Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

@ALAMO

The post WWII insurgency (with western sponsored, trained and delivered militants) cost about 47,000 security forces lives and
about 225,000 civilian lives.

Some of those UK trained insurgents I have known in Canada when they were still alive.

Conversation
Chebureki Vibes
@PelmeniPusha

Ukrainian Supply routes illustrated.

You can see the the cauldron and how it’s being formed more easily when resupply routes are visible. This is one of the most hardened defensive areas in the world but it’s being broken piece by piece.

https://twitter.com/PelmeniPusha/status/1521672352295182336/photo/1

Current front line in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1521594168388300801/photo/1

NOTE: series of 4 maps showing the front lines as of yesterday by a pro- Ukrainian poster. Interesting part is that it identifies the Ukrainian forces and their deployment. Also includes and identifies the "nationalist" units fighting in each sector.

kvs wrote:@ALAMO

The post WWII insurgency (with western sponsored, trained and delivered militants) cost about 47,000 security forces lives and
about 225,000 civilian lives.  

Some of those UK trained insurgents I have known in Canada when they were still alive.  

Yes, those people and the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian plus Croatians special immigrants after the war. We were so fortunate And their descendants are everywhere

Garryb you are the best

"Your sun just set brother" hahaha

I told you guys they were cubans

franco wrote:Current front line in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1521594168388300801/photo/1

NOTE: series of 4 maps showing the front lines as of yesterday by a pro- Ukrainian poster. Interesting part is that it identifies the Ukrainian forces and their deployment. Also includes and identifies the "nationalist" units fighting in each sector.

Currently Kharkov and Nikolaev are just side shows.



Nevertheless there was a post some days ago on some quiet reliable Twitter feed that stated that the Nazi forces around the Kharkov had sustained huge losses in the last weeks.

Twitter isn't reliable and any information there should be taken with a degree of salt.

Or is it only Twitter feeds that post news you support are reliable, there's a word for that

Sunrise has vuelto a Arkhanshel mas loco de lo que ya es. Buena carnada, se la comio completa. Ahora esta 100% seguro que somos cubanos, hasta la tumba. No hacen a stupidos como estos ya. Imaginate si escribimos en polaco o ukraniano.

Anyway, interesting comments by Zelensky and crowd about negotiations these past few days. Even if you peel the public posturing layer off, and how detached to reality some of it is, it does tell of the purpose of their mandate, and the futility of negotiation with such leadership on anything "neutral". Russia may force them to sign the land grabs but "neutrality" will be all but a sham. Thus, it's imperative to not just control Novorussya, whatever that turns out to be on an administrative district to district basis, that will require land occupation and control in order to be wrestled away from Kiev but also most of all Ukraine, not just parts of the East, including Kiev. There won't be a neutral Ukraine, just like there isn't a neutral Swiss, Swede, or Finn - you can take that to the bank.

As for the message... I'll get to it when I can.

klahtinen wrote:Finnish newspapers are writing that Russia is about to be greatly defeated in Kharkov region because of a very clever Ukrainian counter-attack. Is there any truth in that?

Russian forces are indeed under retreat around city, past few days 6 settlements were taken by Ukraine:
Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prilesne and Molodova according to Ukraine live map. So yes on that front Ukraine is slowly gaining - but I doubt that some big and sudden change will happen overall.

mr_hd wrote:

klahtinen wrote:Finnish newspapers are writing that Russia is about to be greatly defeated in Kharkov region because of a very clever Ukrainian counter-attack. Is there any truth in that?

Russian forces are indeed under retreat around city, past few days 6 settlements were taken by Ukraine:
Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prilesne and Molodova according to Ukraine live map. So yes on that front Ukraine is slowly gaining - but I doubt that some big and sudden change will happen overall.

Not an issue until they get close to the railway line crossing from Belgorod. The rest is just some distraction tying up Ukrainian units while attrition is applied.

Rouble hits an all time high.

I've been saying this ever since the conflict started...sanctions work, but they work only against those countries that lack natural resources and human resources. Russia certainly doesn't fit that bill.

For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

Scorpius wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

Hole wrote:
Su-24M dropping bombs

Interesting is the time delay.
If you will watch the full film, there is A LOT of time before bombs detonate.
And the bombs do not look like a runway/bunker busters

These are ordinary high-explosive bombs. The delay is caused by the fact that they are being dropped from an extremely low altitude, so if these bombs exploded immediately, the plane that dropped them would fall under the fragments of its own bombs. In addition, this method of dropping bombs (the aircraft was actively maneuvering at the same time) does not allow for accurate bombing, so it can be assumed that the target was an area, and in fact this bombing is analogous to firing from MLRS - the defeat of an area poorly protected target.

It looks like parachute retarded bombs so the delay isn't necessary for the plane to get safely away. Maybe it is a funny trick to get entrenched people. The people in the trench think its a dud, look over the edge were t impacted and get killed by blast and shrapnel. Back then in Vietnam time delay was used to get the Vietcong. They put a delay for several hours or even days. The Vietcong dug the supposedly dud out, took it to their hiding to get the explosives out, but then, surprise, it went off in their hiding place.

But,I'am not targeteer, so who knows..

Sincerely,
Lesley

There are claims that the Russian forces have entered the Azovstal plant.

