Russian special military operation in Ukraine #30

zepia wrote:In summary, Gonzalo thinks NATO is preparing to go for Belarus and/or western Ukraine.

Also, yesterday some Ukrainian politicians submit a draft resolution to rada for recognized Belarus as "Occupied by Russia".
Sound like they're making a legal leeway for that.

VdqR-XMvbS4

Not credible that NATzO would invade Belorus. There is no evidence of sufficient forward force deployment. As for
western Ukria, well that is just voluntary so it would require little effort.

So the likely story is that NATzO is going to make a move to grab western Ukria to make sure that Russia does not
grab it and clean it up.

zepia wrote:In summary, Gonzalo thinks NATO is preparing to go for Belarus and/or western Ukraine.

Also, yesterday some Ukrainian politicians submit a draft resolution to rada for recognized Belarus as "Occupied by Russia".
Sound like they're making a legal leeway for that.

The question of this war is on which side will Kiev fall?

Of course, the Donbass and the southeast is too far from Poland and this is given up.

Also the West Ukraine is on the same Polish border and Russia cannot do anything there, besides these are Catholic and Russophilic areas that never belonged to Russia until after WWII

So the whole question is who gets Kiev

For Russia that NATO remains in kyiv is as bad as if it is in Donbass, the distance from Kiev to Moscow is only a few hundred km in a straight line.
Therefore, Russia needs to cut off Ukraine from the Zhitomir area in the North, to Transinstria, and for that, it first has to go from Kherson to Transinstria, isolating Odessa.

In addition, Poland always wants to seize Belarus and have its "Greater Poland" or at least take the western part of Belarus (Grodno and Brest oblast), so this also further distances Kaliningrad from Russia, which is the real objective of the USA, that is to say expel russia from the Baltic Sea

Amazing helmet-cam footage of a Russian pilot ejecting from a Su-25 that was damaged by MANPADs.
What is startling is the low altitude. It took him no more than 10 seconds to hit the ground. But the ejection system worked fine and guaranteed his safety.

Weather and landscape looks like it was from earlier in the year - so not a new crash, and the fact that this footage has been published strongly suggests that he was picked up safe and sound.

https://t.me/vicktop55/7813

AMCXXL wrote:The question of this war is on which side will Kiev fall?

Of course, the Donbass and the southeast is too far from Poland and this is given up.

Also the West Ukraine is on the same Polish border and Russia cannot do anything there, besides these are Catholic and Russophilic areas that never belonged to Russia until after WWII

So the whole question is who gets Kiev

For Russia that NATO remains in kyiv is as bad as if it is in Donbass, the distance from Kiev to Moscow is only a few hundred km in a straight line.
Therefore, Russia needs to cut off Ukraine from the Zhitomir area in the North, to Transinstria, and for that, it first has to go from Kherson to Transinstria, isolating Odessa.

In addition, Poland always wants to seize Belarus and have its "Greater Poland" or at least take the western part of Belarus (Grodno and Brest oblast), so this also further distances Kaliningrad from Russia, which is the real objective of the USA, that is to say expel russia from the Baltic Sea

The most NATO will get is Western Ukraine. Not Kiev, not Odessa, and certainly not Belarus.

Russia has already started mobilization and organized STAVKA.
The US has not built up in any appreciable way in either Poland or Romania.

Giving up Kiev is needless, Russia can advance to it within a couple of days as it did when the war broke out.

While giving up Odessa will not be allowed; as it would mean the encirclement of the Russian garrison in Pridnestrovie.

Broski wrote:

par far wrote:The Americans have just sent their 101st Airborne units to Romania and Poland.

A few questions:

Do you think they will try to create a buffer zone in western Ukraine and try to take Odessa?

Unless Ironman is coming along with them, they will suffer the same fate as the nazis and mercenaries in Yavoriv.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack

On the one hand, I would not write them like a bad check like I do anything in the Ukronazi army.  They are well trained, well equipped, well led, professional killers so DO NOT TAKE THEM LIGHTLY.  Now before you smash the dislike button and add me to your foes list there is another hand and here it is. . . .

