Russian special military operation in Ukraine #18

There is a huge chunk of Putin baby boomer generation going to hit the adult age over the next 5 years.
So actually now is a really good time to start a war.

There is no need to mobilize, the Russian army itself is less then 50% deployed

They are deploying less than half of the army, and Rotating forces swapping batallions every couple of weeks

The bulk of the VDV and BTGs are not fighting

The advance to Kiev showed what Russia could by deploying the CAAs of Western and Southern districts

They took half of Ukraine in 1 week

It has nothing to do with mobilization, or numbers

They could be at Kiev again if they wanted to pushing from Belarus and Belgorod

They could deploy all the BTG , numbering around 180 to 200 BTGs , and launch major offensive

But that's not the plan

The plan is to attrite the VSU and bleed it white

There is no rush, if there was any imperative the General Staff and Kremlin would act

They saw what noone did leading to February 24

And again they see more than anyone on this forum or any casual observer making comments from their asses

The plan does not involve occupying Kiev or the rest of Ukraine as of this moment

Anyone who says Russia doesn't have the numbers, does not realize how little the forces are in the donbass right now

lancelot wrote:There is a huge chunk of Putin baby boomer generation going to hit the adult age over the next 5 years.
So actually now is a really good time to start a war.

There's never a good time to "start a war" unless you're the United States.

Here is a good map early in the war to understand what Russian army is capable to do, without deploying in full strength

Here nearly half of Ukraine is taken, without mobilization or full deployment of contract men

So mobilization is not needed

None in Kremlin are considering to storm it right now

It will be a long process

Backman wrote:
Take the official Russian MOD number and add 10% to it. That's what the casualties are. 10k combined  is bullshit. But it does show that insane propaganda serves a purpose. Western propagandists keep saying 40,000. And it makes 10,000 look small after awhile.

Russian MoD didn't provide any number since March 25 and then it was announced that 1351 died in combat. What number are you referring to?

One french economist resumed very well the situation. European economy is based on transforming natural ressources. Russian economy is based on extracting natural ressources. Europe imposing sanctions on Russia is just dumb. Europe has no real solution to switch from Russian supplies while Russia can find easily suppliers for its needs and sell its ressources elsewhere.

And Russia has not done anything nasty to actually inflict pain on the west... they could easily cut gas supplies to the entire EU if they wanted to, they could stop Uranium sales to the US too... they could build bio weapons labs in Mexico and Cuba and promote anti America nazis in those places too... should be easy enough with the history the US has with those regions...

Gilbert Doctorow is a pro Russia former European diplomat and corporate guy. He wrote up a peace plan for the Natl Interest. Its not something anyone here would support but its still interesting to see what a guy like this is thinking. I hope Putin doesn't see it. It looks like an idea he would like. But its too late for that even.

Russia is winning, why would they get the international (meaning the west) involved in this conflict?

The only input they have had so far is inflaming the situation with weapons and ammo and money to support one side and sanctions and abuse for the other side.

Russia has no reason to even consider letting them get the Ukraine BACK to **** Russia over again.

They screwed the country up for the last 8 years and blamed Russia for everything then too.

In addition, NATO would formally pledge not to consider Ukraine for membership.

Yeah, not a single inch eastwards... heard it before and didn't believe it then and don't believe it now.

HATO and the US and EU and Kiev cannot be trusted so why bother.

Keep talks going so they think they are not doomed and have options... but when they collapse decapitate the nazi regime and its supporters and let the remaining Ukrainians decide what they want by referendum and not by international decree.

Allied favourite passtime should be the capture of NATO Yanks and NATO Limeys at the battlefront for exchange purposes. Make a hobby collection of them.

No prisoner swaps for these bastards... Kiev wont care honestly, they will pretend to care for the countries these dirt bags come from but honestly they don't care.

They don't care about their own people... why care for someone elses?

Damn, dude is off the fuckin' chain, no wrath in hell like peacenik scorned Twisted Evil


Dmitri is firing from all PPCs simultaneously lately, someone needs to throw some coolant on his heat-sinks before he blows a reactor Cool

And he is right....

So 6x M270 and 4x M142 plus 70km max rockets.

Press release today

They are playing with Fire. Putin already said not to attack Russian territory and the US says they wont because they promised not to... but Kiev and the US view the Crimea and the bridge to the Crimea as Ukrainian territory... Russia does not see it that way and I don't think they will accept that as an excuse... I suspect a decapitation attack on Zelenzky might be the result with attacks on HATO assets supporting Kievs forces a very likely backup attack too...

They ignored Putins red lines before and where are we now?

Where will we be when Kiev does what Kiev does.

You put way too much stock in this demographics stuff

Agree, and the dismissal of Chechens and Wagner as being undesirable and something that should be expended for the benefit of all is not the way I would see things.... they have the skills and the attitude for the job.... they are being sent to kill... not sent to die... like the west would send ISIS and Nazis to the Ukraine to get rid of them from Europe.

