Russian special military operation in Ukraine #18

Gilbert Doctorow is a pro Russia former European diplomat and corporate guy. He wrote up a peace plan for the Natl Interest. Its not something anyone here would support but its still interesting to see what a guy like this is thinking.  I hope Putin doesn't see it. It looks like an idea he would like. But its too late for that even. This is basically a way of Taiwanizing the conflict for 25 years. And we see how that is working out today. (badly)

The essence of it is:

In exchange for the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of its forces, Russia would be obliged to not annex the regions it currently occupies and agree to hold a status referendum there under international supervision, some ten to twenty years from now. Ukraine, for its part, would accept its temporary loss of control over Novorossiya (the regions of Donbass, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Nikolayev), with the proviso that their status will be ultimately determined by the referendum outcome.

In addition, NATO would formally pledge not to consider Ukraine for membership. In deference to Ukraine, however, there would be no formal pledge of Ukrainian neutrality. This would permit Ukraine to receive a wide variety of defensive military assistance and training from other countries, short of permanent foreign bases and weapons systems capable of striking Russian territory. Ukraine’s security concerns would be further allayed by a formal pledge by Russia that it will not object to European Union (EU) membership for Ukraine, opening the door to the multi-year assistance with investments and reforms that Ukraine will desperately need to recover.

Russian security, meanwhile, would be bolstered by international recognition of Novorossiya (some of the mechanisms used to defuse the dispute over the Free Territory of Trieste and Saarland might apply). A demilitarized zone on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border could be created and security further enhanced by the commitment of several key states to ensure the borders of both Ukraine and Novorossiya.

Full article https://nationalinterest.org/feature/building-lasting-settlement-ukraine-202920

What a piece of BS. Tells you for whom Doctorow is working. The time for such "plans" is over. West had his chance back in December.

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-messy-grind-again-and-more-great-walkback/
Dmitry Medvedev: “I saw a message that Ukraine wants to receive LNG from its overseas owners under Lend-Lease with payment for delivery in 2 years. Otherwise, next winter it will simply freeze.
Just a question.

And who said that in two years Ukraine will even exist on the world map? Although the Americans don’t care anymore – they have invested so much in the “anti-Russia” project that everything else is a trifle for them.”





Another statement by Medvedev.

Ispan wrote:
Russian and Donbass casualties have been high enough already. From the numbers given in lostarmour info for Donetsk they may be around 30 thousand dead, wounded and missing and still no end in sight.

30,000?

LDNR have IMO 5000-6000 KIA. Probably more wounded, and missing/captured dunno, but probably not a lot as they're fighting on their own territory

flamming_python wrote:30,000?

LDNR have IMO 5000-6000 KIA. Probably more wounded, and missing/captured dunno, but probably not a lot as they're fighting on their own territory

Russia and LDNR combined are probably at 10K dead by now. Add double that amount for injured and you are at 30k combined. I don't think that number of missing captured is more than 1-1.5k.

VARGR198 wrote:

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1537100401614458882

Allied favourite passtime should be the capture of NATO Yanks and NATO Limeys at the battlefront for exchange purposes. Make a hobby collection of them.

flamming_python wrote:There was a photo a couple of days ago of a Ukrainian S-300V TELAR moving along a road in the Donbass in broad daylight
https://t.me/intelslava/31110

I understand 24/7 surveillance is not possible even over a limited area, but Russia really needs to get its arms around this whole issue. It needs more drones up in the air, more informants, more frequent satellite data, and a better idea of what is moving where and when.
Because a S-300V is really a rather large vehicle and moreover a dangerous one. The situation should not be such that the Ukrainians feel safe enough to move it around during the day on a road.

The Nazis lost thousand of artillery and air defence pieces, tanks and trucks with stunts like this since the beginning of the SMO. Theys don´t feel safe, this shows you that the political and military leadership doesn´t care about the little foot soldier.

