Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

JohninMK wrote:All gone in a few days

Arthur Morgan
@ArthurM40330824
·
1h
Sweden confirmed the loss of ALL by Leopard 2A5 tanks of the #Swedish modification Strv 122, which were delivered to #Ukraine.
Their losses amounted to 10 out of 10 such tanks delivered .
]

I wonder (seriously) did any of them even get the opportunity to fire a single shot in anger or were they all simply destroyed by mines, 52s or artillery???

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:The mini-turbines used in regular cruise missiles are quite cheap, and Russia produces these in bulk. Their MTBOs are in the hour and half ballpark, but they aren't meant to ever be overhauled anyway, so yeah.

Then neither Calibr nor X-101 can be in this class

kaliber and X101 would need to operate reliably for about 12 hours. But its possible you can even introduce an automated throttling program to allow the turbine to cool so it varies its power output over the mission allowing the use of cheaper materials, only in terminal attack does it go into full power to the end.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:As I said before, many months ago, the M1 is designed for American needs, with American-level logistical support in mind.

It's a fine tank with a great track record in U.S. service, but yeah - that's U.S. service. Elsewhere it hasn't performed particularly well at all, same goes for Leos and what have you.

The Lazerpigish assessments of vehicles are beneath us, I hope.

Lets not mince words:
If a tank or any other equipment needs the overwhelming material and organizational advantages of a military superpower to make it compete on the same level as other vehicles of the class its intrinsically garbage.

Except even then the Aybraps will still get clobbered because its a garbage design with 1in roof armor and the thermal signature of a stripper on the pole - everyone will be looking to pop the top off that hot piece of ass before the night is done.

And I'll shit on this piece of trash however I goddamn like. The NATOids were shitting on Soviet designs for operating outside of their design constraints - why should the Aybraps be treated different?

JohninMK wrote:All gone in a few days

Arthur Morgan
@ArthurM40330824
·
1h
Sweden confirmed the loss of ALL by Leopard 2A5 tanks of the #Swedish modification Strv 122, which were delivered to #Ukraine.
Their losses amounted to 10 out of 10 such tanks delivered .

The Strv 122 is easily the best protected NATO MBT. The Russian MoD spent billions of Rubles fielding the most modern guns that can fit the T-72/80/90 and close to 20 years developing the 3BM59/60 subcaliber shells just to pierce its tough hide. And some Russian reservists looking for some beer money, using copious amounts TM-62 and FPV drones the internet donated just wiped them out like it was nothing.

lyle6 wrote:

Except even then the Aybraps will still get clobbered because its a garbage design with 1in roof armor and the thermal signature of a stripper on the pole - everyone will be looking to pop the top off that hot piece of ass before the night is done.

M1 was made as a bargain tank compared to L2.
It's top hull plate is 2' thick, making some 380mm LOS. And it only accounts for a 0 grade head on engagement, because any difference in angle of impact makes the LOS even smaller.
It uses an old gun, that is ages behind modern standards.
To pimp it up, is forced to use a DU ammunition, because it is the only way to get close to the parameters of long bored guns, both 120/55 and new Russkie ones.
That's not the only case. They are using DU, because they either can't afford, or can't manage the production of tungsten made penetrators.
So are using the ones made of garbage, compromising the safety of their own personnel for money.

There is an interesting news revealed today, concerning Verbove part of the front. The saturation of drones is so huge, that it is getting complicated to define who scored a kill of an armored piece, even considering round the clock drone surveillance. There are so many of them, that every target that will only appear, is being hit multiple times.
Good luck to M1

Remember the attack on ammo depot north of Cherson?
I have located it.
Here it is.
46.766206460105884, 32.41472416441911

Russkie cited 12 warehouses destroyed. Well, there is even bigger number of it in the area, and if anyone has doubts about that, well ... here is how it looks like now :



12 sounds legit now  

Edit :

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98691

Gore warning, but informative either.
A trench full of decomposing Ukrs, obviously not evacuated for days. Or there was no one to extract the dead ones left.
The second is even more interesting.
10 POW (the group that runs in the background is probably POW, too), some of them inspected.
Take a look at both gear and age.
Those are guys around their 50s.

