Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

lyle6 wrote:

Sujoy wrote:
Because if the Pk 0.70 - 0.83 holds true then all these 36 Storm Shadows should have been intercepted.

The Pk is for each target engagement. Assuming 0.83Pk, and a binomial distribution the probability that 36 out of 36 will be splashed is 0.1%.

Good point . However to improve probability of intercept , it may be better to redesign the processors to run independently , targeting smaller number of targets , even if processing power is less per chip ,  but more of them connected to separate Radar dish , arranged along a line . Probability of connected events , is different . Probability of independent events and mutually exclusive is added up , and is more ? Need mathematician and microprocessor expert to give answer !

https://www.storyofmathematics.com/probability-of-multiple-events/

Once again, lots of social media and forum flutter about failed Russian missile interceptions.   As if any NATzO ABM system would have
performed better.   The expectation of total detection of all targets and total interception is loony tunes delusional.   This math-physics problem
does not have exact solutions.   Such attacks have not been ongoing for 50 years leading to system refinement to the Nth degree.   During
the SMO Russian forces have had to adjust and adapt (e.g. HIMARS, drones).   People would have a reason to bitch and whine if Russia
was not learning any lessons and doing nothing to improve its systems and tactics.  

Also, this is yet another Ukr/NATzO PR stunt that has zero military value.   If this is enough to distract the masses from the total fail of
the hyped to the stars counter-offensive, then these masses deserve all the reaming they get from their rotten owners.   Vote Biden,
Scholz, Micron, whatever.   The status quo is doing wonderfully...

lyle6 wrote:The Pk is for each target engagement. Assuming 0.83Pk, and a binomial distribution the probability that 36 out of 36 will be splashed is 0.1%.

Interesting! Can you share your calculation?

nomadski wrote:Good point . However to improve probability of intercept , it may be better to redesign the processors to run independently , targeting smaller number of targets , even if processing power is less per chip ,  but more of them connected to separate Radar dish , arranged along a line . Probability of connected events , is different . Probability of independent events and mutually exclusive is added up , and is more ? Need mathematician and microprocessor expert to give answer !

https://www.storyofmathematics.com/probability-of-multiple-events/

Thanks for the share.

To redesign the processors to run independently you'll have to do that for several types of missiles that the adversary has

Marders?

Bradley and some other stuff

You are still here.

Hole wrote:
You are still here.

Silly Russians, obviously its all going according to plan. By holding the Ukes before they even breach the first defensive belt, they lose the war and won't be able to hold their lines. The Ukes are going to br in Crimea on tomorrow and Moscow on Wednesday. Pay no attention to Zaluzhnny being investigated for treason and the defense minister being sacked along with six deputy defense ministers, they were found to be corrupt and it has absolutely nothing to do with the war. Ukraine is winning, Mark Milley, Tony Blinken and CNN and Biden's dementia say so

flamming_python wrote:Macgregor delivers

Youtube censorship again...
Could anyone please share an alternative link?

Edit: I think someone reuploaded it here. Not sure, if it is the complete video.

kvs wrote:Once again, lots of social media and forum flutter about failed Russian missile interceptions.   As if any NATzO ABM system would have
performed better.   The expectation of total detection of all targets and total interception is loony tunes delusional.   This math-physics problem
does not have exact solutions.   Such attacks have not been ongoing for 50 years leading to system refinement to the Nth degree.   During
the SMO Russian forces have had to adjust and adapt (e.g. HIMARS, drones).   People would have a reason to bitch and whine if Russia
was not learning any lessons and doing nothing to improve its systems and tactics.  

Also, this is yet another Ukr/NATzO PR stunt that has zero military value.   If this is enough to distract the masses from the total fail of
the hyped to the stars counter-offensive, then these masses deserve all the reaming they get from their rotten owners.   Vote Biden,
Scholz, Micron, whatever.   The status quo is doing wonderfully...

Differently from making holes in bridges, this strike on HQ did have military value, it would be disingenuous to say it didn’t. Doesn’t mean it changes the grand picture, but it was something we didn’t see from them in a long time. I wonder if they will use ATACMS in the same way, but they need unitary warheads to use them properly

Striking an empty building does not have any military value. Russian army procedure is to move command and control to decentralized bunkers.
This missile attack did not even demolish the building. If NATzO suspected a bunker under this building they could have sent Ukraine some
bunker busters. But they have not even done that.

kvs wrote:Striking an empty building does not have any military value.   Russian army procedure is to move command and control to decentralized bunkers.
This missile attack did not even demolish the building.   If NATzO suspected a bunker under this building they could have sent Ukraine some
bunker busters.   But they have not even done that.

