Russian special military operation in Ukraine #26

famschopman wrote:My 2 cents, you need to stop bullying each other and find common ground on wanting Russia to succeed and be a bit more forgiving to other people's thoughts and concerns.

Some people are concerned on the current development and the loss of Russia lives in both communities and on the battleground. It's fair to say that those guys putting their lives on the line deserve - at least - proper support from the leadership and it's natural to be agitated when you see your people under fire while the opponent is seemingly allowed to make terrain or cross rivers relatively easily.

On the other hand, I also understand the sentiment that losing territory, or a battle doesn't immediately should cause significant concern. This is not a sprint but a marathon. And I think there is a really big chessboard and territory, and people are being quantified as pons to safely completed that marathon.

One interesting thing I did notice was a comment from someone here who pointed out - imho quite rightly - something along the line as "Russian leadership is anticipating a collapse of Europe and is carefully keeping their cards for further escalation". It's true. With NS1 and NS2 out, the playing field changed, significantly. So, it would be wise to be cautious sending in all your resources right now.

Today's European industry is extremely reliant on gas and will have to deal with the impact of this for the next ten years. Nuclear energy was abandoned under pressure by climate progressives, coal mines were closed and in France 50% of the reactors are actually offline due to corrosion issues and a general lack in maintenance. Rebuilding and transitioning this infrastructure will take at least a decade immediately impacting the competitive balance of these industries as well as impacting the general quality of life for all EU citizens. Things will start to turn for the worse very fast; and historically we know how economic circumstances can drive greater conflict.

The interesting thing here is that in terms of 'real war' none of the countries have (in comparison to WW1 and WW2) real trained armies or weaponry anymore. The majority was already sent into Ukraine, and they are all struggling to secure the funds; let alone built the stuff in time and with sufficient skilled engineers. So not sure in what form or context a conflict will end up. Maybe it will just end up as a French Revolution with citizens getting fed up with leadership.

Anyways, try to be a bit more kind to each other. I think everyone reacts in the best interest of Russia but with different perception.

Its not about losing territory. Its about not using superior firepower, tactical acumen, and air power to counterattack successfully and makeimportant advances too. If ukraine took izyum and kupyansk, but russia already captured artemovsk, soledar and maryinka, I would be completely ok with it. But russia is doing "positional battle" for 3 months already on the entire donbass and zaporozhye sector.

Im pissed that the resident "Never criticize MoD, trust the plan, youre not an expert, actually this was a 4D chess feint" types here were assuring us that ukraine cant muster enough troops to defend the donbass fortifications, let alone create successful large bridgheads against an enemy with supposedly excellent recon and artillery capabilities, because kalibr strikes, according to konashenkov were destroying troops behind the frontline by the tens of thousands.

The whole "positional battle" reporting sounds more and more like an excuse that russia simply sucks at offensives and is a total failure at achieving its own goals of liberating DNR.

Also Im mostly dooming because russia cant oblitarate ukrainian bridgeheads in a spectacular fashion like how the ukrainians did against the russians in belogorovka.

Mir wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:When will first mobilized troops reach the frontline?

One day after they have received the required training.

Why not send the existing pre-mobilization russian army and use the mobilized to replace it in nonukrainian theatres? Russia was only using 190000 troops out of a standing army of 300000-400000, allegedly.

Geroman
Forwarded from
Donbass Devushka
State Duma deputies will adjust their work schedule and move the regional week from October 3 to a later date in order to make all the necessary decisions following the results of referendums in the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Viacheslav Volodin said.

It was proposed to hold plenary sessions of the State Duma on October 3 and 4.

LMFS wrote:Pepe Escobar
Forwarded from
ASB Military News
We take the words of Kadyrov very seriously, his statements tend to have a weird timing. When he says something, it often is not YET the reality in the moment. But eventually, things happen exactly as he says.

Kadyrov, while being an interesting character himself - does have something none of us do: a direct line with Putin and Shoigu. The guy does not talk out of his ass.

Based on Kadyrov’s statements, we made the decision to not watch the battles day by day. What is happening now does not matter. The positions that are currently held by Ukrainians are highly likely temporary for them.

Wait for the Russian Armed Forces to build up their numbers and hardware, that is when the war starts. As Kadyrov said, things will go from 0 to 100 once the Russian Armed Forces enter the battlefield in the proposed numbers.

It is simply a waste of time and effort to focus on positional battles at the moment. Ukraine’s offensive has died one way or another. Their only activity now is near Krasnyy Lyman.


In other words, take your mental break from these events while you can 🥱

I actually agree with this sentiment.

