Russian special military operation in Ukraine #19

caveat emptor wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

No it won't happen

Look , they left Kiev, Zmeiny, and listen to Putin and Peskov

We are leaving Ukraine when this is finished, except LDNR

In the end, it proves that intervention was never on the cards, nor the plan

We never had the strength to change anything in Ukraine - the population is so indoctrinated and zombified , nothing would change killing zelensky and if we occupied it, we'd only **** ourselves up

We cannot exert influence in this area

We could have destroyed it all and left like USA does

But it wouldn't change a thing -

The focus is NSTC trade with Eurasia, Brics, and orientation to South

Ukraine is a fluke of history

After so much blood spilled, and break with the west and sanctions, to leave like that wouldn't amount to much more than defeat. They, at least have to keep what they took. Why give out passports to people of Zaporozhie and Kherson and talk about referendum? Concern is that they didn't do same in parts of Kharkov oblast they took over. Returning those parts to Ukraine will further alienate pro-Russian population in the country. Obviously, to take city of Kharkov and other parts of the South and East, they will need more soldiers on the ground.

Bruh you crazy, the current amount of russians forces are totally enough to take Khakrov, Odessa and Miko, (sarcasm it ain't but you know what the peeps here say)

Arrow wrote:

It will be difficult without universal mobilization

and Putin is clear that isn't happening

caveat emptor wrote:
After so much blood spilled, and break with the west and sanctions, to leave like that wouldn't amount to much more than defeat. They, at least have to keep what they took. Why give out passports to people of Zaporozhie and Kherson and talk about referendum? Concern is that they didn't do same in parts of Kharkov oblast they took over. Returning those parts to Ukraine will further alienate pro-Russian population in the country. Obviously, to take city of Kharkov and other parts of the South and East, they will need more soldiers on the ground.

I disagree, the break with the west although looks like a surprise

Due to foreign reserves being left there, and sanctions

Was not an unintended consequence

The rupture had to happen this way, cutting off abramovich and western oligarchs was needed to sovereignize Russia

I don't see it as a total defeat

-------

As for mobilization it's a no go

- and as far as Kharkov and Odessa , Dnipro, Nikolayev

Let's first see what happens after donbass

Then conclusions can be drawn

The more interesting part of all this, is the BRICS and NTSC maneuvers occurring now

Arrow wrote:

It will be difficult without universal mobilization

I don't understand why people see everything in binary outcomes. They don't have to call for general mobilization. Just call up people that served in the last 5-10 years or so and start using conscripts for tasks in the rear. Getting another 150k people should be enough.

caveat emptor wrote:Whole propaganda wing of Ru MoD needs to be purged. Bunch of idiots work there. Better put in charge somebody competent instead of idiots that work there now.

Is funny and great to see Putin's fanboys now saying exactly the same things , i have been saying since first week of the war , but critisized by it ,after observing Russian convoys being sent alone without airforce close air support , after seeing how they send tanks to ambush with anti tank weapons and zero combined forces operations from Russian side. After seeing how Russian military using world war 1 super SLOWWW mediocre tactics of wanting to defeat ukraine army 99% using unguided scorch earth tactics,  After seeing how retarded was the way Russian military was trying to target bomb Ukie army in trenches..  You see the evidence of the thousands of artillery misses in the near those trenches...
and to make things more insulting , Ukraine being far more effective with drones than Russia , being very effective with their turkish strike drones , flying freely above russian positions .  

Russia brute force outdated approach to the conflict , was the reason why so many  thousands losses in the russian military . Completely inefficient close air support to this date, if ukraine artillery spot russian positions ,they are as good as dead... Because the russian airforce is not targeting at all ukraine artillery ,which could have wiped entire zones of them if Russia had true close air support, since there the airspace of ukraine is heavily contested . Ukraine artillery is destroyed by the use of other artillery with ground troops or satellite providing coordinates .  

