Russian special military operation in Ukraine #25

Can the kinzhal, travelling at Mach 10, permanently destroy dams in western ukraine?

How fast does it take to repair transformer substations? Western pundits say transformers are extremely easy to repair without any special equipment.

Why is the kremenchug refinery not utterly destroyed?

Why are there no strikes against the west ukrainian electric grid? **** lutsk, **** khmelnitsky, **** rovno.

Airbornewolf wrote:Kiev sabotage cell neutralized in Kherson

https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/RF-neutralize-Kiev-terror-cell-in-Kherson:7

Well i would love to see this more.

Elimination of the Saboteurs will ensure proper order in the occupied territory, those in administration can work and might ensure smooth transition to Russian Federation.

I'm expecting Kadyrov's forces will handle mostly these along with Ukrainian SSO's.

Airbornewolf wrote:Kiev sabotage cell neutralized in Kherson

Ooooh how splendid!
'ol 'good Causacus proven methods!

JohninMK wrote:Seems logical

War Monitor
@WarfareReports
·
Sep 21
BREAKING: The "liberated" part of the Mykolaiv region is included in the Kherson region, and its residents will also take part in the referendum - RIA

I wonder if Russia will use this to justify taking the entirety of Mykolaiv once the results are in?

There is only one thing that makes me wonder.
The whole referendum situation is being presented as some kind of great success, while it is maybe not a minimal gain scenario, but hardly optimal.
The situation of Odessa and Transdnitria will remain unresolved this way, the same applies to Charkov and its surroundings.
That would be a maximal gain option and would be hard to accept anything less than that.
But ...

Why haven't the Russians counterattacked at all in liman, drobishevo, andreevka and kupyansk?

VARGR198 wrote:I wonder if Russia will use this to justify taking the entirety of Mykolaiv once the results are in?

BS. They said population of 404 would chose their fate and that is what they are implementing, in the places where nazi assess have been kicked out. Nikolaev will have its turn.

ALAMO wrote:There is only one thing that makes me wonder.
The whole referendum situation is being presented as some kind of great success, while it is maybe not a minimal gain scenario, but hardly optimal.
The situation of Odessa and Transdnitria will remain unresolved this way, the same applies to Charkov and its surroundings.
That would be a maximal gain option and would be hard to accept anything less than that.
But ...

The goals are defined, the schedule is not...

JohninMK wrote:

ALAMO wrote:There is only one thing that makes me wonder.
The whole referendum situation is being presented as some kind of great success, while it is maybe not a minimal gain scenario, but hardly optimal.
The situation of Odessa and Transdnitria will remain unresolved this way, the same applies to Charkov and its surroundings.
That would be a maximal gain option and would be hard to accept anything less than that.
But ...

There must be a very good chance that this is just phase 1 of New Russia, as they continue to roll south west (under public pressure of course) then it is likely there will be further referendums.

Not so sure about the North East, less strategic? that may just end up with what happens to the rest of Ukraine.

In addition to the areas currently in Russian control I think at the very least they will try to finish occupying the whole Donezk region (a part is missing to the north) and Zaporozhye (the Russians currently keep most of the territory to the south, but the regional capital is missing)

Furthermore I think they want to get to keep the whole coast on the Black Sea (Nikolayev and Odessa regions, also to have a direct connection to Transnistria and Gagauzia (separatist regions of Moldova)

For other regions, I think they will be remaking attempts for Kharkov and then Dnipropetrovsk

Then later maybe even sumi Poltava and Kropinski.

The rest, including Kiev, will be a separate matter.

Putin is now admitting openly what we have been saying for the last six months - the west wants Russia without Russians.

Hole wrote:
The lil´ mobilization proves that the Russian Government is close to the public. Had they mobilized some reservists at the end of last year after the west didn´t listen or shortly before the SMO started, what some experts here wanted, only a minority of the people would have supported it. The mood changed and now it can happen.

Russian government is always a little (or a lot) late to the demands of the people, that is how it has managed to consolidate a national conscience in Russia instead of destroying it. It has allowed people to see for themselves what the lies of the West really mean, instead of fighting the propaganda head-on in an effort that would have failed. When some commentators say that Russian government was naive in trusting the West but now it has rectified, they show they have no freakin clue about reality. The Western game plan is and has been clear for centuries to anyone with a functional brain.

