Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

To Mir...

Thanks man !
I do not know and it is not clear to me what is happening in the Russian shipyards and subcontractors that do business with those shipyards if even in November 2023, none of the modernized 971M and 949AM submarines are still operational.
Therefore, they are not able to modernize the inherited submarines, while the construction of new 885M submarines is again going badly, and the start of the construction of additional 885M submarines is not even in sight.
Just a few minutes ago I published a text written by a blogger from Navykorabel.ru.
I don't write and I don't think that this text and its writing are authoritative, but for decades things in the VMF are not as they should be and what's worst - the fleet is shrinking.

As I wrote earlier, the Dnepropetrovsk airport came under fire from cruise missiles. It destroyed two NASAMS air defense systems batteries, three AN/MPQ-64 radars, Soviet-made aircraft and NATO cargo.

Russia is destroying the infrastructure of the Ukrainian Air Force, both in terms of Soviet-made aircraft donated to Eastern Europe and American F-16s, and further weakening Ukrainian air defenses in the face of a possible Russian counter-offensive

https://t.me/vicktop55/18164.

Arrow wrote:

Russia is in such a position that it does not need a blue fleet to become a superpower. It is located in Eurasia, and with a small fleet it can control the Arctic Ocean, etc. Their only limitation is demography. Is a population of 150 million a bit too small for a superpower?

Russians are Christians just like Westerners. Russia is slowly sinking demographically just like the West, but at least it is not importing migrants from Africa and Asia. Decadence is also present in Russia and some Russians are burdened with brands from the West. I know that nothing is eternal and I agree that Russia must improve its demographic image, but the problem is the same as in the West; self-sufficiency and self-centeredness. That is why it is my opinion that the yellow brothers, the Chinese, and still very inferior India, together with the muslims, will sink Christianity.

Where there are no people, there is no country.
One Nigeria will have more inhabitants than the EU in 20 to 30 years. The population aged from 0 to 14 years has over 40% of the total number of inhabitants in Nigeria. I'm surprised no one remembers to send condoms there.
That is the future of a country, people are the greatest resource.

ALAMO wrote:

Hole wrote:

hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13.

Ukro math. When 13 missiles were shot down you "hit" the shipyhard with 2 missiles.

Interesting detail : one of the vids presents something that is clearly an interception, and made in very close vicinity to the yard itself.
So for now, we don't even know if it was hit by the missile, or by the falling debris.
By the way, the interception was done at a relatively high altitude.

Hey Pod, good to see you bro!

So, were there any damage to the shipyard or the ships in construction there?
Apart from the announcements from the Ukrainian side I was not able to understand if those 2 missiles caused substantial damage or not.



Welcome back Podlodka

Arrow wrote:

Russia is in such a position that it does not need a blue fleet to become a superpower. It is located in Eurasia, and with a small fleet it can control the Arctic Ocean, etc. Their only limitation is demography. Is a population of 150 million a bit too small for a superpower?

Completely silly take, unless Russia plans to go isolationist it needs a fleet capable of power projections anywhere in the world, you need a navy to protect trade routes and more.

To MIR..

I agree with you Mir, but today's Germany is no longer the Germany of 30 years ago.
Almost 25% of the German population is over 65 years old. Germany is no longer as ethnically pure as it was until the 1980s, and thus Made in Germany will weaken more and more in the decades to come.

To SIEG Sturmführer

The isolation you write about will eventually reach the US, but it will take several more decades.

Podlodka77 wrote:As for the F-16 planes that will be (or have already been) delivered to Ukroshitstan, I am not afraid that they will shoot down a Russian planes, but I am of the opinion that the West will try with those planes through the pilots of Ukroshitstan (or some mercenaries) to carry out a missile attack long-range strikes on land.

I believe if they use them, they'll do so from West Ukraine to strike rally points and weapon caches of Russians after these cross the Dnieper river.

F-16 needs decent airfield infrastructure, there will be limited amount of places Ukrainians can host them, and if Russians bomb the airstrip F-16 won't be able to fly.

So they'll be in West Ukraine, but there's a chance they won't use them, but keep them together with Abrams, Challenger and the rest of what they still have from wunderweapon catalog to defend NATO assets in the West in case Russians try to wipe them out with a decisive strike.

