Ispan wrote:Detailed report and a few analysis, own and others
https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/09/14/parte-de-guerra-14-09-2022-las-batallas-por-los-rios/
Back on translate duty
This is a big one
Part of war 09/14/2022 – the battles for the rivers
14 September, 2022 Zhukov
General situation:
These days the most active fronts are being fought in the course of three rivers: the Oskol to the north, barrier in which the Ukrainian offensive of Kharkov has been stopped, the Seversky Donets (Northern Donets) centered on the city of Krasny Liman and second battle for this river, now with the Ukrainian forces of the Izyum salient on the offensive, and for two weeks the bloody battle of the Ingulets River is being fought, where the Ukrainians seek to cross the river and push back the Russians from the city of Kherson and on the other side of the Dnieper.
On the Oskol River the situation has stabilized as the Ukrainians have been severely punished from the air in their offensive and needed time to regroup and prepare a new attack either to the east across the river, although today they have already returned to the attack, or to the north to invade Russian territory and attack Belgorod.
On the Ingulets River today the Russian aviation has destroyed with missiles the Karachun reservoir dam causing a partial flooding of the city of Krivoy Rog and and the increase in the flow reinforces the value of the river as an obstacle, the flood has taken the pontoon bridges and the bridgeheads that the Ukrainians have managed to establish at the cost of thousands of casualties have been isolated and will probably be eliminated. In any case, it buys time to strengthen the positions. Belatedly, fortification engineer units with bulldozers have arrived to prepare positions.
This unexpected Russian action aborts the planned renewed Ukrainian offensive on the river that included a landing on the coast to flank the Russian position, a few boats, five have attempted a raid on the restinga (coastal cordon) of Kinburn and have been destroyed by helicopters and artillery.
It also means that by making it difficult to cross the river, the Russians will be able to send their reserves behind the Kherson front to the Central Front, Zaporozhe-Donetsk, where a new offensive is being prepared. By having the Ukrainians open corridors in their own minefields to move on to the attack, they leave the door open to a possible rupture of the front if their attack is repulsed and the Russians counterattack.
By eliminating the hypothesis of a Russian offensive in Kherson, the probability grows that the Russians will counterattack from the Oskol or from Belgorod in order to regain the lost territory in Kharkov before the Ukrainians consolidate their position.
The most disturbing thing for the enemy is that no movement of Russian troops is seen, except that reinforcements are on the way to the Central Front, that reinforcements have arrived to the defenders of Krasny Liman and that a Moscow ring highway was closed to civilian traffic, presumably to allow the movement of military material by road from one railway track to another.
On the results of the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov
Ukrainian sources, now that the drunkenness of enthusiasm for their victory has cooled down a little, are beginning to evaluate the results of the offensive more soberly. It is noted that during the Kharkiv operation, the Ukrainian armed forces lost at least 40% of the transferred Western aid, which had accumulated during the end of spring and the whole summer. And this is without taking into account the volume of losses of fighters of those formations that the Nazi regime was training all summer, leaving the Volkssturm units to "zero".
Especially dramatic are the losses on air defense systems, which were already in short supply. So now the Russian aviation is ironing out the "winners" in the Kharkov region, including with 500-kilogram bombs (for which the banderites are particularly upset), and continues to increase the frightening statistics for Kiev.
The most important thing is that the Ukrainians come to the conclusion that the offensive on which they had pinned such hopes has not alleviated or improved their situation at all, but has left them without a large part of their reserves. And now they don't know what to do if Russia goes on the offensive, trying to reassure themselves with predictions that "the Russians will not advance until the spring."
Observations on casualties:
10 thousand casualties in the Kherson offensive have been confirmed with reasonable certainty and are still rising. The Kharkov offensive by comparisonhas come out cheap, but not for free. There was almost no fighting, because there were no Russian defenders, but according to reports only on September 8 and 9, 1,200 wounded entered. It follows that the lion's share of casualties was in the initial phase when they tried to take Balakleya and break through the barrier fire of Russian artillery. Then they continued to receive a couple of days until the guns of the Izyum group fell silent because the enemy advance took the ammunition depots to the rear.
The Ukrainians, then, lost 2,000 casualties in the offensive. Then when they came out in the open, they were under aviation attacks and missile and rocket attacks on the rear in Chuguyev and Kharkov, which are adding casualties.