Good find.

That ruined site really demonstrates why it was so sensible to store ammo in the way they did. But in a war you don't have time and use the nearest suitable building, hoping no-one spots it. OK before recon drones but now.............................fireworks and bangs.

Now the video

They are just packing it in some areas close to the railroad.

Edit : the number of FPV recorded strikes in total run over 1000, with almost HALF of them in September ...

Backman wrote:Backman wrote " The hotel/HQ in Odessa isn't an adequate response. Kiev should be shaken with high profile attacks. Everyone that matters is sheltered from the war. Why would anyone that matters want to end this war when it gives them such a sense of pride and purpose with these attacks ? "

Nomadski wrote:I think a distinction needs to be made between combatants and non-combatants . Those engaged in offensive operations against Russia or Russian speaking populations , the extremists and Nazi supporters , deserve the most severe response .

The Hotel at Odessa was used for the grain deal and as such was filled with Orc military and mercs and soldiers as the one safe place the Russians would not attack while the deal was working or could be revived.

It was an excellent target to hit and I would say grain stores and sheds on farms all over the Ukraine probably store weapons and ammo and armoured vehicles and should also be targeted for destruction too... who cares if it means they can't sell their crops... they are at war and should be thinking about that first and foremost anyway.

Russia still is using cruise missiles at long range to hit targets . And these are now mostly non- AD targets . Am I right in thinking that the SEAD phase against Ukraine did not proceed as well as those against Iraq ? And if not , why not ?

Because the Soviet equipment that Ukraine is working with was designed to both work together as an integrated network to defend large areas of territory, but also to work on its own without needing radar to detect targets and being able to operate in radar silent modes that are probably not as effective as with radar working but also rather difficult for an air power to deal with because of that.

Iraq didn't have any really modern air defence missiles either, they had mostly old MANPADs and SA-6 and SA-8 and SA-9 and Shilka etc etc, they didn't have any SA-11 or SA-17 or SA-15, let alone any SA-10 or SA-12 or SA-19 on Tunguska vehicles.

Also important to know these are watered down export versions and old one at that so even if the ruskie's capture it, they will get virtually no info out of the things.

They will get some nice museum pieces to show.

It's not just having the tank, you need to have the base support for it in place or be able to provide that on the move none of which Ukraine has.

Think of the pressure each of these 31 tanks is going to put on their fuel supply system.... that alone is worth seeing.

Then when they are armoured bunkers unable to move then pick them off with Kornets from distances where they wont even know you are there and when the last few crews ditch and run their vehicles can be captured intact.

Then neither Calibr nor X-101 can be in this class

Actually they are, they use a class of jet engine designed for use in weapons and therefore designed for one use only. Russia was put at a disadvantage initially because the small jet engines used for the Kh-55 land attack cruise missiles as well as the engines used in their AS-18 attack missiles were made in the Ukraine, but they spent the money and developed their own small engines designed for limited life spans and good thrust with good fuel consumption rates.

With a current attrition rate of 700 KIA per day, we're talking about 750,000 dead Ukrainians by the middle of 2025. Nobody would realistically be left to fight by then, unless they start drafting women and children like WW2 Germany.

Even if they have a human pool to dip into the money from the west wont continue that long.

kaliber and X101 would need to operate reliably for about 12 hours. But its possible you can even introduce an automated throttling program to allow the turbine to cool so it varies its power output over the mission allowing the use of cheaper materials, only in terminal attack does it go into full power to the end.

Getting it to operate for 6 or 7 hours without problems is no big deal, these things fly 5,000km, which at 700km/h would be a little over 7 hours at best, but most of the time they fly at 800-850km/h which means just under 6 hours operation. A properly designed engine using cheaper materials could easily do this no problem at all. With a proper working cooling system you could probably get a few days of work from these engines before you started to have problems, but they wont be made from the exotic metals that keep aircraft engines working thousands of hours at much higher temperatures.

That ruined site really demonstrates why it was so sensible to store ammo in the way they did. But in a war you don't have time and use the nearest suitable building, hoping no-one spots it.

