Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

Hole wrote:


EMERCOM facility in Mariupol. Build in a few month by the russian MoD.

With all the reconstruction they are doing there it gives me some good re-assurance ukrainians wont get to Mariupol next.

billybatts91 wrote:Next Ukraine moves could be here according to some? Will more "tough decisions" need to be made or will Russians not retreat but defend their territory and eventually counter back? Quite shocking at how quickly this has turned upside down for Putin and Co. Putin recognized this land as Russian just a few months ago. Had a big ceremony and everything and now they retreat without fighting back. Just letting the Ukrainians easily take over territory that will be hard to take back now. Hard to make sense of any of this.

This is what Strelkov has been warning about since summer. And Ukraine just freed up 50-60k troops for offensive operations.

Anyway, one major effect of Russia's retreat to the east side of the Dnieper is that the US is more likely now to provide more advanced weapon systems to Kiev on the condition they are not moved to the east bank, since the threat of them being captured by Russia is now zero.

ATACMS in Nikolaev / Kherson can easily reach Sevastopol and the Kerch Strait Bridge would be right at the limit of its range.

zorobabel wrote:
Anyway, one major effect of Russia's retreat to the east side of the Dnieper is that the US is more likely now to provide more advanced weapon systems to Kiev on the condition they are not moved to the east bank, since the threat of them being captured by Russia is now zero.

This is all talk, just hand over Pukraine all the so-called modern western weapons already so Russia will be forced to escalate. More power infrastructures needs to be destroyed in Pukaine along with food storage and water facilities to induce winter famine

PhSt wrote:

zorobabel wrote:
Anyway, one major effect of Russia's retreat to the east side of the Dnieper is that the US is more likely now to provide more advanced weapon systems to Kiev on the condition they are not moved to the east bank, since the threat of them being captured by Russia is now zero.

This is all talk, just hand over Pukraine all the so-called modern western weapons already so Russia will be forced to escalate. More power infrastructures needs to be destroyed in Pukaine along with food storage and water facilities to induce winter famine

Not talk at all. Russia has an equivalent of the ATACMS (Iskander), so it would not be considered an unfair escalation.

The big question is if the US will allow Ukraine to use such weapons to strike Crimea -- whether that would be considered a red line or not. Based on the UK's collaboration with Ukraine on the Sevastopol drone attack attempt, I think they will say yes.

Hole wrote:

Just to annoy PD.
.... 

First one running away across the river like a cockroach

zorobabel wrote:
Not talk at all. Russia has an equivalent of the ATACMS (Iskander), so it would not be considered an unfair escalation.

What kind of logic is this? Just because Russia has a similar system means supplying ATACMS is not an escalation? Why not supply Pukraine with nukes too since Russia has equivalent weapons duh

Also, what the US thinks is an escalation or not means nothing. If more capable systems are supplied to Pukrain Russia needs to level all of Pukraine and turn the entire NATzO occupied territory into a sea of fire. This should have been done in day 1, but if they do it tomorrow I'm okay with that, and hopefully Russia kills all NATzO sympathizers on Twitter and in forums like this, identify their locations and have them and their families murdered Mafia style.

I will only be a doomer with Archangelski if 3 of these conditions happen.

1. Russia ordering 100k additional troops: They had like 100k-120k forces or so in the operation, they underestimated the situation and got like 318k reserves. so roughly like 400k-450K, While our boy Zelensky stated in May 21 that he had like 700k ukrainian troops which of course foreign volunteers could have jumped in later. If they order these troops this means that their land forces despite us seeing a small fraction of it can never go toe to toe with NATO around an equal footing, and they have fucked up again underestimating the situation which at this point shows their higher ups dont know what they are doing which will finally confirm it if they order these amount of troops.

2. Russia signing a peace deal and only taking some or no territory from Ukraine.

3. Ukrainians taking Mariupol: Ever since the Septermber offensive and this November offensive of Ukrainians making gains, something rubbed me the wrong way and that is they keep on doing alot of construction projects in Mariupol from residential building apartments to a huge fire house supplied with new Kamaz fire trucks despite all these offensives Ukraine took. It must be really an absolute guarantee that they believe despite these offensives that Ukraine wont get that far. The DPR leader is there taking selfies and shit I guess he must know from the higher ups that Mariupol wont get taken over since Russians dont spend money on projects for nothing if they get destroyed or taken over later by Ukraine.