The Russian airforce is the biggest colossal failure in this entire war , highly incompetent , if we compare it with israel airforce performance. Zelensky captured dozens of pilots , from planes that only use 1 pilot. Then later do prisoner swap just today.  Israel have not lost a single pilot in 8 years bombing 2,000 times in syria.  Russia needs to completely change ,modernize its airforce and significantly boost the quality of their tactics and inventory of their drones.


-Inneficient air support.
-inconsistent use of strike drones.
-Highly inefficient use of their airforce..  If they had a capable airforce , those ukraine soldiers
in those trenches would have been smashed in the first week of war , not allowed to shell donbass,
they can only shell ,when Russia shows weaknes with precision strikes .
-Extremely poor use combined arms operations.
-UKRAINE Artillery CAN"T BE USED , if there are planes or strike drones with precision bombs flying above them.

Russian mediocre use of its airforce is by far the sole reason ,Why Russia have to drag their feet in ukraine , moving 10x times slower ,if not 50x times , of what it would be , if they only had True Air domination of the airspace.  AFter 120 days , russia airforce can't fly over the airspace of kharkiv,a city right next to its country borders. if this is not embarrassing then no idea what is.

Now Putin is claiming are "in good will" giving up snake island.

yeah right,, only fan boys will eat that propaganda shit.. They were defending that island with everything they had and now they are giving up on it..  This is not "good will" at all , but they were forced to abandon it..  Strategic defeat.. is the name.

Reality is , when Russia takes the decision to take Odessa , they will need to retake that island again , to provide a forward base to support their navy and use artillery on odessa from the black sea . So what this decision shows is that Russian military will not invade odessa anytime soon , in the next months if ever. Good luck with NATO to show good will with this.  

How hard is to send a pair of Su-25 flying low and fast , the first one scout the fucking terrain ,search for artillery or airdefenses ,of large ukraine armor concentration ,then the second one  drop a drone right above the position to bomb, then in less than 10 seconds artillery to destroy with precision the targets?   Is irrelevant if the drone will be shot down.. what matters is who kill more first , to take down military hardware before the drone is taken down..

I consider insulting that Russian airforce still today use unguided shitty rockets ,fired randomly from far away distances aiming for lucky shots, against ukraine . Just bomb the hell of those artillery with a precision bomb idiots. Russia needs tv-guided glide missiles to strike at important targets with ultra precision ,  operated by  pilots . If they time things right , it will be impossible for ukraine to use their air defenses if russian airforce was not lead by idiots.

Putin's fanboys is the worse things in this forum , is what ruins any realistic discussion of Russian army tactics and weakness ,whenever they show them.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

If the russians do plan to seize odessa, I doubt that will come before Khakrov.

Odessa would be a long long march.

Also Snake Island wasn't defendable at all, you need to control the coastline to properly defend it.

The Ukrs are basically a spent force despite all the promised weapons from the West. Their "best" forces are facing imminent defeat in the Donbass.
The Volksturm and the mercenaries won't be able to stop the Russians advance and it will be swift - IF and WHEN they decide to take the south.
I won't be too surprised to see the long promised (but dangerous) naval infantry assault combined with air assault units securing and holding key positions in the south until reinforcements arrive. They can even re-take Snake Island f they want to but that is not vital in this scenario.

I don't see russia leaving the areas it has captured, in the end that's a major win for the west. Then you are betraying all those civilians who trusted you and if I was them would never trust the russians again.

It would be a treasonous level mistake to just leave those areas.

In the end with my own personal experience, there are public statements that are just BS and the real truths are hidden, etc Russia might say it will pull back but in reality has no intention to.

Thats just how the game works

Arkanghelsk wrote:
I disagree, the break with the west although looks like a surprise

Due to foreign reserves being left there, and sanctions

Was not an unintended consequence

The rupture had to happen this way, cutting off abramovich and western oligarchs was needed to sovereignize Russia

I don't see it as a total defeat.