I think from this moment on we have to consider that NATO won't let go of Western Ukraine easily, it would mean Russians deep in central Europe, Russians aren't too keen on having Western Ukraine either. So what NATO does today and tomorrow is not just about the Ukrainian "offensive" but also about defending their foothold in the west Ukr.

To ZARE

The West plans to use the F-16 primarily for a potential attack with AGM-158 (I'm guessing exactly these missiles) on Russian airports and military infrastructure in Russian cities on the border with Ukroshitstan and in Russian Crimea.
That's just my opinion and doesn't mean I'm right. I think that the MiG-31's and Su-35S's (and Su-30SM) will devastate the F-16 in the air, and maybe that's why they will try to attack the airfields where the Russian fighters are stationed.
I think the primary task of the F-16 aircraft is to attack the airfields and inside Russia as well as the Black Sea fleet which is in a closed pond called the Black Sea.

That is exactly why I think that the still small fleet of Su-57 aircraft in the cooperation with primarily MiG-31 (and with anti-aircraft defense) could play a crucial role.

As for Western Ukroshitstan, which you write about, I am of the opinion that Russia MAY be able to give up only the part that was annexed by Stalin, but that is also a big question.

The Ukrainians release sat images

The Askold doesn't seem damaged, the MOD should clarify this soon

It didn't look from the interception footage that a direct hit happened,

If anything , debris fell on the ship, but I would like to know what damage debris like that can cause

Would it still cause a hole?

I don't recall the status of Askold prior to this incident, was it active? Or in sea trials?

Podlodka77 wrote:

As for Western Ukroshitstan, which you write about, I am of the opinion that Russia MAY be able to give up only the part that was annexed by Stalin, but that is also a big question.

I am not sure, there are a lot of gas pipelines in that area, and furthermore In Rivne there is a nuclear power plant. I would not leave a nuclear powerplant in control of potential criminal regimes.

In addition the map you proposed does not leave direct land connection to the sole sane country of European Union, Hungary.

Arkanghelsk wrote:



The Ukrainians release sat images

The Askold doesn't seem damaged, the MOD should clarify this soon

It didn't look from the interception footage that a direct hit happened,

If anything , debris fell on the ship, but I would like to know what damage debris like that can cause

Would it still cause a hole?

I don't recall the status of Askold prior to this incident, was it active? Or in sea trials?

In the final stage of outfitting before being turned over to the Navy. Russian reports said ship hit by debris and damage depends on where hit and by how big or hot a piece.

I am ambivalent about Pr. 22800/21631

On one hand, such ships seem redundant in the face of collapse of the INF treaty, and to me it would seem better to utilize the funds from this platform to produce thousands of iskander, with cruise missiles that can perform this very task, as well as coastal missile platforms and naval aviation

Meanwhile you can perform the interdiction and sea lane protection with coast guard ships that are armed with pantsir and some kh35 launchers if you really need them like pr. 20385 except without redut

But then I also think, well if INF ever becomes a legal document again, then it's better to have these ships then not

What do you guys think?

Are smaller missile ships such as these, redundant in the face of collapsed arms control for intermediate range missiles?

Maybe back in the 80s it was a nice concept, but if you really want to sink an armada in your coast, it would seem there are many other tools that can be used to do it

See Moskva sinking -

s a population of 150 million a bit too small for a superpower?

Adding 100 million obese, dumb and useless people like some other self-proclaimed "superpower" would achieve nothing.

They have blue water navies to protect their economic interests.

Those countries are in dire need of external sources for ressources.
Russia is self-sufficient.

Arkanghelsk wrote:On one hand, such ships seem redundant in the face of collapse of the INF treaty, and to me it would seem better to utilize the funds from this platform to produce thousands of iskander, with cruise missiles that can perform this very task, as well as coastal missile platforms and naval aviation

The Iskander uses a mobile launcher that is made in Belarus. The Project 22800 is made in Russia. The Iskander launcher can carry only two missiles and this carries eight. It can also act as a patrol boat with its gun and air defense system. This is one of the best ships in Russia's arsenal. Only problem is the production rate really.

lancelot wrote:
The Iskander uses a mobile launcher that is made in Belarus. The Project 22800 is made in Russia. The Iskander launcher can carry only two missiles and this carries eight. It can also act as a patrol boat with its gun and air defense system. This is one of the best ships in Russia's arsenal. Only problem is the production rate really.

