Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22

Hole posted - I guess the blue arrow is only there to show some "balance" in the reporting.

I read somewhere over the weekend that there was a company or battalion size counter-attack there... went no wheres with heavy casualties.

JohninMK wrote:

The-thing-next-door wrote:The thing I am wondering is if the Russians will take the whole territory, or leave western Ukraine for WWIII?

They have to be very careful not leaving a rump of Ukraine for the US to arm to the teeth and use as a base for terrorists. The US financing is already in place for such a scenario.

My thoughts on this are exactly that, a huge terrorist campaign will follow.
Russia will need a huge buffer zone Golan heights style and do as the Israelis do, any action in that zone, a pounding from the air on intel military positions but also Kiev administration to ensure a broad message of unacceptability of such transgressions is delivered and received.

JohninMK wrote:So much for the 6 month holiday in the UK. Plus Europe as well no doubt.

A “shocking” 50,000 Ukrainian refugees in the UK could be made homeless next year, the government has been warned, but ministers are refusing to offer a fresh package of support to offset the impending crisis. As the cost of living crisis bites and with no end in sight to the war with Russia, fears are mounting that the government’s Homes for Ukraine scheme will unravel next month when refugees’ initial six-month placements with hosts end without alternative accommodation in place.

Although Boris Johnson has framed the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion as a principled triumph, a number of organisations warn that a key response of his government to the conflict’s refugee crisis could prompt a “disastrous rise in homelessness”.

A total of 83,900 refugees have arrived under the Homes for Ukraine scheme since it began in March. Refugees were matched with sponsors who agreed to house them for six months and were paid £350 a month. Not all matches have been successful. Government data reveals that since the war began in February, 1,335 Ukrainian households – including 945 families with children – have registered as homeless. That figure is set to soar from next month. Analysis by children’s charity Barnardo’s, Labour and the Liberal Democrats say that, based on feedback from refugee sponsors, between 15,000 and 21,000 Ukrainians could be homeless by the winter, rising to more than 50,000 by the middle of next year.

One group, Refugees at Home, said the figure could be even higher because of a combination of pressures, including energy bills, soaring inflation and climbing interest rates.

Stanislav Beneš of charity Opora, which has helped about 8,000 Ukrainians into the UK, said: “The initial wave of sponsors included people who did not quite understand the implications and consequences of this sort of responsibility.”  

"We thought we would be back in Ukraine in six months because the war would be over. It’s a very uncertain situation because September and October is actually when these six-month sponsorships come to an end. But honestly, I can speak for myself and for many Ukrainians, when we made the decision to come here, we were planning to go back to Ukraine within the six months because we all believed the war would be over. But it’s not, and a lot of families find themselves really confused right now because it didn’t go the way we planned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/28/50000-ukrainian-refugees-in-uk-facing-homelessness-disaster-next-year-homes-for-ukraine

Bloomberg briefly mentioned in an article 'Ukrainians returning home to fight Russia' as part of the reason why Germany will face a deficit of truck drivers soon that it needs to compensate for dried up river transportation

So yeah, we can put 2 and 2 together

I think the extra number of troops recently added to Russian Army ,will most probably be deployed to Ukraine . And they will make a difference . Once all of Donetsk is liberated and Odessa also , then the Ukrainian troops will loose morale and most will collapse . The Europeans will face severe problems with fuel this winter , and already there are hushed murmurs in the UK , of " doing a deal with Russia , to get fuel ! " This leaves the yanks all alone , but still they may be able to supply weapons to them and money , and find a few stragglers in the Army , or private contractors to fire against Russian troops or infrastructure , as they have been doing . This last problem will not go away by itself , or just because the Europeans are dragging their heels , or Ukrainian troops are exhausted or their Nazi politicians killed or escaped to South America . For this special case , then a similar treatment for America ? How else are they going to stop ? An unknown allied unit , fires a missile from Ukraine into American base ( territory ) in Europe . Or better still , a drone strikes a nuclear reactor in USA ? Is this unthinkable ? Well it is not unthinkable for the yanks or Israelis ! Why is it unthinkable for us ?

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:I feel sorry for the forcibly conscripted Ukrainians who are goaded into these pointless attacks by their commanders and their western advisors.

Each time their casualties have been huge and territorial gains have been minimal or non-existent, and that seems to  be the case this time around as well.

I don't feel sorry at all. It is guaranteed suicide. So why isn't there a mutiny in these units ? Why arent they slaughtering their command ? Or surrendering

Probably because they are so brainwashed. Well that level of brainwashing is unacceptable in the modern Internet era. If you are that stupid then you get what you deserve.

The West has done a lot of harm to Russia with various attempted revolutions in the former USSR republics, then Georgia and finally Ukraine. Many EU countries are wholeheartedly arming the Nazis in Ukraine, while with sanctions and open Russophobia, everything is clear. The West lost any healthy relationship with Russia decades in advance. The Russians are not malicious but they will certainly not forget this, especially since this time they all (West) united against Russia. We Serbs have never been cowards. We often had weak and bad rulers, but we were never cowards and on the wrong "path of history".