This war isn't for fun... I appreciate white europeans don't understand, but this is survival, so lots of dead soldiers is not a problem when the alternative is WWIII nuclear exchange and we all die.

Obivously they will use tactics to minimise losses, but they wont fear public opinion about losses unless those losses are meaningless and wholely excessive winter war levels... which I doubt.

There is a huge chunk of Putin baby boomer generation going to hit the adult age over the next 5 years.
So actually now is a really good time to start a war.

Not to mention patriotism of war makes it a good time for shagging and birth rate bubbles normally increase afterwards too.

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles have destroyed 2 AFU command posts, 1 electronic warfare station near Pyatikhatka in Kharkov region, 1 Tochka-U missile launcher and 1 Uragan multiple rocket launcher near Barvenkovo in Kharkov region.

Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aviation have hit 57 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration. 3 command posts, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system near Rechka, Sumy region, as well as 1 repair and recovery point of AFU armoured vehicles near Kharkov have been destroyed.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists, 2 ammunition depots near Razdolovka in Donetsk People's Republic, 5 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 6 field artillery mounts and 11 special vehicles.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Mazanovka, Kharkov region.

Also, 7 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Tomina Balka, Sukhoi Stavok in Kherson region, Bolshiye Prokhody, Chistovodovka, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Kamenka in Kharkov region, and Zolotoe in Lugansk People's Republic.

Additionally, 1 Tochka-U ballistic missile has been intercepted near Stakhanov in Lugansk People's Republic, as well as 21 Uragan multiple-launch rockets near Chernobaevka, Sukhoi Stavok in Kherson region, Kamenka, Dolgen'koe, Malye Prokhody in Kharkov region, Donetsk, Dokuchaevsk, Sukhaya Kamenka, Yasynuvataya in Donetsk People's Republic, Kopanki, Novozvanovka in Lugansk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 195 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 34 command posts and 42 firing positions of AFU artillery units.

Missile troops and artillery have destroyed more than 200 nationalists, 1 electronic warfare station, 3 ammunition depots, 6 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1 Grad multiple rocket launcher, 4 field artillery guns, 18 special vehicles and 2 UAV control points near Zhovtnevoe and Kul'bakino in Nikolayev region.

In total, 204 Ukrainian airplanes and 131 helicopters, 1,218 unmanned aerial vehicles, 340 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,569 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 526 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,968 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,647 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/2219

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Here is a good map early in the war to understand what Russian army is capable to do, without deploying in full strength

Here nearly half of Ukraine is taken, without mobilization or full deployment of contract men

So mobilization is not needed

None in Kremlin are considering to storm it right now

It will be a long process

If they really would need more men, there are how many conscripts currently in the Army? 200.000? They would send them in before they "grab" men from their workplaces.

More western MSM at work. I actually don't see an issue in using older munitions such as Kh-22 if you have why not use them hitting buildings etc they are good enough. What's actually funny in the article is they have had no reports or in which areas the missiles have been used. So basically an article based on nothing Western MSM are scrapping the barrel seriously.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/12/russia-increasingly-relying-on-heavy-soviet-era-missiles-western-defence-officials-claim

Innacurate my foot. I saw a video of one of those missiles hit a house in Kharkov just fine.
The idea it can only hit a carrier is nonsense, it is an anti-shipping missile and can hit smaller vessels just fine.

These bastards are getting more and more delusional and are asking to get tactical nukes dropped on their stupid heads.

"New weapons will allow Ukraine to reclaim occupied territory including Crimea, says Ukrainian defense minister" -

US weapons will help Ukraine seize back Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea and Donbas, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN's Matthew Chance in an exclusive interview in Brussels.

"We are going to liberate all our territories, all of it all, including Crimea," he said.

"Crimea is a strategic objective for Ukraine because it's Ukrainian territory," Reznikov added. "But we will move step by step."

The defense minister said the first step would be stabilization of the situation on the ground to prevent further losses against Russian forces. The second stage, he said, is to push Russian forces back to their positions before the invasion on February 24.

Only in the 3rd stage, he told CNN, would there be discussions with Ukraine's partners on "how to liberate territories, including Crimea," Reznikov said. Ukraine officials say they will not use the weapons to attack the Russian Federation, however, Ukraine does not consider Crimea to be Russian territory.

When asked if attempting to recapture Crimea by military means would further provoke Russia -- which considers Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation -- Reznikov said that was not a consideration.

"It doesn't matter. Because they [Russians] will see that in Kherson, they will see it in Zaporizhzhia, they will also see it in Mariupol…. but these are Ukrainian lands, and Crimea is also Ukrainian land, no matter what," he told CNN.