A single transport/launch vehicle isn´t dangerous. It is useless without an air surveillance and a fire control radar and as soon as they start to operate they are destroyed. That´s why there is not a single report of a Ukro S-300 or S-300V system shooting something down.

Hole wrote:

flamming_python wrote:There was a photo a couple of days ago of a Ukrainian S-300V TELAR moving along a road in the Donbass in broad daylight
https://t.me/intelslava/31110

I understand 24/7 surveillance is not possible even over a limited area, but Russia really needs to get its arms around this whole issue. It needs more drones up in the air, more informants, more frequent satellite data, and a better idea of what is moving where and when.
Because a S-300V is really a rather large vehicle and moreover a dangerous one. The situation should not be such that the Ukrainians feel safe enough to move it around during the day on a road.

The Nazis lost thousand of artillery and air defence pieces, tanks and trucks with stunts like this since the beginning of the SMO. Theys don´t feel safe, this shows you that the political and military leadership doesn´t care about the little foot soldier.

A single transport/launch vehicle isn´t dangerous. It is useless without an air surveillance and a fire control radar and as soon as they start to operate they are destroyed. That´s why there is not a single report of a Ukro S-300 or S-300V system shooting something down.

They certainly are dangerous as where a TELAR vehicle can be found, a radar vehicle and command vehicle could be somewhere nearby or travelling seperately

There have been a number of Russian aircraft shotdown throught the course of the conflict, in most cases we don't know by what systems. Missile interception we don't have statistics on, but it's not good either if it means losing the element of surprise against some Ukrainian or merc military hideout as the missile was destroyed en-route.
Moreover Russian aircraft still cannot operate freely because of exactly hidden systems such as this. Only this one isn't even bothering to hide but traveling in the open during day time
All air-defense vehicles must be priority targets

ALAMO wrote:

sepheronx wrote:
Really goes counter to US claims that Russia isn't an economic power and is just a gas station masquerading as a country, eh?

Russia is world's 3rd or 4th energy producer, depending on the measures.
That production goes both for domestic needs and export.
Well ahead of both Japan and Germany.
In terms of fossil fuels, they are 2nd.
Ze Wezt really believed their own propaganda.

That's an important point.

Russia uses 2/3rds. of it's gas and oil production for domestic consumption, and it exports the remaining 1/3rd.
The US uses all it's oil production for domestic consumption, then has to go out and get almost as much again from the rest of the world. The US doesn't have enough LNG to supply the EU, so what is the point of trying to cut a deal to export.

https://www.worldometers.info/gas/us-natural-gas/#gas-reserves

The US has only 12years of LNG left if they don't export, less if the do.

That's why they want to pillage Russia's reserves and the Middle East.

OT. Was passing through a small town called wolverhampton in uk yesterday, just after Hungary vs England, the triumphant Hungarians was celebrating enthusiastically, as I drove past I saw some youngsters burning a ukie flag, seeing that i stopped and pulled out my small St George ribbon and Russian flag combo, in no time at all while waving it in the air and blasting the car horn, the whistles and cheers that followed was absolutely madness, the Hungarian fans started shouting and clapping. Lolll

I finally filled the missing gaps. sorry for not keeping it up to date every day but this heat wave killed me

reports on the last 3 days, overall situation and todays briefing

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/06/15/noticias-de-la-guerra-15-06-2022/

Backman wrote:Gilbert Doctorow is a pro Russia former European diplomat and corporate guy. He wrote up a peace plan for the Natl Interest.
..................
Full article https://nationalinterest.org/feature/building-lasting-settlement-ukraine-202920

That would be one massive F*CK and a NO on this topic

This whole ''international law yada-yada'' train has rolled off the runway and sailed away years ago

Right now we are firmly in finders-keepers zone

Kiko wrote:

VARGR198 wrote:https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1537100401614458882

Allied favourite passtime should be the capture of NATO Yanks and NATO Limeys at the battlefront for exchange purposes. Make a hobby collection of them.