Any truth to this?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

Fully agree and it is only path that Ukraine is following right now, so yes there is big danger for Russia, the longer conflict persist the longer risk is that Russia will need additional forces and full mobilization. Already that Russia needs to include paramilitary forces from Donbass and Chechens is clear sign of that. If fight continues of this intensity - tons of equipment and a lot of people are lost daily on both sides, in 2-3 months there will be some serious decisions needed on Russian side and very little good options. Very long and bloody conflict - years or even decades long is also realistic scenario.

If you start a war or "special operation" you should always have on your back-pocket the "all in" option. Otherwise you're just incompetent, and shouldn't be ruling in the first place... but then again, if someone of that caliber gets the seat, it tells a lot about potential replacements as well.

There has to be an "all in" option for Russia's sake. Russia lacks most of all human resources... it has an infinite amount of wealth when it comes to land/natural resources - that has never been the issue. The Russians in Ukraine number in the tens of millions, holding a made up nationality/passport that says: Ukraine. So it's not just those in the East that need saving.... all of them are worth the trouble and much more. Those who leak and migrate West, become cogs in Western, not Russian economic engines. Russia isn't going to solve its demographic issues by policies just alone (they'll help but won't solve the lack of significant growth issue), thus immigration, if done properly and is selective is key. When it comes to Ukraine it's a no-brainer. If you think managing the bad apples that get through is a reason why you shouldn't pursue integrating these folks you're a fucking idiot. As Putin himself said, the people's of Ukraine are part of the same flock as triune nation. If you look at WW2 from a demographics perspective, the Germans won that war. Russia has not been able to recover from the 27 million + blow, and it shows, even today, capping economic potential.

Mir wrote:

limb wrote:
In any case, that Su-24 was horribly vulnerable to AA fire. This bombing is straight out of WW2. Why would it need to bomb so low when it has the SVP-24?

As far as I know no Su-24's have been lost on the Russian side so far? If I'm not mistaken the strike took place during the night which would make it very hard for optical AA's to spot at such low level anyway.

I think it the best way to attack/fly in a modern air defence environment. Although the integrated AD is destroyed a single Strela, 2S6, or MANPAD can ruin your day. So you fly low to avoid radar detection and make it more difficult for optical trackers to spot and track you. It is quit difficult to track an aircraft flying at treetop level near the speed of sound.

Something that NATO trained for years to survive the Warsaw Pact air defences, even with special low level training in Canada were they trained to fly so low that in some cases the ventral fins of Dutch F-16s were damaged by treetops.

It is something that after 20 years Afghanistan is neglected here....

Sincerely,
Lesley

Ukraine's economy is on Western life support, as it was before this war but even more so now. It's a Western colony in so far as the territory under the control of Kiev. The Kievan leadership thus answers to their masters.... who are not, Russians. That is, they will be guaranteed to be fed, even if not filet migeon... and that includes its soldiers who are doing "gods work" for them.

Instead of doing regicide stuff.... there is a simpler solution. Take out the leadership, military/political/oligarchs..... leave only a couple standing to sign the surrender of the whole nation. It's by no means simple... rats know how to hide when their hide is on the line, but extremely do-able.

Much easier, less bodies, less harm to the little people that will in the future become your citizens, and your allies in the never ending, ever lasting war for power vs. the West.

Don't just publicly threaten to eliminate this leadership then go silent when your public threats become public called bluffs.

The Kremlin knows what has to be done. It drags its feet in any way, shape or form from doing what it should have been done in 2014, and what it should have done on the onset of this operation from DAY 0. It's paying for it dearly, as it did then, as it's doing now.

Fools.

Also, fire, Sergey Naryshkin. You shouldn't have a peace party operative at the helm of what should be your most aggressive, secretive, dirtiest agency (branch). "We must negotiate"... the fuk? If he wants a transfer to the Foreign Ministry, expedite asap.

"If you look at WW2 from a demographic perspective, the Germans won that war. Russia has not been able to recover from the 27 million + blow, and it shows, even today, capping economic potential."

It was not just WWII. Khruschev, in addition to other brilliant moves like handing Crimea over to Ukraine, reversed Stalin's abortion ban (instituted to promote population growth). The rate of abortions in the Soviet Union in the 1960s and 1970s was staggering.

PhSt wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

How about Russia blow up Ukrop food storage areas, destroy enough food supplies to the point where Ukrops will have to decide whether to feed their civilians or canonfodder troops

They'll just bring in free food from other places.

Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces during the day destroyed: 4 artillery batteries at firing positions, 3 ammunition depots near Mirnaya Dolina, Bakhmutskaya and Tashkovka, 20 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, and 1 US-made counter-battery radar station near Popasnaya.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Force have hit 77 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 310 nationalists, as well as 36 units of weapons and military equipment.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 1 Ukrainian battery of BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers at firing positions, as well as 83 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

Russian air defence means have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles during the day near Avdeevka, Severodonetsk and Veselaya Gora in the Lugansk People's Republic, as well as over Zmeinyi Island.

In addition, 2 Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been shot down in the air near Shpakovka, Kharkov Region.

In total, 146 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 712 unmanned aerial vehicles, 287 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,817 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 323 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,292 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,624 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en