Russian special military operation in Ukraine #39

The difference is that the Ukraine has more serious air defense means and there isn't a narrow trail through the jungle whose location is known, but exactly the same openness that you are referring to

And in order to attack something, first you must locate it. And if you do locate it, then in order to attack it from long-range, you must be able to track it in real time. Neither of those is that easy to do. That's for what concerns individual trucks.

And sending up Tu-22M3s, Tu-95s to carpet bomb whatever routes you identify is not really an option; firstly because they run the risk of being shot down, even if the S-300s have by now been mostly disabled - and secondly & most importantly; the Ukrainians will simply adopt a new route as soon as you start bombing any ones they use currently.

It makes sense to simply bomb targets of opportunity that you do happen to identify and track, any sort of specific important shipments you get intelligence on in advance, and maybe send up some drones and get long-range artillery to shell trucks as they come closer in. It goes without saying that destroying the destinations of said arms convoys; temporary warehouses, ammo dumps and so on - is an even more efficient approach.

DPR military ready to knock out Leopard 2 tanks, 02.28.2023.

Commander of "Abkhaz": DPR military are not afraid of Leopard 2 tanks and are ready to knock them out.

DONETSK, February 28 - RIA Novosti. The military of the DPR are preparing to knock out Leopard 2 tanks and believe that they will not change the balance of forces at the front, the commander of the Rus battalion, lieutenant colonel with the call sign Abkhaz, told reporters on Tuesday.

"The same as with all equipment - knocking out. (Fear) is not at all. Of course, the guys look at different articles. Well, where to poke there - under the turret, as usual. The tank will stop anyway, sooner or later they will knock it out anyway. They shoot several times, but they shoot down - it's a "Tiger" or "Panther" or "Ferdinand" of some kind," Abkhaz said, answering the question whether the military of the DPR is preparing to knock out new German tanks.

The supply of this equipment will not change the general tendency to break the resistance of Ukrainian nationalists, "Abkhaz" believes.

"No matter how many missiles you give them. This HIMARS - how much trouble these missiles have done. Nevertheless, did someone turn off the road? Does anyone think otherwise? No, on the contrary, it unites everything," Abkhaz believes.

The Minister of Defense of Poland , which announced the transfer of up to 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Kiev as part of an international coalition, said on February 24 that Leopards were already in Ukraine . Also "Leopards" will be supplied to Ukraine by Germany , the manufacturer of these tanks, Spain , Canada , Finland . Earlier, adviser to the acting head of the DPR, Yan Gagin , said that Leopard 2 had already been seen in the Artemovsk region.

In addition, in January, the United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, which for the first time included 31 Abrams worth $400 million.

Russia has previously sent a note to NATO countries because of the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that any cargo that contains weapons for Ukraine will become a legitimate target for Russia. The Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation stated that the NATO countries are "playing with fire" by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov noted that pumping Ukraine with weapons from the West does not contribute to the success of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and will have a negative effect.

https://ria.ru/20230228/tanki-1854853026.html

Situation doesn't look good for the AFU in Bakhmut. My only fear is that the conflict could become frozen after this battle (as it did after the battle for Donetsk airport), but I think that is not very likely to happen.

According to MOD of Russia , they have destroyed 20,000 ground targets and several hundred air targets . Did they destroy these with Aircraft ? Supposing they just used Aircraft to destroy ground targets , and that the average lifespans of Aircraft is about ten ground targets destroyed for one Aircraft . Therefore if Russia just used Aircraft then to destroy 20,000 targets they would loose 2000 Aircraft ! The potency of SAM is far greater than Vietnam . Now I am all for using Aircraft in ground support , as long as there are enough set aside for Nuclear forces to carry Nukes . But the rest could be used against obvious targets like Bridges and Tunnels to stop supplies , not just dirt Roads near frontlines . A plane carries enough to destroy Tunnel or Bridge . You do not need Nukes for it . The Bridges are useless to keep for Russia , since they would blow them up as soon as Russia wants to cross to confront NATO in the West .

The decisive battle for Russia is scheduled for spring, by Dmitry Bavyrin for RIANOVOSTI. 02.28.2023.

To the statement of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky about the preparation of the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Crimea, Russia has long had a ready answer - "just try, clown." Unfortunately this answer doesn't fit anymore. Because the "clown" will inevitably try.

A “big counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” is scheduled for this spring, and, as almost everyone believes, in the direction of Crimea. This decision is not so much even Zelensky's, it is a single-digit stake of the USA and NATO in the current conflict. A month ago, they spoke about this in semi-hints, but now they are talking openly, because hiding preparations for an offensive is simply stupid: tanks, for example, are not needed for other purposes, and this season Kiev is supported mainly by tanks.