Screw that

Black Dolphin, lifetime, no discussions

Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says

Hole wrote:

Another statement by Medvedev.

Damn, dude is off the fuckin' chain, no wrath in hell like peacenik scorned  


Dmitri is firing from all PPCs simultaneously lately, someone needs to throw some coolant on his heat-sinks before he blows a reactor  

So 6x M270 and 4x M142 plus 70km max rockets.

Press release today

The United States, United Kingdom, and Germany are deeply committed to supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Russia has shifted its focus to the Donbas region, where it is engaging in a systematic long-range rocket and artillery barrage against defensive Ukrainian military positions and civilian infrastructure alike.

To help Ukraine defend its citizens and sovereign territory, the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany have committed to provide Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) with Guided MLRS (GMLRS) rockets. Ukraine has specifically requested this capability, which will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to engage the invading force with accurate fire at ranges of approximately 70 kilometers.

The United States announced on June 1, 2022 that it would provide four M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and GMLRS munitions. On June 6, the United Kingdom announced it would donate three M270 MLRS launchers with GMLRS munitions.

And today, at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, Belgium, Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht announced that Germany would transfer three M270 Mittleres Artillerie Raketen System (MARS) launchers and GMLRS ammunition from Bundeswehr stocks.

The transfer of these MLRS systems, and the associated training our three countries will provide to Ukrainian operators is crucial to Ukraine’s self-defense. The necessary training has already begun on the U.S. HIMARS and UK M270 systems for their deployment in the coming weeks, and training on the German MARS launchers will begin very soon so the systems and their Ukrainian crews can be deployed urgently and without delay.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-uk-mod-us-dod-and-german-defence-ministry

psg wrote:OT. Was passing through a small town called wolverhampton in uk yesterday, just after Hungary vs England, the triumphant Hungarians was celebrating enthusiastically, as I drove past I saw some youngsters burning a ukie flag, seeing that i stopped and pulled out my small St George ribbon and Russian flag combo, in no time at all while waving it in the air and blasting the car horn, the whistles and cheers that followed was absolutely madness, the Hungarian fans started shouting and clapping. Lolll

Moral of the story is

Always have your St. George's ribbon and Russian tricolour combo at the ready on the back seat somewhere, never know when you might need it

Ispan wrote:I finally filled the missing gaps. sorry for not keeping it up to date every day but this heat wave killed me

reports on the last 3 days, overall situation and todays briefing

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/06/15/noticias-de-la-guerra-15-06-2022/

War news 06/15/2022 - special report
15 June, 2022 Zhukov



Summaries of Readovka

12 June

https://readovka .news/news/100648

13 June

https://readovka .news/news/100718

summary of Cassad

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7675432.html

14 June

https://readovka .news/news/100863



General status of operations:

Kharkov: Here, after alternating advances and setbacks, there are villages that have changed hands several times, and the Russians seem to have returned the Ukrainians to their starting positions. To emphasize that the front is fluid, there is no fierce fighting, simply the weakness of Russian forces here encouraged the Ukrainians to launch prestige attacks that are repelled as soon as the Russians send reinforcements.



Despite having become a secondary front, artillery duels are constant and the fighting takes many lives, as this photo of a Ukrainian cemetery in Kharkov confirms

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7678528.html

Izyum: Ukrainian attempts to ford the river and a concentration of forces in Balakleya with the intention of attacking the Russian flank continue, but it does not seem to worry the Russian command.

Rybar and Gleb Bazov (June 14)

South of Balakleya, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gathering troops and armored vehicles for another offensive attempt. Along the suffered Rubicon of the line Chepel—Protopopovka—Petrovsky that follows the river Seversky Donets [GB: Where countless attempts by ukrainians (none successful) to organize a pontoon bridge have been thwarted by Russian forces, with significant forces personnel and materialucranianos decimated], the control of the Ukrainian continues trying to organize a crossing of the river Seversky Donets, with the clear goal of attacking the rear of the group Izyum that advances on Slavyansk. In response, the Russian armed forces systematically fire on the positions of Ukrainian formations in this area.

