Prigozhin mutiny thread

Probably a pure coincidence and a little early (vide the NATO 11/7 meeting) but notice that this is taking all the pressure off the UA offensive failures plus the air out of the Zelensky 'Russia going to bomb ZNPP' PR campaign?

Airbornewolf wrote:first footage of engagements coming out from Wagner/RF Forces.

RF Forces bomb Wagner PMC convoy on the M-4 Motorway

Wagner PMC engages RF KA-52

Just imagine what went through the minds of those in the cabs of the following trucks

It seems that the Strella-10 that was diverted from the Ka-52 went on to hit the fuel depot.

From MoA

Machiavelli's warning against mercenaries:

The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain [i.e., the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are ruined in the usual way [i.e., you will lose the war].

Quotes from posters

Anyone accustomed to Putin's usual demeanor when addressing the nation, compared to this morning's address, can dismiss maskirovka techniques out of hand. The President appears to be seriously pissed off, I'd say. Putin's speech places Prighozin's mutiny in the context of today's existential threat to Russia.

Perhaps it sounds over-the-top to say our risk of nuclear annihilation, out here in USA, just ratcheted up another big notch. If our black-ops just turned Prighozin, then I'd expect there to be a few more layers to this cake they're baking. Keep your eye on that nuclear power plant.

Posted by: Aleph_Null

Just watched Putin's 5-1/2 minute speech. He does not look angry or pissed. He looks like he is acting. Is the entire political world become theatre?

Posted by: oldhippie

This is a serious blow to Russia's progress in the war and more broadly, any realistic peace prospects.

NATO's long term strategy was never to outright win militarily, but to grind Russia down, divert its resources to fighting a war and away for developing its economy and progressing its society. To a large extent, this failed in its maximalist ambitions. Nevertheless, it is also undeniable that this war came at a significant cost to its budget, trade relations and put the country under great pressure.

Leading up to a crucial NATO summit, Russia appeared to be gaining the upper hand in the battle and the futility of Ukraine's campaign was becoming apparent to a growing number of its supporters. The potential for a NATO reversal of policy was becoming a distinct possibility.

Prigozhin's folly may well be thwarted and dealt with within the day, but the ramifications of this event could bear long term consequences for Russia in its war with NATO. His foolish gambit must be seen as outright treason, not just in light of the armed insurrection, but the nature and timing of it too. On top of the long term geopolitical implications, there is also the immediate issue of destabilising the entire frontline through his interfering/blocking of the Rostov-Voronezh supply axis, and the inevitable blow to morale in the Armed Forces at a crucial juncture when they are under heavy attack in the UAF counteroffensive.

Most damaging of all though, the doubters and fence sitters in NATO will have been given a tasty morsel of the long dreamed of demise of Putin and collapse of the Russian Gov't. That is ultimately what NATO is hoping for as an acceptable win. The Russian military cannot be defeated, but Russia can always defeat itself from within, as it has done time and again before.

Unfortunately, this episode has given all the crazy neocons just what they needed too prove they are not delusional in their ambitions. It is just what they wanted to pour more fuel on the fire now.

A very sad day for both Russia supporters and all 'neutrals' just hoping for peace.

Posted by: Et Tu

Another thing worth considering: Prigozhin has made statements appealing to both anti-war and turbo-patriot camps as part of this bid.

- UKR had no intention of invading anyone
- Zelensky was ready to negotiate, RU turned him down
- DNR&LNR shelled by Russia since 2014, UKR propaganda all true
- Russian losses under-reported by 10x, Russian army being ground down by UKR
- RU intentionally under-utilizing its military potential against UKR
- State and military structures infiltrated by traitors
- Wagner represent patriotic opposition, intend to clean house and wage total war against West

All that's missing is throwing in something about the holohoax, British Crown controlling the world, splitting Russia along state lines and resuming normal trade relations with the West, and he'll have appealed to all opposition groups in Russia, marginal and otherwise.

Posted by: Skiffer

Bro, i think the psyop cope theory definitively already left the building last night to anyone with an IQ over 50, and never much featured as all that likely to any rational, objective and intelligent observer.