On the other hand, as well led, trained, and armed as they are, like any other airborne force there is only so much they can do.  Like 9th Company, they will hold their hill to the the last man.  However, as tough as they are they are still slave to the tyrant of war, logistics.  Their greatest victory at Bastogne (where they told the Germans, who asked them to surrender, NUTS!) only happened because Patton's troops pulled out of one battle and marched three days to liberate them and because the weather changed and the US was able to get their air power up.  In Ukraine, they would not enjoy air support, they would find themselves cut off, and they would be the recipient of guided bombs, drones, and artillery bombardment.  It would be a devestating and inexcusable loss of men and material and could cause the American public to turn against the war.

Unfortunately for all of us living in the northern hemisphere, if the 101 is in Ukraine its only a matter of time before the nukes start flying.

There will be no nukes from either side. Everything but the kitchen sink, yes, but no nukes. Nukes are like a dose of the clap, there's no such one as 'one case'.

Though our military branches are infected with terrible leadership and a broken NCO system and a growing decay in standards, our soldiers are still damn good. No they most certainly are a force to be reckoned with and the Russians dont underestimate them.

I wonder what it would be like if our military was as it was at the end of the cold war. Where we didnt go play policeman in the mideast to the extent we did, and our developments through the coming decades were still focused on peer threats. Nobody would be able to touch us. We used to be great once. America must atone for its pride and hubris. But I hope we repent and God and our neighbors across the globe can forgive us. And we can truly help others and respect sovereignty and help make other nations as great as we once were.

auslander wrote:There will be no nukes from either side. Everything but the kitchen sink, yes, but no nukes. Nukes are like a dose of the clap, there's no such one as 'one case'.

Again, I hope you are right.  As for the 101, 82nd, or a carrier group, I think those are -at least for now- shows of force and propaganda.  The scare is if this thing escalates.  I don't see the US sending in the 101 because as I said in my last post they would be mauled.  They would do their damndest but they would be annihilated as they would be going at it almost alone and they'd be wiped out as they would not have the coordination of forces that has made them successful historically.  Airborne forces are meant to rapidly seize and hold an objective until the main force arrives.  I have no doubt they could seize an objective, but their support would never arrive and they'd die to a man

I have to be honest. With the build back better, WEF tier bureaucrats and politicians alluding to a great reset and their existential fear of losing in Ukraine I am a little troubled. Part of me worries that there are those who might think nuclear catastrophe would depopulate and force reset society, and that they and their clique might be the ones to "build back better" afterwords. With how bizarre things have gotten, I wonder about this wt times.

auslander wrote:There will be no nukes from either side. Everything but the kitchen sink, yes, but no nukes. Nukes are like a dose of the clap, there's no such one as 'one case'.

With all due respect to the written words, because no sane person wants a nuclear war - I still disagree.
As long as there are nuclear weapons, there is also a danger of their use, and there is a greater danger of being used by someone who has already used them (we all know who that country is) than Russia being the first to use nuclear weapons.
At the beginning of this conflict, I didn't even think that the West would intervene so brazenly in the conflict, so the West did. If this conflict continues, there are all the tendencies that it will expand by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, and then who knows what will happen. Russia is one of the two sides in this conflict that still has common sense, but even that has a shelf life.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Broski wrote:

par far wrote:The Americans have just sent their 101st Airborne units to Romania and Poland.

A few questions:

Do you think they will try to create a buffer zone in western Ukraine and try to take Odessa?

Unless Ironman is coming along with them, they will suffer the same fate as the nazis and mercenaries in Yavoriv.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack

On the one hand, I would not write them like a bad check like I do anything in the Ukronazi army.  They are well trained, well equipped, well led, professional killers so DO NOT TAKE THEM LIGHTLY.  Now before you smash the dislike button and add me to your foes list there is another hand and here it is. . . .