More on US supply of MLRS


Ukrainian troops are a week from finishing a crash course on operating M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. The systems are donated by the U.S. and there will be more to follow once Ukrainian forces demonstrate their effective use in combat, a senior U.S. defense official said on June 14.

Colin Kahl, U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, called the first four HIMARS systems promised to Ukraine, along with 227mm Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets they'll be supplied with, an “initial tranche. It is “absolutely fair” to characterize the long-range rocket artillery systems as the first of many the U.S. will send to Ukraine’s aid, Kahl said at the Center For A New American Security (CNAS) think tank's National Security Conference in Washington, D.C.

“We’re going to provide the Ukrainians what they need to prosecute the targets inside Ukrainian territory,” Kahl said. “Because this is not a system the Ukrainians have, historically, they have to get trained on them. So we did provide an initial tranche of HIMARS systems and the Ukrainians are completing training as we speak. We expect those systems to get into the fight soon, and we're committed to continuing the flow of those munitions, and I know other allies and partners are too.”

Ukrainian officials have pleaded with donor nations for longer-range artillery systems like HIMARS and thousands of rounds of NATO-standard artillery ammunition to hold off Russian advances in the Donbas.

Kahl emphasized that the GMLRS rockets for the U.S.-supplied M142s are precision-guided munitions weighing about 500 pounds apiece and are not fired in large salvos. Instead, they are fired at specific targets and have the effect of a precision airstrike, allowing Ukraine to “do a lot with a little, or you don't need a lot to have a significant effect.” Before U.S. officials officially announced HIMARS donations to Ukraine, The War Zone made exactly the same point about these systems not being used as salvo weapons when firing guided rockets in this piece.

Kahl said there is a “palpable” sense of anxiety in Ukraine that Russia is winning the artillery duel in the Donbas region and will eventually succumb without significantly more arms from NATO and other backers. Superiority of supply in ammunition and personnel has allowed Russia to make some gains in recent days around Severodonetsk, but Russian troops are paying dearly for marginal advances, Kahl said. Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition for legacy systems and are shelled by as many as 10 Russian rounds for every one they can fire back.

“The Russians have been making gains … although the gains are really on any given day measured in blocks,” Kahl said. “They are not large sweeping breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses. The Ukrainians remain stalwart defenders. There are significant casualties, but that is true on both sides. So the Ukrainians are definitely taking casualties. The Russians are taking a lot of casualties as well, and the front lines are not moving very much.”

Russia does have more artillery in the field and more ammunition for it, but that is mainly the result of Ukraine having chewed through its stockpiles of 152mm ammunition for Soviet-era artillery cannons, Kahl said. At the outset of the war, NATO was able to rush more of that ammunition to Ukraine from former Warsaw Pact nations, but those stocks also have begun to dry up, he said.

“So we made the transition to NATO standard artillery system, specifically to M777 howitzers,” Kahl said. “We've now provided 108 of those howitzers, plus more than 220,000 rounds of ammunition.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-more-himars-on-the-way-once-ukraine-shows-it-can-use-them-in-combat

Russia's Tornado-S MLRS has even better capabilities. So whatever.

More western MSM at work. I actually don't see an issue in using older munitions such as Kh-22 if you have why not use them hitting buildings etc they are good enough. What's actually

It has the accuracy to do a good job and its size and weight means it carries a decent payload at a high speed.

They have them in stock in large numbers so why not use them up on nazis and their supporters.

They could only be called obsolete if they didn't get the job done and I would say they would do the job just fine.

Innacurate my foot. I saw a video of one of those missiles hit a house in Kharkov just fine.
The idea it can only hit a carrier is nonsense, it is an anti-shipping missile and can hit smaller vessels just fine.

Stationary buildings are easier to hit than moving ships and with active radar homing their accuracy should be rather good.

These bastards are getting more and more delusional and are asking to get tactical nukes dropped on their stupid heads.

Hitler was ordering around large German formations that did not exist in his last few days too...

“We’re going to provide the Ukrainians what they need to prosecute the targets inside Ukrainian territory,”

Yes, Ukrainian officials have been stating that if HATO gives them enough weapons and ammo that by the end of the year they expect to be taking the Crimea.... so obviously when they are not in the Crimea by the end of this year it will be because HATO didn't give them enough weapons and ammo... and nothing at all to do with what is actually happening on the ground.

BTW that chart is hilarious because the pledged/delivered section should not have delivered written there to be more accurate.

Smerch has 90km range 300mm rockets that are much more effective than than the MLRS and HIMARS 227mm rockets, which in fact don't really compare that well to 220mm Uragan rockets.

Read some uke Gaultier said they will be targeting the Crimea bridge. My question is how? Has the West given them the munitions for this?

