Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

Sun Tzu Walks Into a Kherson Bar, by Pepe Escobar for The Unz Review. 11.11.2022.

The announcement of the Kherson Retreat may have signaled one of the gloomiest days of the Russian Federation since 1991.

Leaving the right bank of the Dnieper to set up a defense line on the left bank may spell out total military sense. General Armageddon himself, since his first day on the job, had hinted this might have been inevitable.

As it stands in the chessboard, Kherson is in the “wrong” side of the Dnieper. All residents of Kherson Oblast – 115,000 people in total – who wanted to be relocated to safer latitudes have been evacuated from the right bank.

General Armageddon knew that was inevitable for several reasons:

no mobilization after the initial SMO plans hit the dust; destruction of strategic bridges across the Dnieper – complete with a three-month methodical Ukrainian pounding of bridges, ferries, pontoons and piers; no second bridgehead to the north of Kherson or to the west (towards Odessa or Nikolaev) to conduct an offensive.

And then, the most important reason: massive weaponization coupled with NATO de facto running the war translated into enormous Western superiority in reconnaissance, communications and command and control.

In the end, the Kherson Retreat may be a relatively minor tactical loss. Yet politically, it’s an unmitigated disaster, a devastating embarrassment.

Kherson is a Russian city. Russians have lost – even if temporarily – the capital of a brand new territory attached to the Federation. Russian public opinion will have tremendous problems absorbing the news.

The list of negatives is considerable. Kiev forces secure their flank and may free up forces to go against Donbass. Weaponizing by the collective West gets a major boost. HIMARS can now potentially strike targets in Crimea.

The optics are horrendous. Russia’s image across the Global South is severely tarnished; after all, this move amounts to abandoning Russian territory – while serial Ukrainian war crimes instantly disappear from the major “narrative”.

At a minimum, the Russians a long time ago should have reinforced their major strategic advantage bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper so that it could hold – short of a widely forecasted Kakhovka Dam flood. And yet the Russians also ignored the dam bombing threat for months. That spells out terrible planning.

Now Russian forces will have to conquer Kherson all over again. And in parallel stabilize the frontlines; draw definitive borders; and then strive to “demilitarize” Ukrainian offensives for good, either via negotiation or carpet bombing.

It’s quite revealing that an array of NATO intel types, from analysts to retired Generals, are suspicious of General Armageddon’s move: they see it as an elaborate trap, or as a French military analyst put it, “a massive deception operation”. Classic Sun Tzu. That has been duly incorporated as the official Ukrainian narrative.

So, to quote Twin Peaks, that American pop culture subversive classic, “the owls are not what they seem”. If that’s the case, General Armageddon would be looking to severely overstretch Ukrainian supply lines; seduce them into exposure; and then engage in a massive turkey shoot.

So it’s either Sun Tzu; or a deal is in the wings, coinciding with the G20 next week in Bali.

The art of the deal

Well, some sort of deal seems to have been struck between Jake Sullivan and Patrushev.

No one really knows the details, even those with access to flamboyant 5th Column informants in Kiev. But yes – the deal seems to include Kherson. Russia would keep Donbass but not advance towards Kharkov and Odessa. And NATO expansion would be definitely frozen. A minimalist deal.

That would explain why Patrushev was able to board a plane to Tehran simultaneous to the announcement of the Kherson Retreat, and take care, quite relaxed, of very important strategic partnership business with Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

The deal may have also been the inbuilt “secret” in Maria Zakharova’s announcement that “we’re ready for negotiations”.

The Russians will leave the Dnieper riverbank in a managed military retreat. That would not be possible without managed military-to-military negotiations.

These back channel negotiations have been going on for weeks. The messenger is Saudi Arabia. The US aim, in the short term, would be towards a sort of Minsk 3 accord – with Istanbul/Riyadh attached.

No one is paying the slightest attention to coke clown Zelensky. Sullivan went to Kiev to present a fait accompli – of sorts.

The Dnieper will be – in thesis – the settled and negotiated frontline.

Kiev would have to swallow a frozen line of contact in Zaporizhye, Donetsk and Lugansk – with Kiev receiving electricity from Zaporozhye, hence cease shelling its infrastructure.

The US would come up with a loan of $50 billion plus part of the confiscated – i.e. stolen – Russian assets to “rebuild” Ukraine. Kiev would receive modern air defense systems.

There’s no doubt Moscow will not go along with any of these provisions.

Note that all this coincides with the outcome of the US elections – where the Dems did not exactly lose.

Meanwhile Russia is accumulating more and more gains in the battle for Bakhmut.

There are no illusions whatsoever in Moscow that this crypto-Minsk 3 would be respected by the “non-agreement capable” Empire.

Jake Sullivan is a 45-year-old lawyer with zero strategic background and “experience” amounting to campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Patrushev can eat him for breakfast, lunch, dinner and late night snack – and vaguely “agree” to anything.

So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow’s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev’s fate is sealed.

Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/sun-tzu-walks-into-a-kherson-bar/

Hole wrote:
Take a look at some of the videos of Ukro Nazi fighters entering the city. The people that staid in Kherson salute them with their right arms. You know, the old "Olympic salute".
This shows the main problem of those that declare themselfs to be "Ukrainians". Two days ago they took money, food, free healthcare and much lower utility prices from Russia and today they raise blue and yellow flags and shout "Heil Bandera". I hope someone in the FSB takes a look at that and writes down the names of this individuals.

I heard there is a constant need for human organs for transplant patients waiting for donors, why not make a profit out of these Ukro Nazis and help shorten the waiting times for the poor patients.

pavi wrote:
This is the biggest problem in this whole operation. You can always qonquer the land, cities and, etc. What next? You feed them,you rebuild for them,and still, they spit on you. That's the reason why yankees have not been succesfull in Iraq or in Afganistan. It is wise to stay out of these areas or, harshly said, change the people. Maybe, this whithdrawing was just a purge?

Because most leaders make the mistake of keeping the conquered people alive. Harvest their organs or turn them into fertilizer. Problem solved. Same treatment should be extended to all NATzO fans out there. Kill them and their families.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:The user above (phSt) should be banned for advocating a genocide

. It's a pro Russian forum but this is clearly off limits.

Where is GarryB when we need him?

It's all in your head you stinking NAZI Troll. Nothing wrong with exterminating NAZIs like yourself

PhSt wrote:

pavi wrote:
This is the biggest problem in this whole operation. You can always qonquer the land, cities and, etc. What next? You feed them,you rebuild for them,and still, they spit on you. That's the reason why yankees have not been succesfull in Iraq or in Afganistan. It is wise to stay out of these areas or, harshly said, change the people. Maybe, this whithdrawing was just a purge?

Because most leaders make the mistake of keeping the conquered people alive. Harvest their organs or turn them into fertilizer. Problem solved. Same treatment should be extended to all NATzO fans out there. Kill them and their families.

You are deranged and mentally ill, seek help.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
You are deranged and mentally ill, seek help.

This is a war of Extermination being waged by you westerners against Russia. Apparently when its your side who is doing the slaughter its perfectly normal and that there is nothing to see, but when others suggest the same approach suddenly they are deranged and mentally ill

sundoesntrise wrote:

You are not supposed to notice.

And if you do, you are a 'NATzO rat whose mom's organs need to be harvested'.

Better question, especially after seeing how the Russians are constructing lines of defence in Northern Crimea, what's the plan from here on forward?

Is there actually a plan?

What plan

It's a shitshow of epic proportions

A random marine brigade is attacking in some pavlovka, some random wagner group attacks Artemovsk, without support

Some random chechens attack here and there

There's no method to the madness, and how would there be ? There's strict orders to not shell to avoid civilian casualties-

It's a disaster and I'm just laughing reading these threads

calripson wrote:Comments leaked by various Western military and political officials and the refusal to supply certain arms indicated that deals are being cut and the retreat from Kherson is part of the package. As Macron stated , they don't want to overtly humiliate Russia, but de facto the war has already been lost for Putin and the question of what conditions they impose and the timeline for implementing those conditions are up in the air. There will be some face saving gestures, but the ultimate reality for all but the most cognitively impaired is apparent. It is a shocking geopolitical defeat - shocking except to UK and US military and intelligence strategists who game planned it perfectly. It highlights the huge inadequacies in Russian intelligence first and foremost (you have to wonder how widely penetrated and compromised those agencies are) as well as Russian military leadership. The relative disparity in technology (outside of some key areas like strategic and hypersonic weapons) is apparent to all. Also, the total uselessness of the most advanced strategic weapons in the knowledge that you will never use them even as a tool of mass psychological terror. Some general lessons to be learned from the conflict: naval capital ships are a worthless waste of money in modern warfare, no armored vehicle should be produced without an effective APS system, cost effective drone swarms and anti-drone non-kinetic weapons are the waves of the future. Demographics and ideology matter as much in 2022 as ever. The Taliban outlasted the Americans (as did the North Vietnamese) because their women pumped out 3 kids for every adult killed by the Americans and they were more than willing to fight and die for an idea. Too many people in this forum look at Russian history circa 1945 and conflate that with modern Russia.

Did you grab this script from your NATzO Tabloid propagandists?

Any sign of defeat should automatically trigger Russia to fire a couple of nuke salvos. This will remind the West that Russia will not stand idle and allow itself to be humiliated. Russia will have to resort to nuclear war to humiliate the West by annihilating them. Russia will get destroyed in the process but at least a nuclear war will result in a draw. Whats most important is that the entire Western civilization is exterminated forever

I have already determined the modus operandi of NATzO Trolls in this forum (and others)

These NATzO Trolls will say a thing or two about how they support Russia and then mention a couple of slurs towards the West and Pukraine, this is to give other people an impression that they support Russia's cause, but this is just a ruse, when the opportune moment comes, they will not hesitate to regurgitate NATzO Propaganda and make small and irrelevant incidents look Big and Blow them out of proportion. A thread should be started where a list of these NATzO Dogs is shown to expose them and serve as a warning to other users.