I get that, but Russia could produce its own launchers also, and we see in the SMO how iskander is utilized with incredible effects

Actually most of the cruise missile launches we do see, are Kh55/101 launched by tu95,

So we know from practical observations, that Kalibr is not utilized with the same frequency as Kh101

In fact they are launching well over 30 Kh101 every night, or close to it, and with only 3 missile carriers

Can these pr. 22800/21631 do that? No, they carry only 8 per ship, and there are much less ships than bombers as we speak

When you say this ship is the best in the arsenal, I must respectfully disagree - I would say out of the BSF , the ship which proved itself

Was indeed none other than project 11356

This ship was able to enter the coastal missile zone of Ukraine, and protect itself adequately as well as attack important installations

The only drawback of this ship, is the amount of VLS present  which in many ways 22350M will rectify as well as the presence of Redut

We can confidently ascertain, that given the performance of 11356 with shtil launchers

That 22350 with Redut represents the best class in the VMF, although untested as of yet

11356 made me proud

Would 22800 protect itself against the sort of threats 11356 did?

We saw 11356 attacked by drones, Tb2 Bakraktar , neptun/harpoon and aviation (su24, su27)

Sure, as a frigate the Talwar class is better, and the Admiral Gorshkov class is even better.
But they are just way too expensive and cumbersome to use in a lot of missions near littoral waters.
I think the only issue with the Project 22800 is the outdated propulsion. The air defense is ok for a ship of its size since it has the Pantsir-M.

The west is Christian? Podlodka the west is in full apostasy. But I dont think the east will crush Christianity. Only apostate west can do such an insane thing. Also those satellite images give me hope as those small craft are very useful in spite or what some say.

Edit: also great to see you back podlodka!

lancelot wrote:Sure, as a frigate the Talwar class is better, and the Admiral Gorshkov class is even better.
But they are just way too expensive and cumbersome to use in a lot of missions near littoral waters.
I think the only issue with the Project 22800 is the outdated propulsion. The air defense is ok for a ship of its size since it has the Pantsir-M.

If you say so, 22800 IMO is a redundant project

Littoral warfare is a marketing term, we have not seen it in practice, look at Zmeiny Island, Kinburn spit, Nikolayev and Odessa battles, or Crimea

It was impossible for littoral platforms to gain supremacy over coastal missile batteries and air defense batteries on the coast

In reality, no ship can establish that kind of supremacy against vehicles which are ground based with those kind of ranges

Any ship is vulnerable, even a dinghy or a kayak, and so we should not draw the conclusion that smaller ships or kayaks are suitable for littoral warfare

We should admit that littoral warfare as we know it, with amphibious landings, and ship based artillery is a useless idea

All Russian landing ships ended being hit by projectiles, missiles, mines, so many threats exist that it deterred the VMF entirely from prosecuting any kind of littoral combat, even though the entire fleet is composed of these littoral platforms like buyan/karakurt/nanuchka/tarantul etc.

All this would be repeated in the baltic sea, or sea of Okhotsk, generally any closed or semi closed body of water where there are littoral states that can field coastal missiles

The survivability of said ship is nil

That's why it was foolish for the VMF to allow these flotilla admirals to dominate the agenda of building a blue water fleet

What Russia needed was icebreakers only, and large ships to get out to sea from the pacific ocean

You don't need "small missile ships" for littoral combat, you will lose your whole navy in any of those seas

Furthermore, if these ships are useless sitting in Novorossiysk,  because they are in danger at Port in Sevastopol,  and this against Ukraine

Imagine a war where Turkey closes the bosphorus? The entire fleet would have nowhere to go, the Black Sea is an oval turkey shoot for any navy

And I'd say Baltic sea is the next one which makes no sense to have ships based there

The only places which should house ships, are Murmansk, and Vladivostok, and Kamchatka

And then Russia should maintain its bases in Syria with nuclear powered ships, and find some bases in the South Pacific, because without them, the VMF is trapped in its own ports