If they try I get the suspicion that Russia might try decapitation attacks against Zelensky and the nazis around him in a way they have not done yet, and perhaps also going after some HATO support units in the Ukraine that they have been watching and listening to but not actually engaging just yet.

ucmvulcan wrote:Read some uke Gaultier said they will be targeting the Crimea bridge.  My question is how? Has the West given them the munitions for this?

I think it was their minister of defence whatever his name is, said something along the lines of they will target the bridge once they receive weapons capable of doing it from the west.
They have made the same threat before on a couple of occasions.

lancelot wrote:Innacurate my foot. I saw a video of one of those missiles hit a house in Kharkov just fine.
The idea it can only hit a carrier is nonsense, it is an anti-shipping missile and can hit smaller vessels just fine.

I've mentioned it before but the one thing this op demonstrated very clearly is the superb accuracy of Russian missiles and even much older Soviet era missiles like the Tochka and the Kh-22 proved it as well.

Guess who didn't have to go to work today?

For three months already Ukrops have been sending bomb threats to shopping malls, airports and schools here in Serbia thinking it would convince us to agree to sanction Russia and cancel flights to Moscow

Well today it was my school's turn to get bomb threat so now you get to enjoy my company earlier than usual



Those morons actually think they will convince anyone here to change their minds, only thing they are accomplishing is get everyone on board with Russia (as if we weren't already)

Tough guy wannabe soon-to-be-dead losers

I'll be enjoying my unplanned cold beverage and videogames now while Ukrops get to enjoy some Russian ordinance in copious amounts

Larry Johnson has some interesting observations about Russian approach:

https://sonar21.com/is-nato-support-for-ukraine-flagging/

...The Russian order of battle in the Donbas remains opaque. It appears that Russia is relying on the militias of Donetsk and Luhansk as the primary strike forces to retake territory in their respective regions. Russia is supplying artillery units, electonic warfare, anti-aircraft/air defense, drone intelligence and air operations with both fixed and rotary wing craft. I think some western analysts made the mistake of assuming that Russia was providing the lead strike forces and that the militias were tagging along to provide support as needed.

But there are indications that the bulk of Russian forces have not been committed to battle and are being kept in reserve along with Russia’s more advanced weaponry. I believe that the Russian General Staff want to have a card or two to play in the event that NATO decides to insert itself into the fray.

Regardless of which forces are in the lead, the “special military operation” continues to grind down Ukrainian military units and the Ukrainians have been unable to mount a credible counter offensive to push the Russians and the Donbas militias back

ucmvulcan wrote:Read some uke Gaultier said they will be targeting the Crimea bridge.  My question is how? Has the West given them the munitions for this?

Russia would go berserk after this. If that happens I expect Ukrainian officials being targeted next.

ucmvulcan wrote:Read some uke Gaultier said they will be targeting the Crimea bridge.  My question is how? Has the West given them the munitions for this?

It's general Marchenko. He has been talking a lot of shit lately. Probably, going after Zaluzhny's position.

PapaDragon wrote:
Larry Johnson has some interesting observations about Russian approach:

https://sonar21.com/is-nato-support-for-ukraine-flagging/

...The Russian order of battle in the Donbas remains opaque. It appears that Russia is relying on the militias of Donetsk and Luhansk as the primary strike forces to retake territory in their respective regions. Russia is supplying artillery units, electonic warfare, anti-aircraft/air defense, drone intelligence and air operations with both fixed and rotary wing craft. I think some western analysts made the mistake of assuming that Russia was providing the lead strike forces and that the militias were tagging along to provide support as needed.

But there are indications that the bulk of Russian forces have not been committed to battle and are being kept in reserve along with Russia’s more advanced weaponry. I believe that the Russian General Staff want to have a card or two to play in the event that NATO decides to insert itself into the fray.

Regardless of which forces are in the lead, the “special military operation” continues to grind down Ukrainian military units and the Ukrainians have been unable to mount a credible counter offensive to push the Russians and the Donbas militias back

Yes this is well known, many here are dribbling about mobilization and lack of numbers

There are very little Russian soldier currently in donbass

At very best you will see a video with a Platoon moving about, or some SSO or wagner platoon or fire squad attached to DPR units

But Russia has not committed even a quarter of their forces like in March

In March everyone saw the real deal Russian units rolling into Gostomel, Brovary, Irpen, Chernobyl

Right now Russia is taking a smoke break

As I have repeated, look at the map I posted , Russia can roll over Ukraine easily

But no forces are currently committed except the artillery forces, and separate attached platoons and companies

The bulk of the Russian army is back in Belarus and Russia proper waiting for the real phase 2 to begin

caveat emptor wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:Read some uke Gaultier said they will be targeting the Crimea bridge.  My question is how? Has the West given them the munitions for this?

It's general Marchenko. He has been talking a lot of shit lately. Probably, going after Zaluzhny's position.

Meh, set the Mev on him, he’s gunning for ruck so he is.