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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:16 pm

    Mir wrote:
    Arch wrote:The steppe is a flat ground, like the vids above show, basically behind Donbass is a flat ground, which does not offer much cover, and which armor can move without threat from missile attack

    That is tank country for sure but don't disregard the value ATGM's in this environment. Flat terrain with few trees as obstacles is easy pickings for these missiles.


    I think what used to be tank country is no longer tank country. FPV drones can easily outrange tank guns and attack with no line of sight.
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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Nov 04, 2023 5:36 pm

    We should only take what is also reality. I would also like to see Mig-35 in the Air Force but there are no signs that this will ever happen. There are also reasons for this:

    1. The drones will further increase their range and a distance of 100 to 150 km from the front for even very small drones is realistic.
    - this means that the shelters, see Syria, would have to have at least one steel net existing on all sides
    - however, there will soon be so many drones in the swarm that this will not provide sufficient protection
    - especially since drones can also stand still at a distance of 15 to 20 km above the tree line which are used when the front fighters roll out for take-off or landing

    2. Building a larger pilot pool again makes no sense. But there will be no second carrier in the Navy before 2035 and as a land-based naval aviator, the Navy has opted for Su-30
    - this also brings massive advantages in spare parts and cost.

    For this, Russia has too few A50/100. The production of the Il-76MD-90A must finally be increased faster. Even 10 per year is not enough. At least 12 for the air cargo fleet and 2 A50/100 NEW ONES! it should be. It's also about endurance in the air and cover range.

    Even if 2 new Awachs A50/100 will arrive every year from 2026, there will still be only 20 new ones by 2036. That's not enough either!

    An IL-114 Awacs is nice but probably too slow in today's environment. Therefore, make the copy of the copy of the E-2.

    1. If Russia wants to build a second, third and fourth carrier by 2050, similar to China, it already needs 4 units of it per carrier alone. That's 16 plus the same number in the countryside and that makes 32 units. It will take until 2030 until this copy is ready and can fly. So it takes 3 new builds per year plus one to make losses (happen every now and then) by 2040 to 2045 as a fleet incl. to build up personnel, pilots, spare parts chain, experience chain and much more.

    It makes no sense to build another bigger prob Awacs then. But, it makes sense to turn the Tu-214 into a long-range awacs and maritime reconnaissance aircraft with a service life of 12 hours and, in an emergency, also 18 hours.

    The tools and production of the Tu-214 are available. If 2-4 awacs are released per year from 2028, there will be about 50 tu-214 awacs by 2040. Ideal to complement the A50/100 and to keep it cheaper in use.


    Let's talk about possible negotiations with Ukraine.
    The United States is currently facing the fall as a superpower. Politically, militarily and economically. Their society is also falling apart. Morally, culturally, and also from the point of view of health thanks to big Pharma and Nestle.

    If now, especially now, those who are granted a pause, contracts with the USA are not worth anything but really worth nothing, they will break it as soon as they have air again and will start a fire with the CIA, no and again no.

    In 2012, the Syrian army had victory in mind. Ceasefire. The CIA and Israel are massively using this pause to massively arm the terrorists. The result is known. See 2015. Putin had the tanks of the new republics stopped. What happened is known.

    If the problem with Ukraine is not resolved now and finally militarily until the end, every Russian who died, every Ukrainian who died was a loss that could not be more unnecessary. This needs to be clarified now. No negotiations! Complete surrender or nothing at all!

    The military said to Putin in the summer of 2021. Either you clarify it now politically or we have to solve it militarily. If you are gone by 2030, the fascists will come and we will be surrounded enough by then and the Ukrainians will have received every weapon secretly or not secretly.

    See also Nuclear reactors and statements on nuclear weapons. We have seen that the USA and Germany deliver everything. Every break only benefits this falling king USA!

    especially now that the Middle East is reuniting again, Israel is getting hit in the face, Palestine is making the sacrifices so painfully and so full of tears I am myself, but if they are now being betrayed by peace in Ukraine, that is completely cowardly. Their losses were also completely pointless.

