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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #47

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:31 pm

    Not that they are shitting themselves Smile

    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
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    "Russia has assembled 45,000 servicemen, about 500 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, more than 300 artillery systems and 150 MLRS in the Liman-Kupyansk direction"
    Head of the press service of the Eastern Group of AFU Ilya Yevlash

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Tue Aug 22, 2023 12:45 am


    There's some rumors floating around about a lost Chinese submarine around Taiwan. From what I can see, it is Taiwan shill media posting about it mostly.

    I'll post in the China Taiwan war thread if something comes of it.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:18 am

    Backman wrote:If Russia has 550,000+ troops being trained up and has a drone advantage, air advantage , cruise missile advantage, pretty much an everything advantage, I don't see how Russia cant do big arrow offensives with moderate/acceptable casualties.

    Large encirclements are the most economic way take troops out on the opposing side. This head to head offense/defense should not go on for another couple years. Russia cant press its advantage to the best of its ability in this head to head war.

    Russia is still grinding down the Ukr army which is hurling itself into oblivion against Russian forces. Why bother with "big arrow" offensives now when they can be
    staged later with much less resistance. Also, such dramatic moves stimulate NATzO into more radical action. The SMO is managing the Ukrs and their owners.

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:54 am

    Backman wrote:
    kvs wrote:We do not know how many of the 300,000 directly mobilized are being actively deployed.   There are 200,000+ volunteers on top of this number since
    last fall.   I doubt that Russia has 500,000 + 200,000 (pre-mobilization) men "at" the front (includes rotation).  

    We just don't know at this point. I think the 250,000 that Luka was talking about are different than the 300,000 that were called up in the fall of 2022. Luka was proud about how many volunteered. It wouldn't make sense for him to be proud of the 300k that were called up.

    So if we add the 2, we are looking at 550,000 excluding whatever is going on with Wagner and Belarus troops
    Before ANY of this happened there were already at least 200K involved in the SMO. I am sure some have completed their contracts and left. But its quite common that demobilized soldiers later regret and reup. Also I am sure many renewed with bonuses on offer. So it could easily be 700K
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    Post  mnztr Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:59 am

    https://t.me/fiftnmls/11400

    TOS01? No I think its the TOSS01

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    Post  Broski Tue Aug 22, 2023 5:47 am

    mnztr wrote:https://t.me/fiftnmls/11400

    TOS01? No I think its the TOSS01

    I wish thermobaric bombs with glide modules attached were used against every single stinky Ukronazi trench instead of having to send any russian soldiers in to clear the rats out.

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    Post  Airbornewolf Tue Aug 22, 2023 6:27 am

    mnztr wrote:https://t.me/fiftnmls/11400

    TOS01? No I think its the TOSS01

    Its footage from a year ago that has been cropped. Still shows an infantrymans worst nightmare Wink.

    In the link below you see the same footage at the 30 second mark.

    https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/RF-TOS-1A-strike-on-Ukrainian-troops-near-Kherson:e

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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Tue Aug 22, 2023 6:43 am

    When is Ukraine going to run put of AD missiles?
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    Post  ALAMO Tue Aug 22, 2023 7:15 am

    Airbornewolf wrote:
    Its footage from a year ago that has been cropped. Still shows an infantrymans worst nightmare Wink.

    In the link below you see the same footage at the 30 second mark.

    https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/RF-TOS-1A-strike-on-Ukrainian-troops-near-Kherson:e

    Yeah, Chochol Space Agency at it's best indeed.
    Interestingly, the salvo represents a very good accuracy and small dispersion. It suggests that it was shoot at small range. There are some materials where TOS is being used with extream precision and a single fire mode only. For any of those good enough to catch the details, missile arrives at a very high angle of attack, almost vertically, suggesting being delivered at a minimal ballistic range possible. That might be the cause of some TOS being picturously lost to Ukro FPVs. Those are very close t the battlefield, nobody cares of handling with them like the Ukrs are doing with HIMARS ...

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Tue Aug 22, 2023 7:57 am

    The US State Department approved the sale of 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and equipment to Poland for a total of $12 billion.

    96 Apache's is a lot isn't it ? I swear they are already gearing up for the 2026 war in Ukraine. 96 would make it the biggest non US operator of them. The next biggest is the UK with 67 of them.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:42 am

    Backman wrote:The US State Department approved the sale of 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and equipment to Poland for a total of $12 billion.

    96 Apache's is a lot isn't it ? I swear they are already gearing up for the 2026 war in Ukraine. 96 would make it the biggest non US operator of them. The next biggest is the UK with 67 of them.

    As with many of their 'orders' there must be a good chance that they will have run out of money before they take more than the first few. They are Western not Russian prices Laughing

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:11 am

    Zlatti71
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    🇺🇦 Kyiv has almost completely banned foreign journalists from traveling to the front line, writes the Swiss edition Temps. 🧐🤓Why?


    From the smoke colour this looks like a fuel dump.