Currently we see the bulk of the volunteer forces coming up. This will go on for another month or two, that´s why I get the impression that the mobilization was planned a while ago. Maybe before the SMO started? 

You can bet that it had been planed and studied in depth... there is nothing very new and highly surprising going on in 404, just the eternal struggle of the West against Russia in a new iteration. So SMO in its different phases and escalation scenarios needs to have been simulated by the state security non stop for the last 8 years, maybe even before.

Like another member stated, the bulk of the 300.000 guys will propably take over positions in Siberia or the Far East to free professionals for combat duties. Some of them will expand the rear services. Maybe more artillery coming?

They have to protect 100k sqkm of new territory against NATO, so they need more people to create new units and ensure "operational depth" in the SMO area, as Kartapolov indicated. I am not sure it will result in an immediate all out offensive, but clearly the amount of resources devoted to the task will increase substantially.

A last point, just a few days ago Martyanov mentioned a video from an SSO officer who stated that they got enough men to fulfill the tasks (the 3 D´s: De-Nazifiaction, De-Militarisation and Donbass). This means that the tasks changed. First of all Kherson and Zaporoshye will become part of Russia, but it seems that at least the Medvedev plan will become reality now. Personally I´m against it. Why give some land to Poland? Also Russia needs not only a landbrigde to Transdnistria but to Hungary and Slovakia, too. Both countries seem to be supportive if Russia (a majority of the Slovaks wants Russia to win against the UkroNazi regime), a direct connection to them would help to bring them to the right side.

Well, Poland taking a bite off 404 would achieve many things for Russia:
- Prove the cynicism of the West and partially legitimate (from PR perspective) that Russia does the same in the East
- Create tensions between ukraine and their mega-allies in Poland, reminding them how well they got along in the past
- Make clear to ukies that they were just the useful idiots of the West in this whole madness
- Get Poland to take care of the nazis in Lvov

The logical border that would need to be secured would be from Brest in the North to Transnistria in the South, be it as a part of Russia or as secured land closed to the NATO influence. And of course that should allow to connect to Hungary, ideally including pipelines

Numbers.
Currently there are some 50.000 regular russian soldiers in the fake state +  some 100.000 that are lurking around the operational area. Plus some 50 - 60.000 LPR and DPR forces. Plus 20 - 30.000 volunteers including Chechens. Plus some 10.000(?) Wagnerites. This means some 150.000 currently at the frontlines and shortly behind them + the 100.000 waiting in the wings (for NATO? the right moment to attack?). Soon there will be another 150.000 from the mobilization (+ supportive units).

Looks like the numerical superiority of the Nazi forces are mostly gone.

Those numbers look about right. The reinforcements together with the order to the MIC to speed up deliveries of weapons make me think indeed that this was planed all along and that the state is at least getting ready for the admission of new territories and a heavier involvement in the war.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
In addition to the areas currently in Russian control I think at the very least they will try to finish occupying the whole Donezk region (a part is missing to the north) and Zaporozhye (the Russians currently keep most of the territory to the south, but the regional capital is missing)

Furthermore I think they want to get to keep the whole coast on the Black Sea (Nikolayev and Odessa regions, also to have a direct connection to Transnistria and Gagauzia (separatist regions of Moldova)

For other regions, I think they will be remaking attempts for Kharkov and then Dnipropetrovsk

Then later maybe even sumi Poltava and Kropinski.

The rest, including Kiev, will be a separate matter.

Russia knows perfectly well that the escalation path is unavoidable both for the West and the ukie elites, for the first out of ideological reasons and outright investment in this struggle against Russia, for the later due to physical survival. Long range missiles will be provided, attacks against the reunited territories will be scaled up and Russia will always have a reason to attack further, in order to secure their newly acquired lands. It is obvious that the Kiev regime must be destroyed and the nazi mentality erased from 404, in order to Russia to be safe. Novorussia as a subject of the RF is rather clear to me, Galizia as said above can go where they please, some territories will be given back to Hungary and Romania, the rest can remain Ukraine or become Malorussia. But in any case it cannot constitute a threat for Russia.

