Ispan wrote:Today's report and a compilation of news sources and analysis
https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/04/28/noticias-de-la-guerra-28-04-2022-informes-noticias-y-analisis/
Thank you. Top maps in article missing.
YESTERDAY 27 April - summary Readovka
Perhaps the most important news today is Putin, who said that the nuclear mace is ready and will definitely strike, and not later, but immediately, if "someone wants to intervene in the situation in Ukraine from the outside and will create a threat of a strategic nature - the attacks will be ultra-fast." All the necessary decisions have already been made for this.
More and more people are wondering why the offensive is moving so slowly that it seems that the front stops. The question arises: are we grinding the enemy or are we grinding ourselves slowly? Comrades on the battlefield are sure that we are grinding. The tactics are as follows: we advance carefully, if the reconnaissance encounters serious resistance, the troops stop and constant rocket and artillery attacks are inflicted on the enemy's defensive lines. Until it is removed or destroyed. The infantry cleans up what is left after the artillery. This is confirmed by the heavy losses of the Ukrainian army. This can be seen even in the photo of the bodies of the soldiers of the Ukroreich, of which there have been enough of them lately. According to the enemy, Russia is generally increasing the pace of its offensive in Ukraine in all directions, this was stated today by the spokesman of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Motuzyanyk.
On the fronts. West of Izyum, Russian troops occupied Zavodye, reaching the village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha. South of Izyum, there is an advance towards Barvenkovo, the battles continue in the direction near the village of Kurulka - the control of this area will cut off the supply route along the railway to the entire Kramatorsk – Severodonetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It must be assumed that the Ukrainians sent their last reserves here. Southeast of Izyum, we reached Krasny Liman from the northeast side, occupied Maslyakovka. There are struggles to establish control over the Liman-Svyatogorsk highway. They write that they occupied Yampol, there is fighting in the village. In Lugansk, progress is less noticeable. Allied troops have already occupied most of Popasna. To the north, they are storming Orekhovo, tank battles are reported in the village.
From the fronts they report that enemy artillery firehas also become more active. Apparently, they sent ammunition to the front. Shelling against the center of Izyum continued. At night, 80 Grad rockets were fired from the Avdeyevka area along Yasinovataya. The anti-aircraft defense did not stop firing in Donetsk. In addition, there were again arrivals in the Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
At the end of the day in Kherson there was an attempt to bomb the TV tower in the center with missiles "Tochka-U". The air defense shot them down right above, the TV center continues to work.
We also do not lag behind the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we give them a light. Once again, yesterday's bridge in the Odessa region was "calibrated" (bombarded with Kalibr cruise missiles) for safety. Also missiles in Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkov, Poltava. Artillery shelling was carried out along the entire front line, in the Gulay Poley area on the contact line in the Krivoy Rog region.
A tense situation has remained in Pridnestrovie for several days. Today there were new attempts at provocations, shooting, Ukrainian drones were shot down. Now the local security forces are keeping the situation under control. "In connection with the introduction of the "red" level of terrorist danger, all objects of national importance have been taken under protection," the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic reported.
From the interesting: in recent days, more and more videos with "fighting Tuvans" are appearing. Many nationalities living in our vast Motherland are famous for their military qualities, which were also manifested in the Great Patriotic War. Some of them are compatriots of our Minister of Defense, the Tuvans. Now, in addition to Russian and Chechen fighters, we see Tuvan soldiers in action.
TODAY 28 April - Strelkov's report (with respect to previous days)
Although I do not agree with most of your opinions, I share it as a counterpoint so as not to fall into complacency. It should be borne in mind that Strelkov thinks himself a Napoleon and is obsessed with the idea that it is necessary to make a complete mobilization and a total war as in 1941-1945. Everything seems wrong and insufficient to him.
About the situation on the Donetsk front (currently I have no information about other fronts):
Area south of Izyum:
Fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to reports, the fierce battles take place on the right flank, in the area of the village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as "at the forefront" of the offensive, in the center of the head of the bridge, the area (possibly in the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka. After taking the specified locality. our troops will directly approach the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its cutting (which will not be easy, since the settlements on this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).
It should be noted that the battles are of a continuous "fluid" nature. The enemy has enough troops to, despite the lengthening of the front line in this area, not allow Russian troops to make deep advances anywhere.
At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw its forces from the remaining bridgehead on the left bank of the Seversky Donets, from the Liman – Yampol area and the Severodonetsk salient, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasnaya (where fierce fighting continued).
