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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

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    rfan


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    Post  rfan Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:14 am

    The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

    Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

    Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

    The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

    Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

    The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

    Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

    Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:58 am

    caveat emptor wrote:
    Bro, Stalin was fighting German army, which was the best land army at that time. Put things in context.  Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 13 1f600
    On a sidenote, I didn't know that gopnik is Russian. Weird bird, in any case.

    A context you are saying?

    France has 120k active army.
    UK is about 150k.
    Germany is 260k.
    Poland is 150k.
    Ukraine was 260k, but now they have mobilized about twice of that.

    They had about ten times the AD of France in numbers, twice the air forces of Germany, three times more tanks&APC than Poland (the fourth heaviest army in NATO after US, Turkey and Greece), ten times the number of artillery.

    Want more context?

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:07 am

    rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

    Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

    Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

    The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

    Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

    The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

    Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

    Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

    No, if Russia mobilizes then it will lose

    Because the only place Russia can lose is in the economy and on the homefront. Calling up reserves away from their families and their employers to fight in a war outside Russia's borders is the last thing you want to do.
    Conversely if it keeps to the colonial expedition strategy and 'out of sight, out of mind' for the homefront then it will get away with it.

    Russia is not going to get thrown out of the Ukraine militarily no matter how many bodies Kiev throws at the problem. And that supply of bodies is really not infinite at all.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:40 am

    Our short sight&memory friends seem to miss another part of the story.
    What we have here is a reverse of February/March.
    The Russian army was advancing forward along the routes, leaving the conquested territory behind, and being targeted by the mobile Ukro units. Some a few men size.
    Russian positions are not overwhelmed, conquered or whatsoever. We see no triumphal trophies other than a couple of flags and artillery rounds. We see no dead bodies of Russian soldiers, and a few POWs.
    And I mean "a few" not in context, but directly - a five of them or so??
    Russian army just withdrew in an organized manner from some positions they considered too costly to keep or unnecessary at this stage of the war.
    Maybe some republican mobilized units have been hit badly, but ... this is war.
    What you are doing now my friends, is spreading the panic.
    Exactly what the Ukro propaganda wanted you to do, and tried to make you do it.
    But in some cases, they didn't have to work hard Laughing as chicken the little is your callsign Laughing Laughing

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    Singular_Transform
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    Post  Singular_Transform Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:46 am

    The Russian strategy is simple.

    They have to choose from these options:
    1. Protect the life of soldier
    2. Gain / keep territory
    3. Keep the economy in good shape.

    They opted for no 1 and 2.


    Ukrainans opted for no 2 .

    So, now Russians trade area to destroy the leftover best of the Ukrainans forces.

    It is that simple.


    There is no fight that you can not win if you can send endless wave of man into the meat grinder.

    But if you haven't got endless supply of soldiers then as soon as they run out you stand naked in the freezing cold.

    What could be expected?

    Russians has lot of weapons with thin manpower support in the area, means if the USA willing to sacricfice lot of ukrainans then the surviving ones could overhelm the infrantry screening.
    Means they killing as many as possible, and at the same time they pull back.
    Considering that Ukraine is not China, means there is only a limited ammount of soldiers after a while they will run out of people.

    Check this :
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Isandlwana

    20 000 Zulu defeated a 1800 strong British invasion force, Zulus suffered 3000 loss, British 1300.

    Most likelly the high loss of life on the British side was due to overconfidence.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:54 am

    Singular_Transform wrote:The Russian strategy is simple.
    They have to choose  from these options:
    1. Protect the life of soldier
    2. Gain / keep territory
    3. Keep the economy in good shape.
    They opted for no 1 and 2.
    Ukrainans opted for no 2 .
    So, now Russians trade area to destroy the leftover best of the Ukrainans forces.
    It is that simple.
    There is no fight that you can not win if you can send endless wave of man into the meat grinder.
    But if you haven't got endless supply of soldiers then as soon as they run out you stand naked in the freezing cold.
    What could be expected?
    Russians has lot of weapons with thin manpower support in the area, means if the USA willing to sacricfice lot of ukrainans then the surviving ones could overhelm the infrantry screening.
    Means they killing as many as possible, and at the same time they pull back.
    Considering that Ukraine is not China, means there is only a limited ammount of soldiers after a while they will run out of people.
    Check this :
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Isandlwana
    20 000 Zulu defeated a 1800 strong British invasion force, Zulus suffered 3000 loss, British 1300.
    Most likelly the high loss of life on the British side was due to  overconfidence.

    Ukrs can't win this trade off.
    They are outnumbered 1:5 in human factor, and even more in economic.
    No sane authorities would act like that.
    The kamikaze strikes on the Zaporozhye NPP were an insane lost of assets.
    A 300+ killed SOF is insane. Imagine how much cost a training of a SOF soldier.
    And what is more than that, it all benefit the Russkies.
    In a case that you don't realize that - the most important factor for special forces is morale. Those are the highest motivated folks one can pick. The ones that would perform guerilla and partisan activities after the war stops. Killing them in hundreds now, means you don't have to kill them later, when they already soak into society, and you need to find them out. Sometimes after they will blow up a bridge or something.
    This trade off pays to the Russians. Ukrs who were sitting in the Charkov, Slavyansk, Odessa or Kiev are now in open, hit by the artillery.
    Who benefits that ?

