Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

kvs wrote:WTF with all the Ukr ants scurrying about.   Were they pulling the train or something...

Do you mean some of our honorable members?

ALAMO wrote:

kvs wrote:WTF with all the Ukr ants scurrying about.   Were they pulling the train or something...

Do you mean some of our honorable members?

I meant in the video posted by Arrow. Strange cluster of people around a train that does not look like it is unloading.

D

ALAMO wrote:
Just for the records, it is supposed strike of FAB250.
Every single vehicle is at least 4m long.
This makes a +50m radius of vehicles that are obviously dead - burning, in some cases.
Quite a nice visualization of CEP, for our Counter Strike experts.

Looks like 500 to me by comparing Syrian footage. Even the power lines got tangled. Right onto locomotive.

That’s a 3rd recording of hits on rail logistics in 2 months if I am correct. Now when new drones come online, we will see railways being patrolled by suicide drones themselves.

Regular wrote:D

ALAMO wrote:
Just for the records, it is supposed strike of FAB250.
Every single vehicle is at least 4m long.
This makes a +50m radius of vehicles that are obviously dead - burning, in some cases.
Quite a nice visualization of CEP, for our Counter Strike experts.

Looks like 500 to me by comparing Syrian footage. Even the power lines got tangled. Right onto locomotive.

That’s a 3rd recording of hits on rail logistics in 2 months if I am correct. Now when new drones come online, we will see railways being patrolled by suicide drones themselves.

The strike is a bit puzzling. It looks as if the train is at a standstill on a siding with a ramp at the end for loading/unloading flatbeds. It looks like it struck either the ramp or the first flatbed. This would prevent either loading or unloading this train. Now they can disconnect the last few flatbeds and drive the loaded train away. Main damage the loading ramp.

I can't see a locomotive at either end of the train, is there one in the middle at the second pillar of smoke? I'd agree with 500kg.

Why all the small puff of dust on the other rail lines?

Striking railway transportation is important.


http://michalw.narod.ru/index-ZiemiKieleckiej.html

http://michalw.narod.ru/index-GL.html

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
·
21m
Information is coming in that the Dolgintsevo airfield is over!

Everything at the airfield is on fire and detonates very powerfully.
We ended up in a missile warehouse with ammunition for aircraft.

#source

@Slavyangrad


Residents of several cities of Transnistria, including Tiraspol, heard two powerful explosions 45 minutes ago.

Several subscribers from there wrote to us about this.

Apparently, near the border with Transnistria, some large Ukrainian Armed Forces facility was destroyed.

#source

@Slavyangrad

Revenge for Sevastopol?
Former Hotel in Odessa Port Area Unveiled as Ukrainian Navy Headquarters

Recent revelations have clarified the identity of the high-rise building in the Odessa port area, initially mistaken for a hotel. Contrary to previous assumptions, this building was actually used as the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy.

Does not matter, we will still have all sorts of internet experts claim that Russia can't do PR. But cunning Kiev/NATzO can score on
Russia by hitting empty buildings.

What's left of Odessa hotel ...




It was supposedly used as Banderamarine headquarter.

Edit : holly molly, there is not a single window left in the whole building.





Worked better than Storm Shadows, I would say

Probability of independent events and mutually exclusive is added up , and is more ? Need mathematician and microprocessor expert to give answer !

When you don't know what the targets are and you have a fixed number if air defence systems to put around the place then it gets very complex.

Equally as I mentioned probability is not well understood.

An example. Lets say you get an ordinary 6 sided dice and so the probability of getting a 3 is one in six.

You throw the dice five times and by coincidence you get 1, 5, 4, 2, and 6.

What is the probability of throwing a 3?

The answer is one in six. Probability does not change... unless the situation is changed. If you get a dungeons and dragons dice with 6 sides but with two 1s and two 2s and two 3s and no 4s,5s or 6s, then the probability changes to 1 in three because the probability is now 2 in 6.

The point is that every time you launch a SAM at a target and that target is within range the probability of a shootdown is the same, so the more often you launch a missile the better your chances... assuming you can hit the target in the first place.

If the target never gets within range of the SAM then the chances of intercept become very very low to zero.