The purpose of the counter-offensive is to inflict a local military defeat on the Russian Armed Forces and thereby prove to the skeptics that Kyiv's multibillion-dollar support brings results. If, along the way, Ukraine manages to occupy Crimea, the West will not object - and this is also stated openly.

In general, this is not clowning, it is much worse. This is a direct and immediate threat to the security and territorial integrity of Russia with the use of modern NATO weapons. That's why the jokes are over.

The measure and practice of response will be determined by the Russian command. But already now it is necessary to proceed from the fact that a peaceful dialogue with Kiev and its allies is impossible, and the very idea of ​​such a dialogue is infantile (with all due respect to the Chinese peacekeeping initiatives, rejected by both Kiev and the West). Until the bet on an attack on the territory of Russia plays out, these people will not calm down, neither threats nor exhortations will affect them. They now have all the hopes for this bet, like a gambler mired in debt.

However, responsible politics differs from casinos in that all involved need to give themselves an honest answer to the question "what if not?". What to do if this game is lost by Ukraine, if the Ukrainian army is thrown back, and Kyiv loses control over the next territories?

There they have, in the West, it seems, after all, a casino. Because the first more or less intelligible answer, millions of those asking "what if not" received only the other day. For a whole year before, theses like “we will support Ukraine as long as necessary” were repeated, even if they seemed to be false not only to skeptics (the simpler Anglo-Saxons also know - never say never, never say never).

It is significant that such an answer was given not by the powers that be and not even by a politician, but by the tabloid Bild , the most widely read newspaper in Germany . Referring to sources in the government of Germany and the United States, they write that the promises to support Kyiv "to the bitter end" are a bluff and window dressing. In reality, Zelensky was given an ultimatum until autumn: if the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails, Ukraine will be forced to negotiate with Russia, using arms supplies and other assistance as leverage.

Bild edition is "yellow", format "chancellor and boobs", but informed and truly popular. You can not believe him, but you can believe, especially since what is written looks logical and sensible. One thing is confusing: if the political processes around Ukraine over the past ten years were subject to logic and common sense, the SVO would not be required.

It seems that the main purpose of the publication is to calm the disturbed German public, suggesting that this horror is not endless. After all, it is the German public that is losing more from the current conflict than any other (with the exception of the Ukrainian one), and the policy of the form “only a military defeat of Russia will suit us” inevitably rests on its historical trauma.
In reality, nothing so far (except for Bild) speaks in favor of the fact that the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is really a "last attempt". The next round, a new chance, another collection of weapons from the bins of NATO is already guessed, only the emphasis will most likely be placed on combat aviation (they say, it will definitely work with airplanes) and even more long-range missiles. If for persuasiveness it is necessary to organize a terrible provocation a la Bucha, there will be a provocation. If a nuclear bomb is in the hands of the Kyiv regime, it will also be blown up.

In the West, they probably believe that they are able to prevent an extreme development of events, but the world remembers many golems who went against their American creators. Even if we take only the latest wars with the participation of the United States, these are the Afghan Mujahideen, and the Syrian Islamists, and personally Saddam Hussein, whom America supported at the first stage, including during the war of conquest against Iran.

In general, many things are possible in the future, including very terrible ones. Bild suspiciously underestimates both the power of inertia (entering negotiations means for Zelensky that tens of thousands of lives and square kilometers were wasted by him, after this they shoot), and the significance of further containment of Russia as a priority for Western elites. No matter how much the peace-loving part of the Germans and other European peoples would like, in case of a tactical loss in such cases, they do not play scenes like “well, it didn’t work out, well, I’ll go, perhaps.”

But at one point, the publication sees the root - where it does not contradict anyone. The "spring counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" is one of the main events of the year, which will have long-term consequences. This is a crash test for Russia's ambitions and a really significant round, the loss of which could cost her dearly.

In case of our success, we should not be Germans and lull ourselves with hopes - then there will be new rounds. An end to them will be put only by a fundamentally different military-political reality in the formerly Ukrainian territories, which will be impossible to deny (for example, the lack of access to the sea for the Ukrainian regime).

But even then it will not be "as before", just as "as before" did not come after the war in Korea or the conflict over West Berlin . The Cold War didn't just last longer than the "hot" ones - it literally consisted of them.