Bruh if Russia lost Mari thats beyond "doomer"

Scorpius wrote:A reasonable plan for a military campaign sounds like this: take an operational pause for the winter-spring period, mobilize and train 700-900 thousand more fighters, accumulate the necessary amount of weapons reserves. And in this case, the summer of 2023 may be the last for the existence of the former Ukraine.
This is my view of the current events.

Argeed. Things are likely paused untill next year. No rush

Surovikin can not make the mistake of underestimating the Ukrainians and their masters tho.

ALAMO wrote:

Do you know that from our perspective that is just a Schadefreaude, ja?

Schadenfreude

At least some joy in life. 


Good job by the Ka-BOOM engineers.



A MLRS rocket after some meeting with an Pantsir missile

0nillie0 wrote:

Scorpius wrote:A reasonable plan for a military campaign sounds like this: take an operational pause for the winter-spring period, mobilize and train 700-900 thousand more fighters, accumulate the necessary amount of weapons reserves. And in this case, the summer of 2023 may be the last for the existence of the former Ukraine.
This is my view of the current events.

Argeed. Things are likely paused untill next year. No rush

Surovikin can not make the mistake of underestimating the Ukrainians and their masters tho.

Yes let Ukraine spend a year building up more and more weapons coming in free of charge, that will work out well~

Hole wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Rest of us are in here for the long-haul, Russia is too and I'm sure Surovikin knows what he's doing.

He is in charge for 2 month or so. Give him some time.

This is the problem with this Twitter/Tik Tok generation. Even a game of darts is to long for them. 

Same goes for this category that they do not realise what sort of effect it has on society that Russia almost whiped out critical utilitys of the kiev regime.

Outside off how it affects the authorities, people will not stick around long term to enjoy the stone-age standards of living. These things are not easily repaired.

Im sure twitter is full of shallow slava ukraini tweets...
But peoples morals and ideas go out the window as soon life gets tough. Where does the food come from?. Drinkable water?, heat?. And down this road where are you going to take your sick fammily members when disease strikes?

These people will either go to Europe, or Russia. Why stay in 404 Ukraine?.
Kiev itself as an city will implode sooner or later if utilitys are not restored.

Either way, Russia erodes Kievs base of power in ukraine. And the bear happily mauls the ukrainian army further to bits untill there is no man left in ukraine that can hold an weapon.
Manpower is an finite resource, Kiev burns trough that candle on both ends trying to hold the Russians at bay.

Cities and bridges can be rebuild, look at mariupol. Look at the repairs to the crimean bridge how fast the RF can execute these projects. There are 350.000 reinforcements on the way.

Why waste your RF troops lives when there might be soon no ukraine left for the Nazis to fight for?. Remember, the nazis are not trapped.
They run back to their masters in western europe when they believe the war is lost.
Russia will rebuild what is destroyed and they need back. Ukraine is completely dependant on NATO that are losing the will to support this war. And damn, those transformer stations that have an production cycle of two years are mighty pricey when another flying lawnmower can screw it all up again.

Russia has all the time, Ukraine has not.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Yes let Ukraine spend a year building up more and more weapons coming in free of charge, that will work out well~

This is why I am advocating for regular FOAB bombardment along with Geran and Kaliber strikes of major Khohkol cities and infrastructure to keep the cockroach population in check. Food and water supplies need to be a priority target to impose a deadly famine on all Khokholian population.