Backman wrote:I don't feel sorry at all. It is guaranteed suicide. So why isn't there a mutiny in these units ? Why arent they slaughtering their command ? Or surrendering

Probably because they are so brainwashed. Well that level of brainwashing is unacceptable in the modern Internet era. If you are that stupid then you get what you deserve.

Have to agree, by now several hundred thousands have been either killed or badly wounded, many will be maimed, the command treat them openly as cannon fodder and destroy their country in order to better please their Western curators, with no end in sight... if they don't act now, when do they plan to do it? The only thing we see until now is some whining when they are sent to the meat grinder, followed by the mandatory slava ukraini BS. If they keep lowering their trousers like that, they should know what comes next...

So far what I have read, Slovakia is sending 30 BVP-1 to Ukraine in exchange for 15 leopard 2 (early versions) and Slovakia wants to sell its 11 Mig-29 to Ukraine and neighboring countries will provide air cover for Slovakia. Slovakia have ordered 14 F-16 for $1.6bn and they won't be delivered until sometime during2024. And Germany is struggling to even equip it's own armed forces Has anyone heard anything different?

30 BVP-1 won't make a difference.

Rumours USA wants to spend $100mn training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 and A-10. Yet again won't make a difference and not many Ukrainian pilots left and training a pilot from scratch isn't done overnight. And sending rookie pilots into war against experienced pilots is a bad idea. And any remaining pilots Ukraine has left can't exactly just jump into a F-16 and fly it takes a lot of training and time. These aircraft will be easy targets for Russian AD and aircraft.

d_taddei2 wrote:So far what I have read, Slovakia is sending 30 BVP-1 to Ukraine in exchange for 15 leopard 2 (early versions) and Slovakia wants to sell its 11 Mig-29 to Ukraine and neighboring countries will provide air cover for Slovakia. Slovakia have ordered 14 F-16 for $1.6bn and they won't be delivered until sometime during2024. And Germany is struggling to even equip it's own armed forces Has anyone heard anything different?

30 BVP-1 won't make a difference.

Rumours USA wants to spend $100mn training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 and A-10. Yet again won't make a difference and not many Ukrainian pilots left and training a pilot from scratch isn't done overnight. And sending rookie pilots into war against experienced pilots is a bad idea. And any remaining pilots Ukraine has left can't exactly just jump into a F-16 and fly it takes a lot of training and time. These aircraft will be easy targets for Russian AD and aircraft.

It will make a difference

It will mean more Ukrainians dead. And the more dead the better for Uncle Sham, who along with Britain want to fan as much hate as possible against the Russians. To turn all Ukrainians into ready torpedoes against Russians.

This is a war 'till the last Ukrainian and it has been admitted as such.

Also, more destroyed ex-Soviet gear means a larger cycle of new orders for NATO defense-industrial complexes. The Ukraine gets the ex-Soviet hardware and the ancient NATO surplus such as the Leo 1s, the Eastern European states get all the hand-me-downs such as early Leo 2s or used F-16s, and the advanced European economies provide orders for their own industries or for the US's one to order brand new weaponry and restock their reserves.
There's going to be a major build-up after the war, an expansion of all these armies as well as mass orders of new vehicles and equipment. Assuming they manage to stop their dumpster fire inflation and economy careening off the tracks.. that wasn't part of the plan

Maybe in the short term the USA will get big contracts for its military industrial complex, but it is not impossible that it will lose those same contracts outside the EU, Australia and Japan. I am thinking above all of the countries of Asia and South America. It will become the market of Russia, China, and perhaps India in the future. The USA is desperately fighting for Europe, because without it, the USA is used kondom.

How's the apparent "Kherson counteroffensive" ? atm.

seems not as hyped as previous.

News from EUtopia.

August 30, 08:13,
updated on August 30, 08:37

Military operation in Ukraine
Borrel considers Ukraine to be a very bad situation

PRAGUE, August 30. /TASS/. The situation in the combat zone of Ukraine remains very bad, the country needs new help, the ministers of defense of the EU discuss the mission to prepare the Ukrainian military. This was announced by the head of the EU's foreign policy service, Josep Borrell, upon his arrival at the informal meeting of the defense ministers of the European Union in Prague.

"The situation remains very bad. Ukraine needs our help, and we will continue to provide it in the form of military means, and the ministers will also discuss the idea of ​​creating a high-level mission for the preparation of the Ukrainian army," he said. Borrel explained that the meeting was informal in nature, so no final decisions would be made at it, but he hoped for a preliminary consensus with help and a mission.
He added that EU defense ministers would consider expanding military purchases as community countries run out of their military stocks. A practical decision to launch an EU training mission for Ukraine on Tuesday will not be made, only a general consensus can be reached, the head of the EU foreign policy service believes.
According to Borrell, the EU countries discussed the creation of a mission to train the Ukrainian army even before the start of hostilities.

