oil extraction&processing industry, a huge chemical complex, metallurgy ...
Dear Lord, they were among the best-educated, industrialized, and self-sufficient countries in the whole fukin' world!!
It took them 23 years to bring that all to the rubbles. Everything you could ever imagine how to fuk the things up - they were even better in that!
What they have created, was an functional polipol, with different clans running in opposite directions (well, the clan issue might be comparable to Korean chaebols indeed ), with one goal only: to steal as much as they can.
Even before 24/02, that was a country close to 30 mln already. With dying industry, shattered agriculture, a whole land asset being bought out by the non-Ukrainian capital. Corrupted to the bottom, where the highest positions in law&order structures were announced to them by the phone call from the US embassy. And the orders who are under krysha and can't be investigated either.
I am really sorry to see that all, because - anyway - those are my nephews. They just didn't have enough luck to break the chains for real.

flamming_python wrote:
It's horrific. The number is a lot larger than 25k.
From our side it's downplayed too of course, last time the MoD published a number was a month ago, and even then it didn't include MIA, and was only for the MoD, not Rosgvardia or other organs.

It is bro, it really is.
No sane person can feel any pleasure knowing that.
It is a civil war, a brother against the brother.
Half of the Ukro forces consist of Russkies, not Hohols.
I am really afraid, that the Kievan regime will use them as wood for a fireplace. No matter how much the Russian side will try to spare them - they will die in hundreds.
There is only one way to stop it - kill the beast. Tear it apart.

TASS; Military operation in Ukraine
23 Apr, 18:42 (Updated 18:43)

The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the logistics terminal near Odessa, where foreign weapons were stored

MOSCOW, 23 April. /TASS/. The Russian Armed Forces with high-precision missiles disabled a logistics terminal at a military airfield near Odessa, where a batch of foreign weapons was stored. This was announced on Saturday by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov.

"This afternoon, high-precision long-range air-launched missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces disabled a logistics terminal at a military airfield near Odessa, where a large batch of foreign weapons received from the United States and European countries was stored," Konashenkov said.

He added that the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 79 military facilities of Ukraine, including 52 areas of concentration of manpower and Ukrainian military equipment. Three Buk-M1 systems and one Tor anti-aircraft missile system were also destroyed.

According to Konashenkov, high-precision airborne missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 22 Ukrainian military facilities during the day, killing up to 200 nationalists.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14456795

7000+ Javelin anti-tank systems have been sent to Ukraine to date. Ukraine uses 1 weeks of worth of javelins in one day.

Only 269 Soviet tanks have been visually confirmed destroyed.

There’s panic among the US leadership as reported by American military analysts about running low on the Javelins and about their ineffectiveness against Russian tanks. 1/3rd of the total US stockpile has been depleted on old Soviet tanks, that is according to the Pentagon.

The 269 visually confirmed losses is not a concrete number either as many have been double photographed and a few misidentified. But the number lies somewhere in the area.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/2328