The core problem is that it comes in either by truck or by rail or by aircraft or by ship and where ever it arrives you need to make stacks of the stuff and then organise it to move forward to locations closer to your troops and then those storage areas have to be split up and spread out and also allow the supply of ammo and weapons to the troops on the front line.

You split it up and spread it out as much as you possibly can but the more ammo and fuel dumps you have the easier they are to find because you need to use them to supply ammo to the forces at the front and more fuel and ammo needs to arrive which means trucks and trains and vehicles coming and going all day and night... and with an enemy controlling the sky just watching they will work it out and hit you.

Send one to Kubinka and drone the other 3

Another fan of ukrainian mathematics. 

It needs US logistics, air superiority, artillery support, and close air support.

The main thing that the M1 needs is an enemy equipped with shovels at best. In that case it can "dominate". 

With a current attrition rate of 700 KIA per day, we're talking about 750,000 dead Ukrainians by the middle of 2025. 

They are already closing in on the 500.000 mark. And the soldiers aren´t getting any better. If this operation runs until 2025 we talk about 1+ Million killed.

Russia still is using cruise missiles at long range to hit targets 

Russia is using cruise missiles because they´re cheaper than the operational cost of a plane flying around for a few hours just to drop one or two glide bombs.

Also important to know these are watered down export versions and old one

In other words the US Army has a few hundred modern tanks and no reserve pool for a real war.

And these are now mostly non- AD targets . Am I right in thinking that the SEAD phase against Ukraine did not proceed as well as those against Iraq ? 

Why do you think there are no AD systems anymore?
They were destroyed.
Russia is using a lot of lawnmowers to destroy targets but even those can´t be shot down by mighty NATO.

Hole wrote "They are already closing in on the 500.000 mark. And the soldiers aren´t getting any better. If this operation runs until 2025 we talk about 1+ Million killed."




The NATO are stationing F16 in Romania ! For now they will fly within Romanian Airspace . But soon they will sadistically "enter" Ukraine ! Creep forward ! Like a necrophiliac bestial  fiend  having intercourse wth the Ukrainian Nazi corpse ! Groaning " mission creep.............mission creep , " to no avail ! Nothing is going to bring back to life , the corpses of the Nazis , Orc or WW2 types ! They are flogging a dead Horse !

Infamous prank callers Vovan and Lexus did a little something on Michael "Sarah" Ashton-Cirillo, the (former?) spox for the Ukrainian armed forces:
https://rumble.com/v3l7ys7-prank-with-sarah-ashton-chirillo.html

And Sokolov appeared again:
https://m.tvzvezda.ru/news/2023927118-yFXNs.html

The core problem Nomadski, for air power and air based power like the US and the west in general, is that Russian and Soviet air defence systems were designed to evade air power and they fully understood how SEAD works and how to evade it, so modern western air power would actually be worse than Russian air power in defeating air defence because western SEAD is airpower based.

It would be like using Ballistics missiles to defeat a anti ballistic missile defence system, when low flying cruise missiles and drones take out PAC-3 Patriot just fine and are actually cheap.

Talking about manpower lasting to 2025 is amusing when the money is going to run out much earlier than that...

GarryB wrote:

Talking about manpower lasting to 2025 is amusing when the money is going to run out much earlier than that...

