Russian special military operation in Ukraine #19

Not a goodwill gesture. Ukrainian have artillery targeting them massively from the shores. They can't hold that island anymore.

They should have gone long time ago. It is un undefendable position. Generals that kept sending troops there should think about retiring. They suck big time.

Isos wrote:Not a goodwill gesture. Ukrainian have artillery targeting them massively from the shores. They can't hold that island anymore.

They should have gone long time ago. It is un undefendable position. Generals that kept sending troops there should think about retiring. They suck big time.

That will be Osipov. Some people asked for his head after Moskva sank.
Interpreting this as a "goodwill gesture" is a BS to begin with.
It was a sensible thing to do and should be advertised as such (ensuring wellbeing of your soldiers).

One other option if Russians want to actually hold the island is air campaign, more sorties on top of it, swatting any incomng UAV's. Might also help dealing with shore based artillery.

It is however a question of why Russians appear to not doing such, considering Crimea have several squadrons of fighters, dispatching some for CAP or maybe "artillery hunter killer".

Stealthflanker wrote:One other option if Russians want to actually hold the island is air campaign, more sorties on top of it, swatting any incomng UAV's. Might also help dealing with shore based artillery.

It is however a question of why Russians appear to not doing such, considering Crimea have several squadrons of fighters, dispatching some for CAP or maybe "artillery hunter killer".

You have to come close to the coast and Ukrainians are provided with real time radar picture from nearby NATO planes and bases.
As soon as, Ukrainians brought Caesars, M777, HIMARS and Tochkas, smart thing was to evacuate island.
Island is only 17 hectares in surface. Even one HIMARS or Tochka that go through would put a lot of damage. There's nowhere to hide.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/no-nato-will-not-get-ready-for-war.html#more
Includes some info about the SMO.

Proplem with that island is that you can´t move. That´s the strong side of any mobile AD system. Without it you could bring back the S-125 system.

Will be fun to watch if the Nazis try to bring in troops. Is the regime ready to loose another bunch of helicopters, drones and some boats?

Until now the Kiev regime and his masters in the west claimed that the evil Russians on that island blocked the port of Odessa = no grain export = hungry children in the 3rd world = massive famine. Lets wait for the new excuse.

The island is of no consequence, for now. The spin by Russia's PR was terrible, as usual, and deserved to be laughed at, by everyone. Grain exports from Ukraine should not occur.... neither for the West looking for food pricing relief nor for the Kiev regime looking for revenue lifelines.... no matter how insignificant. Of course the Russians are banking on the fact that the Odessa shores has been mined to hell and back so they know there isn't going to be any consistent shipping activity around that area any time soon (unless they do the Russians a favor by de-mining said shores  ). The island is no mans land, provided Russia enforces it that way, and doesn't allow its reoccupation, temporary or otherwise.

What matters is that overtures of this nature don't become a trend and the SMO expands beyond the Donbass to all the strategic areas in Ukraine still uncovered. You can interpret the signals as mixed and isolated or as overtures towards negotiations (now that would be horrible). Both interpretations, as it stands at the moment, are correct. The dimwits here can try to fake it, but they fear the second interpretation deep down with horror - as they should.

Hole wrote:https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/no-nato-will-not-get-ready-for-war.html#more
Includes some info about the SMO.

Proplem with that island is that you can´t move. That´s the strong side of any mobile AD system. Without it you could bring back the S-125 system.

Will be fun to watch if the Nazis try to bring in troops. Is the regime ready to loose another bunch of helicopters, drones and some boats?

Until now the Kiev regime and his masters in the west claimed that the evil Russians on that island blocked the port of Odessa = no grain export = hungry children in the 3rd world = massive famine. Lets wait for the new excuse.

Russia left the island earlier in the year as well, remember?

End result was Ukraine attempted a large operation to place men on the island and they got smoked. It was the same incident that people claimed it was a Russian helicopter that got hit as well. Russia than went back onto the Island again which was a bad idea.

Only thing I would assume is why they went on that Island was to prevent Romania from taking it? I mean, Ukraine could be asking US or Romania to just take it and place whatever dummy forces there to be used as a target for Russians to attempt to start a conflict. I am not sure though on that, just an assumption.

kvs wrote:People are making a big mistake if they measure Russian progress by the current grind through the Donbass fortified districts.
You cannot extrapolate to the rest of Ukraine the special characteristics of the bunkers and trenches constructed by the Kiev
regime after 2015.   Another show stopper detail is that the best regime forces are concentrated in the Donbass special
district.   Once that "bastion" falls, it is game over for the Kiev regime.   Russia will be able to roll over Odessa and even central
Ukraine at a pace not seen from the initial stages of the invasion/operation.  