Sources in the Kharkov theater of the conflict point to the noticeable weakening of the Ukrainian defensive lines after a significant military personnel of the Kraken punitive battalion of the neo-Nazi Azov regiment and the Foreign (mercenary) Legion were transferred to the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk direction, to confront the advancing Allied forces. These mercenary and Nazi fighters are being methodically crushed by the allied Russian armies.

As a result of this transfer, the Ukrainian forces are faced with a relative rupture in the Rubezhnoye/Stary Saltov area. As noted above, this also happened with the collapse of the Ukrainian defenses in Svyatogorsk, and since then in Tatyanovka, Prishib and Bogorodnichnoye, after Ukrainian units were taken from there and deployed in the Severodonetsk industrial area.

While Ukraine may have a significant amount of untrained personnel reserves, it is beginning to suffer from a glaring deficit of military or naval cadres. In some brigades it is reported that they operate with up to 60% losses/replacement rates of trained soldiers, the cascading effects on the Ukrainian defensive lines on the eastern front are only beginning to show.

North of the Donbass salient

The Russians have managed to ford the river at a couple of points

https://topwar.ru/197614-vs-rf-primenili-taktiku-forsirovanija-severskogo-donca-srazu-na-dvuh-uchastkah-pod-svjatogorskom.html

Slavyansk:

Battle for Slaviansk: situation at 15.00 on June 15, 2022

The Russian Armed Forces gained a foothold in the village of Bogorodichnoe. Cleared forests on the border of the Kharkov and Donetsk regions along the M03 highway, occupied village Dolina, fighting is underway in the village of Krasnopolye.

In Mirny, on the northwestern outskirts of Slavyansk, the checkpoint of the 15th regiment of the National Guard is located, which is entrusted with the task of preparing defensive lines on the way of the offensive of the Russian forces.

The defense on the M03 highway in the area of crossings, as well as under Novonikolayevka is occupied by units of the 14th Separate Infantry Division of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On Aleksandrovka In the Slavyansk area, additional forces are being deployed from Kiev to increase the combat capabilities of the 241st teroborona brigade.

In Kramatorsk by rail transferred the next reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

East of the salient - Severodonetsk

Since the 13th the Ukrainian forces at the Azot factory have been isolated as the last bridge over the river has been blown up. Estimates of encircled enemy troops range from 500 to 2,000 but the

https://topwar.ru/197661-basurin-u-blokirovannyh-v-severodonecke-podrazdelenij-vsu-esche-ostalsja-shans-kapitulirovat.html

All these advances are confirmed by the enemy command

https://topwar.ru/197659-ukrainskij-genshtab-priznal-mnozhestvennye-uspehi-vs-rf-ot-severodonecka-do-severa-harkovskoj-oblasti.html

South of the Donbass salient

The front has stabilized to the west there are no more advances towards Artemovsk (Bakhmut) for days, but to the south a small pocket around the Svetlodarsk reservoir is being completed, and today it has taken Vrubovka with which the Zolotoye pocket narrows.

These advances in Svitlodarsk were confirmed yesterday by the Ukrainian command

https://topwar.ru/197700-gsh-vsu-rossijskie-vojska-provodjat-shturmovye-dejstvija-na-bahmutskom-napravlenii-imejut-uspeh.html





Liberation of Vruboka

https://topwar.ru/197800-posle-osvobozhdenija-nashimi-vojskami-vrubovki-garnizon-protivnika-v-zolotom-popadaet-v-esche-bolee-glubokij-ognevoj-meshok.html

The garrison of Zolotoye blocked

https://topwar.ru/197665-zablokirovan-ukrainskij-garnizon-v-gorode-zolotoe.html

Summary of the day – Cassad

the war in Ukraine. Summary of 15.06.2022

1. Severodonetsk.
The enemy in the industrial zone of the Azot plant is partially isolated from the main forces in Lisichansk. The estimated group size reaches 2500 people + an unspecified number of vehicles. The group cannot be supplied normally. Because of this, as well as in Azovstal, there was talk of "humanitarian corridors".
Fighting for the villages on the eastern outskirts of Severodonetsk. The enemy admits very large losses in the battles for the city.

