https://rtvi.com/stories/speczoperacziya-zakonchitsya-kogda-putin-prodemonstriruet-krasnuyu-knopku-polkovnik-aviaczii-viktor-alksnis-o-perspektivah-konflikta-na-ukraine/
Some key quotes:
"The special operation will end when Putin demonstrates the red button." Aviation Colonel Viktor Alksnis on the prospects for the conflict in Ukraine
[...]
I am very upset by the actions of our aviation in Ukraine. On February 28, that is, literally four days after the start of the special military operation, our General Staff reported that the air defense of Ukraine had been suppressed and Russian aviation had gained air supremacy. In the early days, attempts were indeed made to suppress the air defense of Ukraine, but then, for an unknown reason, this activity was stopped.
Our aviation began to suffer losses. Basically, from the portable anti-aircraft missile systems of the Stinger type delivered to Ukraine (the Stingers themselves have not yet been used). It turned out that we had nothing to oppose to the massive use of MANPADS. It did not work out to use the Syrian version of front-line aviation, our strike aviation - Su-27, Su-35, Su-34 and Su-24.
In Syria, the militants had very few MANPADS. We went there to medium heights - more than 5000 meters, where militants could not reach MANPADS. In Syria, our aviation worked out quite effectively and there were practically no losses. Obviously, based on this Syrian experience, we believed that we would repeat the same thing in Ukraine. But it didn't work out.
You said that aviation does not fly because air defense is not suppressed. We saw the conflict in Yugoslavia, where the air defense was suppressed. They quickly suppressed air defense during the eastern conflicts, where the Americans operated. Why does Russia have problems with this? Was it really unknown about the state of Ukraine's air defense? Surely it consists of Russian or Soviet types of air defense.
You are absolutely right. In the initial period of hostilities, Ukraine had a rather weak air defense system. There were a number of Soviet air defense systems there: the famous S-300s, but the first modifications, that is, outdated, made in the 70s, they had rather limited capabilities, and there were Buks. Well, some other means of military air defense.
To make it clear, to suppress air defense, a complex, well-planned operation is needed, when artillery, missile forces, and aviation are involved. In the first days of the military conflict, air defense strikes began, it looked like a large-scale operation, and then, as I said, all this stopped.
Why?
I see it this way: the infantry said that the suppression of air defense is the business of aviation. You are dealing with this problem, we have our own tasks. This situation amazes me, because the commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, General Sergei Surovikin, also led the grouping in Ukraine, and, it would seem, he, as commander-in-chief, had to impose his will and force everyone to use everything at their disposal to destroy Ukrainian air defense. And after that, our aviation would have gone and, with the help of anti-radar missiles, would have destroyed anti-aircraft missile systems.
Yes, the problem of portable air defense systems would remain. But there is already experience here, and our front-line aviation could go to medium altitudes, 5,000 meters and hit objects from there, perhaps with worse accuracy, but it could strike at the operational rear of Ukraine and solve the problem of isolating the combat area.
So what is the reason anyway?
Disunity of actions. Moreover, it is not clear what caused it. Do they really not understand that it is impossible to fight today without aviation? Aviation is one of the most important strike branches of the armed forces, which must ensure air supremacy and, accordingly, then it is already possible to think about the interests of the ground forces and carry out all necessary actions with them.
I served in the Air Force for 25 years and took part in exercises, including those of a strategic plan and scale. As an officer of the headquarters of the Baltic District, I participated in the work of the main headquarters of these exercises. I saw what close interaction there was between aviation, ground forces, sailors. Everyone blew the same tune.
Please open the term - "isolation of the combat area."
Without the work of aviation, there will be no destruction of infrastructure, and without the destruction of bridges across the Dnieper, railways, transport hubs, and so on, so on, so on, it is impossible to win. And this is the task of aviation. This is called the isolation of the war zone. Simply put, this is a blockade with the help of aviation, which bombs, razes to the ground, all roads, all transport communications and does not allow movement towards the front along them. And even from the front, when the wounded are taken out, the equipment is faulty for repairs.