It was a strike on military HQ building during war time, it has same value as attack on GUR building in Kiev when Budanov was killed 7th time. Even if it didn’t “collapse” the building it’s not usable, bunker beneath it as well, if it wasn’t affected, it will be need to vacated. 

Storm shadow is bunker buster. So is Taurus.

Regular wrote:

kvs wrote:Striking an empty building does not have any military value.   Russian army procedure is to move command and control to decentralized bunkers.
This missile attack did not even demolish the building.   If NATzO suspected a bunker under this building they could have sent Ukraine some
bunker busters.   But they have not even done that.

It was a strike on military HQ building during war time, it has same value as attack on GUR building in Kiev when Budanov was killed 7th time. Even if it didn’t “collapse” the building it’s not usable, bunker beneath it as well, if it wasn’t affected, it will be need to vacated. 

Storm shadow is bunker buster. So is Taurus.

Your definition of bunker buster deviates from any known. Bunker busters are specialized and not any random ballistic missile or cruise missile. SS and T are not hypersonic. At least
that would give them bunker busting ability because of the kinetic energy.

You are dancing to the Kiev/NATzO propaganda tune. Enjoy your dance.

It seems like Kursk airport in Halino was hit and that there are dead among flight crews. Telegram channels connected to aviation are scarce with info, but they confirm that there was an attack with dead.

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/14105

Something needs to be written about Halino.
It's difficult to write anything here.
My condolences brothers...
Will live!

https://t.me/Aviahub34/1398

The answer for Kursk did not take long to arrive.
While you are reading these lines, tens of tons of FABs are flying/arriving in 404, because: “for every one of ours, we will take dozens of yours”
Guys, please accept our condolences, we will live!

Ukraininan railway transport was hit:
https://t.me/infomil_live/196?single
The Ukrainian military’s railway train was hit during its stop near the village of Rodinskoye, Pokrovsky district. The nearest positions of the Russian Armed Forces are about 50 kilometers away.

Coordinates: 48.3674110, 37.1988755

It is not specified how the blow was struck, but during two explosions one can notice the impact of the damaging elements on the surrounding area. Most likely, the airstrike was carried out by the UMPC, this corresponds to both its power and the route of the Ukrainian echelon, located only 42 kilometers from Donetsk, over which the combat routes of Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft lie in the sky.



And video:
https://t.me/infomil_live/194

Rozhin on Halino:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98452
After attempts to attack the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region, we had deaths there.  One of the fallen drones turned out to have a “surprise”.
Previously, the enemy had already used such tactics in the Kherson direction, where several drones shot down and landed with the help of electronic warfare were blown up after detection.
They were also exposed to various chemicals that affected the respiratory tract.  Therefore, downed enemy drones must be handled with care and this practice must be taken into account.
Peace to the ashes of the dead.

Wagner memorial:
https://t.me/grey_zone/20733?single

•REMEMBER EVERYONE•

On the territory of the Wagner Group chapel, which was built by Yevgeny Prigozhin near the village of Goryachiy Klyuch, a memorial stele was erected dedicated to the memory of all the fallen soldiers of the Wagner Group.

More than 25,000 personal tokens of “musicians” who gave their lives in battles for their homeland are engraved on the memorial.

No survivors
The whole army sleeps in eternal sleep...
No survivors
So, the dead - rise up!

Are this Americans real volunteers or Ukro style "volunteers" = american soldiers forced to fight there.

WTF with all the Ukr ants scurrying about. Were they pulling the train or something...

ALAMO wrote:

kvs wrote:

Your definition of bunker buster deviates from any known.   Bunker busters are specialized and not any random ballistic missile or cruise missile.  SS and T are not hypersonic.   At least
that would give them bunker busting ability because of the kinetic energy.  
You are dancing to the Kiev/NATzO propaganda tune.   Enjoy your dance.

Well, those are bunker busters - sort of.
All were designed with a solid monobloc penetrator that followed a hollow charge that is designed to make a breach.
Penetrators had a HE charge attached.
Considering that 70+% are just taken down, and the number of potential targets - the thing is jus another bogus.
Wanker team can go hard, so use more lubricant.

Indeed. But the problem with "solutions" that solve numerous problems at once is that they are poor for every problem.
Monoblock penetrator looks like marketing term. May as well call it a warhead.