If the troop losses are relatively small, and losing 4,000 casualties is enough or 10% of the force used, the material losses have been quite large. When moving along the roads all those armored cars and pickups offer targets to aviation and helicopters. In fact the Ukros complain that they have lost 40% of the material provided by NATO, so assuming that Western armored vehicles are half of the park would give a 20% loss in war materiel. By advancing so fast, the anti-aircraft defense has not been able to follow them and they have been left without protection from air attacks. Similar happened to the Egyptians in the Yom Kippur War, who as soon as they advanced outside the umbrella of the SAM they received their own.
I am not the only one who has reason to believe that Ukraine has overflowed the bottom of the recruitment barrel.
In my analyses I calculated 40,000 dead, to simplify "irretrievable losses" (dead, maimed, missing) for the first year of the war 2014-2015. Then in all the years of the war of attrition the dead accumulated to be as many as in 2014-2015. And so far in the war with Russia, it may be that there are another 50-70 thousand dead plus ten thousand prisoners, according to the counts and estimates that are made.
Ukraine has been able to replenish losses and even increase the size of the army with a mass levy of Volkssturm, recovered wounded and a few thousand mercenaries to make bulk. But this is already the peak, from now on losses cannot be replenished except with recovered wounded. Another thing, mercenaries only fight when things are going well. The moment they start to fall like bedbugs they leave.
In any case, the most decisive thing is the loss of war materiel and weapons. That is why the peace offers are trying their luck to see if the Kremlin is discouraged by this defeat and agrees, but from now on, as it is demonstrated that Ukraine cannot recover territory, much less win the war, and the economic bill to support the regime increases, the negotiating position of the United States and its vassals will worsen.
On the other hand, the war has already entered an escalation that Russia will have no choice but to continue until the total defeat of Ukraine and its disappearance as a state. There is no turning back now, and it remains to be seen if the war does not spread.
Summaries of the Day
Summary of Strelkov
News from the battle fronts:
Belgorod Front - numerous attacks on military and civilian targets on the border territory of the Russian Federation.
Oskol Front – no recent data available.
Front in Seversky Donets - the fighting continues north of Svyatogorsk, in the area of the estuary and in the forests of the bend of the river southwest of Kremennaya.
Direction Soledar-Bakhmut (Artemovsk) - it is claimed that yesterday the Wagner group managed to make significant progress in the vicinity of Bakhmut. To what extent this information corresponds to reality, I do not know (maybe it will, but the offensive "underthe operational shadow" of large enemy strike groups threatening the flanks, in my opinion, is a senseless waste of forces (if not worse)).
Remark: It seems obvious to me that the Ukrainians have withdrawn troops from their fortifications in the Donbass salient for offensives and the Russian forces in this sector are taking advantage of the opportunity. I repeat, the Russians have not suffered a major setback in Kharkov beyond the retreat and there are no reasons to go on the defensive on the wholefront.
Donetsk Front- unchanged. The fighting in Marinka, 2/3 of the village is still held by the enemy. the attempts of the Donetsk Militia to advance there, have not had any results for several weeks. The enemy continued to heavily bombard the residential areas of Donetsk and Gorlovvka, as well as other populations.
In the direction of Dokuchaev, the enemy bombarded own positions with shells all day yesterday, but did not attack them.
From the Zaporozhee front, apart from reports of the accumulation of enemy forces, no information was received.
Positional battles continued on the Kherson front. There was a scoring (combat reconnaissance) by insignificant enemy forces in the direction of the Davydov Ford.
In general: On all fronts, the enemy is preparing to attack and is gathering additional forces. Personally, I cautiously assume probable: the main attack on the Zaporozhee front, auxiliary, between Donetsk and Gorlovka, in the Dokuchaevsk area, in the Beryslav direction of the Kherson front, as well as directly in the Kherson area. I don't know the timing of the offensive, but I think that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hardly give our troops time to strengthen their positions and regroup their troops in the threatened areas.
Summary of Boris Rozhin "Colonel Cassad" and others
1. Front in Oskol and Kupiansk, without significant changes. There are signs of stabilization here so far.
supplementary report of Старше Седды
The situation on the Oskol front. The enemy is trying to probe our defenses from Chervonyi Oskol to Lisichansk. Large enemy forces, supported by artillery, are trying to attack one or another area. They act competently, the raisin warriors cling on, but the situation is very tense. Khokhol is running everywhere, attacking from Svyatogorsk and Kupyansk, attacking with large forces. Apparently, it is now that Kiev has introduced almost all the reserves.