The cope is so good, I wish I could have some of it

Literal Steiner and Hitlers drawing fictional attacks on maps,

More likely Ukros will mass on Zaporozhye,  Surovikhin will say tough decisions are coming

And you all will be doing monkey backflips explaining why it's a good idea

It's so funny, I can only be drunk to read this forum now hahaha

I give it until January for you cope addicts to explain why a winter offensive was unnecessary, and why putin is a genius for getting out of useless Zaporozhye, and signing the surrender is 7d chess that we'd never understand

And il be here off a fifth of the bottle to laugh

Well, Western propaganda is reaching ridiculous levels. Who in their right mind would believe this. I've been critical of Putin and the overall leadership but this is just idiotic and made up lies lol. Ridiculous.

i seriously don't understand why Russia pulled out of Kherson when they had it under there control, to me it feels like a own goal that gave Ukraine a propaganda victory.

something else might be going on that they needed those troops but to me it feels as if Russia abandoned the people of Kherson to the naz.is

billybatts91 wrote:Well, Western propaganda is reaching ridiculous levels. Who in their right mind would believe this. I've been critical of Putin and the overall leadership but this is just idiotic and made up lies lol. Ridiculous.

This is actually really likely, I give it until February

Usually the outlandish statements comes out, the zombie cope addicts rebuff it

Then 3 months later it happens and they're explaining why it's a great idea

Western Intel has actually been right most of the time

The Russian intel has been flat out wrong

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:

Scorpius wrote:A reasonable plan for a military campaign sounds like this: take an operational pause for the winter-spring period, mobilize and train 700-900 thousand more fighters, accumulate the necessary amount of weapons reserves. And in this case, the summer of 2023 may be the last for the existence of the former Ukraine.
This is my view of the current events.

Argeed. Things are likely paused untill next year. No rush

Surovikin can not make the mistake of underestimating the Ukrainians and their masters tho.

Yes let Ukraine spend a year building up more and more weapons coming in free of charge, that will work out well~

I am talking about offensive operations on the ground only. Destruction of infrastructure, weapons etc. must obviously continue. The Ukranian army has been fully requipped several times over, and likely it will happen again. This is where the economic war will have to play a part.

I dont see any point in going on the offense now. You said yourself a gazillion times Russia does not currently have the numbers. They play defence on the ground while keeping up the pressure on Ukraine with other means.

BTW, those weapons are not free of charge. Somebody pays for them, even if it is not the Ukraine.

PhSt wrote:In the meantime can Russia just start dropping a couple of FOABs now??? New waves of Gerans and Kalibers should be flying right now to completely annihilate Pukranian power infrastructure. Then start targeting water and food store sites to make a gigantic humanitarian crisis in NATzO occupied Pukraine.

If you'd be quiet you would hear a world of hurt heading north. I can hear it plain as day....or night as it may be.

Auslander & VCO & Sophia & Kristina & Aleksandr & Shurik & Blackie &...oh hell, we're all listening. And time for a short snort of Kagor to make the evening. Kagor? Sorry, y'all have to go to St. Nikolas Church to get it. Father Giorgei has the good stuff made by the monks on south coast down Massandrah way. Smooth red wine......come to think of it since I'm not on chemo at the moment (start again in less than a week) I'll have two snorts.....or three.....

Arkanghelsk wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:Well, Western propaganda is reaching ridiculous levels. Who in their right mind would believe this. I've been critical of Putin and the overall leadership but this is just idiotic and made up lies lol. Ridiculous.

This is actually really likely, I give it until February

Usually the outlandish statements comes out, the zombie cope addicts rebuff it

Then 3 months later it happens and they're explaining why it's a great idea

Western Intel has actually been right most of the time

The Russian intel has been flat out wrong

I don't think so. This would be the most cowardly move in Russian history and that's saying something. You really believe Putin would leave the whole of Ukraine just to get war crimes charges dropped against him? The West can't implement war crimes charges against Russians anyways lol. And if they did try to do something like that, I'm sure all communication with the Russian side would be cut and we know America and the West don't want to completely do that. It's absurd, no credence should be given to this fantasy idea.

0nillie0 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Yes let Ukraine spend a year building up more and more weapons coming in free of charge, that will work out well~

I am talking about offensive operations on the ground only. Destruction of infrastructure, weapons etc. must obviously continue. The Ukranian army has been fully requipped several times over, and likely it will happen again. This is where the economic war will have to play a part.

I dont see any point in going on the offense now. You said yourself a gazillion times Russia does not currently have the numbers. They play defence on the ground while keeping up the pressure on Ukraine with other means.

