Russian special military operation in Ukraine #19

flamming_python wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:After Lisichansk falls, what are next targets for Ru forces?

I'd say it's time for Slavyansk w/o any more distractions

First the defensive positions and smaller settlements as well as roads that supply the cities should be blocked or placed under fire control

That was the idea behind popasnaya, Rubizhne, and Izyum,

It wasn't just because Russia wanted some small victories for Putin as the imbeciles of west write

It was in order to choke the agglomeration of VSU and starve them of supplies and material while subjecting them to intense ordinance

Same will apply to Slavyansk, first cut off Barvenkovo to the west,

My guess is we will see a Russia push into Dnipropetrovsk to make way to the west and rear of Slavyansk

From Izyum forces will drive west

Seizing the roads leading to Slavyansk from the west and from the south will be of utmost importance

Once Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are starved and isolated, storm them

Then in Avdeyevka similarly, near Ugledar, cutoff supplies and roads

And then rocket and bomb the defensive positions before storming

With firepower and material superiority , Russia can repeat this process until Donbass is cleansed

But taking Donbass will require as in Lughansk attacks farther west in neighboring regions

So Russia will expand the foothold in Kharkov region, and Dnipropetrovsk region

To make way to the rear of Hohol defenses and not storm them head on/directly

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Once lisichansk falls, they will move 20 BTG towards Kharkov and Izyum, and mass an attack there

They will leave the positions before Bakhmut with around 7 BTG as Kharkov is now,

Since the importance of maintaining the pressure in the Lughansk area is not that high anymore

Now 20 BTG should push west and south of Slavyansk creating a boiler similar to Severodonetsk

And leaving a corridor to Avedyevka for Kramatorsk hohols to retreat to, but blocking off their escape west

The red estuary, krasny liman , similarly will be the sight of massing of Russian forces

This is what I believe will happen

Repositioning of the mass of Russian battalions in Lughansk to the north sector

And attacks west towards barvenkovo, and further into Kharkov and Dnipro directions

For a 20 km stretch Russia is deploying 9 Battalion Tactical Group (BTG). Classic example - Belogorovka.

8 BTGr. + 1 BTGr to attack and at least one in reserve, what if the front fails somewhere. That is, a minimum of 10 BTG only to complete the ring, assuming the resistance is weak. Of course these BTGs are backed up by LNR and DNR troops. A lot of artillery shelling on stationary positions makes a massive assault unnecessary. Russia can attack in small groups

The shortage of units is affecting Russia's defensive strategy. For example BMPs, AFVs are not safe from heavy machine gun fire or ATGMs. As opposed to offense, defending in small group,  isn't working.

RTN wrote:For a 20 km stretch Russia is deploying 9 Battalion Tactical Group (BTG). Classic example - Belogorovka.

8 BTGr. + 1 BTGr to attack and at least one in reserve, what if the front fails somewhere. That is, a minimum of 10 BTG only to complete the ring, assuming the resistance is weak. Of course these BTGs are backed up by LNR and DNR troops. A lot of artillery shelling on stationary positions makes a massive assault unnecessary. Russia can attack in small groups

The shortage of units is affecting Russia's defensive strategy. For example BMPs, AFVs are not safe from heavy machine gun fire or ATGMs. As opposed to offense, defending in small group,  isn't working.

That much is clear, but again, holding onto symbolic positions near Kharkov is not the mission as of now

It is to clear the VSU defensive agglomeration In Northern donetsk, of slavyansk, and Kramatorsk

To get to the rear of the avdeyevka fortified area

Once those areas are clear

The BTGs can be dispersed and used liberally

Ukrainians defenses after Donetsk are scattered and thinned out

Keeping 20 BTG near Lisichansk and Zolotoye and Severodonetsk made sense ,

But now that this group is gone, you don't need so many BTG for Bakhmut or Seversk

The chechens and militias can take those areas with fire support

The mass of BTG is needed west of Izyum to expand the foothold in the southern Kharkov region and Southern Dnipro

A corridor for the last grouping of VSU in donetsk should be created , as in Lisichansk, where they can exit but only under full scale bombardment

I share the previous question, once eastern Ukraine is under complete Russian rule, what will be next? reinforce positions and plan a full invasion?