I agree with you, it's not a question of capability and never was

But of political will

Listening to the military only works if you have competent people running it

The plus side is shoigu had enough experience at emercom, his expertise is spotting negligence, corruption, and overall bullshit

So he can see an incompetent even if his primary experience is not military

That is the good thing and main role of a guy like Shoigu

Gerasimov is competent and so are the district commanders

I agree, once the Donbass is cleared, 150,000 men is enough to roll over Kharkov and Donbass

Considering the Ukrainian army is done

The only thing defending those cities are territorial defense units, and those guys are worse than LDNR militia

Hell the militia leaders learned a lot from this cooperation with South and West command

So the capability is there

All that is required, is the will after Donbass, to continue with the operation

If Zmeiny was a tactical consideration and not just "good will " there is still hope

Putin, making a fool of Johnson and the British

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/putin-reminds-johnson-of-margaret-thatcher-after-woman-remarks-58427

Arkanghelsk wrote:

kvs wrote:People are making a big mistake if they measure Russian progress by the current grind through the Donbass fortified districts.
You cannot extrapolate to the rest of Ukraine the special characteristics of the bunkers and trenches constructed by the Kiev
regime after 2015.   Another show stopper detail is that the best regime forces are concentrated in the Donbass special
district.   Once that "bastion" falls, it is game over for the Kiev regime.   Russia will be able to roll over Odessa and even central
Ukraine at a pace not seen from the initial stages of the invasion/operation.  

I agree with you,  it's not a question of capability and never was

But of political will

Listening to the military only works if you have competent people running it

The plus side is shoigu had enough experience at emercom, his expertise is spotting negligence, corruption, and overall bullshit

So he can see an incompetent even if his primary experience is not military

That is the good thing and main role of a guy like Shoigu

Gerasimov is competent and so are the district commanders

I agree, once the Donbass is cleared, 150,000 men is enough to roll over Kharkov and Donbass

Considering the Ukrainian army is done

The only thing defending those cities are territorial defense units, and those guys are worse than LDNR militia

Hell the militia leaders learned a lot from this cooperation with South and West command

So the capability is there

All that is required, is the will after Donbass,  to continue with the operation

If Zmeiny was a tactical consideration and not just "good will " there is still hope

What is the composition now between Russian force, LDNR forces, Wagner Mercs and volunteers? My understanding is that Russian forces is still less than 100,0000 in Ukraine (something like 70K) and the rest make up of the other groups with LDNR forces being about 50K in theory.

sepheronx wrote:

What is the composition now between Russian force, LDNR forces, Wagner Mercs and volunteers?  My understanding is that Russian forces is still less than 100,0000 in Ukraine (something like 70K) and the rest make up of the other groups with LDNR forces being about 50K in theory.

Depends what sources you look at

For example in Kharkov there are around 10 BTG ~ roughly about 8000 men

In North donbass/ lughansk around 54 BTG ~ roughly 42k men

From Gorlovka to Zaporizhia, about 22 BTG ~ 17,600 men

And finally in kherson/ nikolayev ~ about 13 BTG or 10,500 men

So in all assuming each BTG is around 600 to 800 men

We can place on the high end (using 800) that on the frontline there is close to

60-80,000 men

In 2nd echelon there are another 30k to 40k men

And these numbers include support units

So 120k in total using high end numbers of 800 men per battalion, and also assuming that includes logistical support

And counting 2nd echelon units as part of the entire SMO

Actual combat troops are about 60k to 80k men though

So it is a good number

Once donbass is rolled up, the only thing between these guys and the cities are tereborona

So it should be quick

I think coming off Snake Island was a smart move at the right time. Russia:

- used it to eliminate a Ukrainian SF group that could have been dangerous elsewhere
- used it to eliminate a lot of Ukrainian drones, especially TB-2, as well as other air and ground assets
- allowed Ukrainian PR to build it up as an impediment to shipping grain
- established that in military terms, regardless of how attractive it might superficially appear, it was not worth worth it.

If Russia is only part way through its objectives the last thing it wants is a premature peace attempt. By giving, albeit on a plate, Ukraine a PR opportunity to bolster the country's and supporters confidence it reduced that risk.

Russia also stuffs Ukraine and their excuse for not shipping grain.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
Once donbass is rolled up, the only thing between these guys and the cities are tereborona

So it should be quick

Maybe Moscow just wants to keep moving slowly on a low casualty strategy. No need to show NATO how quick it could move.

Russia has a k/d ratio close to 1 Russian per 10 Ukrainians, and is advancing wherever she wants.

The rest is fluff. It's actually been like this for months, and the supposedly "slow advance" is due these considerations, the ones that make them lose so much fewer people.

Good twitter thread:
https://mobile.twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1541780685937332224

This is why Ukraine now suffers hundreds of KIAs every day.

And why, for months, the Russians have suffered very few casualties – at least a 1 to 10 ratio. Probably much lower.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has a k/d ratio close to 1 Russian per 10 Ukrainians, and is advancing wherever she wants.