Problem with manpower is something that most of the commentators miss, for a few reasons.
The most important one is lack, disbelief, or calculated fraud concerning entry data.
Which is the number of Ukrainian citizens spread and its causes.
I was explaining that, but seems it is never enough.
Ukraine in 2019 was not 52, not 50, not 45, not 42 (all given in a different context and materials for years) but 37 (!!) mln population, only 17 mln being male.
This data already has a deviation - the survey was made electronically, and in 2019 there were millions of Ukrainians misplaced.
Both to Russia and the west!!
Those people could vote without any being in Ukraine, or traveling for work and returning occasionally.
What's more, let us consider who stayed.
Or who was abroad?
Obviously, those who stayed were elderly people, and who was left was a labor grade citizens - they left to work abroad.
So it is not like the number of those who left consists of a whole society structure. It is not.
The bulk of it, was young population.
And - as I have already explained to you either - the structure of it changed, too.
Till 2014, the majority of people who fled the Ukraine were females, who worked as a child care, kitchen assistants, housekeeping etc.
Where were the males? In fukin Russia!!!! Why? Because they had a zero adaptation issues, and could work in a very lucrative positions that were paid in Russia on pair with Middle Europe, while traveling further was increasing the costs, risks, time waste, and cultural shock.
From 2019 to 2022, the situation was not stagnant, the numbers were going down steadily.
And we are not in the war yet!
After 240222, more millions fled. And that was not only females.
But to get that, one must simply witness.
The number of young Ukrainian males who fled the country after the war started is mindblowing.
Inflow to the neighboring countries was so big, that it hit the labor market.
In the countries that absorbed most of them, there was an observable break in the prices of construction.
And guess what!?
Those prices never recovered after!
This means that the male population from Ukraine in the construction business remains stable. They never returned.
Now, if you are Murican, or Asian, or live in Spain/Sweden/UK/whatever, this situation is unimaginable to you.
How is that possible, that a country called democratic, free etc lost about 40% of its population?!?
Well, it is quite easy to explain - it was never free and democratic after 1991, and people were voting with their own feets for three decades.
Those who stayed, faced an intense mindwasching for a whole period...
So seriously, I would not even consider the male population in Ukraine being at 15 mln level even before the war has started, and going down to maybe 12-13mln after.
Being OLD already.
Adjust the Russian incorporated regions.
Adjust the KIA/WIA/MIA/POW.
What you will end up ith?

@ GarryB



I am confident that these point defence passive Radar advanced Ukrainian ex-Soviet SAM , can be found and destroyed , at least within the 50- 100 km distances of frontlines . They are either hidden in Rural buildings ( masking their heat signatures ) or hidden under Trees ( visible heat signatures ) . In the first case Russia can tell Ukrainian farmers to burn their Barns and store equipment and Animals outdoors ( cattle may have to be slaughtered in advance of winter , this should be allowed , so they keep funds from sale ) . If they refuse , then both their buildings and Tractors will be destroyed . In the second case , if Russia can not spot IR signature of SAM equipment from satellites , then use Drones with IR camera , transmitting in real time location and image . If drone spots heat under a Tree and is immediately destroyed , no problem ! Last location known and given to fast missile , before they can move and evade . Many different ways ! But priority should be to break the will to fight ! We can not drop Nuke , but almost as good is the spectre of carpet bombing ! One or two instances of carpet bombing , resulting in a few hundred deaths , will end the war and stop countless deaths . It is the certainty of death , that stops the fight .

Edit : To set example , pick a 100 km frontline by 100 km deep . Clear this area from SAM . Then carpet bomb the frontlines and film the bloody results and put it on TV . War is over !

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Infamous prank callers Vovan and Lexus did a little something on Michael "Sarah" Ashton-Cirillo, the (former?) spox for the Ukrainian armed forces:
https://rumble.com/v3l7ys7-prank-with-sarah-ashton-chirillo.html

There. 4:30 on.
He talks about his company losses in Artemovsk, being horrific - 14 people left.
Considering that even the weakest company is no less than 40-50 people, do your math.
And what is even more interesting, he considers that the company will be disbanded - which in detail presents the WWI standards.

Hole wrote:

Send one to Kubinka and drone the other 3

Another fan of ukrainian mathematics. 

It needs US logistics, air superiority, artillery support, and close air support.

The main thing that the M1 needs is an enemy equipped with shovels at best. In that case it can "dominate". 

With a current attrition rate of 700 KIA per day, we're talking about 750,000 dead Ukrainians by the middle of 2025. 

They are already closing in on the 500.000 mark. And the soldiers aren´t getting any better. If this operation runs until 2025 we talk about 1+ Million killed.

Russia still is using cruise missiles at long range to hit targets 

Russia is using cruise missiles because they´re cheaper than the operational cost of a plane flying around for a few hours just to drop one or two glide bombs.

Also important to know these are watered down export versions and old one

In other words the US Army has a few hundred modern tanks and no reserve pool for a real war.

And these are now mostly non- AD targets . Am I right in thinking that the SEAD phase against Ukraine did not proceed as well as those against Iraq ? 

Why do you think there are no AD systems anymore?
They were destroyed.
Russia is using a lot of lawnmowers to destroy targets but even those can´t be shot down by mighty NATO.