From TASS

*
The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed more than 100 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU), as well as one American HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) in the KharkOv region. This was stated on Thursday by the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov. "In the village of Monachinovka, KharkOv region, the Russian Aerospace Forces defeated manpower and military equipment of units of the 93rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Up to 100 militants and up to 20 units of military equipment were destroyed, including one installation of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," he said.
Also, according to Konashenkov, as a result of the fire damage of units of the 14th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which made an unsuccessful attempt to force the Oskol River near the settlement of Dvurechnoye, Kharkov region, the enemy lost up to 30 people killed and six infantry fighting vehicles.



* The Russian military during a special operation in Ukraine hit three platoons of American-made M777 howitzers and a platoon of HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). This was announced on Thursday by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov. "The strikes of operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery hit the command post of the battalion of the 1st tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Veseleye of the Donetsk People's Republic, three artillery platoons of American howitzers M777 in the areas of Velyka Kostromka, Dnipropetrovsk region, Dneprovske and Yavkino, Nikolaev region and a platoon of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers near the village of Bereznegovatoe, Nikolaev region," he said.
According to him, the manpower and military equipment of units of the 14th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Gusinka, Kharkov region, the 46th airmobile brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belogorka, Kherson region, as well as 72 artillery units, manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 138 districts. Four depots of ammunition and weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed near the settlements of Monachinovka, Kharkov region, Poltavka and Olgovskoe, Zaporozhye region.



* Russian air defense systems shot down 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), intercepted 37 HIMARS and Vilkha multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), as well as seven American HARM anti-radar missiles. This was announced on Thursday by the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov. "In a day, air defense systems shot down 17 unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Berezovoe, Urozhaynoye, Stepnoye, Valeryanovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Ternovye Pody of the Nikolaev region, Maxim Gorky, Charivnoye, Stepnoe and Novaya Kakhovka of the Kherson region. In addition, 37 multiple rocket launchers were destroyed in the air, including 27 rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system in the areas of the settlements of Svatovo in the Lugansk People's Republic, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the city of Kherson, and 10 shells of "Alder" in the areas of the settlements of Makeevka, Volnovakha Donetsk People's Republic, Chervony Mayak, Kherson region and the city of Kherson. Seven American HARM anti-radar missiles were shot down in the air near Chernobaevka, Kherson region," the lieutenant general said.
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 295 aircraft, 155 helicopters, 2,035 unmanned aerial vehicles, 375 anti-aircraft missile systems, 5,073 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 842 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3,406 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 5,786 units of special military vehicles.



* Over 90 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 15 units of military equipment and more than 1,000 mortar ammunition were destroyed near the village of Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic as a result of strikes by high-precision air-launched missiles. This was announced on Thursday by the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov.
"High-precision air-launched missiles hit the temporary deployment point of the 17th Tank Brigade and the ammunition depot of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic. As a result of the strikes, more than 90 Ukrainian servicemen, 15 units of military equipment and over a thousand ammunition for mortars were destroyed," Konashenkov said.



* The nationalist ammunition depot was destroyed in the LuGansk People's Republic with the participation of the National Guard. This was reported to TASS on Thursday in the press service of the department. "During the performance of service and combat missions in the Lugansk People's Republic, the National Guard, while conducting aerial optical-electronic reconnaissance, discovered the installation of the BM-21 Grad MLRS and an ammunition depot. The coordinates of the targets were transferred for destruction by the artillery of the Russian Defense Ministry. The targets were destroyed," the statement says message.
The department noted that during the course of reconnaissance and search activities, military personnel and employees of the Russian Guard discovered eight caches and caches of weapons. "They contained 6 Fagot ATGM missiles, 7 grenade launchers, including 2 foreign-made RPGs and a Czech-made RShG grenade launcher, 118 rounds for them, more than 600 artillery shells, 18 anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, 26 hand grenades, about 22,000 ammunition for small arms," ​​the National Guard concluded.

LMFS wrote:
Russian government is always a little (or a lot) late to the demands of the people, that is how it has managed to consolidate a national conscience in Russia instead of destroying it. It has allowed people to see for themselves what the lies of the West really mean, instead of fighting the propaganda head-on in an effort that would have failed. When some commentators say that Russian government was naive in trusting the West but now it has rectified, they show they have no freakin clue about reality. The Western game plan is and has been clear for centuries to anyone with a functional brain.