On the other hand, as well led, trained, and armed as they are, like any other airborne force there is only so much they can do.  Like 9th Company, they will hold their hill to the the last man.  However, as tough as they are they are still slave to the tyrant of war, logistics.  Their greatest victory at Bastogne (where they told the Germans, who asked them to surrender, NUTS!) only happened because Patton's troops pulled out of one battle and marched three days to liberate them and because the weather changed and the US was able to get their air power up.  In Ukraine, they would not enjoy air support, they would find themselves cut off, and they would be the recipient of guided bombs, drones, and artillery bombardment.  It would be a devestating and inexcusable loss of men and material and could cause the American public to turn against the war.

Unfortunately for all of us living in the northern hemisphere, if the 101 is in Ukraine its only a matter of time before the nukes start flying.

They are a largely green unit like most of the Russian and Ukrainian army was before the war. Their WW2 record accomplishes an espirit de corps but then again so does it for the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division.

They are well trained and equipped but no different to a VDV division; just smaller. They probably have less heavy weapons as well. But I'm not well-informed.

It's a rapid tripwire force that the US can use to occupy ground and deny it to Russian advances. But if they decide to advance to Odessa then Russia will meet them - they're not going to abandon Pridnestrovie.

What Shoigu and Austin discussed I don't know. Hopefully a plan to avoid that situation.

As to Petreus speaking only for himself - I have my doubts. He may be assigned a Medvedev or Kadyrov role, or he may be voicing what the Pentagon won't. It was the Pentagon just a few days ago which opined that if the Ukraine loses the current world order will come crashing down.

No meter Ukraine to NATO. That ends like Idleb or Al-Tanf. In addition, there is the nuclear power plant with what you can build dirty bombs or even nuclear weapons. That would be a stunning trouble outside of NATO where NATO can say at any time, we are not.

In 10 years the terrorists come back from this dirt hole, shoot the latest weapons towards Moscow and NATO says they were not. Nobody will have the eggs in Moscow then to strike NATO.

Moscow stopped the tanks in 2014. If it makes the mistake a second time we go under! Leave no land of NATO. She has to get the face! Only pain lets it shy away!

Some Ukro beggars... er, officers turned POWs

auslander wrote:There will be no nukes from either side. Everything but the kitchen sink, yes, but no nukes. Nukes are like a dose of the clap, there's no such one as 'one case'.

I would not be surprised for a minute if the US arranged Ukraine to have a dirty bomb to terrorize Crimea, Ukraine could even make it themselves with materials from their nuclear reactors.

What would Russia do in response, nuke Kiev? I doubt it.

/EDIT

Much to my surprise, this article on the same topic was just posted on Zerohedge.
Seems Russia are worried about a possible dirty bomb attack from Ukraine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-new-strike-leaves-15-million-ukrainians-without-power-phased-blackouts-kiev

From this on, the decision when Ukrops will have weekends will be decided by Surovikin.

Erk wrote:

auslander wrote:There will be no nukes from either side. Everything but the kitchen sink, yes, but no nukes. Nukes are like a dose of the clap, there's no such one as 'one case'.

I would not be surprised for a minute if the US arranged Ukraine to have a dirty bomb to terrorize Crimea, Ukraine could even make it themselves with materials from their nuclear reactors.

What would Russia do in response, nuke Kiev? I doubt it.

As far as I can see in these 8 months, Russia is still calm, there is no panic and there is no rush. Those on the other side are in a hurry.
In such cases, if such a bomb were to be deployed and a large number of civilians were killed, then there is no doubt that it would cause enormous anger among the Russian people. In that case, and according to the event, the Russian government would have to react adequately. We'd better not speculate about that, because it certainly wouldn't go without an answer.
A nuclear attack on Kiev is dangerous primarily because of the radiation that could go in the direction of Belarus and Russia. I strongly doubt that the Russians would use Topol-M or Yars, which have up to 800 kilotons or maybe even a whole megaton, for such an attack, but tactical nuclear warheads with less destructive effect would be used for such a thing.