Yeah, ya got me. Pardon my math, I live in a nation whose media prides itself on misinformation. 3+1 is now 5 because Big Biden says it is. To say its 4 is thought crime here and well the example of Winston Smith makes me realize how serious they are on this. . . .

Hohol troon Sarah Ashton-Cirillo got pranked by Vovan and Lexus
https://files.catbox.moe/fjquvc.mp4

Hohol troon Sarah Ashton-Cirillo got pranked by Vovan and Lexus
Part 2
https://files.catbox.moe/7s81dn.mp4

but 37 (!!) mln population, only 17 mln being male.

Mercouris mentioned a E-Mail he received from some viewer that put the number at 34 or even 32 million.

Pardon my math

Happens to the best of us. 

I have just linked some dots here.
In the last week only, we had :
Closing the market for Ukro grain, against the EU regulation,
A series of harsh reactions towards Ukrainian notes,
President's metaphor of Ukraine being a drowning man, who can take everyone down with him,
Closing the arms supply - they do deliver some early agreed, but no new deliveries are planned,
Official statement that Poland wont allow any kind of aggressive narrative from Ukraine being on the leash of good will of the west, Poland included,
Polish MoEducation place a note to our Institute of National Remembrance to check, if the Canadian Ukronazi is not mentioned in Polish war crimes documentation, and if it is the case - to push forward extraditon procedure,
Officially admitted that the missile that killed two farmers in Nov22 was of Ukro origin, with additional information that the Ukrs deliberately lied about the matter to us.

Plus some viral things in the Internet, where people show how obviously sick and tired they are with the whole Ukro Affair.

Now imagine. One is harsh, two are unusual, three are bizzare, but all of them, altogether, in a week ...
It can't be only explained by the election campaign.
Some tide is rising.
My guess is, that it gets crystal clear to everyone that Ukraine is done, and awaits only Russkie to release the roller.
So they are doing their best to get ready for that, to pretend that nothing really happened...

Hole wrote "They are already closing in on the 500.000 mark. And the soldiers aren´t getting any better. If this operation runs until 2025 we talk about 1+ Million killed."

The war will not continue to 2025. Shoigu said that deliberately. He said it firstly to show Russia's confidence in winning this. And secondly to tell that scumbag Biden that this war can still be hot and heavy during the election cycle, with Russia able to make moves to piss all over the campaign and blow their bullshit narrative to bits. Ukraine has been reduced to using small squads as an concentration of forces gets obliterated. Unfortunately this makes the meat grinder less efficient, but thanks to the use of so many drones it still does the job. Good to see them taking out ammo and fuel. They need to starve out the AFU, the alternative is an offensive that will have a significant butchers bill.

Problem with manpower is something that most of the commentators miss, for a few reasons.
The most important one is lack, disbelief, or calculated fraud concerning entry data.
Which is the number of Ukrainian citizens spread and its causes.
I was explaining that, but seems it is never enough.

Except even with everything you mentioned Zelensky and Biden don't give a shit about 71 year old conscripts for the Ukrainian army... in fact they probably say that with pride pretending the 71 year old had a choice and is choosing to join the battle rather than being pushed with a gun barrel shoved up his jacksie and told it is either him or his wife that goes to the front line and his hips are better than hers.

When the money stops being delivered then the war stops very very very quickly and without question.

It is not about money stopping arriving in Kiev, but about money not changing hands in the US and UK and France and Germany and all the other EU countries who are getting rid of old rubbish for the promise of top dollar new stuff they are never going to get.

When the money stops from the EU and US it is over... and it sounds like Hungary is putting on the brakes in the EU and the Republicans are putting on the brakes in the US...

I am confident that these point defence passive Radar advanced Ukrainian ex-Soviet SAM , can be found and destroyed , at least within the 50- 100 km distances of frontlines .

Your confidence is misplaced... did HATO wipe out the Serbian armed forces in Kosovo in the two months they were raining death on them?

How many targets did they claim they wiped off the map and how many decoys did they actually hit?