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    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:07 am

    flamming_python wrote:Meanwhile the 6th columnists have progressed for searching for scapegoats and enemies within over their imagined catastrophic defeat What a Face

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:...There are people in Russia who don't want Russia to win...

    It's your country and if you feel that more is required then you should gather all the like-minded folks, hit the streets, proclaim your support for military escalation and demand more war

    Protest are not just for traitors and hippies




    And you're mis-attributing a quote to me

    Sorry, fixed

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    mr_hd


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    Post  mr_hd Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:35 am

    rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

    Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

    Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

    The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

    Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

    The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

    Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

    Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.
    Russia will be defeated in Ukraine no matter what on long run. Ukraine is simply way too large and way too motivated to fight, it is not like Moldavia or Georgia where frozen, limited conflict will work and were Russia has undisputed upper hand. So far Ukraine always found way to re-group and hit back and disrupt Russian strategy.

    And their capabilities are growing, not fast, but steadily are going up so Russian huge advantage in numbers and heavy artillery is going slowly down (it was 12:1 at the beginning in Russian advantage). The war in Ukraine has potential to reduce overall capabilities and strength of Russian military as well it can negatively impact security of the country. It is huge mess, for me it is not clear why Putin decided to do such a big and high risk gamble from the start.

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    andalusia


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    Post  andalusia Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:35 am

    I just saw this article by Paul Craig Roberts and what do you guys think of this:

    https://www.unz.com/proberts/the-kremlins-limited-military-operation-in-ukraine-was-a-strategic-blunder/
    OminousSpudd
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    Post  OminousSpudd Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:36 am

    Many lamented Russian tactics at the start of the war, where Ukrainian civilians were valued over Russian lives, it is interesting how we see a reversal of sorts with Balakliya, now former Ukrainian citizens find themselves looking down the barrels of the VSU, while Russian soldiers swiftly expedite the area. We'll no doubt see reprisals conducted against the locals.

    Sad, rather stupid, possibly avoidable, but it's the typical Machiavellian pragmatism that the hand wringers should expect from wars the world over.

    Not trying to belittle it, particularly for any Russians here who have close contacts in the region, it's sad and a damn shame.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:40 am

    Let the grandmothers and the fifth columnists on this forum cry, I believe that the Russians know what they are doing. I don't follow half of of forum members here and I don't like their posts, but I don't comment on them. Here, you already know who follows whom, respects or likes comments. I cannot read anymore the posts of a man who goes from extreme euphoria to senseless pathos (Arkhangelsk). It's worse than watching links from CNN and CNBC - yes it is. The Russian economy has withstood the pressure of EUtopia and the USA, the Russian military industrial complex is working, and future alliances are being created with China and other countries. I don't care about Balakleya because Russia will crush the whole blue-yellow Nazi Ukroshitstan state in the end. Everything requires time, which the Russians have, but the West and Ukroshit do not have. Let the Russians do what they are doing because you don't know Russian plans just like I don't know what they are planing. They are qualified for their job and on the contrary we are not.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:45 am

    Only if Izyum falls will matters be serious for the Russians. I cannot say if the claim some fanboy dug up from a random guy is true or not we will see in a few days if this grouping is not trapped then that was clearly a lie.

    I don't believe things are critical just yet for the russians in that area.

    So far this looks like a battle of the bulge situation to me, etc the Ukies pushed in with an over whelming number of forces took a spot but now risk be encircled and trapped.

    There is logic that this was a trap, but could also just be a case of the russians being pushed out.

    We will have to see, fanboys trying to salvage but posting shit means nothing in the end, only the results on the ground matter

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:48 am

    mr_hd wrote:
    rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

    Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

    Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

    The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

    Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

    The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

    Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

    Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.
    Russia will be defeated in Ukraine no matter what on long run. Ukraine is simply way too large and way too motivated to fight, it is not like Moldavia or Georgia where frozen, limited conflict will work and were Russia has undisputed upper hand. So far Ukraine always found way to re-group and hit back and disrupt Russian strategy.

    And their capabilities are growing, not fast, but steadily are going up so Russian huge advantage in numbers and heavy artillery is going slowly down (it was 12:1 at the beginning in Russian advantage). The war in Ukraine has potential to reduce overall capabilities and strength of Russian military as well it can negatively impact security of the country. It is huge mess, for me it is not clear why Putin decided to do such a big and high risk gamble from the start.

    The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

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    Post  Mir Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:55 am

    Looks like a huge rat trap to me dunno

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    Post  mr_hd Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:59 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:

    The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

    Well if it is so simple why is getting more hard to beat them on the ground? It is now 7th months of the conflict, they should be totally destroyed already. In any case time will tell what will happen...