I find this tactic actually brilliant.
No matter what the Russ governmental bodies, state owned media etc would have tried to do to persuade the people, it would probably backfire.
But here is Europe to the rescue!
First, they have confiscated the goods, money and other assets of the Russian oligarchy, that they have been busy hiding&transfering to the west for the last 30 years or so.
It couldn't do more pleasure to an ordinary Russian, who works his ass hard to get a 1000 euros a month, could it?
Then, they have accepted all the rats who were running out of Russia, only to spank their arses hard rather tnag saying thank you All the "stars" now are forced to dance t the music that is being played to them, and it took some weeks only when they have started to rush back. Only to entertain the Russian citizens, again
Last but not least, the freedom, democracy, and values loving ze Wezt unleashed a total civilization war against the very same Russian citizens, stripping them of the core human rights and applying the collective responsibility, that is actually denied in all the human rights documents the very same highly moral and humane countries signed
Nothing could have been better, and no Russian information/propaganda campaign could do better to the awareness of a typical Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov. Europe could not present itself more clear, as a proud ancestor carrying the torch of colonization, mass killings, and ages of exploitation of every single human being on this planet that was not lucky enough to be defended by a powerful nation, country or alliance.
Bravo! Bravo! Bis!

ALAMO wrote:

LMFS wrote:
Russian government is always a little (or a lot) late to the demands of the people, that is how it has managed to consolidate a national conscience in Russia instead of destroying it. It has allowed people to see for themselves what the lies of the West really mean, instead of fighting the propaganda head-on in an effort that would have failed. When some commentators say that Russian government was naive in trusting the West but now it has rectified, they show they have no freakin clue about reality. The Western game plan is and has been clear for centuries to anyone with a functional brain.

I find this tactic actually brilliant.
No matter what the Russ governmental bodies, state owned media etc would have tried to do to persuade the people, it would probably backfire.
But here is Europe to the rescue!
First, they have confiscated the goods, money and other assets of the Russian oligarchy, that they have been busy hiding&transfering to the west for the last 30 years or so.
It couldn't do more pleasure to an ordinary Russian, who works his ass hard to get a 1000 euros a month, could it?
Then, they have accepted all the rats who were running out of Russia, only to spank their arses hard rather tnag saying thank you All the "stars" now are forced to dance t the music that is being played to them, and it took some weeks only when they have started to rush back. Only to entertain the Russian citizens, again
Last but not least, the freedom, democracy, and values loving ze Wezt unleashed a total civilization war against the very same Russian citizens, stripping  them of the core human rights and applying the collective responsibility, that is actually denied in all the human rights documents the very same highly moral and humane countries signed
Nothing could have been better, and no Russian information/propaganda campaign could do better to the awareness of a typical Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov. Europe could not present itself more clear, as a proud ancestor carrying the torch of colonization, mass killings, and ages of exploitation of every single human being on this planet that was not lucky enough to be defended by a powerful nation, country or alliance.
Bravo! Bravo! Bis!

Evil always shows its true face in the end. All you need do is give Evil the opportunity and it will always shit where it eats, and even the dumbest of your herd has no choice but to admit the reality.

Why is mobilization needed when the issue seems to be that Ukraine can still galvanize hordes of lemmings to throw themselves willy nilly at the front?

You are assuming the mobilisation is a reaction to the Orc mass attack that occurred recently... the fact that the two rebel regions whose autonomy Russia is supporting have now decided to hold referendums on joining the Russian Federation that might have been the impetus for a change in phase of the operation from protecting the regions and grinding up the enemy to perhaps pushing the Orcs back during winter operations where thermal imagers and modern weapons and systems is going to make things very very interesting.

Why is Ukrainian logistical infrastructure largely intact?

They have certainly been working on their ammo and fuel dumps and also weapon caches, but a country the size of Ukraine with full HATO support means thousands of dumps and caches spread out all over the place which takes time to work through. Monitoring traffic, both physical and electronic you could work out where the ones in use are and as you hit them they have to use others that were just hidden so over time you work your way though destroying them, though they will be setting up new ones all the time.

The joint infrastructure like bridges and rail lines and roads is a question of the level of the conflict... at SMO you probably don't go hard core destroy everything as often as you can... but I suspect they are getting to that point with western escalation and continued military support of the enemy.

This winter will be hard for the west and the Ukraine...