Here the map shows clearly , the heavy fire missions are occurring precisely in Barvenkovo

A major offensive to take this settlement will be launched, as in Rubizhne, to the south west of Izyum and Dolina

Then other operations taking smaller settlements south of Barvenkovo to cutoff exit of Slavyansk defenders , such as Velikaya Kamyshevakha

Obviously this will take place as the Lisichansk operation finishes

Bakhmut and Seversk will collapse as they will lose the depth that lisichansk provided them

The belogorovka area is important, but barvenkovo and Great Kamyshevakha is even greater to cutoff

ArgentinaGuard wrote:
I share the previous question, once eastern Ukraine is under complete Russian rule, what will be next? reinforce positions and plan a full invasion?

First donetsk must fall

Then after this everything will happen quickly

It will be necessary to face provocations from NATO

But after the fall of Donetsk, the rest of Ukraine will be taken very quickly

Potentially at this point we will face the prospect of a fight with Poland ,

So units in Belarus should be prepared to enter Lvov

But again, this scenario will be triggered after the fall of Donetsk

Russia will push into Dnipro, Kharkov, and Nikolayev, even Odessa

And with this NATO will face a choice, to enter and assist Poland in capturing Halychyna (Galicia)

And face Russia

Then bets are off, Russia will expand the fighting to Suwalki and 1st GTA new objective could be to demilitarize everything to the Vistula River

But we are still far from this scenario, but we are assured NATO has something in works

Hohols are now becoming more creative with their fake stories. Recently Ukronazi propagandist tried to use a picture of American porn star and model Billy Herrington, as a “Russian casualty” in Donbass. Not only they claimed he is a casualty, but they also made a whole story about how he was killed while trying to save a tank crewman after his tank was destroyed.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
First donetsk must fall

Then after this everything will happen quickly

It will be necessary to face provocations from NATO

But after the fall of Donetsk, the rest of Ukraine will be taken very quickly

Potentially at this point we will face the prospect of a fight with Poland ,

So units in Belarus should be prepared to enter Lvov

But again, this scenario will be triggered after the fall of Donetsk

Russia will push into Dnipro, Kharkov, and Nikolayev, even Odessa

And with this NATO will face a choice, to enter and assist Poland in capturing Halychyna (Galicia)

And face Russia

Then bets are off, Russia will expand the fighting to Suwalki and 1st GTA new objective could be to demilitarize everything to the Vistula River

But we are still far from this scenario, but we are assured NATO has something in works

Easy there tiger. Step by step. Kharkov will not be easy target unless Ukrainians decide to retreat. Which doesn't look like the case atm. Also Zaporozhye and, more importantly, Dnepropetrovsk will be even harder. Dnepropetrovsk is run by Kolomoisky and his clan and they will fight tooth and nail to prevent it.

Problem is that in main pro-Russian cities in Ukraine, such as Kharkov and Odessa, many suporters of Russia were killed or purged in other ways. Many pro-Russian people moved out from Kharkov ( I've seen numbers upward of 50k since 2014). Problem of Kharkov per se, is that Ukrainian gov is aware of that and they invested a lot of money to support building up Kharkov as a stronghold of nationalists, akin to Mariopol. It didn't help that Biletsky is from there and he recruited a lot of scum. This is why Marchenko, ex head of Aidar batallion, was appointed as a head of Odessa oblast after the war started. Mayor of Odessa, Trukhanov, remains primary candidate to switch sides. Taking every big city by force will take much longer time and will carry huge loss in lives and property.

LGBTQ rally in Warsaw in support of Nazi AZOV battalion. At first I was little bit surprised to see this. What with these Neo-Nazi loving liberal brainless zombies? Maybe it's because AZOVs are notorious for being sexual perverts & practice degeneracy just like them. These same folks will quick to call you a nazi if you don't call them by their pronouns.