Podlodka already covered this but I repost the information directly from MoD's TG, I just find it easier to read in this format

Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine ️ (28.09.2022)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue a special military operation.

As a result of a massive fire strike on the temporary locations of the 14th and 92nd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Dvurechnaya, Kondrashovka and Petrovka in the Kharkiv region, more than 150 servicemen and 12 armored vehicles were eliminated.

A high-precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces near the city of Kharkiv hit the production halls of an armored plant, which contained more than 90 tanks and other armored combat vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As a result of the failure of the offensive of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Krasnolimansk direction, the losses of the 66th and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 70 people killed, four tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and three armored vehicles.

The Russian Aerospace Forces ' strikes hit the temporary deployment points of the Chaika tactical group from the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the island of Khortytsia, as well as the 56th motorized infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region. More than 100 military personnel and 20 pieces of military equipment were eliminated.

As a result of a high-precision strike , 10 field artillery pieces, including two American M777 howitzers, four Olkha multiple launch rocket launchers and 15 automobile vehicles were destroyed at the equipment repair point on the territory of the Zaporozhye EnergoMekHomplekt plant.

In the area of the city of Nikolaev, a massive fire strike hit the temporary deployment points of the 28th mechanized and 59th motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as units of foreign mercenaries. More than 90 military personnel and militants, as well as 18 units of military equipment, were eliminated.

The strikes of operational-tactical and army aviation, rocket troops and artillery hit five AFU control points in the areas of Peremoga, Kharkiv region, Slavyansk, Bogdanovka, Donetsk People's Republic, Novonikolayevka, Gulyai-pole, Zaporizhia region, as well as 75 artillery units, manpower and military equipment in 167 districts. Destroyedfour warehouses of ammunition and rocket and artillery weapons in the areas of Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, Kolomiytsevo, Dnipropetrovsk region and Prilimanskoe, Odessa region. A radar station of the Ukrainian S-300 surface-to-air missile system was destroyed near the settlement of Veseloe in the Mykolaiv region.,

Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Su-24 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near the village of Gusarovka, Kharkiv region.

Russian air defense systems have shot down five unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka, Gorlovka, Maryinka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Pavlovka of the Zaporizhia region, and Yevgenovka of the Mykolaiv region. Two Tochka-U ballistic missiles were intercepted near the settlements of Kazachya Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast and Bolshye Kopani in Kherson oblast. In addition, near the city of Donetsk, the settlements of Bryanka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Novaya Kakhovka and Veseloe of the Kherson region were destroyed in the air.seven rounds of multiple launch rocket systems "HIMARS"and " Alder".

Since the beginning of the special military operation, 305 aircraft, 155 helicopters, 2,099 unmanned aerial vehicles, 377 anti-aircraft missile systems, 5,143 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 851 multiple launch rocket vehicles, 3,433 field artillery and mortar guns, and 5,963 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

#Ministry of Defense #Russia #Ukraine @mod_russia

A good hunting day for RF armed forces, and still people need to think what would happen if Russia's 200+ tactical bombers, 200+ multirole fighters and dozens of Tu-22M3 really start using heavy bombs in Kharkov and Krasny Liman

RusMoD
“ As a result of the failure of the offensive of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Krasnolimansk direction”

Rybar


So according to Russian MOD ukrop offensive is a failure while Rybar map suggest an almost complete encirclement, evidently someone is full of it, we shall find out soon enough.

New video from BB

Serberus wrote:RusMoD


So according to Russian MOD ukrop offensive is a failure while Rybar map suggest an almost complete encirclement, evidently someone is full of it, we shall find out soon enough.

My money is on the Russian army. There has been a lot of hysteria in the Russian internet because of the Kharkov debacle and a certain "encirclement psychosis", as I pointed out in last night briefing, those sources near the front are calmer

What I find interesting is that after days of silence, the official briefing mentions Krasny Liman

"in the Krasnolimansk direction, the losses of the 66th and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 70 people killed, four tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and three armored vehicles."

an encouraging sign, by the way checking my entry of 22 September this means at least five different brigades are involved in the fighting. So we can estimate they have commited about 15,000 bayonets to the fighting.

Two days ago the mood was jubilant, but as new waves of zombies attack we go from one crisis to the next one. So far they are holding...

limb wrote:

Mir wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:When will first mobilized troops reach the frontline?

One day after they have received the required training.

Why not send the existing pre-mobilization russian army and use the mobilized to replace it in nonukrainian theatres? Russia was only using 190000 troops out of a standing army of 300000-400000, allegedly.

