Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15

What I keep finding strange is the continued activity of the Ukrainian air force. Is this really just some guys piecing together air frames by the wayside somewhere?

Fred333 wrote:What I keep finding strange is the continued activity of the Ukrainian air force. Is this really just some guys piecing together air frames by the wayside somewhere?

Yes, who services those jets? Su-24 flying in from Romania too? Nothing AWACS coverage wouldn't find out.

Fred333 wrote:What I keep finding strange is the continued activity of the Ukrainian air force. Is this really just some guys piecing together air frames by the wayside somewhere?

The Russians just havent really bombed everything yet. Like Uzhorod International airport near border.  The thing can still support sorties.  Also there is possibility of the use of NATO country airfield which make a safe haven for the Ukrainian Airforce.

The only thing Russia can do is shooting down the aircraft and so far so good. in that respect.

Regular wrote:


Yes, who services those jets? Su-24 flying in from Romania too? Nothing AWACS coverage wouldn't find out.

That's problem. I'm curious if Russia deploy A-50's to Black Sea. They do have A-50 Coverage in Belarus but that wont cover the whole nation.

Fred333 wrote:What I keep finding strange is the continued activity of the Ukrainian air force. Is this really just some guys piecing together air frames by the wayside somewhere?

Honestly, they seem to be full kamikaze at this point. Much like the Japanese in the Pacific in WWII, their tactics will cause damage, Russia may even lose choppers, ships, and tanks, but ultimately it won't do all that much to alter the course of the war. The only way Russia loses this thing is if it loses the political will to wage it. Now to be sure, I am just an arm chair general in the states who reads David Glantz and presentations by him and Jonathan House when I am not watching Yuri Ozerov epics such as Battle for Moscow and Liberation, but my only qualm with the Russian effort in this war is I am just not under the impression that they have committed enough troops to hastily end this war, but then the results achieved with 60 to 80,000 troops in a mostly limited war has been pretty good.

Fred333 wrote:What I keep finding strange is the continued activity of the Ukrainian air force. Is this really just some guys piecing together air frames by the wayside somewhere?

They seem to be using the intl airport at Odessa.

franco wrote:

dionis wrote:Is this Spetsnaz of some sort? Curious if anyone knows... sorry for repost.

Could be or naval infantry or any motor rifle? Do you have where the photo originated from?

User "Hole" posted this in the previous thread. Couldn't find any other tags or related info unfortunately.

This pic was there as well:

If this was a Russian helicopter, why wouldn't they send it without any fighter or AD cover?

The Russians just havent really bombed everything yet. Like Uzhorod International airport near border. The thing can still support sorties. Also there is possibility of the use of NATO country airfield which make a safe haven for the Ukrainian Airforce.

The only thing Russia can do is shooting down the aircraft and so far so good. in that respect.

Why aren't they bombing the international airports?

Regular wrote:

Big_Gazza wrote:Nice footage of Ukrop Mi-8 getting splashed while landing troops.  Apologies for the music....

Ukro trash and their minions insist it was Russian chopper.... meh, orcs gonna orc...

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1523236811488718850

According to most trusted Russian sources - Rybar and Wagner themselves, it was Russian Mi-8 AMTSh

(

Unfortunately, we have to state that the video (https://t.me/rybar/32364) with the destruction of the Mi-8AMTSh from Zmeiny Island is not the result of the work of the RF Armed Forces. This is a Russian helicopter destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The board was assigned to the 487th separate helicopter regiment. The deputy commander of the regiment for military-political work was also killed. Eternal memory to the fallen.

The island is now in the gray zone.

UPD: For especially zealous subscribers and advisers: if we are mistaken in something or receive incorrect information, we are not ashamed to admit it. And if we deny real combat losses, we will simply devalue the combat work of the RF Armed Forces and the memory of the fallen.

So who is Rybkar? Is he Russian intel agent or working for MoD? Or are we just assuming things again like with the disgraced fighter who was forced out of the war back in 2014?

Don't believe everything you read. Even the other post mentioned in an update that if they are wrong they are wrong which indicates that they aren't certain either.

Not saying it's for sure Ukrainian or Russian but to say "most trusted source" by who's account?  Because the Russian mod has been tight lipped and so has a lot of the Russian command so to say "trusted source" is like saying source = my ass.

So can we have confirmation of everyone on-board who died? Names and ranks? I mean, trusted source should know, right? Would be best to honor the dead knowing who it was.

dionis wrote:

franco wrote:

dionis wrote:Is this Spetsnaz of some sort? Curious if anyone knows... sorry for repost.

Could be or naval infantry or any motor rifle? Do you have where the photo originated from?

User "Hole" posted this in the previous thread. Couldn't find any other tags or related info unfortunately.

This pic was there as well:

Pics are most likely from Mariupol.

sepheronx wrote:A few pantsirs, tor and a buk would be sufficient for protecting the island.