For the first time in 100 years of recent military conflicts, we do not use aviation to isolate a combat area. It is impossible to do this with calibers alone, and they are not intended for this. This situation, as an aviation man who has devoted his whole life to aviation, is very upsetting for me, and obviously we will have to draw conclusions from what happened.
Without isolating the war zone, our fighters fight the hydra, cut off one head, another grows in its place. Now nothing prevents the enemy from delivering reinforcements, ammunition, military equipment to the front line. In addition, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and his entourage roam freely almost along the front lines and are not attacked.
[...]
Mopeds, as the people call "Geran-2", hit the energy infrastructure, how do you assess the effectiveness of these strikes? There is an opinion that it is inhumane to hit substations, civilians suffer.
I am a supporter of strikes against the critical infrastructure of Ukraine. Just to these philanthropists who say “well, how can Russia bomb and shoot, that Russia is causing damage to the civilian population,” I will remind the situation of the Second World War. Did the Americans and the British think about the civilian population of the German cities of Dresden, Hamburg and others? They demolished entire cities, not just military installations.
The USA and England hit the civilian population, they destroyed hundreds of thousands of German civilians. It was a deliberate military operation, which they call such a term as the demoralization of the civilian population of the enemy. They achieved their goals in many ways. We remember the shots of May-April in Berlin, when white flags stick out from all the windows.
In our case, there is a problem with the demoralization of the population. Attacks on infrastructure, on the one hand, seem to be carried out, but on the other hand, the feeling that this is done simply to put a tick: "we hit critical infrastructure" does not leave. The question is, why do we not touch the basis of this critical structure? These are high-voltage lines of 750 kV, on which the energy system of Ukraine rests today.
They feed nuclear power plants.
I'm not saying that nuclear power plants should be bombed, but there is a huge energy infrastructure around them, distribution nodes, transformer substations, and so on. These objects are not hit. We are bombing the energy structure with 350 kilowatts, this is unpleasant, but the energy system works through the use of high-voltage infrastructure.
Some experts believe that we do not want to completely disable the energy system, because then we will not be able to pump gas to Europe. If this is so, then it turns out that the interests of commercial structures, the interests of those who own the ammonia pipe and everything else, are higher than the national interests of Russia. Under such conditions, it is wrong to conduct a military operation. Inconsistency in strikes against critical infrastructure will not lead to good. It's like the owner who takes pity and does not kill a dying dog so that it does not suffer, while cutting off its tail in pieces.
As for the civilian population, well, we do not carry out carpet strikes on cities. All strikes, as a rule, are of a point nature. Yes, there were accidents, let's call it friendly fire, when they wanted to bomb transformer substations and a rocket hit a residential building, or a Ukrainian missile shot down this missile, and the debris fell into a residential building.
But we did not want to intentionally inflict damage or strike on the civilian population, unlike Ukraine, which hits several cities without hesitation and in the center, and in shopping centers, and anywhere. And it is she who strikes along the way and at the critical structure. After all, Donetsk has been without water for several months and without electricity all the time. But our peace-loving people are silent about this, just as they were silent when in 2017 Ukraine cut off water from the North Crimean Canal to Crimea, blew up power lines, leaving Crimea without electricity. It was a blockade. For some reason, no one was particularly indignant that it was inhumane.
What is the goal of the US
Ukraine's goal is to defeat Russia and return to the 1991 borders, but what is the goal of the United States?
In the 18th century, scientists conducted an experiment trying to boil a frog. So, when a frog is thrown into a pot or into a cauldron of boiling water, it immediately jumps out of there. And if you throw a frog into cold water and slowly, slowly raise the temperature of the water, then the frog will sit still and, in the end, will boil alive.
NATO and the US are superior to us in conventional weapons. And we are not in a position to fight the US and NATO with conventional weapons. But Russia today is the only country in the world that can destroy the US, just like the US can destroy Russia. No other country, not China, not Iran, not North Korea, can destroy the United States. And America understands this. They are afraid, and therefore move in small steps.