2. Slavyansk.
Fighting in Bogorodichny. The Ukrainian Armed Forces recognize the loss of half the villagea, our sources claim the liberation of Bogorodichny. In fact, it is still in the disputed area.
Our troops broke through the enemy's defenses near the Dolina and began fighting on the territory of the village.
Fighting in the Tatianovka area and in the direction of Sidorovo.
The Seversky Donetsk River in the direction of Raigorodok or Seversk is not yet forced.

3. Kharkiv.
Fighting in the area of Verkhny Saltov, Ternovoye and Rubezhnoye.
Located south of Kazachaya Lopano in the area of Velikiye Prokhody and Tsupovka. The fortified area of Zolochiv and the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Saltovka and Chuguev are being actively attacked by Russian Forces.
Attempts by the Ukrainian Forces to attackthe flank of the Izyum group of the Russian army were not significantly successful.

4. Avdeyevka.
Fighting near Krasnogorovka and New York, but without serious advances. The enemy continued to bombard the Donetsk-Gorlovka agglomeration.

5. Artemovsk.
The Russian Forces repelled all attempts by the enemy to regain control of the village of Roty and, in turn, advanced in the direction of the villages of Vershina and Semigorye. The situation of the Ukrainian group defending the Uglegorsk and Novoluganskoe thermal power plant has become significantly more complicated, since the supply roads are under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces. To the north, the fighting continued in Mednoy Rudi and Pokrovskoye.

At night, it was reported that the Wagner group captured Semigorye, cutting off the supply lines of the group defending Novoluganskoe and the Uglegorsk thermal power plant.

6. Soledar.
The Russian Armed Forces gained a foothold on the outskirts of Belogorovka and Berestovoye. The Artyomovsk-Lisichansk highway is really cut off, and it is almost impossible to use it to supply the Severodonetsk group. The importance of the Artemovsk—Seversk—Lisichansk highway has grown many times, and maintaining Seversk is now vital so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can withdraw from the Lisichansk—Severodonetsk agglomeration.

7. Zolotoye.
The clearing of Kamyshevakha has been completed, and fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Zolotoye.
Battles near Toshkovka and Ustinovka.
In the evening, reports came in about the capture of the village of Vrubovka. The information is confirmed. Vrubovka taken. Gorsko-Zolotaya Grouping of Ukraine in operational encirclement.

8. Izyum.
Battles near Bolshaya Kamyshevakha and Kurulka. The enemy is trying to test the defense of the Russian Armed Forces in the Balakleya area, but the pressure on the flank of the Izyum group is still limited.

9. Zaporozhye.
On the route Kamenskoe-Orekhov-Gulyai-Pole-Velikaya Novoseloka-Ugledar-Novomikhailovka-Maryink, there are no significant changes. Positional fights and artillery attacks in certain areas.

10. Nikolayev.
Positional battles in the directions of Nikolayevy Kherson. The enemy launched a series of attacks, but it was unsuccessful.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to resume the offensive and achieve at least some success within the framework of the tasks set by the political leadership to achieve progress in the direction of Kherson.
Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are accumulating forces in the direction of Nikolayev. The Gauleiter Kim threatens to blow up bridges in Nikolayev in case of threat of loss of the city.

Possible evacuation of Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

In reference to the latest developments, see maps in this blog

https://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/4171714.html





"Yuri Podolyak" - Advance of the Russian Armed Forces: the Armed Forces of Ukraine evacuate Bakhmut

...information came that the Russian units of the "musicians" (Wagner) continue to develop an advance towards Bakhmut, and having occupied the village of Vershina, today they stormed Zaitsevo.