There are no Americans citizens in Odessa, as far as I know, and I strongly doubt that the Russians would look favorably on several hundred thousand Russians citizens in Odessa falling under the American boot.
What are you people writing about, what kind of entry of NATO pact in Kiev and Odessa ?
Well, it's the same as if you wrote that Russia capitulated..
IF the NATO pact enters any area of ​​Ukraine except Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and Ternopil (and even such an entry is critical because the Russians would not know whether they would stay in just those 3 areas or go further), then we have a total war.
The thing is that Russia is still playing with common sense, it is up to the West to choose whether it wants Russia to give up such a game. That's the whole strategy, don't break your head with nonsense. Patience is the name of the game..

par far wrote:The Americans have just sent their 101st Airborne units to Romania and Poland.

No they haven't. They have been there since June when they replaced the 82nd Airborne. This is a fuss about nothing.

This was a PR exercise to puff up the Dems and Biden ahead of the mid term elections in the US next month.

The 101 in Rumania is causing us to be too tense. Here now is something a bit more whimsical:

JohninMK wrote:JacobCharite
@jaccocharite 1h
Kiev is preparing a provocation with the death of its own citizens in Volchansk during the distribution of humanitarian aid on October 24 - Russian Defense Ministry The military department reported that the Kiev regime is preparing a bloody provocation in Volchansk, Kharkov region, in.order to accuse Russia of a war crime. Tomorrow, October 24, during the distribution of humanitarian aid, foreign mercenaries will fire at the place of accumulation of civilians from artillery pieces.

Dey better hope not, I've got things to do today and I ain't gonna let some stupud little war or mass atrocity get in the way. And VCO has shopping to do so therein is your mortal danger. Proceed at yer own risk. I'm gonna stand back a little, don't want the shine on me boots mussed.....

Auslander & VCO

Broski wrote:

PhSt wrote:It seems we are seeing quite a couple of Su-30/34 crashes recently; wouldn't it be a wild assumption that NATzO has sleeper agents in Russian aircraft production plants who have planted devices in these planes to sabotage them while in flight?

Shit happens, name the fighter jet model that has never crashed.

Only one 4th gen Chinese aircraft has ever crashed. ( they don't report crashes) The J10 that crashed happened at an air show so it couldn't be covered up.

I don't believe in covering up everything but if you can get away with it , why not. Like when the radar equipment got stolen out of the nuclear warning plane. It was a top secret plane. There was no reason to report it. It only just gets used against you in the media

nomadski wrote:Since there seems to be no force to close the Polish and other borders , and Russian troops can at best liberate LDPR and a few regions in the East , then why are we surprised that NATO will move

Therefore whatever Russia does , from very little to a lot , it faces  NATO , with or without Ukraine . At the Polish border , it will also face NATO with say Polish forces etc . For as long as NATO benefits by war , it will now carry on with war . And as long as Russia is unwilling or unable to engage directly against NATO , the war will go on . The only way this will stop , is to field  Atomic weapons . Here NATO will not benefit and will loose also . So if they go Nuclear , then we will see a level playing field . The war will then find a solution .

Russia spent a lot of effort on strategic weapons. That are supposed to theoretically deter the US from doing insane shit. But it doesn't seem to work.

The US is more afraid of the localized consequences of war with Iran and war with N.Korea than they are about war with Russia. Oh no Soel is in artillery range. Oh no the strait of Hormuz will be shut. We never hear these kinds of concerns from them when the subject of war with Russia comes up. They are almost itching to get the war going.

War with Russia ? Nuclear bombs and hypersonic missiles ? No problem ! Shutter 80% of the gas going to our biggest ally ? No problem !

I think it is just the irrationality and extremism that is in the Anglo axis psyche about Russia. They just don't have these feelings towards North Koreans or Iranians.