Problem i have with Russian politics and society, in general, is that it is not proactive.
Case in hand Chubais. I read now that thry started "investigations" of his foreign holdings and whatnot. Well, no shit Sherlock. Like nobody knew that guy was a thief since beginning of '90s. Still, that didn't stop him from holding high positions in the government. Last one in Rusnano, where he managed to **** up or slow down development of good part of electronics industry. But, since he was holding official line that didn't prevent him from continuing the plunder. Now that he left the country, they remembered to investigate him. You're Russian and, i presume, live there, so you will know more about that. And he isn't the only one, i can assure you.

Okay Vann go lead the Russian airforce, I'll give them about 3 weeks before all their aircraft are shot down with your dumbass tactics.

I mean this go tell the russians command where all the Buks are hidden, how to take them all out in a matter of days and what not.

Your just spreading propaganda at this point really ignorant and dumbass also.

Ukraine still has many Mobile AA left that make such operations pretty much dumb, and it would take years to flush them out in an area like Ukraine.

But keep talking acting like you understand when your a moronic armchair general, who doesn't know whats even going on lol. Your BS about SAA air defense is a prime example, your a liar dude. A half assed sad excuse liar.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I don't see russia leaving the areas it has captured, in the end that's a major win for the west. Then you are betraying all those civilians who trusted you and if I was them would never trust the russians again.

It would be a treasonous level mistake to just leave those areas.

In the end with my own personal experience, there are public statements that are just BS and the real truths are hidden, etc Russia might say it will pull back but in reality has no intention to.

Thats just how the game works

I don't think they'll leave all the areas. Just my suspicion is about Kharkov region they took so far. I hope thry end up taking whole Kharkov, as many people there paid dearly for events from 2014. It is not widely publicized that tens of thousands of people left Kharkov after 2014.

caveat emptor wrote:
I don't understand why people see everything in binary outcomes. They don't have to call for general mobilization. Just call up people that served in the last 5-10 years or so and start using conscripts for tasks in the rear. Getting another 150k people should be enough.

Why would mobilization help? You want to do something now when the much better outcome is to rub off slowly everything they have and clear the rear and rebuild, give people stability and show them that they are safer with Russia. Hold referendum and and have them special tax reliefs for next 2-3 years. This will all create an contagious atmosphere and more people will want to join. Create civil Denazification structures who will hunt down Nazis amongst the unarmed population and get aggitators to FSB. I am totally on PD's side with this strategy. Keep pounding them, who wants to fight shall get the chance while the rest is invited to join our side peacefully.

300 to 1000 kills and wounded a day, sounds like just a numbers game which it is. Why mobilize and lose many more people and lose military potential against NATO? That is exactly what NATO wants. Large formations of main capacity of RF to just somehow pound them. Even if we all believe that Russia would immidiately nuke the West, I highly doubt it and it is very unrealistic even if US would barrage cruise missiles on Kokaina against our guys. Putin is great, but he never had gave the vipe to be hard liner or act in this proportions. Always reactionary and always with a much weaker punch than Russia could deal.

Embargo of natural resources to the West would already be a huge hit on their economies and if BRICS did that combined the entire West would degrade within 10 years to the 20th century. I remind you all BRICS countries plus Kazakhstan are holding monopoly on heavy and light metals which are necessary for Europes industry.

I tell you, keep fucking them, keep reconstruction and trials of their scum, keep liberation of our lands from these western assets and we will have a scenario of 130.000 forces gaining the biggest land mass in history.

Many Russians call themselves Orda now. They want it so they get it and we get toilets and nutella and then we can develope technologies and go to space, because without Nutella we can't.

Jokes aside, I think this year Kharkov and next year Odessa. Let us see, time is relative but a win is certain.

caveat emptor wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I don't see russia leaving the areas it has captured, in the end that's a major win for the west. Then you are betraying all those civilians who trusted you and if I was them would never trust the russians again.

It would be a treasonous level mistake to just leave those areas.