Moreover, such a successful offensive of the Russians was a complete surprise for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (previously they had not advanced here so fast), and at night the inhabitants of the city reported that the Ukrainian forces began to urgently evacuate the city.

I wonder if they will desperately try to hold it, like Severodonetsk. The fact is that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are advancing from the heights, and Bakhmut (Artemovsk) is located in the lowlands and it is extremely inconvenient to defend it …

In general, we continue to observe, it seems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for some more unpleasant surprises here.

Other reports and news

Blockade detachment kills thirty Ukrainian soldiers who wanted to surrender

This is official confirmation of a crime that has been mentioned repeatedly since the beginning of the Russian offensive and that indicates the degree of desperation of the regime in resorting to terror to force its troops to fight.

https://topwar.ru/197719-v-rajone-novomihajlovki-boeviki-nacbata-rasstreljali-podrazdelenie-vsu-pri-popytke-slozhit-oruzhie.html

In Spanish

https://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/threads/tropas-anti-retroceso-ucras-disparan-y-matan-a-32-soldados-ucros-que-estaban-rindiendose-a-los-rusos.1771659/

The failure of the Ukrainian attack on Davidov Brod

https://topwar.ru/197632-rossijskaja-artillerija-presekla-popytku-perepravy-vsu-cherez-ingulec-v-rajone-davydova-broda.html

The Ukrainian command admits that it sends reinforcements without instruction to the front and admits 600 daily casualties, confirming the reports of casualties of the Russian army

https://topwar.ru/197652-ministr-oborony-ukrainy-reznikov-priznal-otpravku-na-donbass-neobuchennyh-soldat.html

Ukraine suffers a thousand casualties per day

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia



About Russian losses

https://antimaydan.info/2022/06/o_poteryah_rossijskih_vojsk_aleksandr_rusin.html

The author agrees with my estimates and with the data published by the Donetsk Republic at the end of my entry of 12/06

In total the losses of Russia and Donbass are less than 10,000 killed and twice as many wounded.

JohninMK wrote:

ALAMO wrote:There is no root source, but the info is from here :

https://t.me/intelslava

It corresponds quite nicely with the other stream of bullshit aired lately in the English-speaking news. They are getting ready the audience for the impact I would say.

Thanks but can't get Telegram here, looks blocked.

in google store? BTW did you try here? https://telegram.org/

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:30,000?

LDNR have IMO 5000-6000 KIA. Probably more wounded, and missing/captured dunno, but probably not a lot as they're fighting on their own territory

Russia and LDNR combined are probably at 10K dead by now. Add double that amount for injured and you are at 30k combined. I don't think that number of missing captured is more than 1-1.5k.

Take the official Russian MOD number and add 10% to it. That's what the casualties are. 10k combined is bullshit. But it does show that insane propaganda serves a purpose. Western propagandists keep saying 40,000. And it makes 10,000 look small after awhile.

Russia has reduced gas supply to Germany via the Nordstream #1 pipeline by 40%, claiming that one of the German Siemens pumps which they sent to Canada for maintenance, has not been returned to them because of sanctions, and another in the pumping station has just exceeded it's maintenance interval, so they switched it off.

Ispan wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:
Thanks for that info. Why do you think Putin and the generals haven't added more in those locations to make it more even?

Here is the source for Slavyansk, also about forces in Donbass I posted a translation of an analyis yesterday , let me find it in English

It's worth reading though I have some nitpicking with it. It explains also your question

https://www.intellinews.com/don-russia-may-not-be-fighting-for-ground-but-for-a-psychological-tipping-point-in-the-donbas-247161/



There are other reasons: as one of my Spanish military readers puts it, the Russian army in Ukraine is just an expeditionary force.

Back in 2014 some analysts though Putin had to take the chance of war then as demographics due to the Soviet Union collapse and fall of the birth rate meant that in coming years Russia would have a decreasing conscript pool.

Putin doesn't want a mobilization, with the low birth rate Russia can't afford to lose young men and neither can afford disruption of the economy.