When you don't run the engines in a vehicle then it has the same heat signature as the ground around it. If you put a tarp over it it no longer looks like an air defence vehicle... put a little straw on top of that and you can't tell what is under there.

The point is that they are playing a game called ambush... they are no longer defending their airspace... that game is lost... the new game they are playing is called ambush where you sit and wait for information from HATO to tell you that something really important is coming that would be worth shooting down and so you pull off the tarp or start your vehicle up and drive it out of the garage or shed it was sitting in all this time and turn on the optical system but not the radar or anything that will attract attention and you wait till you see the target... fire a couple of missiles and then drive away an into a different shed or building and reload those missiles, replace the fuel and then wait for the next call from HATO.

In the first case Russia can tell Ukrainian farmers to burn their Barns and store equipment and Animals outdoors ( cattle may have to be slaughtered in advance of winter , this should be allowed , so they keep funds from sale ) .

How naive are you? Sure I will burn my barn... tomorrow... but it is full of straw for feed for my animals... would you mind if I move the straw... it is winter feed and all covered in tarps... hahahaha...

In the second case , if Russia can not spot IR signature of SAM equipment from satellites , then use Drones with IR camera , transmitting in real time location and image .

The IR signature of a SAM vehicle is the same as the IR signature of any motor vehicle... a hot engine... trucks, buses, motorbikes, campfires, all have IR signatures and putting a blanket over top will change that IR signature. Putting car tires on their strategic bombers made Russian strategic bombers disappear from IR satellites...

A sheet metal building made of old roofing iron will hide anything from aircraft, drones and satellites.

Why do you think 20 years in a tiny country like Afghanistan wasn't enough to destroy the Taliban? Surely they found all their vehicles and all their hiding places by then... their satellites outnumber Russian ones 20 to one or more.

If drone spots heat under a Tree and is immediately destroyed , no problem !

And what if it has a V on it and is a friendly... Or what if it is some civilians caught in the wrong place at the wrong time?

You can't just blow up every hot spot in view because you honestly don't have that much ammo to throw away.

And destroying your own people is a bit counter productive too.

will end the war and stop countless deaths . It is the certainty of death , that stops the fight .

Except their propaganda is telling them they are winning.

Edit : To set example , pick a 100 km frontline by 100 km deep . Clear this area from SAM . Then carpet bomb the frontlines and film the bloody results and put it on TV . War is over !

There is no way you can be sure there are no SAMs in any given area if they don't come out and reveal themselves. A vehicle like an SA-13 is just an MTLB artillery tractor with some launch rails on top, and hidden in a garage or shed you will have no idea it is there.

And you can film anything you please... do you think the people of the Ukraine will get to see that?

If they do see it they will be told that this is what the Ukraine is doing to the Russian forces... if you don't hurry to the front lines there wont be any Russians left for you to kill...

3+1 is now 5 because Big Biden says it is. To say its 4 is thought crime here and well the example of Winston Smith makes me realize how serious they are on this. . . .

Modern math. Three plus one can equal 5 if the three are biological males who identify as women and one biological women and they all identify as pregnant women... so 3 plus one where one is pregnant and the other three just think they are pregnant equals 5.

Tarp and Straw and Barn and Tree burn very well ! You just need a match . Small incendiary . Can be delivered by drones easily . Yes you do have enough Ammo . If friendlies want to avoid the fire , then have no Tarp or Barn or Tree covering equipment . Animal feed stored outdoors , can be stored in small lumps , across a field . Otherwise any lump , covered ground , will burn . Farmers will be told to sell animals , no need for Barn or storage of feed . QED .

lancelot wrote:Polish supplies of weapons to Ukraine basically stopped because there is nothing left to give. At this point Poland probably sent all its T-72s and PT-91s into Ukraine. Plus many Krab artillery and other equipment. For example out of 80 Krab artillery they had initially, they sent 72 to Ukraine. Right now Poland is rearming itself. So it is highly unlikely they will send significant weapon supplies in the near future. Probably mostly financial aid.

Sending more equipment would significantly jeopardize Poland's own defense.

True.
But you don't make it public, for no reason.
If they decided to do so and are doing that in a several different directions - it means that there are soma changes in society attitude to the matter. They wouldn't dare to play with it, two weeks before elections.