They raise the degree in the cauldron slowly. Each time delivering more and more advanced modern technology. But they control the scale of deliveries and slightly squeeze them. Ukraine asks, conditionally, for 1,000 units of Bradley, and they give it 200 or 100. And they are watching what Russia will do? Russia is silent. And, well, let's put the tanks. And Russia is silent. Oh, let's supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles. This is how the United States boils Russia-frog.
We are very much stuck in Ukraine and voices are heard that we may even be defeated if this strange military operation continues in this way, but at the same time the West understands that if Russia really hits the table with its fist like Nikita Khrushchev, then we will have to negotiate .
Should nuclear weapons be used?
Putin needs to do... what?
Today, we see a viscous tactic and constantly closed eyes to the intersection of endless red lines. A la guerre comme à la guerre and, as you know, in special military operations, the weak are beaten.
The West understands that if President Putin slams his fist on the table and really shows the red button, he will say: “Dear gentlemen, our sworn partners, our patience is over. We have been persuading you for 20 years, we have asked you, we have convinced you. You thought it was a sign of our weakness. If anything, then my hand, press the button, will not flinch.
I think that by demonstrating political will and determination to go all the way, we could ease the tension with Ukraine and resolve the conflict, achieving all the goals that Russia wanted.
There is an opinion that the use of tactical nuclear weapons could be a signal to the West
This is the last 384th warning, which will show the West that Russia's patience has run out, that there will be no more warnings. Let me remind you that in August 1945, when the US used nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they had two reasons for this. Firstly, to save the lives of their soldiers, because it was about the need to occupy the territory of Japan, and this could lead to heavy fighting. Accordingly, the death of American soldiers. Secondly, to demonstrate to the whole world the presence of this most powerful weapon in the world. And not only to the world, but also to the Soviet Union, so that, as they say, it does not rock the boat.
Today Russia is in the same position as the US was in 1945. We need to save the lives of our soldiers and demonstrate to the US and its allies that we have a club against them and we are ready to use it if necessary. I am convinced that in this situation the West will appreciate the determination and negotiations will immediately begin, and we will get what we want - security guarantees for our country and no military blocs on the border.
I believe that the use of tactical nuclear weapons is indispensable. Let me remind you that a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon of enormous power that demolishes cities and leaves New York or Washington as a desert, while tactical nuclear weapons are a battlefield weapon of low power with a radius of destruction of a kilometer. Tactical nuclear weapons are designed to destroy bridges, airfields, tunnels, and large transport hubs. But these are the goals we talk about all the time! Separately, I note that I am a categorical opponent of the use of nuclear weapons against cities and large settlements.
A worthy goal is the famous Beskydy Tunnel in the Carpathians, through which 60% of all arms supplies to Ukraine go by rail. In June 2022, we tried to destroy it with the help of "Caliber" - the result is zero. And if one tactical nuclear charge had been thrown there, then this tunnel would no longer exist.
[...]
I will remind you of the famous statement by the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said that there are traitors in the presidential administration. This was unexpected for me, because all the same, Prigozhin is in contact with Putin and has access to the presidential administration, and suddenly such a harsh statement. But I agree with him, we have a party of betrayal.
All attempts to reduce it to negotiations are a reflection of those who want to stop hostilities at any cost and quickly come to terms with the defeat of Russia. They want to return the opportunity to go to a London apartment, return to their dacha in Nice, fly freely around the world, have bank accounts. They want to be citizens of the world, and Russia only hinders them.
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billybatts91
In Kupyansk direction, the 'Zapad' Group of Forces inflicted fire on enemy manpower and hardware in the areas of Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), Dvurechnaya, Gryanikovka, Masyutovka, Olshana, Liman Pervy, and Sinkovka (Kharkov region).
More than 70 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles have been eliminated in this diretion during the day.
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
In total, 390 airplanes and 211 helicopters, 3,248 unmanned aerial vehicles, 406 air defence missile systems, 8,058 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,045 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,228 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,574 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