And of course different missiles and different systems will effect your chances of a kill too.

A huge influence is communication... if the attack is detected early then your SAM systems can be put on alert and be ready to launch. A cruise missiles flight path will generally be planned to skirt the edges of know SAM and radar positions to make interception difficult and they don't just launch them willy nilly... they plan the cruise missile launches and the ballistic missile launches and the decoy missile launches to all happen at once so the real cruise missiles can slip through specific areas in the defence.

Even just a relatively small area like Sevastopol is hundreds of square kilometres and there wont be overlapping circles of SAM sites there operating like they would be over an army force on the battlefield.

The Russians are putting more AWACS aircraft into service and they will likely bring some more air defence systems into the area too and probably hide them so HATO does not know they are there... in such situations new systems like Verba and SOSNA will be useful because they don't need radar to give away their location but a bit of cueing to have the operators looking for the targets in the directions they will be arriving from makes interception much easier and more successful.

Well, those are bunker busters - sort of.
All were designed with a solid monobloc penetrator that followed a hollow charge that is designed to make a breach.
Penetrators had a HE charge attached.

Well not so much a bunker buster and more a tent buster... in real terms it is designed to pass through the outer wall of a heavily built building and explode inside.

Such an arrangement at subsonic speeds would be insufficient for even the weakest bunker more than a few metres underground.

Well, it is a solution used by Muricans back in 1991.
They have made a dedicated bunker busters using decommissioned 203mm naval guns barrels, remember?
It was a free fall bomb, so the speed was not great either, yet it worked.
Officially

As Taurus can carry several different warheads, the penetrative rod is not mandatory.

There is one more issue with it, being the range. It was constructed with two types - heavy weight with 350 km range, and light, 150 km version for light aircraft like JAS39 or F-16. As the missile was in a cycle of improvements, some pieces might have the range increased to 500 km, but that's it.
Considering that, I assume that no longer range pieces will be provided - there are not many of them. Which means that the carriers will be in the range of Rusian air defense. To keep them safe, the depth of strikes will be seriously limited. But we will see.

Edit : one interesting news appeared.
Blown up hotel in Odessa was called "abdoned" in shitstream narrative.

Well, for something that was abdoned, not only its condition was decent, but a lots of windows has been opened for ventilation

https://t.me/voin_dv/5124

Excellent vid by Prof Jeffrey Sachs regarding how the Ukraine fiaco came to be.  Well worth a watch, and a good link to post to anyone who wants a well-laid out explanation of the politics involved.



I never had any time for Sachs in the past given that he was one of the economists that was involved the "stabilisation" of the economy and finances of post-breakup Russia, but lately I've changed my attitudes greatly.  Sachs openly admits that US policy in the 90s was to not provide any assistance whatsoever to Russia in order to prolong the suffering and in the hope of further collapse, and that his sources show that the decision to extend NATO was made back as early as 1992. I think he is a genuinely good man whose faith in his own nation and its "values" has been deeply rattled by the realisation of just what kinds of evil reptiles are running the US hegemon, and how little they care for principles of basic humanity.

OK, I can tell you guys are suffering withdrawal symptoms on the big fire front. So here is today's. Watch for the interesting spread to the surrounding area.

This makes a +50m radius of vehicles that are obviously dead - burning, in some cases.

Next time use a FAB-1500. 

Were they pulling the train or something...

Worked better than Storm Shadows, I would say

New russian weapon advertising. 

What's left of Odessa hotel ...

Who owned it? BlackRock? 

Well, for something that was abdoned, not only its condition was decent, but a lots of windows has been opened for ventilation 

Western MSM will claim the hotel was used as orphanage. For puppies.

With a baby milk formula warehouse in the basement

Big_Gazza wrote:Excellent vid by Prof Jeffrey Sachs regarding how the Ukraine fiaco came to be.  Well worth a watch, and a good link to post to anyone who wants a well-laid out explanation of the politics involved.