The rest is fluff. It's actually been like this for months, and the supposedly "slow advance" is due these considerations, the ones that make them lose so much fewer people.

More like 1 to 20

Using 80k of VSU to 4k for Russia

Not including militia

Russia "retreated" from around Kharkov too. Everybody and his dog knows more about the plans of the Russian general staff
than the general staff itself. The island became an obsession for Elensky. He has not succeeded in his theater just yet
and I expect Russia to hit at any Kiev attempt to stage theater over the capture of the island.

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has a k/d ratio close to 1 Russian per 10 Ukrainians, and is advancing wherever she wants.

The rest is fluff. It's actually been like this for months, and the supposedly "slow advance" is due these considerations, the ones that make them lose so much fewer people.

More like 1 to 20

Using 80k of VSU to 4k for Russia

Not including militia

Funny thing is that I mentioned this months ago, on this very forum. Russian losses are miniscule, because of better tactics, superiority in air and artillery support, and less political considerations.

Zelensky desperately wants political and social media victories, to present to his western backers, so Zelensky lies to everyone everywhere, and Ukrainians were told to hold out and die en masse in Mariupol, without realistic backup, in Severeodonetsk, with backup (but this backup signed a death warranty once they got the order and followed it) etc.

Now, how many have died or been taken prisoner in the Lysychansk salient? Another couple of thousands.

Russia's losses are, and have been, tiny in comparison.

F me, RU and LDNR have nearly 20k UA POWs, Kiev has less than 1k. That ought to indicate something regarding how things look out there (and if that number seems low, consider UA warcrimes, of course, they went ISIS on some POWs earlier on).

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Putin, making a fool of Johnson and the British

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/putin-reminds-johnson-of-margaret-thatcher-after-woman-remarks-58427

Which isn´t that difficult.

I mean sure what Boris said was stupid but Putin's response wasn't any better, He worded it like Thatcher started the war when it was Argentina who seized the islands prompting the British response.

I am sure some fanboy will try to react with one of two points.

1. The British stole those lands from Agrentina first!

Answer: Yeah they seized it via military conquest but Russia has also seized lands via Military conquest coughvladivostokcough and I don't imagine you'd support russia handing it over to China so that solves that.

2. The people wanted to rejoin their homeland!

Answer: Nope the brit held a vote where if the majority wanted to, they would hand the lands over to Argentina but the Majority choose to stay with the UK coughcrimeacough

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I mean sure what Boris said was stupid but Putin's response wasn't any better, He worded it like Thatcher started the war when it was Argentina who seized the islands prompting the British response.

I am sure some fanboy will try to react with one of two points.

1. The British stole those lands from Agrentina first!

Answer: Yeah they seized it via military conquest but Russia has also seized lands via Military conquest coughvladivostokcough and I don't imagine you'd support russia handing it over to China so that solves that.

2. The people wanted to rejoin their homeland!

Answer: Nope the brit held a vote where if the majority wanted to, they would hand the lands over to Argentina but the Majority choose to stay with the UK coughcrimeacough

It was a special military operation

The British annexed it

Turkey to Conduct Operation 'Understandable' to International Community in Syria, Erdogan Says

I cannot wait until kurds roast kebab

Fucking doner kebab served for all, the new Syrian dish

Doner kebabed medium rare by javelin, Stinger, and NLAW, maybe Cesar SPG too

Arkanghelsk wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I mean sure what Boris said was stupid but Putin's response wasn't any better, He worded it like Thatcher started the war when it was Argentina who seized the islands prompting the British response.

I am sure some fanboy will try to react with one of two points.

1. The British stole those lands from Agrentina first!

Answer: Yeah they seized it via military conquest but Russia has also seized lands via Military conquest coughvladivostokcough and I don't imagine you'd support russia handing it over to China so that solves that.

2. The people wanted to rejoin their homeland!

Answer: Nope the brit held a vote where if the majority wanted to, they would hand the lands over to Argentina but the Majority choose to stay with the UK coughcrimeacough

It was a special military operation

The British annexed it

I mean they annexed back in 1833....point stands Russia annexed Valdi, no different.

I also wasn't talking about the current war, My statement on crimea was they voted to join Russia so if you support that vote, then you have to respect the people who voted to stay with the UK also.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Turkey to Conduct Operation 'Understandable' to International Community in Syria, Erdogan Says

I cannot wait until kurds roast kebab

Fucking doner kebab served for all, the new Syrian dish

Doner kebabed medium rare by javelin,  Stinger, and NLAW, maybe Cesar SPG too

Ah the turks are calling the russian bluff are they, They know Russia won't directly attack them and with their ongoing war in Ukraine unlikely they can deliver the mass amount of weapons that would be needed to other group to hold te turks back.

Turkey choose the perfect time.