Russian special military operation in Ukraine #31

ucmvulcan wrote:...
Should Putin take out the RADA, blow up bridges across the Dniepr and hit all NATO bases in Ukraine and take out US drones? Absolutely.  However, in terms of seeing the war to a successful conclusion, that may not be neccessary.

I don't think the war will have a successful conclusion until the collective West suffers a devistating economic collapse.
As long as they keep pumping money and weapons into Ukrainian militants, the war will continue.
It may morph into never ending terrorism, and guerrilla tactics, avoiding head-on confrontations with Russian armies.

Isos wrote:The grain deal has nothing to do with the war. It's about exporting food to other countries.

It would be really uggly to use it as a weapon.

It's good to see they let it keep going.

It has everything to do with the war as the Ukrainians have already used the sea-lanes provided by the deal to conduct attacks against Russia. Twice. And their 'written assurances' don't mean jack. What the hell is that?

Furthermore Russia should care less about whether any food gets to Europe or not, where most of it seems to be going. Is Europe offering Russia to resume exporting fertilizers and other goods through European ports? No

I don't know what Erdogan offered or threatened to resurrect this grain deal but it is a massive walk-back and a pie in the face. The attack on the Black Sea Fleet has effectively occurred without consequence in this case. Then they shouldn't have withdrawn if they weren't prepared to keep to that decision, IMO.

"Without consequences" was a second biggest strike that hit all the hydro power plants they have there.
Grain was widely exported to the EU anyway.
It is Turkey that benefits from this deal at a big scale, working as a middle man.
And now at least some of that grain can be delivered to the countries friendly to Russia.
Russian fertilizers are not sanctioned anymore in the EU and the US. Surprised?

I'm gonna give Putin the benifit of the doubt and assume that there is more to this than just getting  back in the grain deal. Maybe they want to de escalate the area for a surprise attack. Or something to that effect.

One of the few times Putin blatantly lied was during the first part of this grain deal. Russia said they wouldn't attack anything and they did anyway

flamming_python wrote:

Isos wrote:The grain deal has nothing to do with the war. It's about exporting food to other countries.

It would be really uggly to use it as a weapon.

It's good to see they let it keep going.

It has everything to do with the war as the Ukrainians have already used the sea-lanes provided by the deal to conduct attacks against Russia. Twice. And their 'written assurances' don't mean jack. What the hell is that?

Furthermore Russia should care less about whether any food gets to Europe or not, where most of it seems to be going. Is Europe offering Russia to resume exporting fertilizers and other goods through European ports? No

I don't know what Erdogan offered or threatened to resurrect this grain deal but it is a massive walk-back and a pie in the face. The attack on the Black Sea Fleet has effectively occurred without consequence in this case. Then they shouldn't have withdrawn if they weren't prepared to keep to that decision, IMO.

Spot on, finally you're coming around, criticism is warranted when these blatant mistakes are made by Russia.

This grain f*ck-up is especially egregious.

Tolstoy wrote:

Firebird wrote:
Can anyone work THAT out?
I can't. Its going to force people to give up on the forum.
The vermin win. And decent people leave.
Not right.

Have you even tried to reach out to the mods and ask them to ban scumbags like Sujoy?
Until we report these corrupt, racist scums like Sujoy they will continue with their evil deeds. Mass report him, get him BANNED permanently.

If you don't want to listen to Sojay, there is this little device on forum, it's called 'ignor' and you want have to read or listen to him.

Auslander

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Why would Russia need these missiles? Considering Iskander and Kalibr its obvious they either a) ran out , or b) cannot use these liberally anymore because their stocks are low

Because Ukraine's AD network has been blown wide open, courtesy partly of Iskander and Kalibr.
At this point Ukraine wouldn't feel the difference if it was Iskander or Zulfiqar that blows up their shit.

flamming_python wrote:

Isos wrote:The grain deal has nothing to do with the war. It's about exporting food to other countries.

It would be really uggly to use it as a weapon.

It's good to see they let it keep going.

It has everything to do with the war as the Ukrainians have already used the sea-lanes provided by the deal to conduct attacks against Russia. Twice. And their 'written assurances' don't mean jack. What the hell is that?

Furthermore Russia should care less about whether any food gets to Europe or not, where most of it seems to be going. Is Europe offering Russia to resume exporting fertilizers and other goods through European ports? No

I don't know what Erdogan offered or threatened to resurrect this grain deal but it is a massive walk-back and a pie in the face. The attack on the Black Sea Fleet has effectively occurred without consequence in this case. Then they shouldn't have withdrawn if they weren't prepared to keep to that decision, IMO.

