The restraints were because of fighting between the pro destroy Ukraine faction and pro save Ukraine faction,
There was open discussion of military and political options in the Duma
On one hand, Putin, Peskov, Medinsky, all favored a peaceful resolution to the war
And on the other hand Medvedev who said Ukraine should cease to exist , the governor of Belgorod Vyacheslav Gladkov (after belgorod battle), The Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Yury Shvytkin also opined to annex Kharkov, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov also agrees to expand the war, then you have various analysts and commentators who began to speak after Belgorod shelling, DRG penetration, Moscow hit by drones , and so on that it was necessary to carve more territory out
Putin immediately limited them, and May 30th said,
“Basically, the territory that is called Ukraine”, Putin said, using the geographic term instead of the political and legal one, “was virtually controlled from the very beginning by people who, being led by the West, took the path of not just confronting Russia, but creating an “anti-Russia” on that territory… We are striking at the territory of Ukraine, but with long-range precision weapons, at military infrastructure facilities only, either at ammunition or fuel and lubricants warehouses used for combat operations. We have talked about the possibility of striking at decision-making centres. Of course, the headquarters of Ukrainian military intelligence is one of them, and a strike at this target was carried out two or three days ago. In response, the Kiev regime has chosen a different path – attempts to intimidate Russian citizens with strikes at residential buildings. This is an obvious terrorist approach.”
So he says, it will not be any big arrows, only attrition strategy
BUT A week later June 9th, he makes a statement again:
“First, we can safely state that the offensive has begun. We know this from the fact that the Ukrainian army tapped its strategic reserves. This is my first point. Second, the Ukrainian troops failed to achieve their goals in all combat sectors, which is clear as day…I cannot say that the offensive has got bogged down. All I can say is that the counteroffensive attempts that have been made so far failed. But the offensive potential of the Kiev’s regime is still there. I believe Russia’s military leadership is realistic in its assessments of the situation and will proceed from these realities as it continues to plan up our actions in the short term.”
Putin has given reigns of the SMO completely to the generals, he will not interfere in the Dnepr offensive
The political scales have tipped against his political solutions, and you have senior officials within the Duma which have parted from the peace dialogue
As Air defender ramps up, huge squadrons of Gripen, F18, eurofighter, and F35 will fly with tankers and AWACS cover missions for a Ukrainian general retreat across the Dnepr
The general staff is preparing for hybrid operations, similar to what happened with Nord stream during BALTOPS, that NATO will conduct distracting operations to get Putin to hit the brakes
But it won't happen, the military solution is in effect, once Russian ground based radar see the NATO jets approaching,it will signal that the Ukrainian offensive is dead,
And ours will go west - where, I cannot say but we understand and proceed from the fact that a big change has happened in the mood of the Kremlin, the white house and all other players involved
At the same time, Air Defender will try to mask the general retreat by overloading the Russian air defense systems and by paralyzing all military actions , by forcing us to focus on NATO, and perhaps rogue Ukrainians in F16s Striking symbolic targets in Crimea
Remember Putin said, July 8th is the deadline for Nuclear Iskander introduction to Belarus
If we proceed from the fact that Air Defender 2023 will go on for that timeline, he will scare NATO off with the nuclear weapons , and perhaps counter drills of our own, as we go to a full nuclear readiness at the height of the NATO offensive operation
And then a general March west to protect Belgorod, Bryansk, And capitalize on the Zaporozhye defensive operation into a counter offensive one