If Ukraine's manpower is the problem, then stifling their ability to transport said manpower seems like a no brainer? Railways, bridges, roads etc. have, from what I can gather, been largely unaffected.

Letting them send troops to the front line means they can be killed more efficiently by air power and artillery on the front lines... taking them out further away has been happening occasionally... especially foreign units that don't seem keen to get too close to the front line and of course perhaps HATO elint locations inside the country might start getting targeted.

Finally, why is Zelensky and his cohort still walking freely? If Russia holds the current regime in Kiev as illegitimate, then the pretenders should be fair game. It seemed crazy that Zelensky could walk unimpeded around Izyum.

When this conflict steps up to proper war it makes sense to eliminate not just Zelensky... he is not a man Russia could get an agreement with that they could reasonably expect him to honour, so he is expendable from a Russian perspective... his tactics have been terrible so far so they likely don't want to remove him themselves but that might not always hold true. Ideally having the Ukrainians overthrow him would be best but would the replacements be hard core pro west nazis, or as the west calls moderate terrorists... plenty of government officials in Ukraine with US citizenship and western education that could be removed to help more normal or should I say more reasonable Ukrainians to step in and take over and negotiate in good faith. The oligarchs that stood by and supported Kiev violate both Minsk agreements and murder their own fellow citizens should also be directly targeted... homes and businesses and assets.

All the Ukrainian crops seem to be going to the EU for animal feed so I would also target them as well.

Russkie doesn't understand, why the mighty army can't deal with some punitive operation.

The British empire failed in Afghanistan 6 times if you count the most recent stay, the Soviets and all of HATO with the US at the lead also failed to prevail there... it is a combination of difficult fighting and not a compelling reason to keep taking casualties.

To be fair when the Soviets were there the west actively stirred up the enemy and supplied them, which was not the case when the west was in Afghanistan... in fact for the early part of the conflict Russia allowed material and equipment to be shipped through their territory to make things easier for them, but everyone forgets that now.

Whats the point of denazification if the nazis on top dont get denazified?

The Nazis at the top are in HATO.

Russian officers who got captured were probably retards who just panicked and ran and surrendered without much fight. Theyre worthless and shouldnt be traded in

You were crying about Ukrainian traitors that helped Russian forces being left at the hands of the Ukrainian nazis by the Russian forces retreating and now you think captured Russian soldiers are retards and are worthless?

Like for like is obviously something that Russia is attempting to avoid with any sort of assassination attempts, but I actually have to agree with resident genocider PapaDragon (only) when it comes to dealing with the Ukrainian elites. The more chaos that is sown to shatter the status quo in Ukraine and make it a literally non-functioning state, the more likely it'll force a compromise from Washington and Brussels... At least in theory... one could hope

the problem is getting as many as possible because once you start hitting the big dogs the rest will scatter like cockroaches, so it would have to be a very coordinated attack on as many top ranking nazis and americans and HATO officials as possible in one strike.

Wonder if the new 800 planes are 800 MiG-31Ks... Each with a warhead addressed personally...

All of this is of course predicated on the hope that Russia has genuinely had a true break with the West, and that it isn't some elaborate scheme to remodel the world economies. However, the longer the war drags on without any real, hard-set, attainable goals in sight the more I am doubtful of this. Global wars and forever wars are two types of war that have only ever been used to remodel ethnic, economic, social and religious strata for the worse.

The west has done its best to murder Russians.... look at how the US went apeshit over the suggestion that Putin was putting bounties on HATO soldiers in Afghanistan... now multiply that by them providing Igla and Verba and Kornet and Metis-M1 to destroy western aircraft and armour in the field and the west would go nuts.

Wasn't expecting an Indian street shitter scumbag to know any better.

Rule violation... have been warned before... so one month holiday for you. Any future violations of this kind if you decide to return and the holiday will be permanent.

A parable for these times using today's technology.

If you liked that video you can copy it by right clicking on the video and choosing to copy (the) video address, which in this case is: https://twitter.com/i/status/1572340065506033664 and then open this page:

https://en.loader.to/4/

In the URL box paste the video address, then in the next box down go to a video format... I usually use the 720p MP4 format, and click on the big download button.

It will open another tab with adverts, but just wait for the download and processing to take place, click on the close button for any advert that appears and then when it completes 100% click on the new download button and it should download the mp4 file to where ever you have set your downloads to go (mine goes to my downloads folder).