I would have to see what Putin got in exchange for this, I highly doubt he went back in because he wants to be seen as the nice guy....so I assume there was some deal made under the table.

ALAMO wrote:"Without consequences" was a second biggest strike that hit all the hydro power plants they have there.
Grain was widely exported to the EU anyway.
It is Turkey that benefits from this deal at a big scale, working as a middle man.
And now at least some of that grain can be delivered to the countries friendly to Russia.
Russian fertilizers are not sanctioned anymore in the EU and the US. Surprised?

Erdogan and the UN ( ) are guaranteeing that 404 will behave. If it doesn´t Erdogan will be furious... and keep his mouth shut while Russia bombs the shit out of the Nazis in Odessa and Nikolaev.

03:34 02.11.2022 (updated: 10:50 02.11.2022)
314771

Source: Russia hit Ukrainian military targets with X-32 missiles

Russian Aerospace Forces attacked Ukrainian military facilities with X-32 cruise missiles

MOSCOW, November 2 - RIA Novosti. Russian long-range bombers in the course of a special military operation deliver high-precision strikes on Ukrainian military targets with new Kh-32 cruise missiles, also known as "aircraft carrier killers", an informed source told RIA Novosti.
As the interlocutor of the agency explained, the X-32 is designed for modernized long-range bombers Tu-22M3M , however, several combat aircraft of the previous modification Tu-22M3 were also converted for its use .


"As part of the SVO, the converted Tu-22M3s conducted a whole series of launches of new Kh-32 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles at ground military infrastructure facilities of the Ukrainian side. As a result, the ability of missiles to effectively and accurately hit ground targets was fully confirmed in combat conditions," he said. source.


He noted that "not a single Kh-32 missile was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems."
The main purpose of the Kh-32 is the destruction of surface ships. The missile has improved characteristics for breaking through the air defense system of aircraft carrier groups. However, as the source explained, "today, the Kh-32, in essence, is no longer a specialized anti-ship missile, but a universal missile system, which is capable of hitting both surface and small-sized ground targets with equally high efficiency."
The Kh-32 was developed to replace the Kh-22 and entered service in 2016. From its predecessor, the rocket inherited a slightly modified airframe. According to open data, she received a modernized engine with increased thrust, new digital electronic equipment, including a computer complex, an active-passive radar station protected from interference, and electronic countermeasure systems. The maximum speed of the rocket is close to hypersonic, it is about Mach 5, the range of application is one thousand kilometers.

https://ria.ru/20221102/udary-1828547804.html

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
I would have to see what Putin got in exchange for this, I highly doubt he went back in because he wants to be seen as the nice guy....so I assume there was some deal made under the table.

I'm surprised why so many Russians/pro Russian guys think that Putin got nothing out of that. If this was something with Azerbaijan, Syria ro gas-hub/Russian fertilizes export its yet to be seen.

ucmvulcan wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Ukraine Battle Map
@ukraine_map
·
16m
Several dozen Ukrainian Troops are finishing training in Norway on NASAMS Air Defense Systems

The training will end soon and two NASAMS systems will be delivered to Ukraine “in the coming days” and will start operating in Early November- US Officials say (NYT)

Those are gonna blow up so nicely on a drone cam

I would rather attach some rcs increaser on cheap zala drones and let them use their 1 million $ missiles for fun.

flamming_python wrote:

Isos wrote:The grain deal has nothing to do with the war. It's about exporting food to other countries.

It would be really uggly to use it as a weapon.

It's good to see they let it keep going.

It has everything to do with the war as the Ukrainians have already used the sea-lanes provided by the deal to conduct attacks against Russia. Twice. And their 'written assurances' don't mean jack. What the hell is that?

Furthermore Russia should care less about whether any food gets to Europe or not, where most of it seems to be going. Is Europe offering Russia to resume exporting fertilizers and other goods through European ports? No

I don't know what Erdogan offered or threatened to resurrect this grain deal but it is a massive walk-back and a pie in the face. The attack on the Black Sea Fleet has effectively occurred without consequence in this case. Then they shouldn't have withdrawn if they weren't prepared to keep to that decision, IMO.

The route goes from Odessa to Bosphorus.