2. Yampol and Krasny Liman stand firm.
The fighting continues at the enemy bridgehead on the northern bank of the Seversky Donets.
Старше Эдды
The situation on the Oskol front. The enemy is trying to probe our defenses from Chervonyi Oskol to Lisichansk. Large enemy forces supported by artillery try to attack one section and another. They act competently, the Izyum warriors are resisting, but the situation is very tense. Ukrainians are advancing from all sides, attacking from Svyatogorsk and Kupiansk, attacking in large numbers. Now Kiev has brought almost all its reserves.
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9406
3. Svyatogorsk remains in the disputed area. Neither side declares control over the city.
4. Near the border with the Belgorod oblast (province or region), Ukrainian forces have carried out some shelling incidents, but for now they are concentrating on strengthening the front in Oskol and occupying the remaining unoccupied villages. Today they officially announced the occupation of Izyum.
5. The enemy's attempts to take Belogorovka were unsuccessful, but the fighting continues there, as well as in Verkhnekamenskoye and Ivano-Daryevka.
Fighting in the streets in Soledar.
6. Near Artemovsk (Bakhmut), our troops are expanding their control zone around Kodema and on the Artemovsk-Dzerzhinsk highway. There are battles for the fortifications protecting Zaitsevo.
7. There are no changes in the direction of Donetsk, as well as in Marinka and Ugledar.
8. The enemy is accumulating forces in the Zaporozhe direction. Attempts to attack on Vasilievka and Tokmak are not ruled out.
Vladimir Rogov (@VRogov) reports on the failed Ukrainian attack on Zaporozeye.
Zaporozhye Front: Details of an attempted breakthrough near Nesterianka
On the morning of September 14, units of the 65th Ukrainian Motorized Infantry Brigade tried to break through the defenses of units of the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division near the village of Nesterianka, Zaporozhe region.
Three unsuccessful attempts to break through our defense, thanks to the skillful action of artillery and the fire of rifle units, and the advancing enemy stopped, suffered heavy losses and retreated to their positions. As a result of the battle, an enemy tank was destroyed by RPG fire, and although the crew survived, they were abandoned by their fellow soldiers who fled the battlefield.
As a result of the confrontation, Zelensky's fighters lost more than 50 men killed. Three tanks and three American-made M113 armored personnel carriers were destroyed, and seven men were taken prisoner, one of whom was an officer.
The interrogation of the priisonersestablished that the units were short-staffed, most of them were reservists who had not received minimal training and were thrown into combat as cannon fodder.
9. There are no significant changes in the direction of Nikolayevka. Reports about the capture of Kiselevka by the Ukrainians are false. There are also no significant advances by the enemy on the Andreyevka bridgehead. In addition, the destruction of the Karachun Dam is causing problems for pontoon bridges on the Ingulets River.
Assessment on the withdrawal from Kharkov: a success, not a failure
for your interest and antidote against so much defeatism and hysteria I reproduce this detailed analysis
by ZornKrieger
The Russian withdrawal was a success and not a failure contrary to the prevailing perspective. I detail why below:
First of all, we need to address some negative aspects that we can all agree on: civilians, morality and public relations.
With Russian forces withdrawing from the Kharkov region, Russian civilians and Russian supporters in the region now face harsh reprisals and subjugation under the unfriendly rule of the Ukrainian forces that have taken over. One of the objectives of the special military operation has been the protection of civilians.
Ukrainian forces on all fronts have probably received a morale boost from this offensive. A morale boost is very necessary in an army that has been under missile and artillery attack, has been forced to go to the front in situations that can only be described as human wave tactics, and has witnessed that the territory they controlled is steadily but surely seizing.
From a PR perspective, this has certainly demoralized the pro-Russian channels and reporters covering the conflict. The Western masses receiving the news about the war now see irrefutable proof that the Ukrainians have regained territory, which, of course, has become a decisive victory for the Ukrainians. This, in turn, will probably boost arms shipments and financing from the West to Ukraine. Russians in the liberated territories may also feel less inclined to help Russian forces and cooperate if they feel that the Russians may withdraw in the future.
All that said, we have heard reports that Russians and pro-Russians in the Kharkov region were evacuated weeks and even months before the Ukrainian offensive. The loss of those who wished to stay is still devastating, but at least they had a choice. Recall, the main goal of this special military operation has been the demilitarization of the armed forces of Ukraine, with the protection of civilians being a secondary goal. The Russian army is designed to eradicate and destroy the enemy, its main focus is not on protecting civilians. On top of that, their main goal, again, is not solely focused on changing morale or public relations if the price of doing so hurts their ability to conduct the war.
