Russian special military operation in Ukraine #39

Ugledar was attacked by 1 BTG that was wiped out of its original 200 man compliment

There's nothing going on the front lines, so we are making much about absolutely nothing

155th Marines, are engaged to the extent of 1 or 2 BTGs that are rotated if the units infantry are combat ineffective

We are not seeing the bulk of the conscripted manpower because under the SMO designation those cannot fight outside of Russia unless we are in a "war"

Forgive the semantic bs, but that's the Russian constitution for you

As for Russian BTG it's something in neighborhood of 200 actual infantry , and 200 or so supporting and artillery

These numbers are not enough to conduct offensive operations which is why Shoigu revised the army reform to establish divisional sized units which are to be staffed with mobilized men

There is a key distinction between "mobilized" and "conscripted"

Mobilized are legally able to participate in these "SMO" conflicts

Idea came to mind about units loosing men and becoming " ineffective ." I think any survivors from failed / successful offensives , should be reconstituted within fresh units that will carry on with the offensives in the same area . They will be more involved in battle planning , since they gathered information about that particular front , IE; where the enemy troops are and their numbers and weapons , location of minefields and ATGW . In an iterative process , survivors from subsequent offensives are always reconstituted in new battle groups in leadership and planning . Especial rank given , for those surviving greatest number of offensives .

Balitsky predicted the peaceful transition of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa to Russia, 03.06.2023.

Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye region Balitsky predicted a peaceful transition of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa to Russia.

Acting Governor of the Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky on the air of the Crimea 24 TV channel said that he believes that a crisis will occur in Ukraine in the spring, as a result of which the Nikolaev, Odessa regions and Zaporozhye will peacefully pass to Russia.

He said that the authorities of the Zaporozhye region are talking to people who have connections with Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, they say that there is a very high degree of despondency in the territories controlled by Kiev, RIA Novosti reports.

“They understand the senselessness of this war, it finally comes to people, just as the Germans, while in Germany, understood the uselessness and senselessness of the war with the USSR. We need to change the regime, we need to change Hitler,” Balitsky believes.

In the fall of 2022, referendums were held in the republics of Donbass, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, local residents spoke in favor of returning to Russia. On October 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the admission of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into Russia.

https://vz.ru/news/2023/3/6/1201958.html

We are not seeing the bulk of the conscripted manpower because under the SMO designation those cannot fight outside of Russia unless we are in a "war"

Ah but most of the SMO, like Donbass, is now taking place in part of Russia.

And the Highway to Hell

AZ
@AZgeopolitics
AFU trying to get out of Bakhmut
through muddy fields

Bakhmut is under operational encirclement and the roads are under fire control from artillery, mortars and tanks of "Wagner".

"Wagner" using UAV's to follow AFU movements so it can coordinate the fire.

 I guess some MLRS carries sub ammo just falling.

According to BBC this are shovels, thrown by ill trained conscripts. 


T-64BV. Getting rare these days. I hope they keep a few for the museums.

I mean, Ukraine kills and castrates some Russian pows....doesn't stop russian troops from surrendering... and I can easily see this being legit, easy for some Russian solider to have just had a bad day, and someone irks and them and they decide to get "even" with how Ukie troops have treated his comrades wrote:

I get it, does not mean its not stupid or criminal.

JohninMk wrote:
Ah but most of the SMO, like Donbass, is now taking place in part of Russia

Don't matter - no war , no conscripts

It's an "SMO" so no matter where it is, conscripts cannot participate

I am not talking about 300k mobilized

I am talking about the 2 annual callups for all Russians

Those conscripts cannot participate in the SMO, as no war has been declared - indeed Donbass is Russia, but there are still strict limitations on the use of conscripts in conflicts which strictly forbid their use unless Russia is at war, and is at an existential risk

Until now, the Kremlin doesn't consider this situation as such

Which is why they are so undermanned on offense


The mobilized are indeed plugging gaps in defense, again I distinguish between them and conscripts,

And until training is completed, they will not join in any offensives

Russian helis above Chasiv Yar.

Lost stuff around Bakhmut

Russian Marines with some flag they found.

Alexander, the gift that keeps on giving.


Summary of Bakhmut cauldron.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvAvj5Q_uQk

Ugledar is a "shaping battle"

We don't have the manpower to commit to large maneuver combat  -

So right now command is focused on "shaping" the battlefield for a large offensive

The shaping actions take place on Kremennaya, Ugledar, and Bakhmut,  each with their own reasons

1. Kremennaya, and eventually Liman, and the rest of the Kharkov area up to Oskol Reservoir, will be important for staging an attack on Slavyansk - you need Seversk, and the forest area north of Slavyansk which was lost last summer

2. Ugledar - this small village with high rise complex, is an anchor to the donbass cauldron. From here Ukros can prevent our advance past Marinka and Avdeyevka. We must take it, but without manpower, our marines must use limited manpower resources to prevent Ukros from amassing reserves here for their own eventual attack on Tokmak-Melitopol-Mariupol

In addition the main and only rail line from Mariupol to Donetsk runs southeast of Ugledar

The Ukro salient just south east of Ugledar is shouldered by both Ugledar and Marinka - that's why it is important to take Ugledar, to protect the logistic lines that run from Donetsk to Mariupol

3. Artemovsk/Bakhmut - this is a blackhole of Ukro meat, the reason Podolyak, Zelensky,  Syrsky and Co. Cannot give up Bakhmut, is that they would lost the initiative for the eventual Tokmak offensive

In the end all 3 of these shaping operations, are important for our own large offensive, but we cannot launch such an offensive until the bureaucracy for 10+ divisions is ready

The general staff has taken 6 months creating these structures, training the mobilized, staffing CO and NCO positions, quadrupling vehicle and armament production to equip the new divisions

That's why Ugledar-Bakhmut-Kremennaya are so important - we need time for our own offensive to take shape

Russkie shovels stock will last only till Sunday.