Who is to say they aren't? 300,000 is a lot of people to move around. Throw in logistics, getting supply and housing and all that. Logistics is a tyrant in war. You want to win a war then you best only go at the speed of your logistics train

limb wrote:
Also Im mostly dooming because russia cant oblitarate ukrainian bridgeheads in a spectacular fashion like how the ukrainians did against the russians in belogorovka.

That's just the problem limb

If you don't see it, it hasn't happened.

Again, the Ukrainians are waging a media war. Every single piece of destroyed Russian equipment or casualty they will film and publicise. Embelish and augment it if neccessary like in the same belogorovka, to make it seem like a greater disaster than it is. Photo the same tank from different angles, torch their own written-off Tunguskas and pass them off as Russian, whatever.

Russia doesn't do anything in that field though. It's simply not fussed, because it knows the war won't be won on internet forums or in European societies.

But it's enough to listen to what the Ukrainians themselves are talking about. Even in the Western media. Mercouris highlighted an article 2 days ago where a Ukrainian soldier talking about losses to journalists of the NYT or some such mentioned that in one attack recently they lost 50 men in 2 hours. And that's just 1 section of 1 front, from among 1 branch of forces.
If even 10% of the reports and rumours floating around are true, then Ukrainian losses were horrific in Kherson, still are horrific in Kherson, they are horrific in Krasnyj Liman, they are appalling everywhere.
And you bring up that doctored image of belogorovka? There are belogorovka's all around the front, all the time.

And would not Oct 4, when Putin speaks to the Duma, be about two weeks from the start of the mobilization? Yeah, I think we will be seeing a major operation in early to mid October that will put things right.

Serberus wrote:RusMoD
“ As a result of the failure of the offensive of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Krasnolimansk direction”

Rybar
// removed the image

So according to Russian MOD ukrop offensive is a failure while Rybar map suggest an almost complete encirclement, evidently someone is full of it, we shall find out soon enough.

Now that is the interesting thing. Whether it is a failure or not depends on the goals and maybe not on territorial gains. And if the goals are x % of attacking forces dead / injured / weakened then the defenders traded territory for a weakened attacking force.

In the short term that might feel like a failure but if you play the long game and keep weakening the opponent there comes a point where you can (more) easily advance in return. But nobody knows the strategy or specific goals, so everything is guesswork.

But I think the hard part is to accept that people are seen as resources to achieve a goal and casualties are basically collateral damage.

caveat emptor wrote:

Lapain wrote:

Kinda breaks the idea that Ukr. are facing with horrendous losses, when in reality they are still well equipped.

Strangely enough, no Shahed O'clock in that sector. And these guys are yet to show up anywhere.

Yak-130 never did CAS in real life. It was only discussed as possibility. It is a training aircraft and it will stay that. Especially against opponent that has enough AD assets, like Ukrainians do.

Only videos I have seen of yak-130 in combat is Myanmar. If Russia used yak-130 the west would be all over it saying Russia has no aircraft left and having to use a trainer aircraft. Russia has plenty of Su-25, Su-24, mi-35, mi-28 and ka-52 to do what the yak-130 could do.

Big_Gazza wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:I personally think no nukes will ever be used this would only further demonize Putin and Russia and play into the hands of the west as big bad Russia worse than Satan image. It would also look very desperate and be seen as Russia throwing it's toys out of the pram very much like what USA did in Japan by using weapons of mass destruction on civilians. Although I do think we might see FOAB  or other heavier bombs being used, and more heavy bombers being used Tu-22M3, Tu-95, Tu-160. If Russia was to use nukes it would be far more useful using in western Ukraine than on the doorstep of newly annexed areas. Nuking western Ukraine would be on the doorstep of countries helping Ukraine and would impede on supplies into Ukraine and Russia will most likely never annex these areas so once the land is contaminated nothing will be able to be planted and the pro Ukrainian and pro neo Nazi civilians will suffer over time with various health issues or the land vacated and those Ukrainians move into Europe and cause Europe more refugee crisis. The no man's land would create another buffer zone. But as I said I highly doubt any nukes will be sent. Maybe the west will use one on civilians and then blame Russians that more likely to happen than Russia using nukes. That's my 10 pence worth lol.

Russia has made itself abundantly clear on this point.  If the survival of the Russian state is in imminent danger from invasion by massed enemy conventional forces, they are prepared to use nukes to defend the state and nation.

Ukraine simply doesn't pass that threshold, no matter how insane or unhinged they become.

NATO might, if the US were to fully mobilise on the European continent, but the chances of that happening are IMHO (almost) non-existent.

I agree the nuke threat wasn't aimed at Ukraine as per se but at NATO and any foolish plans of intervention, of course Ukrainian troops would be de facto caught up in the casualties.