In the end with my own personal experience, there are public statements that are just BS and the real truths are hidden, etc Russia might say it will pull back but in reality has no intention to.

Thats just how the game works

I don't think they'll leave all the areas. Just my suspicion is about Kharkov region they took so far. I hope thry end up taking whole Kharkov, as many people there paid dearly for events from 2014. It is not widely publicized that tens of thousands of people left Kharkov after 2014.

They should take Khakrov, Odessa is the one where I am iffy on, I frankly doubt they will commit for that.

Seig how's that army life going bro? Talk about fake ass astroturfer... always picking on Vann for the low hanging fruits... shameless.

Vann7 wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Whole propaganda wing of Ru MoD needs to be purged. Bunch of idiots work there. Better put in charge somebody competent instead of idiots that work there now.

Is funny and great to see Putin's fanboys now ...

You should learn to read before commenting.

Werewolf wrote:

Why would mobilization help? You want to do something now when the much better outcome is to rub off slowly everything they have and clear the rear and rebuild, give people stability and show them that they are safer with Russia. Hold referendum and and have them special tax reliefs for next 2-3 years. This will all create an contagious atmosphere and more people will want to join.

Because there will be losses and, as territory they hold grows, you'll need more people to police new territories, ensure logistics, etc.

ATLASCUB wrote:Seig how's that army life going bro? Talk about fake ass astroturfer... always picking on Vann for the low hanging fruits... shameless.

You know I have had disagreements with him

But at least he's not a total troll like you

What are you even saying man?

caveat emptor wrote:
Problem i have with Russian politics and society, in general, is that it is not proactive.
Case in hand Chubais. I read now that thry started "investigations" of his foreign holdings and whatnot. Well, no shit Sherlock. Like nobody knew that guy was a thief since beginning of '90s. Still, that didn't stop him from holding high positions in the government. Last one in Rusnano, where he managed to **** up or slow down development of good part of electronics industry.  But, since he was holding official line that didn't prevent him from continuing the plunder. Now that he left the country, they remembered to investigate him. You're Russian and, i presume, live there, so you will know more about that. And he isn't the only one, i can assure you.

Well most people don't realize how bad the rot was from inside

Things are changing , and it's good

Russians harness slow, but are quick to ride

Arkanghelsk wrote:
Well most people don't realize how bad the rot was from inside

Things are changing , and it's good

Russians harness slow, but are quick to ride

It's more that people become too accustomed to these backdoor deals. I've been to Russia only few times, but met enough people that were aware of everything, just took it as a normal way of how things are conducted. It's coming as a byproduct of the 90's and decline of societal norms. And that not enough was done to cleanse the system afterwards.We have same problem in Serbia.

caveat emptor wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Whole propaganda wing of Ru MoD needs to be purged. Bunch of idiots work there. Better put in charge somebody competent instead of idiots that work there now.

Is funny and great to see Putin's fanboys now ...

You should learn to read before commenting.

is what i have been saying for 3 months already..

Russian generals , They fighting in the most retarded ways the ukraine conflict...
they need to stop this unguided bullshit fighting and at very least strike those artillery with their airforce with precision weapons. it can be done , if they had a clue what they doing.

There are many more efficient ways to defeat air defenses and russia is doing nothing .
they not even control the airspace of kharkiv that is right next to Russian borders .  
if they have problems achieving air superiority over Ukraine airspace, then how much worse it will be fighting over NATO airspace with their airforce now smashing Russian positions?    

Russia army what they have shown, is that they are not prepared to fight NATO in a major war.
They need a totally different use of their airforce , different weapons ,smart weapons with realtime view of their targets, and with different generals ,that are not so outdated..

people should never forget that fact.. Ukraine can only use their artillery , when there are no enemy airforce with precision bombs or strike drones flying above their positions So the performance of Russian airforce should be put in a major big question mark. Have been a colossal failure . The entire war is mostly done by Russia , 24 hours unguided explosives artillery and by missiles forces.

