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Arkanghelsk wrote:JohninMK wrote:
Reporting by Boris Rozhin (Colonel Cassad)
Russian airstrikes are reported in the Kharkov region.
The enemy continues to try to advance to the north of Kupyansk, and also continues to try to break through the front in Oskol and, threatening to encircle Krasny Liman, force our troops to withdraw from Drobyshevo, Krasny Liman and Yampol. Our troops are fighting off attacks, but the enemy is launching reinforcements. Time is now playing against him: when the Russian army receives reinforcements, the enemy will be forced to go on the defensive, so now he will try to squeeze everything that is still possible from success in Balakleya, although it is already obvious that the offensive is running out and each subsequent advance is becoming more and more expensive. The task of our troops at the current stage is to hold key positions, fully stabilize the front, replenish/rotate units on the front line and launch a counteroffensive in November-December.
Ispan
- this is not making sense
So we will go on the attack in November and December... without foliage for cover, in white
While these Ukros will dig in , and be in trenches for December...
Making the task of Russian army that much harder
The Ukrainians will do what they did in every other engagement, dig holes and stay put
They should not be allowed to entrench before winter
Hello.
I do not write these reports, I just... report them.
I pick a sample of analysis of people that over the years have proven knowledgeable and trustworthy. I do not always agree with the opinions quoted but I try to portray different points of view, from doomers like Strelkov to hooray patriots like Yura Sumy.
The reason that I keep this war journal is because none of them is as knowledgeable as myself in military matters, they all have blind spots. I am a mere civilian, but if I have two career military officers from the Spanish army and some intelligence analyst praising me and believing I had been in the military, then I am doing something right.
More or less I am in agreement with Cassad. I tend to publish materials which I consider correct or at least informative.
About your objections. I was faced with similar questions in the comments of the blog, they are worth reading, in many cases my readers do the homework for me.
I think Cassad is right that mobilization and preparing new units and the logistics will take weeks. Everybody for some reason, drawing on the historical experience expect a lull during the autumn, due to the rains and mud.
Except that in this campaign there was no lull during the spring time. As it has been stated repeatedly during all these years, with the modern roads and tracked vehicles operations can take place in mud. It will complicate things but will not halt war.
What prevents the Russian army from attacking in autumn is lack of forces, simply. Still, if the Ukrowehrmacht is calculating the Russians can only attack come winter they will be disappointed, there will be some limited offensive in the coming weeks, simply to not allow the Ukros to consolidate and dig in.
I was always skeptical about the value of foliage. Not a protection from thermal cameras in tanks. Once the leaves fall it will be easier for the cheap drones with optical cameras to perform recon and artillery spotting.
In the end all these factors, forest cover, mud, rain don't really amount to much.
Also, you overrate the value of field positions, let's call them earthworks. Digging trenches in autumn under the rain is complicated, trenches need constant maintenance, revetment with wood and drainage. I really don't see a problem about trenches, they are dug mainly for protection value, not as a fighting position. Deep dugouts serve as a refuge, to minimize the casualties from artillery, but neither trench lines nor foxholes constitute a serious obstacle. What prevents the armored breakthrough we dream of and maneuver warfare is the terrain, impassable obstacles like the forests, lakes and creeks. Followed by the minefields and antitank missiles.
The war has degenerated into positional warfare because the Russians are unwilling and unable to pay the price of a textbook rupture of a trench line. In some places, like the fortified urban areas of the Donbass front, they are nearly impregnable and there's no question of an easy breakthrough.
Russian tactic its extremely slow and plodding, pragmatically plowing with shells a fortified position until all the bunkers have been reduced to ruins, and then pushing with tanks to deal with any surviving machineguns and only then infantry advance to do mopping up. This is very slow and wasteful of ammunition but it saves lives and armored vehicles.
But that aside, the ukros can't fortify anywhere else like those fortresses that were built over eight years. Yes, they might have enough time to dig a continuous line of trenches in the Belgorod front between the two rivers. Excavate dugouts with layers of logs and more to the point, fortify in the villages and towns.
But it the end it all comes down to the forces that hold fortifications. No amount in digging nor any extense static line will contain the Russians. Everything is in the books. Concentrate a few hundred artillery pieces, one for every 10 meters of front, make a high intensity "hurricane" bombardment of a few hours, targetting the whole depth of the enemy position (not just the first and second line of trenches, but also reserves, artillery and command posts) and then push forward with masses of tank and infantry to breach the line and then feed in reserves and order them to drive as fast and as deep in the enemy rear as they can, enveloping the enemy or forcing it to retreat before being encircled. Even I, a civilian that hasn't gone to staff college, could draw an offensive plan by copy pasting from history books. You don't even need aviation for that, so the complains about aviation being useless because air defense are moot. Long range rockets make the artillery preparation even more effective.
Static fortifications are of no use, the attacker has only to concentrate in one chosen point overwhelming force. Neither barbed wire, nor trenches, minefields, machine guns neither antitank missiles are an insurmountable obstacle. They all can be countered.
Summing it up: the stalemate of positional warfare is not as much due to the strength of positions but due to the balance of forces between the contending armies, neither side has the strength advantage to break through.
The difficulty for the Russians is that due to US surveillance satellites they can't conceal their concentration of forces for a rupture and the enemy will always in reinforce the threatened sector. This also happened in the First World War, aviation observation perpetuated the stalemate because its reconnaissance almost aways revealed the enemy intentions. Surprise was achievable but it needed an elaborate deception plan.
So how to break through? Simple enough. Bring in more troops and it will not matter if the enemy is dug in. With equal numbers, a local concentration and superiority for the rupture can be achieved. With superior numbers you don't even need surprise, just attack at several places and the enemy will not have enough reserves to prevent a breakthrough somewhere.
Last edited by Ispan on Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:44 pm; edited 2 times in total
in Zaporozhye region for - 98.19% (data from 18% of votes)
may head the new embassy, Vedomosti reports. @kedmi