It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group, near Barvenkovo and Slavyansk.
The Russian and DPR Armed Forces could not prevent this and surround the enemy units.
In general, the enemy defends himself competently, persistently, controls the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the Ukrainian ranks. It is quite clear that the enemy command is betting on BUYING TIME AND INFLICTING MAXIMUM LOSSES on the SHOCK UNITS of the Russian army (and allies), since it is slowly ceding territory.
Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is a huge Slayvansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, prepared in advance for a long defense. The Ukrainian army will definitely not surrender it, but will resist to the last extreme, defending it, if necessary, as a "besieged fortress". (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is very important: they should not be liberated or interned in any case, otherwise the Slavyansk – Kramatorsk garrison will defend itself just as long and stubbornly, or longer and more fiercely). However, this "fortress" will still have to be encircled, which is very difficult to do with the limited forces available and with such a slow advance, in which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense units in advance.
In the south, in the area of Gulay-Pole and Orekhov, the situation has not changed significantly. "The southern part of the pincers" stalled.
In the central zone, near Donetsk, the situation in general has not changed. In most areas, there is a lull, fighting is taking place only in the area north of Avdyevka, where the Donetsk militia has minor tactical successes.
The general conclusion, unfortunately, is gloomy: the offensive of the Russian group to envelop and encircle the Donetsk group of the Ukrainian army, which did not count on surprise, met fierce resistance and almost certainly will not lead to a complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy.(unless 2-3 additional tank corps suddenly "fall from the sky" in order to sharply break through the front and move deep into the rear of the enemy forces). There is definitely not going to be an envelopment like in Cannae.
At best, the enemy will be "squeezed out" slowly and with heavy losses (mutual, of course) from the Donbass for many weeks and even, it is possible, for several months. This will allow you to create, train and mass introduce strategic reserves in any selected area without much haste for the summer. And also - to crush Transnistria, to gather sufficient forces for this and not to risk defeat near Donetsk during the operation.
Casualty reports for 27 April
Statement of the Russian army
https://antimaydan.info/2022/04/brifing_minoborony_rossii_27_04_2022_g.html
Ukrainian losses, 300 killed yesterday
https://topwar.ru/195599-minoborony-rf-nazvalo-cifry-poter-vsu-i-nacbatov-za-sutki.html
The interdiction of the railways
About railways, very good article about the attacks on the railway system of Ukraine, via Cassad
https://vgudok.com/lenta/operaciya-deindustrializaciya-ukrainskie-zheleznye-dorogi-ne-smogut-perevozit-oruzhie-zerno-i
Report about Maryinka
https://topwar.ru/195171-reportazh-iz-vzjatyh-nm-dnr-ukrainskih-okopov-v-marinke.html
Seeing that there are still houses standing after eight years of war and that there is not so much saturation of projectile funnels, it seems to me that these strong points of the front are not any Stalingrad, if not minor affairs fights of a few companies, I do not believe that the Ukros can put entire brigades in a village that had 20,000 inhabitants,
Of course, I could be underestimating the destruction and artillery bombardments because, due to my interest in the Great War, I am used to apocalyptic bombings that leave a lunar landscape being the norm. The artillery bombardments of 1916-1918 were rarely equaled and never surpassed in the Second World War. It is also possible that Maryinka was not seriously bombed until this year's operations, especially its western part, being occupied by the Ukrainians all this time.
Avdeyevka being an industrial city, I do imagine that it will be much harder to crack, due to the number of air attacks that the "Rooks" have made (Sukhoi 25)
I get the impression that the offensive capacity of most of the militias is very poor, and that at points like this it is really not worth taking a lot of ruins by storm, so everything is left in firefights from one trench to another and shelling until the enemy gets tired and withdraws from a position because it is too exposed and maintaining it costs him a continuous drip of casualties. And since the Ukros have numerical superiority, they send reinforcements as many times as necessary, although I can't imagine what they gain by keeping this town, no matter how much trench and bunker they have invested in.
Strange war!
A few more words about the capabilities of the army of the Donbass or Lugansk republics, or Novorussians for short. It must be differentiated that in reality there were always two armies, the territorial militia, poorly armed and trained, infantry defended the static front, and a maneuvering mass, the Korpus, an army corps of three or four divisions organized according to the Soviet model, with tanks and armored.