It isn't linked to Sevastopol or Crimea.

I don't see how they would be safer if they don't allow ships from Odessa go to Turkey strait south.

Those underwater drones can be used even if they mine all Odessa costline and imported through Poland which was probably the case.

Those attacks will keep happening. They arrn't related to those grain lanes and ships.

Erk wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:...
Should Putin take out the RADA, blow up bridges across the Dniepr and hit all NATO bases in Ukraine and take out US drones? Absolutely.  However, in terms of seeing the war to a successful conclusion, that may not be neccessary.

I don't think the war will have a successful conclusion until the collective West suffers a devistating economic collapse.
As long as they keep pumping money and weapons into Ukrainian militants, the war will continue.
It may morph into never ending terrorism, and guerrilla tactics, avoiding head-on confrontations with Russian armies.

It can only conclude when Russia controls the borders.

Isos wrote:

It has everything to do with the war as the Ukrainians have already used the sea-lanes provided by the deal to conduct attacks against Russia. Twice. And their 'written assurances' don't mean jack. What the hell is that?

Furthermore Russia should care less about whether any food gets to Europe or not, where most of it seems to be going. Is Europe offering Russia to resume exporting fertilizers and other goods through European ports? No

I don't know what Erdogan offered or threatened to resurrect this grain deal but it is a massive walk-back and a pie in the face. The attack on the Black Sea Fleet has effectively occurred without consequence in this case. Then they shouldn't have withdrawn if they weren't prepared to keep to that decision, IMO.

The route goes from Odessa to Bosphorus.

It isn't linked to Sevastopol or Crimea.

I don't see how they would be safer if they don't allow ships from Odessa go to Turkey strait south.

Those underwater drones can be used even if they mine all Odessa costline and imported through Poland which was probably the case.

Those attacks will keep happening. They arrn't related to those grain lanes and ships.

Where else can Ukraine launch a sea based attack then Odessa?  The Russians agreed to bestow prestige on their ally Erdogan, and also to show they are dealing in good faith. But of course they don't believe it either.

Where else can Ukraine launch a sea based attack then Odessa? The Russians agreed to bestow prestige on their ally Erdogan, and also to show they are dealing in good faith. But of course they don't believe it either.

And ? They don't use grain ships or the grains to attack Russia.

Odessa is a city. If they know where they store those drones they can hit them.

Saying they use the grain deal for those attacks is dumb since the grain deal just allows the exit of ships from Odessa to Turkey.

There is no link between those attacks from Odessa and the grain deal.

It's a war. Ukraine has the right to use those weapons. It's the russian navy and air force that are faulty for not preventing such attacks. They need to send all their ships sail the more they can. The more they stay at harbour the more they are dumb fixed targets.

Isos wrote:The route goes from Odessa to Bosphorus.

It isn't linked to Sevastopol or Crimea.

I don't see how they would be safer if they don't allow ships from Odessa go to Turkey strait south.

Those underwater drones can be used even if they mine all Odessa costline and imported through Poland which was probably the case.

Those attacks will keep happening. They arrn't related to those grain lanes and ships.

Quite simply, without the grain deal there is no reason for any ship to go to or from Odessa at all.

Which rather simplifies Russian inspection, blockade, monitoring or whatever security measures without a constant train of traffic

Those underwater drones have a limited range. They'd be associated with some sort of mothership, that apparently was also traversing the grain sealane

And again, no reason to facilitate food exports to the EU either; who have been attempting to institute an effective blockade on Russia and have demanded other countries stop trading with Russia among other measures.

So I'm really wondering what Erdogan said that was so convincing here. Else why is Putin doing him such massive favours?
And it surely is a massive favour as it aids an adversarial, enemy even bloc of nations in their food security, while enabling further risks to Russian civilian and military infrastructure.
Related to the Armenia-Azeri negotiations perhaps?

Interesting POV from a MoA poster

Anyone want to start a betting pool on the date the ground freezes hard enough
for the Russian tanks to start rolling?

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Nov 1 2022 7:12 utc | 4

I doubt that the Russian offensive will come quickly.

We must not forget that the war is taking place on three levels. The lowest and least important level is the war in Ukraine. The Ukraine war is important only for simple minded people and has the advantage of consuming NATO weapons and personnel.

At the middle level, we have an economic war. Right now between Russia and EU (1st front), between EU and America (2nd front) between US and China (3rd front). The economic war is far more important than the Russia war. To win the Ukraine war (lowest level), one have to win the economic war.