I never had any time for Sachs in the past given that he was one of the economists that was involved the "stabilisation" of the economy and finances of post-breakup Russia, but lately I've changed my attitudes greatly.  Sachs openly admits that US policy in the 90s was to not provide any assistance whatsoever to Russia in order to prolong the suffering and in the hope of further collapse, and that his sources show that the decision to extend NATO was made back as early as 1992. I think he is a genuinely good man whose faith in his own nation and its "values" has been deeply rattled by the realisation of just what kinds of evil reptiles are running the US hegemon, and how little they care for principles of basic humanity.

Jeffrey Sachs is not a mastermind anything, don't know why people always assumed that just because he was involved in the economic advisory team to Russia. He was (and is still) a very able yet naive academic who knows many facts, is capable of connecting all the dots, but still has this fantasy notion about how the world should work or will work or must work and listening to him he's still motivated by the same thing today as then. Which is why he was used back then in the first place. I mean I can respect idealism, but you have to recognize a bunch of things too.

Hole wrote:Western MSM will claim the hotel was used as orphanage. For puppies.

Disabled transgender puppies..

ALAMO wrote:What's left of Odessa hotel ...
[] Worked better than Storm Shadows, I would say

impressive after shooting all Gerans and Calibers

kvs wrote:I meant in the video posted by Arrow.   Strange cluster of people around a train that does not look like it is unloading.

AFAIK, the train wasn't moving due to a planned or unplanned halt. Soldiers could just walk around while waiting for the journey to resume.

According to our data, in total 12046 foreigners officially took part in Ukraine (there is not even talk about any 20-thousandth army). Of these, about 1800 mercenaries are currently left in the SMO zone on the other side. Why so? High losses and a significant number of disappointed.

During the SMO more than 5680 troops from the International Legion were liquidated. And more than 4560 foreigners left the ranks of the AFU and returned to their countries.

https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1706202766757011868

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
impressive after shooting all Gerans and Calibers

We must respect the consistency - no Kinzhals, or Oniks ...
Yet!

franco wrote:According to our data, in total 12046 foreigners officially took part in Ukraine (there is not even talk about any 20-thousandth army). Of these, about 1800 mercenaries are currently left in the SMO zone on the other side. Why so? High losses and a significant number of disappointed.

During the SMO more than 5680 troops from the International Legion were liquidated. And more than 4560 foreigners left the ranks of the AFU and returned to their countries.

https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1706202766757011868

There was some turmoil among the Polish mercs about not paying compensation for KIA/WIA.
Money talks ...

supposedly google pictures taken at the Odessa hotel.
I tried looking them up, they are not there anymore.

Kiev media, "the hotel was empty"
sure .....

GarryB wrote:

Probability of independent events and mutually exclusive is added up , and is more ? Need mathematician and microprocessor expert to give answer !

The point is that every time you launch a SAM at a target and that target is within range the probability of a shootdown is the same, so the more often you launch a missile the better your chances... assuming you can hit the target in the first place.

With pK 0.83 it takes 5 tries to come to 99.99% chance of success.
The third try is already at 99.5%

With pK 0.77 it takes 7 to 99.99% but fourth is already at 99.7%

pKs are advertised for simple interception solutions, ideal scenarios. The computers have a limit for tracking targets and calculating solutions. They also need to have up to date kinetic profiles for interception goals. There is a ton of other system and engagement variables that we don't know, that all affect pK negatively.

If pK drops to 0.5 in real world scenario, you're looking at 14 missiles for a certain (99.99) kill.

Better question than what really is pK is what is the remainder of it. The remainder comes out partially from lack of systematic capability where we talk about a huge physical problem, partially it comes from your flight data being slightly variable, the biggest part comes from probabilistic data in flights profile of targets; simply put, you can't know how your system works for 100%, you can't know how the enemy system works for 100%, but you don't even have 100% data on it.

(assuming you can hit the target in the first place)

I have just read in the Western press that Admiral Viktor Sokolov was killed during the attack on the fleet headquarters in Sebastopol? Do you have any information?

My information is that it was a janitor/caretaker. Of course the western MSM feeding off Kiev regime inane propaganda as Gospel will claim it was
an admiral. Because Russian admirals operate from non-secure locations. This drivel is the same as the widespread expectation that Russian
troops would flee in the face of the mighty Ukr counter-offensive. Ex-general Patreus keeps bleating about this to the present time in every MSM
orifice he can find.