That shill again?

He is pro-z shill in disguise.

Ukraine is facing an imminent disaster in Bakhmut, time to deflect and spin some 'good news'!

He was asked to do it last month when he was covering Bakhmut and he draws it as absolute meatgrinder for Ukrainians

Who said Russia wanted to capture Ugledar?

Russian actions, multiple pushes, the commitment of 155, urban combat inside the city itself

Don't suppose anyone here has ever heard of reconnaissance in force, or attacking targets of opportunity.

The video covers more than recon by fire. For that there are DRG groups, not armored platoons and insertion in to the city. Russia has not enough manpower to use reconnaissance by force in this manner. And what did they recon? Minefields that were already been cleared?

If the opportunity is not there and the enemy pulls up reinforcements then the opportunity is not there. Try somewhere else. This goes back to Soviet Cold War-era doctrine. Attack all across the front, but where you are facing resistance, arrest the advance and reassign units to those directions where advances have been more successful.

Not the focus of this video, but it covers multiple operations and pushes near the Ugledar. Like two operations near Dachas that were typical insertion and exploitation.

Anyways, his video is not bad, but it has holes and cringe editing. At first he said that "russians didn't think to check the for the mines" while it's known that UR-77 and sappers cleared it, but remote mines were scattered with artillery during the actual advance. Not sure how can anyone clear the mines while they are literally raining in front and behind you. He mentioned that.

He also dismantles how "paused" video was used to add up the losses when vehicles were actually operational and other NAFO bot bullshit.

Some interesting videos by Russian marines from 155 in Datcha
https://t.me/c/1633131143/26660

They take over one of the datcha, kill Ukrainian soldier running outside, there are two Ukrainian KIAs inside the building too, marines call fire support on nearby house and leave.



72th Brigade took over Ukrainian trenches near Ugledar
https://t.me/Ugolok_Sitha/12191

Remains of shot down KA-52 near Ugledar - Russians are inspecting it. Pilots survived... And ATGMs too!
https://t.me/ChDambiev/22607

Vladimir Solovyov visited marines near Ugledar and they were shelled during his visit. No 200/300 luckily.
https://t.me/SolovievLive/162052

Russian forces control almost half of Artemovsk, 03.07.2023.

Pushilin's adviser Gagin: Russian forces control almost half of Artemovsk.

MOSCOW, March 7 - RIA Novosti. Russian forces control almost half of Artemovsk, Jan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the DPR, said on the air of the Rossiya 24 TV channel.

"Our artillery and our troops are already in the city, and they control almost half of Artemovsk," he said.

According to a spokesman for the region, small groups of Ukrainian troops are chaotically retreating along country roads. At the same time, the asphalt roads leading to the city are broken and controlled by Russian artillery, and the muddy roads prevent the enemy from moving reinforcements along country roads.

As Gagin noted the day before, about ten thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the city.

Sergei Rakhmanin, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, earlier called the situation in Artemovsk critical. At the same time, on Monday, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valeriy Zaluzhny, called for the continuation of the defensive operation in the city.

https://ria.ru/20230307/artemovsk-1856298706.html

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
1/3 According to incoming information, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to have big problems with the retreat from Bakhmut towards Chasov Yar.

According to the Military Chronicle, the retreating units of the Ukrainian army massively leave heavy equipment in the city and suburbs due to fears of artillery strikes by PMC Wagner and aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.  The light equipment used for the retreat cannot cope with off-road conditions.

On muddy roads, pickup trucks and cars get stuck and roll over, after which their use becomes impossible.

Infantry units abandon heavy weapons along the roads, leave only with small arms and almost instantly fall under artillery strikes.

http://t.me/vicktop55/13305

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
2h
Tu-22M Strategic Bombers are now reported Airborne from Shaykovka Airbase in Western Russia.

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
2h
At least 4 Russian Missiles Carriers with an armament of around 24 3M-54 Kalibr Cruise Missiles are reported to now be Active in the Black Sea.

The Russians are building fortifications in preparation for Ukraine's summer offensive.

A few days ago but I haven't seen it before. Is this the winged 1500?

Have been quite occupied. Why all that talk about shovels?

Some cool maps showing the difficulty at Ugledar



Marines attacked along the treeline before it was mined. Ukrainians were shocked and had to divert reserves to Ugledar to push back



These are the ukro reserves brought in to reinforce ugledar



Our guys ended losing the center and fell back to the towns outside, while Ukros rushed into the treeline and mined it all

Now the question is, how to proceed? Marines conduct small raids into the dachas but still have no way into the city itself

Seems the objective is to take the coal mine now - but if more manpower is not allocated, it could end like the first time, ukros just reinforce anywhere marines advance , and fix our forces in the open with artillery from marinka

With more manpower, they won't know what to defend as more advances can be made in different directions