——
Claims of a major defeat should address the following: Russian forces did not participate in a battle, the Russians withdrew from almost the entire territory of the Kharkov region, not only from the areas threatened by the offensive, the Russians escaped with all their strength essentially intact and the fact that Russian forces were withdrawing from the area weeks earlier.
The retreat from Kharkov or is a military defeat in the classical sense. The Ukrainian army did not expel the Russians from the territory. Certainly, their maneuvers threatened the Russian positions to some extent, but we could not see whether Russia was able to stop the offensive through active defense. Apart from some brief skirmishes with smaller units, there was no battle or prolonged fighting in the region. The brief skirmishes we saw managed to at least stop or briefly stop the offensive actions. There was never a defeat of Russian units. Even in Balaklaya, we saw a small Russian unit stay in the city and fight for a few days until they finally escaped.
Although the Ukrainian offensive was powerful, it was localized in the Balaklaya area. The withdrawal of the Russians was carried out throughout the Kharkov region. Northwest of Kharkov, for example, the Russians were expanding the territory they controlled just before the Ukrainian offensive to the south. Even today, a good part of the settlements have not yet been occupied by Ukrainian forces. One could argue that the Ukrainian forces would eventually regroup and be sent to the other areas, but that would have taken its time and would have been unknown until it happened.
The retreating forces largely escaped unharmed. From the few casualty estimates we have, we can safely say that the Russian losses were a few hundred at worst.
For a lightning offensive, the Ukrainians did not completely encircle, let alone engage in serious combat with Russian forces.
Finally, we know that the Russian forces in the area, largely composed of the Donbass militia and Rosgvardia units, were much smaller than the previous force sizes we had seen in the area, up to 20 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izyum area, if I remember correctly. It is difficult to argue that the Russians at the time of the offensive had more than a couple of battalions in the area, and these were not near Balaklaya. For the past three weeks, we had heard that the Russians were withdrawing forces in the area, and this seems to have been true.
In short, my points prove that this was a success for the Russians. It seems that the Russians have full control of when and where they want to engage their troops and they had a safety net for this exact scenario. The reduction of forces, the withdrawal of the entire Kharkov region and the small number of casualties show that Russia was unwilling to stay in the region and allowed its forces to fight whenever and wherever they wanted them to fight. The fact that the Lyman region was secured at the very beginning of the war, ensuring a secure line of defense along the Oskil River, shows the long-term planning of the Russian command to prepare the battlefield for maneuvers and defense. Combined with the previous reduction of forces, I think we can safely say that the Russians planned this and were ready to withdraw in order to keep the battlefield advantageous for any future operations they have planned.
Finally, we witnessed more than 2-3 thousand Ukrainian losses in men and a considerable amount of material. The Ukrainian forces abandoned their fortifications and urban areas, and set out on the move, exposing themselves to air strikes and artillery fire. The amount of destruction the Russians dealt in this area would have taken weeks to achieve that result if the Russians were on the offensive. It can be argued that Russia should deploy more powerful actions and weaponsosa, that more troops are needed, etc.; the fact is that, taking into account the current Russian limitations, the points I mentioned above prove that this was a successful operation.
War crimes of Ukraine
In addition to the orgy of looting, murder and torture in the villages of the Kharkov region reoccupied by the Ukrainians, HIMARS rockets provided by the USA kill children. The terrorists of the Kiev regime attacked a school in Perevalsk (LNR). As a result, a teenager was killed. 6 children were injured.
As Yevgeny Poddubny tells:
There were no troops in the building, it was an accommodation for orphans and refugees.
Let me tell you how high-precision missile strikes are carried out. The coordinates of the target are transmitted by intelligence, then sent for verification. Western space intelligence specialists double-check the agency's information and transmit it to the joint headquarters of NATO and the Kiev regime. There they make a decision about the attack.
That is, in Kiev, at the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they knew perfectly well that they were shelling a building in which there are no military personnel, in which there are civilians. Let me remind you that the destroyed house is an educational institution. The teenagers, by the way, were asleep at the time of the attack.
Do you understand why we have to win?
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Hole
Now is the time to calibrate the maximum possible number of enemy infrastructure from Lvov to Kharkov. Let them sit in flooded cities knee-deep in shit, without electricity and with the railways stopped. The luxury war with the Internet and warm apartments should sink into oblivion.