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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Aug 22, 2023 11:20 am

    https://tass.com/defense/1663023

    Ukrainian Defense Ministry complains airborne brigade hit because of media reports pwnd

    MOSCOW, August 21. /TASS/. Media reports about relocations of Ukraine’s 82nd Airborne Brigade led to airstrikes at its units, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said Monday.

    "The price of headlines regarding where the 82nd brigade was relocated in the south is five airstrikes at the brigade within 24 hours," Malyar said on her Telegram channel.

    She pointed out that publication of information about relocation of Ukrainian forces, which was not openly published by the General Staff or the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, is a criminal offense that carries imprisonment of between five and eight years.

    On August 16, Forbes’ David Axe reported that the Ukrainian armed forces engaged its last major reserve unit - the 82nd Airborne Brigade, equipped with Marder and Stryker vehicles, as well as Challenger 2 tanks - near the settlement of Rabotino, Zaporozhye Region.

    One day earlier, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov announced that Russian forces repelled three attacks of the 82nd Brigade near Rabotino in 24 hours. According to Konashenkov, the enemy lost over 200 personnel, 5 tanks, 6 armored personnel carriers, 2 armored vehicles, 2 automobiles and 2 Msta-B howitzers.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Aug 22, 2023 11:46 am

    Pretty sure Russia has all its eyes in the sky, and in space, surveying around Robotino and other hotspots of fighting at the moment - w/o having to rely on the reports of some David Axe in whatever neocon publication

    Although having said that, I do remember how Ukrainian TV earlier on in the war published a report one of their 'secret' repair plants fixing up tanks and armored vehicles - and then the next morning or the morning after it was visited by a Kalibr

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Aug 22, 2023 12:54 pm

    i mean infantry actively scanning area. FB says at least one battalion . Well let's see how it develops. Surely killing all saouteurs would have nice effect on next volunteers from ukroreich side.

    Killing them will stop them mounting a second attack, but I rather doubt the Orcs mention to their volunteers about their chances of succeeding let alone their survival chances.

    They already mentioned soldiers not given small arms till they reach the front line area... which suggests they don't trust them very much already.

    There is supposed to be a new grain deal.

    Erdogan wants a new grain deal because like Syrian oil stolen by the US Turkey makes a good profit on it, but Putin has already been pretty clear about what the west needs to do to restart the grain deal and they are not even close.

    This conflict has generated bad blood that will take 2 or 3 generations to subside. As long as Ukraine exists Russia will always have an enemy looking over it's backyard fence waiting for an opportunity to strike

    The Orcs turned against the Russians decades ago, with very little obvious prompting, but then it was never unanimous and right now the anti Russian Ukrainians are getting to show their hatred for Russia by dying in large numbers. They are taking the odd Russian soldier with them which obviously is bad, but the idea that Russia talks to these loonies and sort out some sort of deal is infinitely worse for Russia... ironically it would make good sense for Kiev but lack of good sense is how we got here in the first place.

    All Poroshenko or Zelensky had to do was follow the Minsk agreements and all they would have lost was the Crimea. Now they are losing four more regions... probably more.

    Some of you may die, but it's a risk I am willing to take

    That is what the Americans and EU have been saying about both sides in this conflict.

    The orcs got a choice and are idiots, but Russians were not really given any choice at all.

    Zelensky is now demanding US Ballistic missiles, Yanks have said no and pointed out to Ukraine they don't make them enough quantities, i think the Yanks know if they did supply them then there will be big mushrooms throughout NATzO land

    The irony is that ballistic weapons are easier to detect and shoot down than low flying aircraft and drones.

    It is the reason cruise missiles fly very low instead of very high.

    Are we going to see a major frontline shift in the near future or is Russia still grinding down Ukrainian suicide attacks?

    Couldn't it be both?

    Russia appears to have the numbers to attack in several places at once which is going to become more and more of a problem for Kiev as their numbers are being spread rather thinly and shifting forces around burns up fuel and exposes the moving forces to drone attacks and helicopter attacks.

    Pretty sure Russia has all its eyes in the sky, and in space, surveying around Robotino and other hotspots of fighting at the moment - w/o having to rely on the reports of some David Axe in whatever neocon publication

    Probably makes western reporters feel a bit more relevant to think they are having an effect and that the Russians look to them for information on the conflict, but equally would be nice to hear David Axe getting the Assange treatment...

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:49 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Backman wrote:The US State Department approved the sale of 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and equipment to Poland for a total of $12 billion.

    96 Apache's is a lot isn't it ? I swear they are already gearing up for the 2026 war in Ukraine. 96 would make it the biggest non US operator of them. The next biggest is the UK with 67 of them.

    As with many of their 'orders' there must be a good chance that they will have run out of money before they take more than the first few. They are Western not Russian prices Laughing

    This order alone Shocked

    US will arm Poland to the teeth for $12 billion

    Warsaw ordered:

    -96AH-64E Apache
    -37 Longbow fire control radars
    -1.844 AGM-114R2 Hellfire missiles
    -460AGM-179AJAGM
    -508 Stinger 92K Block I
    -7.650 APKWS-II sets
    As well as a lot of ammunition and detailed spare parts

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    Post  GarryB Tue Aug 22, 2023 3:20 pm

    It is always entertaining to see western countries wasting money on things they don't need and can't use... if HATO didn't want to take Apaches to the conflict in Kosovo how long would they last against Russia or Belarus... or even Wagner...