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:05 am

    mr_hd wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:

    The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

    Well if it is so simple why is getting more hard to beat them on the ground? It is now 7th months of the conflict, they should be totally destroyed already. In any case time will tell what will happen...

    That is because lack of troops on the Russian side and Putin's hand holding of the army.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:06 am

    mr_hd wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:

    The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

    Well if it is so simple why is getting more hard to beat them on the ground? It is now 7th months of the conflict, they should be totally destroyed already. In any case time will tell what will happen...

    Ukr is fighting a total war.

    Unless you're willing to flatten villages and cities you're just going to have to wait for them to put people in uniform

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:11 am

    mr_hd wrote:
    rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

    Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

    Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

    The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

    Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

    The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

    Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

    Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.
    Russia will be defeated in Ukraine no matter what on long run. Ukraine is simply way too large and way too motivated to fight, it is not like Moldavia or Georgia where frozen, limited conflict will work and were Russia has undisputed upper hand. So far Ukraine always found way to re-group and hit back and disrupt Russian strategy.

    And their capabilities are growing, not fast, but steadily are going up so Russian huge advantage in numbers and heavy artillery is going slowly down (it was 12:1 at the beginning in Russian advantage). The war in Ukraine has potential to reduce overall capabilities and strength of Russian military as well it can negatively impact security of the country. It is huge mess, for me it is not clear why Putin decided to do such a big and high risk gamble from the start.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 13 10238350

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    Post  TMA1 Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:26 am

    Whew a lot of stuff has been posted recently. Names I haven't seen before come out of the woodwork in sync with a propaganda blitz here in the west of Russian defeat and bewilderment. Not sure if it is just a fluke or what. I will say this, for all I hear about "Russian bots", Russia and Russian aligned NGOs arent spending hundreds of millions in propaganda and psywar on the internets and other media. Who is utilizing bots and shills exactly? Frankly not Russia. In one way thry truly suck is in this new propaganda war. Ironic as here in the west "Russian bots" and "Putin shills" are behind every post and every yt video made. The projection is frankly quite incredible to behold.

    This conflict sure has shown me one thing. Though the average person may not be a retard, he/she sure doesnt even attempt to dig to any depth for further understanding. They just assume. I mean we all do this, but damn it wouldnt hurt if people here in the west would dig a bit under the veneer to see what's actually going on.

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    Post  Isos Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:31 am

    For the people who think letting ukrainians advance was a mastermind plan, it wasn't.


    Levi
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    According to information available, the „purge“ is already beginning.

    Those responsible for the massive fuckup in Balakleya will be punished. Commanding Staff will change radically.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:38 am

    I'm really not buying it

    Disinfo is going to be active at this stage until the noose closes or whatever the plan is

    This Balakleya or whatever was on the front-line and the Russians had every intel and advance warning of Ukrainian preparations for an offensive in the Kharkov region, and all the spies, recon and whatever else to boot

    If Russian forced withdrew in such a hurry and Ukrainian forces have advanced so far then it is intentional

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:45 am

    flamming_python wrote:I'm really not buying it

    Disinfo is going to be active at this stage until the noose closes or whatever the plan is

    This Balakleya or whatever was on the front-line and the Russians had every intel and advance warning of Ukrainian preparations for an offensive in the Kharkov region, and all the spies, recon and whatever else to boot

    If Russian forced withdrew in such a hurry and Ukrainian forces have advanced so far then it is intentional

    That's utter non-sense don't sit there and act like the russians cannot make a major **** up, they are human and perfectly capable of such all humans are.

    We will find out in a few days if that was planned our the russians took the L

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    Post  Isos Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:47 am

    HIMARS are being run in daylight on roads. Ukrainians are mounting counteroffensive ops. Russia can't even target them.

    They are fucking up. That's what happen when you don't have control of the sky and don't use your air force.

    Russians politicians are still hoping they will oblige the west to make a deal if they freeze the frontline. They are dumb. The west will burn ukraine to kill as many russians as possible. They are pathetic.

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    Post  limb Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:59 am

    "Muh 4D chess" excuses are pathetic.

    On a separate note, whats going on in Kherson? Why haven't visokopolye, and the andreevka bridgehead been retaken?

    Why did it take 2 months for kodema to be taken. My prediction was right. Soledar by September at the earliest, artemovsk by November, maybe even January.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:17 am

    limb wrote:"Muh 4D chess" excuses are pathetic.

    On a separate note, whats going on in Kherson? Why haven't visokopolye, and the andreevka bridgehead been retaken?

    Why did it take 2 months for kodema to be taken. My prediction was right. Soledar by September at the earliest, artemovsk by November, maybe even January.

    Maybe you're better off playing a prophetess in The Matrix because your rambling about months has nothing to do with reality. Meteorologists are wrong about the weather forecast for the next few days, but Matrix, like you, knows everything about the future development in Ukroshitstan. You are a genius, I have to admit it.

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