    And it also seems to want to use China with Taiwan. if this goes on for a few more months in the Middle East and also in Ukraine, the US will no longer be able to provide any help elsewhere. Then they still have the rockets on their ships and that's it.

    No more negotiations, no more putting off. Palestina should swallow and swallow and swallow for 70 years and just die. Russia should too, see the plan of the USA since 1990. No stop! No negotiations! Surrender unconditionally! Yes, but nothing else anymore!

    No one in Russia will understand the renewed stop with the sacrifices made and will continue to have confidence in the government if now only half-baked goods come out again and in the end the USA breaks everything again!

    No thanks!
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 5:41 pm

    Ukrainian military report a massacre - an airstrike on the formation of soldiers at the Zaporozhye front.

    ▪ An officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is blamed for the incident, for inexplicably gathering a large number of soldiers in one place in a front-line village for a "ceremonial awarding of the personnel." This occurred despite the fact that the Russians "monitor any gathering of more than two people."

    ▪ Yesterday, the Kamyshevahs' village council reported an airstrike near the village of Zarechnoye in the Zaporozhye region, presumably referring to this attack.

    Source: http://t.me/RVvoenkor

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 5:49 pm

    Everybody out and push Laughing

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:11 pm

    Wow, this will change things Laughing Laughing

    The Pentagon secretly handed over the Assault Breacher "anti-mine spider" to Ukraine — Forbes.

    The cost of an armored vehicle is ~$4 million. The crew can dig out and safely detonate laid mines, fill trenches and build anti-tank ramparts, and then mark with tiny flags a safe lane for tanks and combat vehicles that will pass through the breach at high speed

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 15 F-GuAnHXIAAythP?format=jpg&name=small

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    Post  Arrow Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:16 pm

    "The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13. As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship located at the plant was damaged, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday."
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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:32 pm

    Arrow wrote:"The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13. As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship located at the plant was damaged, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday."
    TOR saturation?
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Nov 04, 2023 7:01 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Wow, this will change things Laughing Laughing

    The Pentagon secretly handed over the Assault Breacher "anti-mine spider" to Ukraine — Forbes.


    it will till the first Lancet

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:41 pm

    mnztr wrote:


    dealing with the fortresses head on is stupid and costly. just focus on cutting off resupply. If they are gonna undertake a costly operation, it should be decisive. Like closing the western border so Ukraine collapses

    No it won't work, you can't defeat NATO supported Ukraine without taking away their main defensive positions in the donbass

    It is because of the urban agglomerations and their concrete fortresses, that they can keep Russian assaults on other axis back

    With Donbass, they can mass their numbers and force Russia to hold this area, otherwise risking a breakout of the Ukrainians into Russia proper, recall that debaltseve and Ilovaisk were fundamental to stopping the VSU from reaching Rostov On Don

    The supply routes are also heavily dependent on this area

    You have to take this entire area away from them, because the caves and tunnels, buildings, and factories which dot the entire area are like a home of the VSU which guarantees their survival and pose a threat to Russias territorial integrity

    This is why Russia dismantled Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Mariupol/Azovstal, Bakhmut, Soledar and now Avdeyevka

    These fortresses are part and parcel of the VSU grand defense strategy

    As soon as the linchpin of the Ukrainian defense is taken apart, their defensive strategy more or less falls back towards defense of large city centers

    And the mass they have accumulated will disperse throughout the country, where in donbass size favored them, the sparseness of urban fortifications means that they become a giant target without all the cover

    There is nothing else in the country which even resembles Donbass, let alone the world an area 53,000km2 of urban agglomerations, that is cities of 100,000 or more with extensive industrial factories and concrete buildings, tunnels, fortifications, pillbox, bunkers and the like

    They must be defeated here, and forced to withdraw en masse from the left bank


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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:10 pm

    Mig35 will probably be the best plane to utilize once the F16 appears

    The F16 will be used by the Ukrainians at very great range

    US will not let them fly their f16 close to the front where A50U and S400 can kill them

    The US has seen the performance of the 40n6e and they most certainly have devised new strategy to use f16 with longer range standoff munitions