I could be wrong of course , but i think some serious and consequential sh1t is about to go down. You either bounce back 10x stronger and more determined and go scorched earth on all enemies, foreign and domestic, or you don't come back from something like this.

Erdogan came back stronger and he was merciless, but he also wasn't in the middle of fighting a major war to distract him, and he still had to shake hands a play nice with the same NATO folks who were behind the coup attempt on him.

What will Putin do? If this war has come to threaten the Russian State at its core, whatever the reason, and there are more than a few for many to see now are of his own doing, he has no choice but to escalate now and hope to wrap it up by putting the fear of God into NATO before they or others like Prighozhin smell more blood.

I suspect the only reason Prighozhin is still breathing is so he can sing about all those who put him up to this, or at the very least, to rule out any possibility of never finding out.

Posted by: Et Tu

When did Prighozin become the commander of the Wagner forces? When did he become part of the chain of command in any way? It has been pointed out repeatedly that he is just a businessman and chief publicist for Wagner. He has little to no real military experience, much less command experience. Can someone in that position actually issue military commands and have forces that are not technically or practically under his command obey? Command by social media, basically? Nonsense!

Moving multiple whole divisions around requires the efforts of the entire command staff from squad leaders up to major generals. The chef cannot just assume command and the troops self-organize in a huge mass to follow his orders. That is Hollywood silliness and fairy tales. Military formations have officer corps for a reason, and that is, even with well-trained troops, giving direction to more than a couple dozen soldiers at a time is like herding cats. One guy cannot command a division without an entire hierarchy of officers to coordinate and keep everyone on task.

So whatever is going on with Wagner, the entire officer corps is onboard with it. And Prighozin is not at the top of that chain of command.

Posted by: William Gruff

Werewolf wrote:The videos from the Wagner truck exploding the explosion comes from the inside not from either side which would indicate Vikhr killing it.
From all the videos it looks like I believe is just a big show like I said for political game. Prigozhin is an actor after all and he is good at it.
If this unfolds like I expect than I will say a big sorry to Russia for saying multiple times that they don't have any skill in marketing and PSYOPS.

A poster on MoA agrees with you

I am putting my money on maskirovka. The Russians excel at this.

EXAMPLE: Get Jake Sullivan to wildly speculate that the Russians will invade Ukraine with 6 or 7 divisions; seize the entire country; continue marching to Paris; and bottle up the Brits at Dunkirk. Then you deploy a couple of regiments around Kiev, just enough to cause Zelensky to pee his britches and redeploy all his forces to defend the OP residence, which leaves the rest of the country wide open so that Russia can send in troops to liberate 20% of the Country. MASKIROVKA!

EXAMPLE: Get a loudmouth like EV Prigozhin to complain publicly that his PMC fighters don't have ammo in Bahkmut and are not getting support from the Russian general staff. The UAR swallows the bait hook, line, and sinker and feeds in greater amounts of human flesh into the "meat grinder". Voila! Bahkmut becomes Artymovsk. MASKIROVKA!

Compared to crude NATO deception planning, Russian maskirovka is a thing of beauty because you can go for years and never know how the Russians trick-f_cked you. Unlike Schwartzkoff who publicly spiked the football with tales of his deception plan three days after Operation Desert Storm, Russians carry their secrets of maskirovka with them to their graves. They leave very few traces for aspiring officers at the Command and General Staff College and at the War College to study.

Russian maskirovka always has a goal. It is hard to guess what that goal might be. Perhaps cover for counter-insurgency operations on Russia's borders. Perhaps the Russians are inciting the Ukes to stop their "pause" and feed the meat grinders in Orikhiv or Vremenka since Russia is showing internal division. I cannot know what the Kremlin is thinking. But I will put my money on Maskirovka.

Posted by: MajorMike

Hadi Nasrallah
@HadiNasrallah
·
15m
It’s hilarious how Wagner group turned from a “genocidal militia committing war crimes” to an “anti-corruption rebellion group” in the western media. If NATO had the chance, they will arm Wagner and call them freedom fighters.