BTW, those weapons are not free of charge. Somebody pays for them, even if it is not the Ukraine.

Well, furthermore if Russia continue bombing and "droning" without pause in the meanwhile, and do not allow Ukraine to repair their infrastructure damage, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian troops to be very warm and motivated in the next few months.

I can expect huge mass of refugees (including possibly Ukrainian soldiers that would disert or rebel) heading west. 

Concerning the ukrainian army west of the Dnepr, can Ukraine move them east easily? Are there many crossing points still available south of Dnepropetrovsk?

Azi wrote:
Fun fact...it's still a SMO and not a war despite Russia lost territory!

Russia just waits until the West repeats this openly and de-facto admits it's Russian territory.

If they lose territory and it's not recognized by anyone even for propaganda purposes as russian than it's not a loss. If they tell Russia loses it's own territory that means they recognize it as russian and Russia can do as it's pleases anyway.

Airbornewolf wrote:
on behalf of Franco.

@ Franco, if you go to your windows start button. and type "snip" you see a program called "snipping tool".
With this you can drag a box over your screen to save that selection to an JPEG Wink

Windows10 has a built in shortcut for snipping tool for screenshots. Just press three buttons simultaneously (SHIFT+WINDOWS+S) this will activate the snipping function of your Snipping Tool. After selecting the area to snip or an entire window it will be in your cache or use "floppy disk" to safe it somewhere.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
I can expect huge mass of refugees (including possibly Ukrainian soldiers that would disert or rebel) heading west. 

Concerning the ukrainian army west of the Dnepr, can Ukraine move them east easily? Are there many crossing points still available south of Dnepropetrovsk?

There are 3 or 4 bridges in Zaporozhye. Downriver, Khakhovka lake starts.

caveat emptor wrote:
Pollacks are most Russophobic nation of significance in Europe. It is even more glaring, considering that they are Slavs. I'm yet to meet a Russophile Pollack in person.

Not that it makes any difference, but we do have some poles here and they can give their views. The pro-Russian pole is not a complete unicorn, I met plenty of them in Lithuania and some in Poland too. My family is lucky to have Poles, Belarusians and Russians and politics is big taboo between us

Poles are poles, but they never would chant "death to Russians" as Ukrainians (good luck finding more vile russophobia in other countries) In no other countries in the world there were pogroms against Russians.

thegopnik wrote:I will only be a doomer with Archangelski if 3 of these conditions happen.

1. Russia ordering 100k additional troops: They had like 100k-120k forces or so in the operation, they underestimated the situation and got like 318k reserves. so roughly like 400k-450K, While our boy Zelensky stated in May 21 that he had like 700k ukrainian troops which of course foreign volunteers could have jumped in later. If they order these troops this means that their land forces despite us seeing a small fraction of it can never go toe to toe with NATO around an equal footing, and they have fucked up again underestimating the situation which at this point shows their higher ups dont know what they are doing which will finally confirm it if they order these amount of troops.

Don't even understand what you attempted to say here

2. Russia signing a peace deal and only taking some or no territory from Ukraine.

If there is a peace deal on the horizon you'll hear about it, and you'll certainly hear about Russia's conditions for it. It will be as public as it can get.

It won't happen in the way the Americans want it to; some backroom discussion via Jake Sullivan through Saudi Arabia aimed chiefly at the US preserving both the regime, the capacity to arm it up again, and the appearance of victory - and Russia being humiliated.

3. Ukrainians taking Mariupol: Ever since the Septermber offensive and this November offensive of Ukrainians making gains, something rubbed me the wrong way and that is they keep on doing alot of construction projects in Mariupol from residential building apartments to a huge fire house supplied with new Kamaz fire trucks despite all these offensives Ukraine took. It must be really an absolute guarantee that they believe despite these offensives that Ukraine wont get that far. The DPR leader is there taking selfies and shit I guess he must know from the higher ups that Mariupol wont get taken over since Russians dont spend money on projects for nothing if they get destroyed or taken over later by Ukraine.

The Ukraine has only ever taken what Russia has itself withdrawn from