    To hunt them, su35 will not be adequate, as Su35 is patrolling further behind the front line, for targets which are closer to the contact line

    Mig 35 will be needed to sortie quickly upon detection of F16 planes carrying possible JASSM-ER

    You will need Mig35 to fly with radar off guided by the A50U, to enter the airspace over Krivoy Rog and Zhytomir, Vinnitsya, and other regions, and quickly get to the launch zone of R77M to hit the F16

    Su 57 has bigger things to worry about that to perform this task, and it cannot be risked on this sort of mission

    Mig35 is the plane which is needed for rapid sortie, and interception of f16

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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:12 pm

    Not really. You would need 3 times more pilots. They are expensive to train. That's why the su-27 is a better choice.

    You are missing the point... having far fewer aircraft flying around means less coverage and less effective air defence... especially when the costs are the same essentially.

    That's why they got ride of migs for sukhoi after the USSR. Su-27 is jist a better choice for the modern russian air force which is way smaller than the soviet air force.

    They were a bankrupt country haemoraging money to the west... they couldn't afford any fighters and didn't buy any for a very long time... getting rid of one type made sense and getting rid of the small light aircraft made sense, but now they have money getting rid of the concept of affordable fighter would be stupid and short sighted.

    Even on their aircraft carrier they have MiG-29KRs operating with the Su-33s because it means they can have more aircraft in total on the ship at any given time and the get the long range capacity of the Su-33 together with the MiG-29KR which is just as good at shorter ranges.

    We just saw how a lancet destroyed a mig on such frontline airbase.

    We did but that was an Orc airfield that is not as well defended as a Russian airfield is.

    Or are you saying Russia does not need anything except Lancets and land mines to beat HATO?

    The Lancet didn't just stumble on that MiG on the ground and if that MiG had been an Su-27 would you be saying Su-27s were junk and should be removed from service too?

    Such things as frontline airbases are useless.

    Bullshit. Russian attack helicopters seem to be doing an excellent job killing Ukrainian vehicles. Frontline bases are at risk but that risk can be managed.

    If frontline airbases are useless why have we not seen continuous footage from Ukraine showing enormous numbers of helicopters and other aircraft destroyed at Russian air bases?

    Maybe because the occasional lucky hit means **** all and only an idiot would think they are now useless because one base was hit one time.

    You need to put your fighters far enough to deny the possibility to see them destroyed by cheap drones or missiles.

    There are Ukrainians throughout Russian territory, each of which can buy a cheap small drone and fly it at any airfield or other target anywhere in Russia so what you are saying is that Russia cannot have an airforce because it is too vulnerable.

    For this you need a good range which the mig-29 doesn't have, only modern version have but we are talking about the potentiel of upgrading old airframes. Su-27 is a better choice.

    Su-27 is a bigger target and would be easier to find and hit on the ground.


    They hinted they will use the tu-214 but nothing since. I think they should have both. Il-114 is cheap compare to a-50 and tu-214.

    Everything is cheap till you fill it with expensive avionics and datalinks and put a big expensive AESA radar on it... there are no cheap AWACS aircraft.

    Cost is the same as they use hundreds in the civilian aviation.

    The cost of avionics and equipment will make them rather different and rather more expensive to buy and to operate.

    I wonder if Russia will be fooled into further agreements this time. Just like Minsk or some nonsense about a neutral Ukraine that they proposed in April 2022.

    Don't worry. Zelensky has already said no negotiations, it was all lies.

    Funny that there was an article in a western publication that had his image and some words, but the word they made big above his picture was Nobody...

    They realise he is now a nobody and he is costing the west money and causing problems and now they clearly want him gone...

    Yes, but it would make sense if, by bringing many Ukrainian forces to Avdiivka, they made a larger breakthrough on the front in another section. However, progress on the entire front is micro.

    Stop measuring progress in metres... it is measured in dead and injured and those that surrender and burning vehicles and ammo and fuel dumps.

    The Pentagon secretly handed over the Assault Breacher "anti-mine spider" to Ukraine — Forbes.