This is a great post from Sasha Kots that paints perfect picture of fears that population has in regards to "rotten" deals or treason, if you will.

https://t.me/sashakots/34072

I don’t understand why the image of a knight on a white horse is molded from the Russian army. Who will appreciate this image? Those who are for the RF Armed Forces will not turn away from them in any case. Those who are against cannot be persuaded.

Here, a letter came from the mother of a dead Russian soldier. Read to the end.

“My son died on March 28 in Malaya Rogan. There was no longer any hope, but on June 4 we were informed that there was an exchange and he was among them.

On June 10, we buried our son - a hero. He did not run away, did not leave the wounded, he was not even wounded, but he was not given a chance to live. He and two of his subordinates were shot on the spot. This was already told to us by his commander, who was taken prisoner and then exchanged.

For our family, as well as for many such grief-stricken families, the main thing now is that the death of our sons is not in vain.

@sashakots

People are making a big mistake if they measure Russian progress by the current grind through the Donbass fortified districts.
You cannot extrapolate to the rest of Ukraine the special characteristics of the bunkers and trenches constructed by the Kiev
regime after 2015. Another show stopper detail is that the best regime forces are concentrated in the Donbass special
district. Once that "bastion" falls, it is game over for the Kiev regime. Russia will be able to roll over Odessa and even central
Ukraine at a pace not seen from the initial stages of the invasion/operation.

Vann7 wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Whole propaganda wing of Ru MoD needs to be purged. Bunch of idiots work there. Better put in charge somebody competent instead of idiots that work there now.

Is funny and great to see Putin's fanboys now saying exactly the same things , i have been saying since first week of the war , but critisized by it ,after observing Russian convoys being sent alone without airforce close air support , after seeing how they send tanks to ambush with anti tank weapons and zero combined forces operations from Russian side. After seeing how Russian military using world war 1 super SLOWWW mediocre tactics of wanting to defeat ukraine army 99% using unguided scorch earth tactics,  After seeing how retarded was the way Russian military was trying to target bomb Ukie army in trenches..  You see the evidence of the thousands of artillery misses in the near those trenches...
and to make things more insulting , Ukraine being far more effective with drones than Russia , being very effective with their turkish strike drones , flying freely above russian positions .  

Russia brute force outdated approach to the conflict , was the reason why so many  thousands losses in the russian military . Completely inefficient close air support to this date, if ukraine artillery spot russian positions ,they are as good as dead... Because the russian airforce is not targeting at all ukraine artillery ,which could have wiped entire zones of them if Russia had true close air support, since there the airspace of ukraine is heavily contested . Ukraine artillery is destroyed by the use of other artillery with ground troops or satellite providing coordinates .  

The Russian airforce is the biggest colossal failure in this entire war , highly incompetent , if we compare it with israel airforce performance. Zelensky captured dozens of pilots , from planes that only use 1 pilot. Then later do prisoner swap just today.  Israel have not lost a single pilot in 8 years bombing 2,000 times in syria.  Russia needs to completely change ,modernize its airforce and significantly boost the quality of their tactics and inventory of their drones.


-Inneficient air support.
-inconsistent use of strike drones.
-Highly inefficient use of their airforce..  If they had a capable airforce , those ukraine soldiers
in those trenches would have been smashed in the first week of war , not allowed to shell donbass,
they can only shell ,when Russia shows weaknes with precision strikes .
-Extremely poor use combined arms operations.
-UKRAINE Artillery CAN"T BE USED , if there are planes or strike drones with precision bombs flying above them.

Russian mediocre use of its airforce is by far the sole reason ,Why Russia have to drag their feet in ukraine , moving 10x times slower ,if not 50x times , of what it would be , if they only had True Air domination of the airspace.  AFter 120 days , russia airforce can't fly over the airspace of kharkiv,a city right next to its country borders. if this is not embarrassing then no idea what is.