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15594067

August 30, 08:05,
updated August 30, 08:30

Military operation in Ukraine
Source: the decrease in military supplies to Kiev is associated with the depletion of stocks of weapons
The European Union intends to continue assistance to Ukraine

BRUSSELS, 30 August. /TASS/. The decrease in the volume of EU military supplies to Ukraine this summer is temporary, it is associated with the exhaustion of stocks of free weapons, but the EU intends to continue to help Kiev. This was reported to TASS by a diplomatic source in Brussels.
"The European Union is committed to continuing to provide broad military assistance to Ukraine. The slowdown in deliveries in the summer is temporary. The problem is that most of the available stocks of free weapons have come to an end. Therefore, a decision must be made on how to continue to supply the Ukrainian army without compromising our own defense," he declared.

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15593993

nomadski wrote:
I think the extra number of troops recently added to Russian Army ,will most probably be deployed to Ukraine . And they will make a difference .

Many Russian battle groups in Ukraine are currently under stuffed 20-30%. Russia so far had twice to increase age limits and drop education level in order to increase its own numbers - it was not enough still. This latest addition is just continuation of the same direction. Problem for Russia is that those new troops will be unexperienced - I do not want to think their chances once they meet battle hardened Ukrainian forces in Donbass for example. Problem of solders numbers to be deployed is much bigger for Russia. Ukraine knows Russia can not afford politically full mobilization so there is hard red line for Russia. On Ukrainian side real issue is supply of enough equipment and time needed for training. In normal circumstances it needs months if not years to train few hundred thousand soldiers with totally new weapons - so that is big limit on Ukrainian side and one of the reason why this war will last years if not decades.

nomadski wrote:Once all of Donetsk is liberated and Odessa also , then the Ukrainian troops will loose morale and most will collapse .

Good luck with that wishes. Odessa is fortress now. Ukrainians are put into existential survival corner - there is 0 chance that they will stop the fight. And real booster for their morale is Zelenskyy who proved to be extraordinary natural leader, he is the strongest weapon on Ukrainian side.

nomadski wrote:The Europeans will face severe problems with fuel this winter , and already there are hushed murmurs in the UK , of " doing a deal with Russia , to  get fuel ! " This leaves the yanks all alone , but still they may be able to supply weapons to them and money , and find a few stragglers in the Army , or private contractors to fire against Russian troops or infrastructure , as they have been doing . This last problem will not go away by itself , or just because the Europeans are dragging their heels , or Ukrainian troops are exhausted or their Nazi politicians killed or escaped to South America . For this special case , then a similar treatment for America ? How else are they going to stop ? An unknown allied unit , fires a missile from Ukraine into American base ( territory ) in Europe . Or better still , a drone strikes a nuclear reactor in USA ? Is this unthinkable ? Well it is not unthinkable for the yanks or Israelis  ! Why is it unthinkable for us ?

European countries are indeed divided and if it is up to big EU countries like Germany, France, Italy - they would be more then happy to push Ukraine under the bus and keep flow of energy and economy in plus. However there are other countries like Baltics, Nordics, CZ, Slovakia and Poland - they took situation seriously and are doing real action, all of them are doing big investment and expansion of their military capabilities, also production of heavy weaponry in those countries will sky rocket - and one goal is to have enough industrial base to supply Ukraine long term... so those bigger EU powers are pushed away totally and by that are forced to join the train if they do not want to be left behind. EU internal geopolitical center is moving away from west to north east at the moment.

For US - its supply and support to Ukraine is secured for next 2 years and elections. What happens after that is big question.

Ukraine - is aware of all of those political interests and its weak position and dependencies. At the moment they are buying more and more time. In practice that means listing and checking needed equipment, once something arrives it is sent to front and tested in real conditions asap. If equipment proves to be difficult for maintenance, too weak compared to Russian counterpart, it is scraped and specifically told to West to stop its supply since it is not what Ukraine needs and then new list is made and iteration starts again. So far Ukraine in that respect is doing fantastic job, much more fast and efficient than anyone in the West could predict lol. So West does not have breathing time, it can not send some crap and hope it will be quiet next 6 months.

And by all this, Ukraine is steadily increasing its arsenal as well as technical know how for it and forcing west to send more equipment with real punch, range, precision etc...
They are also keeping secret some of their own capabilities from West and Russia, which proves that someone on their side is with quite big brain and able to execute quite complex strategy planning which is not good news for Russia's long term prospects on battle field.

So effort on battlefield for both sides will not be reduced any time soon. Russia will keep upper hand - but with more and more effort since its numerical advantage is steadily eroded and logistics get more difficult.

[quote="Scorpius"]

mr_hd wrote: ...

Suddenly every Ukrainian is battle hardened. You ignore the mass conscriptions quite conveniently. Have Fun on my foe list.