Only reason to hold the island is to prevent Romania to get it.

Deploy a Niobium radar + 2 x Tor and Pantsir and keep an constant air patrol around the area. There are 150+ MiG-31´s available, this shouldn´t be a problem.

Topografic map.

Someone forget a few rockets in the forrest.

Very fitting, the tank looks like the failed state

Even in the days of drones, its the hill dear boy, the hill.

Levi
@Levi_godman
·
1h
The importance of Popasna [260m] in one picture

ucmvulcan wrote:but my only qualm with the Russian effort in this war is I am just not under the impression that they have committed enough troops to hastily end this war, but then the results achieved with 60 to 80,000 troops in a mostly limited war has been pretty good.  

They're not trying to end this war quickly and they should take their sweet f*cking time methodically demilitarizing and denazifying Banderistan for good. After allying with actual Nazis in WW2 and reanimating its bastardized Neonazi corpse 77 years later, The Ukraine has essentially forfeited its right to exist as Russia's neighbor and we can only hope that they don't stop at Odessa. Let the EU form an Iron Curtain around themselves and take the rabid, barking, Baltic lap-rats with them. 

Some deputy said in an interview that they will only stop at the polish border.

Hole wrote:Some deputy said in an interview that they will only stop at the polish border.

Maybe.

I'm still at the mind that Kiev is as far as they go north/west and Odessa south.

sepheronx wrote:

So who is Rybkar? Is he Russian intel agent or working for MoD? Or are we just assuming things again like with the disgraced fighter who was forced out of the war back in 2014?

Don't believe everything you read. Even the other post mentioned in an update that if they are wrong they are wrong which indicates that they aren't certain either.

Not saying it's for sure Ukrainian or Russian but to say "most trusted source" by who's account?  Because the Russian mod has been tight lipped and so has a lot of the Russian command so to say "trusted source" is like saying source = my ass.

So can we have confirmation of everyone on-board who died? Names and ranks? I mean, trusted source should know, right?  Would be best to honor the dead knowing who it was.

Rybar are Russian OSINT community with sources in the military. So far more accurate than even any MOD, Russian or Ukrainian ( ) Never did they post Ukrainian propaganda or other crap. In the past, they posted confirmed leaks, geolocated Ukrainian positions, and so on.


You probably know them by these maps, see the current one below



If RU MOD sees no benefit to confirm losses on the island - they will not do that, at least straight away.

I understand the doubt, but soon we will know the truth anyway and I doubt they would be pulling things out of their ass. Especially RSOTM guys, no matter how blunt they sound sometimes.

I only hope that these things will not happen in the future (TB-2 raids, MiG-29 over Odesa, Su-25 and Mi-8 in East) and that the Russian airforce will be implemented en masse. Not even a fly should be able to take off from Ukrainian territory.

I doubt it very much because having such sources in the military is leaking secrets that is actually a punishable offense in Russia.  I believe it's upwards to 10 years in prison. Maybe mistaken for 5 with another law.

So I doubt it. You can believe if all you want though.

Like many have said before, even professionals have said: don't believe everything on the internet. We still don't have names nor images thus it puts into question the OSINT now doesn't it?

I don't deny it. But I'll wait for actual evidence of such.

Because the one major question is, why would Russia send a helicopter of some men to the island they already had? Or if it was abandoned? During a bombing campaign?

Hole wrote:

Deploy a Niobium radar + 2 x Tor and Pantsir and keep an constant air patrol around the area. There are 150+ MiG-31´s available, this shouldn´t be a problem.

The concern is that the proximity of the island is very close to Ukrainian coast. about 40-50 km from the center of the island. This is well within range of small UAV's like Switchblade, they can deploy en-masse and saturate defenses there, before followed by TB-2 or other means of strikes.

These small UAV's are extremely hard to detect and apparently cheap enough so expending some 50 of these for getting some Pantsyrs or Tor kills are worth it. Deploying S-400 or large systems increases the value even more that Ukraine may be willing to commit whatever left in their Tochka arsenal or sending more Switchblades.

The island is also small, very small. There just not many places to hide or do scout and shoot tactics. The red circle in image is 310 meter in diameter.




In the other hand, if Ukraine took the island, they wont be able to do anything to hide their assets. If they deploy Neptun their deployment will be visible and hard to camouflage, the battery also wont be able to run anywhere. Unlike when it still in Odessa where the land are far wider, more place to run and hide.

Stealthflanker wrote:

Hole wrote:

Deploy a Niobium radar + 2 x Tor and Pantsir and keep an constant air patrol around the area. There are 150+ MiG-31´s available, this shouldn´t be a problem.

The concern is that the proximity of the island is very close to Ukrainian coast.  about 40-50 km from the center of the island.  This is well within range of small UAV's like Switchblade, they can deploy en-masse and saturate defenses there, before followed by TB-2 or other means of strikes.  