The Russian response to the ban on transit to Kaliningrad will be very tough, they are able to "cut off the oxygen" to our Baltic neighbors

Medvedev

Do it

Backman wrote:The Russian response to the ban on transit to Kaliningrad will be very tough, they are able to "cut off the oxygen" to our Baltic neighbors

Medvedev

Do it

What are they going to do?

caveat emptor wrote:Problem is that in main pro-Russian cities in Ukraine, such as Kharkov and Odessa, many suporters of Russia were killed or purged in other ways. Many pro-Russian people moved out from Kharkov ( I've seen numbers upward of 50k since 2014). Problem of Kharkov per se, is that Ukrainian gov is aware of that and they invested a lot of money to support building up Kharkov as a stronghold of nationalists, akin to Mariopol. It didn't help that Biletsky is from there and he recruited a lot of scum. This is why Marchenko, ex head of Aidar batallion, was appointed as a head of Odessa oblast after the war started. Mayor of Odessa, Trukhanov, remains primary candidate to switch sides. Taking every big city by force will take much longer time and will carry huge loss in lives and property.

The population centers won't be the main targets, at least not yet

The Russian army will move to all the areas that are loosely defended

So when I say Kharkov, I don't mean the city, I mean the region itself

So all the small settlements and swathes of land will be important to take before storming Kharkov

The same approach to Donetsk

And all major population centers

Rybar has a POW update. Over 15,000 now, with more coming in. The discrepancy with some of the "official" Russian figures that seem too low is because Russia counts the POWs in their hands and in the LDPR's hands separately.



https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1541441899839557632

Arkhangelsk:

What are Russians going to do with fortified urban areas like Kharkov?

The same as with Mariupol. If neccessary.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/newsbits-on-ukraine-lysichansk-cauldron-civilian-damage-reserve-troops-russian-default.html#more


Orc head is severly deformated.

Elenskiy has odered most if not all reserves from Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolaev to the Donbass. Maybe he is a russian agent after all.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Arkhangelsk:

What are Russians going to do with fortified urban areas like Kharkov?

Those areas will be the last to be taken

For example, if you look at Lughansk, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk were the last population centers to fall

The settlements and roads were first

So in Kharkov, the same, small settlements and roads will be blocked and taken, and the storm will come after

Zelensky issued a directive June 25th, that all reserves from Nikolayev, Odessa, and Kharkov be transferred to the Lisichansk fortified area

This is desperation

Because the gate to central Ukraine is coming unhinged from the portal

When Slavyansk and Kramatorsk fall, the entire central Ukraine will be open for the taking

You will see regions fall very quickly , as opposed to the methodical grinding we have become used to seeing

Why?

Because noone will be left to defend these areas

NATO and Ukraine placed their bet in holding LDNR until the winter

Noone could imagine the demilitarization process would be so fast

Sprut-B wrote:

Why are you surprised if you know that the Ukrainian neo-Nazis are homosexuals and liberals financed by international Zionism. Ukrainian neo-Nazis want to live like Western Europe. It's that friend. They want to be gay and hip like their German friends.

I tell you: in Buenos Aires there was a demonstration of Ukrainians against Russia. All young liberals who take advantage of the fact that this country is kidnapped. Of course, I passed with my car doing the Z. The sons of bitches couldn't believe it.

Sprut-B wrote:LGBTQ rally in Warsaw in support of Nazi AZOV battalion. At first I was little bit surprised to see this. What with these Neo-Nazi loving liberal brainless zombies? Maybe it's because AZOVs are notorious for being sexual perverts & practice degeneracy just like them. These same folks will quick to call you a nazi if you don't call them by their pronouns.

I will tell you why.

Warsaw is a major center of the ruling German-Ukrainian mafia.


Lots of people on the photographs are in reality Germans and Ukrainians living in Poland.



https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/over-100000-slaughtered-with-axes-pitchforks-scythes-and-knives-the-wolyn-massacre-started-76-years-ago-today-and-lasted-for-two-years-6714


http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


Now you know.

All those people should be re-educated in Chechnya by Ramzam's tigers.

The Lisichansk cauldron is almost sealed

8km between the neck of the cauldron

Those who flee are subjected to deadly grad strikes

The situation for VSU is difficult as the entire front collapses



Of course slavyansk and kramatorsk are the new objectives, but as I stated , they will go around the cities from west and east

8km means the Allied troops can use Kornets now to destroy enemy troops/vehicles.