It also works on Youtube videos if you like collecting Youtube videos to watch offline like Combat Approved episodes or music videos etc etc.

Can the kinzhal, travelling at Mach 10, permanently destroy dams in western ukraine?

From the dry side... yes. (ie not the side with the big lake).

How fast does it take to repair transformer substations? Western pundits say transformers are extremely easy to repair without any special equipment.

Why is the kremenchug refinery not utterly destroyed?

Why are there no strikes against the west ukrainian electric grid? **** lutsk, **** khmelnitsky, **** rovno.

No attacks on gas pipelines either... destroying them early means more time to fix them or sort out alternatives for winter... doing it in the middle of winter will have rather more effect.

They need to emphasise more that they are being the nice guys but western escalations mean the gloves will come off... the west don't care but the Ukrainian people will really notice the difference.

And why do you ask us like we know the actual answers... we are only speculating like you are.

Ooooh how splendid!
'ol 'good Causacus proven methods!

Disappointing not to see a BTR there hammering the building with 14.5mm HMG rounds though....

I wonder if Russia will use this to justify taking the entirety of Mykolaiv once the results are in?

These referendums are not the end... they are the beginning.

The whole referendum situation is being presented as some kind of great success, while it is maybe not a minimal gain scenario, but hardly optimal.

I am sure Atlasclub and SS will tell you that this is 6 dimensional Chess being played by the Chess master Putin... it was clear that the Orcs were massing forces for an attack but the Russians didn't build up forces to meet them, they continued their tactics of the time which they knew would require withdrawals, so when the orcs attacked the Russians got to massacre large numbers of the enemy while groups of local residents got the shock of being occupied by Kievs murderers and thieves... the referendum was their idea and not Putins idea... they even managed to leave behind some T-80 gas guzzler tanks to use up more fuel for the orcs...

Obviously everything is going according to plan.

Once these regions are incorporated into Russian territory then the new 300km range American missiles the US is going to give Kiev eventually means to secure the borders of the new RF regions means pushing the orcs back 300km plus, which means taking most of the rest of Ukraine temporarily and eliminating military forces located there and setting up referendums for the rest of the territory with options that include neutrality but do not include relations with the west.

The situation of Odessa and Transdnitria will remain unresolved this way, the same applies to Charkov and its surroundings.

Operations to make the new RF territories safe will involve moving west and capturing those regions too.

The west wont back down so Russia can't leave any potential foothold for them to reinfect the area.

The lil´ mobilization proves that the Russian Government is close to the public.

Are we assuming the mobilisation is because of public wishes, or the orc cannon fodder attack... or was it because of the referendum.

I also agree you don't decide such things on the spur of the moment and this was planned.

They want combat veterans with specialist skills... pilots and ground support crews, artillery, drones, there are lots of specialists they might want or need... hell they might want NBC soldiers for chem or bio weapon provocations...

It looks like a absolute minimum plan. Without Odessa and removing Ukraine's access to the Sea, a connection with the Transnistria.
Ukraine will still have plenty of territory and access to the Black Sea. So it will still be very important for NATO etc.

We don't know an attack on Odessa was ever part of the plan, but once these regions hold a referendum they might shift up a gear and go for other goals... especially if the US keeps escalating the nature of weapons it is supplying.

Remember Putin keeps saying the longer you leave the peace agreement the worse the deal we offer... (for Kiev).

Not so sure about the North East, less strategic? that may just end up with what happens to the rest of Ukraine

North and Northeast can be the neutral bits...

Putin is now admitting openly what we have been saying for the last six months - the west wants Russia without Russians.

Which suggests there is no going back after this conflict is over... this is very important and also why Russia is looking to CSTO and BRICS and SCO and other organisations the west does not dominate.

When some commentators say that Russian government was naive in trusting the West but now it has rectified, they show they have no freakin clue about reality. The Western game plan is and has been clear for centuries to anyone with a functional brain.

It is funny, people in the west... especially liberal west slammed Trump for flip flopping and breaking deals, and being rude to allies but really his only crime was being open and honest and using social media too much (ie without a filter).

The US has been treating the EU and the world like that for centuries but they were better at hiding what they were doing so allow allies to save a little face as they got screwed again by their big ally.