So the battle is being fought by the Donbass people who have to liberate themselves, expendables like the Chechens, mercenaries like the Wagner that do the dirty job that the army cannot do and are being put now to work, and volunteers like the Cossacks, keeping the use of the regulars to a minimum, because beside avoiding casualties, the armed forces have to be kept in readiness for a war with NATO if the conflict escalates.

So basically Putin is sparing the young and sending to battle those that are expendable or middle age and presumably had children already or are troublemakers that weren't regular army soldier material and wouldn't be breadwinners anyway, like the Wagner.

The Russian army is fine, but is very brittle. Casualties must be avoided if possible, keeping its strength for a fight for national survival.

Russian and Donbass casualties have been high enough already. From the numbers given in lostarmour info for Donetsk they may be around 30 thousand dead, wounded and missing and still no end in sight.

You put way too much stock in this demographics stuff

Young men are expendable when it comes to birthrates, always have been. Young women aren't. But young men make a greater impact on the economy

Regardless all demographics related discussions are only relevant to a long-term discussion

Any war is short-term, it's not going to be decided by demographic outlooks. If it's a total war, like the Ukraine is waging, then it may be decided when their manpower pool runs out, but their birthrates and various trends are irrelevant to that.

For the sort of war Russia is waging however, even the size of the manpower pool is irrelevant (and it would be irrelevant if war with NATO breaks out as well, as nukes will enter the equation). Even if some form of mobilization is declared, it will be only partial and only use a small portion of the total manpower.
What is most relevant is the amount of men under arms in various state security structures; the military, Rosgvardia, police, FSB, FSO, FSIN and other organizations where people are trained with firearms into various security specialties. Add to that the amount of people in private security companies, Wagner, etc... too. Add to that ex-soldiers, officers and police who've participated in conflict zones in their 40s-50s now. Because it's from this pool that fighters will be recruited or enticed into the Ukraine operation. And it is this pool that is actually amongst the largest in the world in absolute terms when it comes to Russia; ahead of even countries with much larger populations such as China and India.

Putin is sparing all those that aren't volunteering. It's strictly a contractor & volunteer operation. The Chechens too are all there on their own accord, they're not being grabbed off the streets; all their fighters are either professionals or volunteers with combat experience (ex-rebels). No-one's expendable. That's the whole point, and it's what basically keeps the war out of sight and out of mind for the Russian population. Especially in the big cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg which have a smaller portion of military men. Hence the war doesn't become too unpopular.
Adding to that yes the economy is a consideration too. The working population is not touched unless of their own accord. With the people who sign contracts being paid well, but typically not being the types to have high-paying jobs already.

And things are being taken nice and slow with a focus on reducing own casualties as much as possible - as it's necessary to preserve as many of these people as possible, and give the inexperienced fighters battle experience without getting them killed. Because yes the threat of the conflict expanding does exist, and even if it doesn't, it can still go on for a long time potentially.

Having said all that - I suspect that expanding the army and rotating some more people in, even if partial mobilization of some nature has to be enacted, would be a safer move. Assuming no peace deal can be brokered in the near-term to Russia's favour.
As the possibility of NATO intervening unofficially as Russia advances would be quite high, and Russia needs to give another 100,000 people battle experience before then just to be on the safe side

That article is trash.

Putin doesn't want a mobilization, with the low birth rate Russia can't afford to lose young men and neither can afford disruption of the economy

Russia's demographics are at European averages. The minute you see the word demographics in writing about Russia , you know it's someone pretending it's the 1990's and hoping nobody notices. The economy has shown to be more than flexible enough for war.

Putin didn't want to mobilize because he just didn't want to do any more than he had to. Nobody really knew how bad the sanctions would hit until they did. It could have been different. What if something unforeseen happened in the economy and you just mobilized? So I don't disagree but I'd declare a partial mobilization now. To speed things up. There's less unknowns. It's not as risky.