These small UAV's are extremely hard to detect and apparently cheap enough so expending some 50 of these for getting some Pantsyrs or Tor kills are worth it.  Deploying S-400 or large systems increases the value even more that Ukraine may be willing to commit whatever left in their Tochka arsenal or sending more Switchblades.

The island is also small, very small.  There just not many places to hide or do scout and shoot tactics.   The red circle in image is 310 meter in diameter.




In the other hand, if Ukraine took the island, they wont be able to do anything to hide their assets. If they deploy Neptun their deployment will be visible and hard to camouflage, the battery also wont be able to run anywhere. Unlike when it still in Odessa where the land are far wider, more place to run and hide.

You are indeed correct on the actual value of the island. It isn't a whole lot.

They could actually hit it with artillery from Odessa which makes it even cheaper.

sepheronx wrote:I doubt it very much because having such sources in the military is leaking secrets that is actually a punishable offense in Russia.  I believe it's upwards to 10 years in prison. Maybe mistaken for 5 with another law.

So I doubt it. You can believe if all you want though.

Like many have said before, even professionals have said: don't believe everything on the internet. We still don't have names nor images thus it puts into question the OSINT now doesn't it?

I don't deny it. But I'll wait for actual evidence of such.

Because the one major question is, why would Russia send a helicopter of some men to the island they already had? Or if it was abandoned? During a bombing campaign?

Based on what i am reading in tg channel, their information were, pretty much, 100%. If they ever made a mistake they were quick to rectify it, such in this case. They were first one to announce that Popasna was taken the other day. A lot of analysis, that gets disseminated through english language pro-Russian channels is theirs. They also have one more, closed channel, which publishes exact coordinates of potential targets in Ukraine. 
You believe what you want.

Stealthflanker wrote:

Hole wrote:

Deploy a Niobium radar + 2 x Tor and Pantsir and keep an constant air patrol around the area. There are 150+ MiG-31´s available, this shouldn´t be a problem.

The concern is that the proximity of the island is very close to Ukrainian coast.  about 40-50 km from the center of the island.  This is well within range of small UAV's like Switchblade, they can deploy en-masse and saturate defenses there, before followed by TB-2 or other means of strikes.  

These small UAV's are extremely hard to detect and apparently cheap enough so expending some 50 of these for getting some Pantsyrs or Tor kills are worth it.  Deploying S-400 or large systems increases the value even more that Ukraine may be willing to commit whatever left in their Tochka arsenal or sending more Switchblades.

The island is also small, very small.  There just not many places to hide or do scout and shoot tactics.   The red circle in image is 310 meter in diameter.




In the other hand, if Ukraine took the island, they wont be able to do anything to hide their assets. If they deploy Neptun their deployment will be visible and hard to camouflage, the battery also wont be able to run anywhere. Unlike when it still in Odessa where the land are far wider, more place to run and hide.

It is very hard to defend the island, as it is tiny ( roughly 1700 ha) and close to mainland. There's not much strategic value and it would be best to just leave it abandoned. Not let Ukrainians control it either. Surveillance of Romanian airspace can be easily done with AWACS. A-50U is an overkill, but Russians don't have a smaller platform, so it will have to do it.

caveat emptor wrote:

sepheronx wrote:I doubt it very much because having such sources in the military is leaking secrets that is actually a punishable offense in Russia.  I believe it's upwards to 10 years in prison. Maybe mistaken for 5 with another law.

So I doubt it. You can believe if all you want though.

Like many have said before, even professionals have said: don't believe everything on the internet. We still don't have names nor images thus it puts into question the OSINT now doesn't it?

I don't deny it. But I'll wait for actual evidence of such.

Because the one major question is, why would Russia send a helicopter of some men to the island they already had? Or if it was abandoned? During a bombing campaign?

Based on what i am reading in tg channel, their information were, pretty much, 100%. If they ever made a mistake they were quick to rectify it, such in this case. They were first one to announce that Popasna was taken the other day. A lot of analysis, that gets disseminated through english language pro-Russian channels is theirs. They also have one more, closed channel, which publishes exact coordinates of potential targets in Ukraine. 
You believe what you want.

So did they explain why there was a Russian mi-8 chopper on an abandoned island during bombing campaign that forced Russian airforce to shoot down multiple Ukrainian planes and bomb the Odessa airport in same day?

Because apparently Ukrainians were also attempting a land on the island and failed too.

https://southfront.org/battle-for-snake-island-russian-forces-left-positions-but-prevent-ukrainian-from-gaining-foothold-videos/

Actually, Il-114 would be ideal platform for this situation. It can spend 12+ hours in the air and it is much cheaper to operate , being a turboprop. I think Agat was using one plane as technology demonstrator.