Among the units of the Novorussian army there are good, bad, and worse. Shock regiments such as Somalia, Sparta, Vostok.. they are good, better than the regular Russian troops because they have combat experience, and those who have borne the brunt of the struggle in the rupture of the front and the assault on Mariupol. Then there are the militia units that now have conscripts who are worse armed and motivated.
That said, Strelkov has been deceived by sharing a blog of an alleged participant about the battle of Rubezhnoye. It is possible that he is telling the truth, or that it is based on real data, taken from participants of the battle, but I suspect that it is a fiction of the Ukrainian psychological warfare and propaganda centers. I have checked it with Russian acquaintances from military forums and people point out the obvious, that the commenters of the blog are all Ukros, and that a caricature is made of the Chechens.
It is not the first time, like the famous falsification of the testimony of a Buryat tank crewman who participated in the alleged Russian intervention in 2014.
The Siege of Kharkov
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/332687
Modernized BMP-1 armored vehicles with new turret with 30mm cannon
https://topwar.ru/195525-v-sostave-rossijskoj-gruppirovki-o-dejstvujuschej-v-rajone-limana-zamecheny-bmp-1am-basurmanin.html
About the territorial battalions
https://antimaydan.info/2022/04/chto_takoe_ukrainskaya_territorialnaya_oborona.html
About Ukrainian losses and forces in the Donbass salient
No idea how many Ukrainian troops are fixed in the Donbass salient, it's not a bag yet, but it's tens of thousands, an estimate quoted in the blog at the end of the previous report gives a figure of 60,000 that seems reasonable.
There is no escape from the bag, they have not gone anywhere, on the contrary, if you read my reports on the Izyum front they comment that the prisoners are conscripts to the force and reservists from central Ukraine, from the Russian regions, and many are middle-aged reservists. Far from retreating, they send more troops.
As for the casualties, according to the communiqués they are about a hundred Ukrainian dead collected a day, more or less. The separate communiques of the Russian army and the two republics would give about 300 dead and twice as many wounded a day on average, about a thousand daily casualties. And that those who are collected on the battlefield, the dead taken by the Ukros are not counted, nor the casualties that cannot be verified, such as those from bombings and airstrikes in the rear
I have checked the archives of my blog, and indeed in 2014-2015 during the great battles the casualties were a thousand per day, and a hundred on quiet days.
As we have already been in the war for two months, a prudent estimate would be about 50,000 casualties, between the fourth and the fifth part of the total Ukrainian forces. It should be remembered that only in Volnovakha and Mariupol suffered 15,000 casualties, most of them killed.
Today Chervonets has published on his blog about it, citing the same sources that I collect, and gives even higher figures, of 70,000 casualties among wounded dead and prisoners
https://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/4111326.html
Fragment:
"Now, the estimated real losses for the Ukrainian side are at least 30 thousand dead soldiers, with prisoners and wounded, the total 70 thousand. Of the combat-ready units and subunits of Ukraine, enlisted and instructed according to NATO standards, about 40-50% died, the rest (about 30% more) retreated to the west of the country, others were assigned in small groups to strengthen the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
as for the Russian casualties, I still quote Chervonets:
"As for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, after the losses in the first period of hostilities, when there were many cavalry attacks with the unprotected rear, the tactics changed dramatically. First, the artillery, then the sweep with infantry. The advance is slow, but the ratio of own losses to the enemy is from 1:7 to 1:10. Due to missile strikes and air superiority, the Russian troops maintain the advantage, and the losses of material and personnel are inferior by an order of magnitude. About 100 thousand soldiers of the 1 million-strong army have been sent to Ukraine, and there are no plans to mobilize in Russia.»
According to other reports citing leaks from internal Ukrainian sources, which have proven to be reliable over time, yesterday, April 27, they said the following:
"During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 680 killed, wounded and captured. The total losses in killed, wounded and prisoners in the army, National Guard and the State Border Service are more than 46 thousand people.»
Note that this figure is very close to what I estimated based on partial counts these last two months. Moreover, the one who publishes these leaks underlines that the Ukrainian General Staff does not even know its own losses completely, which is moreover completely logical when losing contact with destroyed units. On the other hand, they are also not interested, if it were not for the fact that something similar has already happened before in this war, I could not believe that the Ukrainian command hides thousands of dead as "disappeared" in order not to pay pensions.
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I wonder how many were produced so far? 
sepheronx