    The cost of an armored vehicle is ~$4 million. The crew can dig out and safely detonate laid mines, fill trenches and build anti-tank ramparts, and then mark with tiny flags a safe lane for tanks and combat vehicles that will pass through the breach at high speed

    I think they will notice that... Can it survive a Kornet to the nose?

    They must be defeated here, and forced to withdraw en masse from the left bank

    If they don't suffer a collapse before then and get rid of Zelensky and offer an unconditional surrender.

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    Post  owais.usmani Sun Nov 05, 2023 12:15 am

    Arrow wrote:"The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13. As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship located at the plant was damaged, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday."

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    Post  mnztr Sun Nov 05, 2023 1:36 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    mnztr wrote:


    dealing with the fortresses head on is stupid and costly. just focus on cutting off resupply. If they are gonna undertake a costly operation, it should be decisive. Like closing the western border so Ukraine collapses

    No it won't work, you can't defeat NATO supported Ukraine without taking away their main defensive positions in the donbass

    It is because of the urban agglomerations and their concrete fortresses, that they can keep Russian assaults on other axis back

    With Donbass, they can mass their numbers and force Russia to hold this area, otherwise risking a breakout of the Ukrainians into Russia proper, recall that debaltseve and Ilovaisk were fundamental to stopping the VSU from reaching Rostov On Don

    The supply routes are also heavily dependent on this area

    You have to take this entire area away from them, because the caves and tunnels,  buildings, and factories which dot the entire area are like a home of the VSU which guarantees their survival and pose a threat to Russias territorial integrity

    This is why Russia dismantled Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Mariupol/Azovstal, Bakhmut, Soledar and now Avdeyevka

    These fortresses are part and parcel of the VSU grand defense strategy

    As soon as the linchpin of the Ukrainian defense is taken apart, their defensive strategy more or less falls back towards defense of large city centers

    And the mass they have accumulated will disperse throughout the country, where in donbass size favored them, the sparseness of urban fortifications means that they become a giant target without all the cover

    There is nothing else in the country which even resembles Donbass, let alone the world an area 53,000km2 of urban agglomerations, that is cities of 100,000 or more with extensive industrial factories and concrete buildings, tunnels, fortifications, pillbox, bunkers and the like

    They must be defeated here, and forced to withdraw en masse from the left bank



    I disagree, you maintain sufficient troops in the area and artillery If they make any move to mass you pummel them with air power. How long will they be able to stay there without resupply? Once supply is cut off their military power will rapidly degrade and they will be forced to surrender. I doubt the AFU has much strength in the west to resist s decisive move, maybe they do. The Russians would know i suppose.
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    Post  mnztr Sun Nov 05, 2023 1:42 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Mig35 will probably be the best plane to utilize once the F16 appears

    The F16 will be used by the Ukrainians at very great range

    US will not let them fly their f16 close to the front where A50U and S400 can kill them

    The US has seen the performance of the 40n6e and they most certainly have devised new strategy to use f16 with longer range standoff munitions

    To hunt them, su35 will not be adequate, as Su35 is patrolling further behind the front line, for targets which are closer to the contact line

    Mig 35 will be needed to sortie quickly upon detection of F16 planes carrying possible JASSM-ER

    You will need Mig35 to fly with radar off guided by the A50U, to enter the airspace over Krivoy Rog and Zhytomir, Vinnitsya, and other regions, and quickly get to the launch zone of R77M to hit the F16

    Su 57 has bigger things to worry about that to perform this task, and it cannot be risked on this sort of mission

    Mig35 is the plane which is needed for rapid sortie, and interception of f16

    Just maintain a patrol with MIG-31. They can get close enough real fast to launch R-37's . You don't need more the 4 planes to cover a massive amount of space.

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    Post  Mir Sun Nov 05, 2023 3:10 am

    mnztr wrote:

    Just maintain a patrol with MIG-31. They can get close enough real fast to launch R-37's . You don't need more the 4 planes to cover a massive amount of space.