At the top level, we have a political war. And the political war between the unipolar and multipolar world order will last ten years (Putin) or even 20 years (Joe Biden) and will decide the world order for the next x-hundred years.

To the lowest level: the Russians could just keep doing what they have been doing for the last six months and succeed in the long run. The West uses up its weapons and thus loses its ability to act in other theaters. The risks, however, are escalation, such as extending the war to Belarus, using nuclear weapons, or Poland invading Ukraine. Russia must therefore exert _some_ more pressure to show dominance. But not too much pressure, otherwise the West will panic and might start desperate actions.

From the Russian point of view: an attack on Greater Odessa would be a nice move.

To the middle level: the EU needs at least another half a year to realize that Russia is a much stronger opponent than thought. And probably the EU needs first a bankruptcy of big states like France or Germany to realize that the Americans are the enemy and the Russians are the friends.

Posted by: Tuk | Nov 1 2022 15:03 utc | 53

More from MoA. On top of that you have to add Europe and the rest of the World.

An amazing amount of weaponry made it's way to Ukraine from the USA....
https://t.me/swodki/185416

The United States has already delivered 202 artillery systems to Ukraine since the end of February 2022, according to Pentagon data.

Kyiv also received more than a million artillery shells, 6.3 thousand portable missile systems to fight armored targets, 1.4 thousand portable anti-aircraft missile systems, 15 helicopters, 46 radars, 10.2 thousand assault rifles and pistols, about 68.2 million rounds of ammunition. for small arms and 26 patrol boats.

For this purpose, heavy transport aircraft (both military and chartered by the Pentagon) made 845 flights to Europe. 47 ships, 114 trains and 3.4 thousand trailers were also involved. In total, more than 84,000 tons of weapons and military equipment have been delivered to Ukraine.

I read on Tass news that , Russia to provide free grain to poor countries . I was thinking that part of grain from Ukraine could have been negotiated for delivery by Russia , as part of deal . Since this news came out just after talks with Turkiye . About Odessa coastline and Odessa oblast , the territory itself needs to be liberated , since mostly Russian speakers  and they have no future in Ukraine .  But to stop shipping attacks by fast patrol Boats or mini -submarines or torpedo or drone or cruise missiles , it is not necessary to capture the Odessa coastline . It is merely enough to have fire superiority at Sea and stop grain and trade ships by Ukraine . But since the oblast needs to be liberated , this will also stop the need for navy or anti - ship or submarine platforms  by Russia in Black Sea .

flamming_python wrote:And it surely is a massive favour as it aids an adversarial, enemy even bloc of nations in their food security, while enabling further risks to Russian civilian and military infrastructure.
Related to the Armenia-Azeri negotiations perhaps?

Blocking Sweden and Finland from entering NATO? At least for a while. Not because Russia cares, just to annoy Washington.

Some dudes on Twitter commented the official words of the Kremlin and the prospect of delivering grain for free to poor countries.
It´s not about IF 404 will break the deal again but WHEN and then the reaction will be swift and strong. This will be another shitty
Monday for the Elenskiy regime.

Hole wrote:

flamming_python wrote:And it surely is a massive favour as it aids an adversarial, enemy even bloc of nations in their food security, while enabling further risks to Russian civilian and military infrastructure.
Related to the Armenia-Azeri negotiations perhaps?

Blocking Sweden and Finland from entering NATO? At least for a while. Not because Russia cares, just to annoy Washington.

Todays release of 60 Minutes on the Russia 1 went even further.
Under the circumstances of NS sabotage, Ukrainian terroristic activities etc, it can not be excluded that a Turk Stream will become another target.
We talk huge money behind, a grain deal is just a pennies if we consider that.
It is Turkey becoming a nuclear energy producer and a big (giant??) gas hub for deliveries to the Balkans&Southern Europe.
This threat is very serious from the Turkish perspective either, so there are talks already initiated about a combined Turk-Rus common body to guarantee the safety of the Black Sea activities.
Today it was reported that Italy postponed the next tranche of military assistance to the 404 - people are trying to figure out if we talk about postponing or ceasing. That might effect in return of Russian energy products to Italy, that is a 3rd Euro economy and advanced technologically developed industrial country. They would be happy as a puppy having the advantage of cheap energy over the German economy ... You know, the European integrity in its natural souse.