Now Putin is claiming are "in good will" giving up snake island.    

yeah right,, only fan boys will eat that propaganda shit.. They were defending that island with everything they had and now they are giving up on it..  This is not "good will" at all , but they were forced to abandon it..  Strategic defeat.. is the name.

Reality is , when Russia takes the decision to take Odessa , they will need to retake that island again , to provide a forward base to support their navy and use artillery on odessa from the black sea . So what this decision shows is that Russian military will not invade odessa anytime soon , in the next months if ever. Good luck with NATO to show good will with this.    

How hard is to send a pair of Su-25 flying low and fast , the first one scout the fucking terrain ,search for artillery or airdefenses ,of large ukraine armor concentration ,then the second one  drop a drone right above the position to bomb, then in less than 10 seconds artillery to destroy with precision the targets?   Is irrelevant if the drone will be shot down.. what matters is who kill more first , to take down military hardware before the drone is taken down..

I consider insulting that Russian airforce still today use unguided shitty rockets ,fired randomly from far away distances aiming for lucky shots, against ukraine . Just bomb the hell of those artillery with a precision bomb idiots. Russia needs tv-guided glide missiles to strike at important targets with ultra precision ,  operated by  pilots .   If they time things right , it will be impossible for ukraine to use their air defenses if russian airforce was not lead by idiots.

Putin's fanboys is the worse things in this forum , is what ruins any realistic discussion of Russian army tactics and weakness ,whenever they show them.

you are an ignorant NATO troll, nobody cares what you say haha

Take a look at this new video.. A modernized pantsir with more missiles to target drones..



Better late than never , to see finally Russia is paying a bit of attention of the problem of
saturation attacks.. tactics that israel have been using in Syria since 2011 .  At the  :30seconds..

it shows exactly how is NATO planning to fight future wars..  If Russia think ukraine is difficult ,
is because they not aware how much worse is going to be..   At the 30 seconds of the video ,
shows Swarms of drones.. with artificially intelligence.. (can't be jammed) , This is where NATO is moving. with skies infested of hundreds if not thousands of small ,cheap drones to completely monitor
the airspace and destroy airdefense by saturation strikes..  

Russia is not doing anything to counter this.. The only way to fight such tactics is with massive use
of Energy weapons that burn electronics in the battlefield in a mass scale.   or the return of anti air artillery to create massive area destruction , as normal artillery do it in ground , but this time in air ,proximity fuses smart munition. All this air defenses of russia mark my words will become obsolete for conventional future wars.. with the age of swarm of ai drones.. that are self aware of the targets it needs to eliminate.

Vann7 wrote:
Take a look at this new video.. A modernized pantsir with more missiles to target drones..



Better late than never , to see finally Russia is paying a bit of attention of the problem of
saturation attacks.. tactics that israel have been using in Syria since 2011 .  At the  :30seconds..

it shows exactly how is NATO planning to fight future wars..  If Russia think ukraine is difficult ,
is because they not aware how much worse is going to be..   At the 30 seconds of the video ,
shows Swarms of drones.. with artificially intelligence.. (can't be jammed) , This is where NATO is moving. with skies infested of hundreds if not thousands of small ,cheap drones to completely monitor
the airspace and destroy airdefense by saturation strikes..  

Russia is not doing anything to counter this.. The only way to fight such tactics is with massive use
of Energy weapons that burn electronics in the battlefield in a mass scale.   or the return of anti air artillery to create massive area destruction , as normal artillery do it in ground , but with smart munition.  

Israel's tactics in Syria hahaha, if the Jews can't even fight with the stones of the Palestinians. Israel does not leave its borders and was a failure in Lebanon in 2007. They made a scandal for its ineffectiveness. The Jew likes propaganda and believe they are important when militarily they are rubbish. An overrated country. Dedicate yourself to usury and banks, which is the only thing they are good for.

Let's see if you notice, idiot. If there was an open war with NATO nuclear weapons were used, nobody will care about your virgin child messages and analysis. Go with your mom.

Goodwill gesture? but why?