nomadski Mon Feb 13, 2023 5:05 am
Littlerabbit wrote " I was thinking a lot about last year's SMO/СВО in ex-Ukraine. At first it looks like they wanted to finish it quickly, with help of some elements inside Ukraine, but that plan failed and they were forced to adjust their actions to new reality. Personally, I believe they were too slow in their reaction (mobilisation etc.), but I don't have enough data to claim this. Now it's a different thing, but it still looks like Russian troops are waiting for something (NATO invasion or whatever, I don't know).Some of Russia's military activities reminds me on Russian strategy in Syria: slowly, but firmly, step by step.Russia, Iran and Syria needed practically 3 or 4 years to liberate most of the country, so Russia might need few more years for ex-Ukraine, if this tempo of operations continues.I'm not an expert of any sort (only observer), so I could be very wrong. I'm interested what you guys think about this, what are similarities (if any) and differences between Russian military activities in Syria and ex-Ukraine, especially in last few months? dunno . "
You do not need to be expert or military to comment here , just logical with something useful to say backed by evidence , that gets a reply ! And you are right , the plan initially was a large pincer , to cut Ukrs in half along River . A good plan that would create an Eastern Russian and Western Ukrs zones , to allow disengagement of and retreat of Ukrs forces . But this force was not enough to do the job , but no blame to planners at the time , given the relative smaller Nazi forces and friendly Russian population , it was easy to make this estimation . They acted within the information , they had at the time . But circumstances changed and the Nazis were able to gather forces , riding on nationalistic ferver and armed with NATO weapons , sent forces against Russia . But it also appears now many things about the SMO itself : First Russia may not be willing to take large casualties , second that Russia will not escalate in kind to NATO , third that Russia is not willing to win a short war against NAZI , but is willing to prolong a war of attrition , eventually negotiating with them !
What Russia is willing ( not a matter of capability so much , or what Russia can or can not do ) imposes itself on the developing situation . And this new situation must be taken into account by planners . It means greater flexibility in setting war aims , and willingness to make difficult choices . I know Russian troops are making progress and their efforts and sacrifice should be recognised , but winning territory and holding it are different things . It could turn out that Ukraine itself , will turn into a fighting frontier or buffer zone in the long term . Lacking in a population , with on going battles and fluid frontlines . In this situation then , having a dream of turning the Russian zone , into a model city and civilians returning , may be just a dream . The remaining populations , both Russian and Ukrainian , may have to leave also . The Russians back to Russia and Ukrs to Europe . Given new realities that is .