    I am sure everything is great in Poland and 12 billion US dollars could not be better spent on other things...

    The thing is that Kiev is mortgaged to the eyeballs, so when they lose their supporters are going to lose big too, and I can't see Russia saying to Monsanto that they own large tracts of Ukrainian farmland and they should be compensated for it... the west seizing Russian assets and funds and using them to fund Kiev means Russia can pretty much do as it pleases with western assets in Russia and now in Ukraine.

    Soldiers families could get land and resources to help them with their sacrifice...

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    Post  mnztr Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:11 pm

    Backman wrote:The US State Department approved the sale of 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and equipment to Poland for a total of $12 billion.

    96 Apache's is a lot isn't it ? I swear they are already gearing up for the 2026 war in Ukraine. 96 would make it the biggest non US operator of them. The next biggest is the UK with 67 of them.

    Poles are seeing the KA-52 savage the AFU armor but the clowns don't take into account that is only working well as the AFU have no significant air defense. Against Russia those would be lucky to even make it into the air.

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    Post  mnztr Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:12 pm

    GarryB wrote:It is always entertaining to see western countries wasting money on things they don't need and can't use... if HATO didn't want to take Apaches to the conflict in Kosovo how long would they last against Russia or Belarus... or even Wagner...

    I am sure everything is great in Poland and 12 billion US dollars could not be better spent on other things...

    The thing is that Kiev is mortgaged to the eyeballs, so when they lose their supporters are going to lose big too, and I can't see Russia saying to Monsanto that they own large tracts of Ukrainian farmland and they should be compensated for it... the west seizing Russian assets and funds and using them to fund Kiev means Russia can pretty much do as it pleases with western assets in Russia and now in Ukraine.

    Soldiers families could get land and resources to help them with their sacrifice...

    Value of farmland $25B, cost of clearing mines and cluster bombs 28B. Please pay 3B.

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    Post  Backman Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:28 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    Backman wrote:The

    This order alone Shocked

    US will arm Poland to the teeth for $12 billion

    Warsaw ordered:

    -96AH-64E Apache
    -37 Longbow fire control radars
    -1.844 AGM-114R2 Hellfire missiles
    -460AGM-179AJAGM
    -508 Stinger 92K Block I
    -7.650 APKWS-II sets
    As well as a lot of ammunition and detailed spare parts

    Yeah. It is an insanely large order. I think its pretty obvious what the long term plan is for Ukraine.

    I am sure everything is great in Poland and 12 billion US dollars could not be better spent on other things...

    That part is insane too. Even if everything was great in Poland, the population/gdp isn't big enough for orders like this. The US is probably going to finance it

    Poles are seeing the KA-52 savage the AFU armor. Against Russia those would be lucky to even make it into the air.

    It is probably intended to neutralize the KA-52 and if they have them in numbers, it would probably work to an extent. So Russia really needs to get what it wants done now or before 2025+ when this Polish army is ready.


    Last edited by Backman on Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  ucmvulcan Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:32 pm

    Backman wrote:

    Yeah. It is an insanely large order. I think its pretty obvious what the long term plan is for Ukraine.

    tThey know they can't keep Ukraine and Poland is terrified of being invaded and so they want to stop Russian ressurgance at a new Union Polish border?

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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:37 pm

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    Post  mnztr Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:50 pm

    Backman wrote:

    It is probably intended to neutralize the KA-52 and if they have them in numbers, it would probably work to an extent. So Russia really needs to get what it wants done now or before 2025+ when this Polish army is ready.

    you don't send helos to kill helos, you send jets. And when a jet fighter shows up a helo really have no defense. Its just a sitting duck. Generally they die without even knowing they are under attack.

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    Post  Isos Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:54 pm

    mnztr wrote:
    Backman wrote:

    It is probably intended to neutralize the KA-52 and if they have them in numbers, it would probably work to an extent. So Russia really needs to get what it wants done now or before 2025+ when this Polish army is ready.

    you don't send helos to kill helos, you send jets. And when a jet fighter shows up a helo really have no defense. Its just a sitting duck. Generally they die without even knowing they are under attack.

    Actually finding a helicopter flying very low isn't easy. Israeli were defenceless against Syrian gazelles back in the day.

    AD is the best option here and you better have something like tor or pantsir with both radars and opticals. Even then it's not easy if the chopper has a long range missile.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Tue Aug 22, 2023 5:27 pm

    Did the Israeli Mirages (Nesher) and Phantoms have look-down/shoot-down capability? That was a new thing in the 1970s (I assume you are referring to Yom Kippur?), and AFAIK the Kfir was the first Israeli fighter with such a radar, and it entered service post-war.

    Without that, low flying aircraft pretty much disappear in ground clutter.

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