Our allies are the same, tried and tested, reliable - the army and the navy. Being usually in the status of circumstances - a kind of background for big politics, they are now administering this big politics. It depends only on their strengths and weaknesses when negotiators, diplomats, lawyers and all those with whom hopes for a peaceful resolution of the conflict are connected will be able to join the work on settling the pan-European crisis.

Sooner or later, things will come to them - and specifically Ukraine will be affected earlier than the system of international security. It is with the restructuring of the latter under new circumstances that the end of the global conflict should be linked, and not with whether Zelensky will be sent new tanks after his "march to the Crimea."

The ingloriously devastating end of such a "campaign" is Russia's primary goal in 2023, the only acceptable response to the threats of the President of Ukraine. This development of events was imposed on us, and we not only obey, but we cannot cancel it.

Then there is still a long and difficult path ahead, but right now we have come to a fork in the road that will open a new chapter in the Russian history textbook. Of course, it will not be Zelensky who will write it, and we know this, but now it is necessary to prove this not in blogs, not in the media, not in official comments, not in negotiations, and in general - not with arguments from the realm of words.

The battle for a peaceful resolution of the conflict has already been lost. The battle for Russia is scheduled for spring.

https://ria.ru/20230228/bitva-1854750088.html

Post Dr.Snufflebug Today at 6:41 pm
Videos of civilians that have hid in Bakhmut-area basements for months but emerged once Russians secured the area are popping up.
Even Ukrainians admitted as much multiple times, "the locals are waiting for the Russians", "the locals are giving away our positions"...

Tons of materials on how the locals are denying Ukro evacuation.
And tons of Ukrowehrmacht whining about how they can't trust the local population.
And whom they await ...

Boomerangs supposedly headed to the SMO zone:

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/35438

Multiple drones shot down over the sea of Azov, their target appears to have been Yeisk AFB.

RU sources say none got through air defences.

edit: Yep, those are Boomerangs. That's cool.

Drones shot down on the way to Yeisk, and the week prior we had those converted drones shot down on their way to Mariupol

Hopefully that's all the Ukraine's PR-attacks out the way for the near future, although of course this can't be assumed

Imagine the howling from doomers here if one of these attacks succeeded even partially. But since they didn't it will all be swiftly forgotten about as if nothing happened.

famschopman wrote:

Looks like the first Leopard is already destroyed. There is a comment that this one is from Syria but could be copium.

https://twitter.com/75Sukhoi/status/1630461998441054209

We had this picture in Syrian thread in 2018.

This twitter poster is making things up or posting for clout, like 99% of them

Rybar update

Something burning around Kherson

VDV dudes

I have just realized, that some number of Tu drones was delivered in WarPac times to Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and GDR.
So they MIGHT have some pieces left, or some parts to share.

Yet I find the story amazing.
Houties achieved multiple hits in strategic Saudi infrastructure.
Covered with all sorts of Patriots, THAAD included.
E-3 hovering all around, because that is a strategic region.
F-15s all overhead.
Carrier groups in a radar range.
Operated by the US breed mercs and regular soldiers.
And nobody is commenting on how much of a failure it is.
Nobody pays for that.
So I hope that our doomer team gets at least a $2 coupon for Walmart or something.
Otherwise, it would be just being stupid.

Ukros sending more reinforcements. Because the city is strategically important. 
A week ago they claimed the tiny little settlement is completely useless.

This guy is insane and awfully lucky to be alive. Click on it for the interview.

Noone is saying that Russia would not get hit , ofc it will happen as it is a war

But if you stay on a static front line, in a high intensity war with a neighboring state, then wtf do you expect? Ofc some of those attacks will get through

Which brings us to the next point.

Why tf is there a static front line with a rabid enemy like Ukraine, so close to the border?

Push them back, and noone will care whether they strike some Ukrainian towns - sad but it's the truth

So the prerogative and lesson from this is?

Push the ukronazis back several hundred km, and then let the army monkeys play Verdun with the VSU

But until then, the VKS needs to have the chains removed, and help to move the border to the dnieper at least

And yes, the VKS can do this very easily - the only worry is, for 1 year you have told all pro russian followers that you did not do it to save civilians

So if you do start, now you look like an inhumane baby killer

So good job cheerleaders, you've done an excellent job of painting us into a corner

I been trying to point this out for months. Russia has no propaganda strategy at all. The domestic bloggers arent propagandists at all. They are negative biased critics. Like local sports newspaper columnists

Shit if they don't want to criticize it's on them

400k dead and wounded - better to not be like them

That American merc made the right call

I don't believe he had it planned out all along, but who knows.