Serberus wrote:RusMoD
“ As a result of the failure of the offensive of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Krasnolimansk direction”

Rybar


So according to Russian MOD ukrop offensive is a failure while Rybar map suggest an almost complete encirclement, evidently someone is full of it, we shall find out soon enough.

According to unconfimred reports Torske was taken by AFU and they amass troops to take Zarichne soon. So Liman is actually in a physical encirclement. No real counteroffensive so far...numbers of russian casualitis are rising. If AFU take Liman thousands of Russian soldiers will go in captivity (on russian soil in a few days!)...and maybe due to Ukronazi politeness a lot russian soldiers will lose their balls. All according to 7D Kremlin masterplan!!!

Come on copium guys! This is not normal and not according to a plan! Either Russia has no reserves or the General Staff is made up of morons.

The reports from RUSSIAN side not Ukronazi side are unconfimred thus so far. Let's hope and pray they are not true.

Podlodka77 wrote: .
Poles, who else...and their ideas..
28.09.2022
Military observation
Polish newspaper: Until it's too late, Ukraine must urgently deploy western tanks

On the last week, Kiev turned to the West with a request to present a modern armored vehicle that would allow VSU to fight more effectively with Russia. So, before it's too late, Ukraine must urgently put up western tanks.
'elensky's appeals to the USA and Europe are also supported by the Polish observer Petr Medinsky, who published an article on this topic on the Defense 24 portal and believes that Kiev must receive Western tanks "now or never".
The Polish media argue that Ukraine now more than ever needs not only financial and moral support, but also Western-made tanks. The impetus for the United States and NATO countries to finally decide on the supply of armored vehicles, in the author's opinion, should be the partial mobilization announced in Russia.

Last week, the Ukrainian authorities made another request for tanks, but this time they demanded more modern combat vehicles, which, according to Kiev, could fundamentally change the situation at the front. As 'elensky stated, the supplied weapons are no longer enough to protect Ukraine.
When asked what weapons Kiev needs most, along with air defense, he listed HIMARS rocket systems, artillery and tanks.
But the is that, according to journalists from the American Bloomberg problem agency and representatives of other Western media, the United States and Europe do not intend to increase military support for Kiev to a significant extent. And first of all, this concerns the supply of modern heavy weapons

As I said earlier the west have plenty of tanks they could send to Ukraine AMX-30, challenger 1, Abrams, M-60 for example but they haven't. Either they don't want to or that they believe it's a waste of time and won't turn the tide. Or maybe they are tired of seeing everything they send end up destroyed or maybe a cost issue. But what is certain they aren't sending high end tanks to Ukraine. And the fact zekensky is begging for armour shows exactly what's happening on front line in regards to Ukrainian armour.

Serberus wrote:So according to Russian MOD ukrop offensive is a failure while Rybar map suggest an almost complete encirclement, so someone is full of it, we shall find out soon enough.

What can MoD know about the war they are waging, compared to some internet outift?

As I said earlier the west have plenty of tanks they could send to Ukraine AMX-30, challenger 1, Abrams, M-60 for example but they haven't. Either they don't want to or that they believe it's a waste of time and won't turn the tide. Or maybe they are tired of seeing everything they send end up destroyed or maybe a cost issue. But what is certain they aren't sending high end tanks to Ukraine. And that fact zekensky is begging for armour shoes exactly what's happening on front line in regards to Ukrainian armour. [/quote]



Taddei bro, it's not time for the two of us to write because we don't know anything. A little while ago, "General" Azi called from the front and wrote that Russia "has no reserves and that the Russian army is led by complete idiots". Please, let's not waste the generals' precious time.

Podlodka77 wrote:
Taddei bro, it's not time for the two of us to write because we don't know anything. A little while ago, "General" Azi called from the front and wrote that Russia "has no reserves and that the Russian army is led by complete idiots". Please, let's not waste the generals' precious time.

I remind you on that bunch of shit you wrote when Liman fell and the Russian soldiers are paraded as a trophy.

famschopman wrote:But I think the hard part is to accept that people are seen as resources to achieve a goal and casualties are basically collateral damage.

Like it or not, that is how the calculus works and that is why nobody in its right mind should like war. The state needs to be in conditions to trade casualties, both civilian and military, and work for the best outcome of the whole. The difference between predatory and legitimate leadership is the end goal towards each one is working, be it destroy countries for own power lust or defend them through war when needed. So no, there is no cynicism in military exchanging victims in one place to reduce them in other, just the need that arises from aggression.

That wouldn't change anything. They are not trained for western tanks and they would lack ammo/support.

Would be good for Russia however. They would destroy NATO tanks and reduce their stocks.