Less than in the US and Europe: annual inflation in Russia fell below 3.3%, by Vladimir Tsegoev, Ksenia Chemodanova for Rtrussia. 04.05.2023.
Annual inflation in Russia for the first time since the summer of 2020 slowed to 3.29%. The value turned out to be not only below the authorities' target of 4%, but also less than in the US (5.22%) and the eurozone states (6.9%). The growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services in the Russian Federation is declining after a rush jump last spring. At that time, American and European sanctions led to a rise in the price of a number of products within the country. However, according to experts, the anti-crisis measures of the government and the Central Bank helped to stabilize the situation. As the Russian leadership expects, against the backdrop of further deceleration of inflation, real incomes of citizens should return to growth this year.
The annual inflation rate in Russia for the first time in the past few years fell below the authorities' target of 4%. This is evidenced by the weekly report of the Ministry of Economic Development published on Wednesday, April 5.
According to the department, over the past 12 months, consumer prices for goods and services in the country have increased by an average of 3.29%. The last time such low annual inflation could be observed was in the summer of 2020.
Food prices in Russia rose by an average of 2.33% over the year. The price of cucumbers (by 23.3%), onions (by 16.64%), powdered milk formulas (by 10.69%) and canned meat (by 10.23%) increased the most. At the same time, a number of products, on the contrary, have seriously fallen in price. We are talking, for example, about cabbage (prices decreased by 72.51%), potatoes (-37.9%), carrots (-30.76%), buckwheat (-28.05%), sugar (-25.2 %) and chicken meat (-7.9%).
In turn, the cost of non-food products increased by an average of 0.09%. The most noticeably more expensive cars: Russian - by 1.53%, foreign - by 3.45%. Meanwhile, for example, medicines rose in price by only 1.15%, gasoline - by 0.05%, and building materials fell in price by 8.79%.
In general, inflation in Russia has been continuously slowing down for the eighth week in a row. This is largely due to the high base of last year, says Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development.
“In the spring of 2022, our inflation was significantly higher than now. Let me remind you that at that moment the indicator rose to double-digit values. The price surge was associated with the economic shock caused by large-scale sanctions. Today, due to such a high base last year, we have a significant slowdown in inflation, ”the source explained to RT.
It should be noted that if in February 2022 the growth of consumer prices in Russia amounted to 9.15% in annual terms, then in March the value rose to 16.69%, and in April it reached 17.83% - the maximum level for the last 20 years. The reason was the emotional reaction of the financial market and ordinary citizens to the actions of the West.
Due to a number of economic restrictions by unfriendly countries, the ruble at the beginning of last spring fell to a record low against other currencies. At the same time, the supply of certain types of foreign products to the country stopped, and the Russians began to massively buy food and goods. All this together provoked a rush in prices.
However, already in May, against the backdrop of anti-crisis decisions by the government and the Central Bank, the easing of consumer panic and the stabilization of the situation on the foreign exchange market, inflation dropped to 17.1%. In the future, the indicator continued to decline and, according to the results of the entire 2022, amounted to 11.94%.
“Prices are slowing down not only because of the high base effect, but also due to the measures of the authorities. For example, the Central Bank influences inflation with its monetary policy, managing rates and limiting inflationary expectations. Thanks to the activation of parallel imports and the stimulation of domestic production, after the departure of a number of foreign companies, our consumer market is being filled. A gradual increase in the mass of commodities limits the possibility of increasing prices, ”Vladimir Kovalev, an analyst at TeleTrade, told RT.
According to the assessment of the country's leadership, consumer price growth in Russia will continue to slow down in the near future. At the same time, it is curious that the inflation rate in the country today turned out to be even lower than in those states that initially imposed sanctions against Moscow.
So, for example, according to preliminary estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in March, annual inflation in the United States amounted to 5.22%. At the same time, according to the calculations of the statistical service of the EU, in the eurozone consumer prices over the past 12 months have increased by an average of 6.9%. Moreover, for example, in France and Germany - the largest economies in Europe - the value reached 6.6 and 7.8%, respectively, and in the Baltic countries the figure exceeded 15%.
In favor of income
According to Vladimir Kovalev, consumer behavior of people is also exerting a certain pressure on inflation in Russia. So, lately, citizens have shown a tendency to save money, the specialist noted.
However, according to the analyst, in the future, consumer demand in the country should begin to gradually recover. This, together with the expected increase in budget spending, may lead to some acceleration of inflation in the second half of the year.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank, according to the results of the entire 2023, the growth of consumer prices in annual terms may amount to 5-7%. However, already in 2024, the indicator should again return to the target of 4%, the Central Bank expects.
“These parameters of the overall decline in inflation in general are a significant positive for the Russian economy. A slowdown in price growth helps to reduce uncertainty in the economy and consumption, helps to increase investment and production, improve their efficiency, and also has a positive effect on real incomes of the population and business,” Kovalev noted.
According to Rosstat, in 2022, in the context of increased inflation, the real incomes of Russians decreased by an average of 1%. At the same time, according to President Vladimir Putin, already in 2023, the figure should go into plus.
“This year, we still expect changes for the better... We think that real wages in the country as a whole should grow by about 3-5%, and real disposable incomes of the population - by about 2- 3%. Why am I talking about this? Because our inflation is completely different,” Putin stressed.
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