Either way the testimony he's prepared to give and information he brought along will hopefully prove invaluable. He's also going to be a key target, so hope the FSB and he himself are prepared. That Polish soldier who defected to Belarus a couple of years ago and who took part in stopping refugee flows on the border was found hanged in his apartment in Minsk some months later.

Change of tone in this Finnish interview with a Finnish ex-officer in Kiev:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659

"Everyone just happily reiterates Ukrainian propaganda"
"Ukrainian soldiers are badly trained still"
"Russia ain't losing"
"Russia made some mistakes, but is learning from them. Ukraine isn't learning from its mistakes"
"Crimea is out of the question for Ukraine, same goes for Donbass"
"Ukraines recent territorial gains were solely because Russia withdrew without a fight"

etc

I worked over the Ugledar battle footage, looks way better now:

RF marines battle in Ugledar


Ukrainian Nationalists in battle in Bakhmut


RF collumn somewhere in Ukraine

Ho Chi Minh Trail was covered by a thick jungle, while in Ukraine, as some posters above have noted, big military concentrations are found in the open without being attacked.
There is a big difference between the two.

You are right, there is a difference... the territory Russia is fighting on is Russian land now so all those civilian trucks carrying food and other things to the area to support the civilians also travel the same route that the Nazi military use to send weapons so just destroying every single truck would lead to problems because many will be civilian vehicles transporting legal supplies to the people of the area, while the nazis will use such trucks to secretly transport military equipment... how do you tell?

The US didn't care, Russia does not want to kill its own citizens... it is the difference between Moscow and Kiev.

Some of these Ukrainian citizens are Russians waiting for Russian forces to liberate them from the nazis... you want to bomb them?

How American of you.

Even Ukrainians admitted as much multiple times, "the locals are waiting for the Russians", "the locals are giving away our positions"...

Being openly used as meatshields probably sobered these people up pretty quick about what sort of men Banderas men have always been.

And in order to attack something, first you must locate it. And if you do locate it, then in order to attack it from long-range, you must be able to track it in real time. Neither of those is that easy to do. That's for what concerns individual trucks.

You missed a very important step there FP... you also have to positively identify it as enemy combatants and not friendly units operating behind enemy lines or civilian vehicles carrying civilian loads.

Situation doesn't look good for the AFU in Bakhmut. My only fear is that the conflict could become frozen after this battle (as it did after the battle for Donetsk airport), but I think that is not very likely to happen.

Nazis will be nazis... they will keep shelling civilian areas and keep up with terrorist like attacks so Russia will be obliged to just keep pushing them back.

The BS around Moldova is another reason to keep pushing them back too.

Either way the testimony he's prepared to give and information he brought along will hopefully prove invaluable. He's also going to be a key target, so hope the FSB and he himself are prepared.

If he was really serious he should have hidden his identity and been rather more sensible... then he could have the choice of going back to the US at some stage, but now he has really burned his bridges...

The information he brought might be very useful, but revealing himself as a source really only has the one benefit of the Orcs now looking a lot harder at their foreign imports to work out whether they are doing the same thing... ie making them super paranoid...

Ok sure. Some people like their whining and criticism. And they think it actually helps. But does everyone over 50,000 followers have to do it ?

Did it ever occur to you that to get over 50K followers that is the BS they want to be fed... it is a cope machine and they deliver cope to the masses who just eat it up... they don't care if it is true or not... why would that matter?

When you bitch about Russia or complain I am sure the algorythms put your posts to the top of the search engine finds so you get more new readers...

If he was really serious he should have hidden his identity and been rather more sensible... then he could have the choice of going back to the US at some stage, but now he has really burned his bridges...

The information he brought might be very useful, but revealing himself as a source really only has the one benefit of the Orcs now looking a lot harder at their foreign imports to work out whether they are doing the same thing... ie making them super paranoid...

He should of yeah. In fact he should have just gone back to the US, and really, not even joined that den of vipers in the first place. Even if he's for real, then there are ways of helping the Russian cause that don't involve shooting at Russian forces, running 50 to 50 odds of getting blown up by them, and spending a whole year surrounded by neo-Nazi goons. And now probably having to remain in hiding for the rest of your life, as you better believe that the Bandera-lovers can be found everywhere; Moscow is no exception.

The fact that he didn't delete the Che Guevara pics from his Facebook before joining that Ukronazi outfit show that his plan wasn't particularly well thought-out, if he actually had this plan back then that is.
He'll need to get more serious about things now though; he's now a target.

But hey, if doing it this way, interview with RT and all, gives others potentially the idea of defecting - then that will be great. They should make sure they also bring some juicy info with them though, otherwise how is Russia supposed to know that they're not double agents