    The Su-35 can pretty much do the same thing (not to mention the Su-57). The whole Su-27/30 family is perfectly suitable for the CAP role with their huge internal fuel loads. They can also be used as point interceptors or air superiority fighters with a lighter fuel load but also with a serious amount of AA missiles. Besides the Russians don't have too many Mig-29's around - let alone Mig-35's!

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:00 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Wow, this will change things Laughing Laughing

    The Pentagon secretly handed over the Assault Breacher "anti-mine spider" to Ukraine — Forbes.


    it will till the first Lancet

    O Scalpel Laughing
    The first batch was formally delivered to the troops.
    Even cheaper than the Lancet, 5 kilo warhead, that can be changed for HEAT or HE before release.

    By the way, is it only me finding funny that the only victories they can get against Russkie fleet is hitting nonoperational ships in drydocks, while spending the missiles number that should be enough to sing a cruiser? scratch scratch

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    Post  Big_Gazza Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:27 am

    owais.usmani wrote:
    Arrow wrote:"The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13. As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship located at the plant was damaged, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday."


    This is the entry under Askold in wikipedia..  this is why I'll NEVER donate a single fcking kopek to that organisation...  angry

    Let see how long it takes for these idiots to reverse this NATOfaggot vandalism.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 15 Captur10


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    Post  Isos Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:27 am

    We did but that was an Orc airfield that is not as well defended as a Russian airfield is.

    Or are you saying Russia does not need anything except Lancets and land mines to beat HATO?

    The Lancet didn't just stumble on that MiG on the ground and if that MiG had been an Su-27 would you be saying Su-27s were junk and should be removed from service too?

    Plenty of times russian airbases were successfully hit by ukro drones with many aircraft and choppers destroyed.
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 05, 2023 5:37 am

    The Black Sea is a closed sea and is practically a "pond", so it is no wonder that quite a number of ships and submarines were hit.
    As for the project 22800 which was probably hit in the shipyard in Kerch, I am completely indifferent.
    Four MZKT trucks with 9M729 missiles from the Iskander-K system can do the same job and never be destroyed.

    The Russian Navy has been completely forgotten and will probably continue as long as the SMO lasts.
    The contract for the construction of 6 project 22350 frigates was not signed, which was expected, nor was the construction of the new 885M submarines started. The only problem is that the inefficiency in construction was desperate even before the SMO, and after the SMO it will not be improved.
    I have no doubt at all that the rearmament of the Russian Air Force and Ground Army will go full speed, but the fleet will be even smaller than it is now.
    None of the Project 971M submarines are operational as well as the 949AM.
    We can forget the dreams that Russia will have barely 20 SSGN submarines. Currently, Russia has only 10 operational SSN/SSGN submarines.
    Since there is no money for everything, the navy suffered first because the already inefficient shipyards showed desperate results.



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    Post  Arrow Sun Nov 05, 2023 5:56 am

    Welcome Podlodka77 to the forum again welcome

    As for submarines, the year is not over yet. The next keel for 885M may be laid in December, as will frigate 22350.
    For Russia, the most important project at the moment is the 955A project and it is in full swing. Bulava was launched from another ship. Russia will soon have seven modern SSBNs in service.

    Since there is no money for everything, the navy suffered first because the already inefficient shipyards showed desperate results. wrote:

    hey have a lot of money. They will increase the budget by 70% in 2024. It's more a matter of priorities. It will be mainly a land army.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 05, 2023 6:15 am

    Arrow wrote:Welcome Podlodka77 to the forum again welcome

    As for submarines, the year is not over yet. The next keel for 885M may be laid in December, as will frigate 22350.
    For Russia, the most important project at the moment is the 955A project and it is in full swing. Bulava was launched from another ship. Russia will soon have seven modern SSBNs in service.

    Greetings to you, but I have not been optimistic about the navy for a long time. The only two projects whose construction is going well are the 955A and 636.6 submarines. Everything else is just wishful thinking.
    None of the submarines that were modernized from Project 971 to 971M are still operational or 949A to 949AM. K-564 "Arkhangelsk" has not yet been delivered to the Russian Navy. Even the frigate "Golovko" is in dispute between Severnaya Werf and the Russian Navy over the price of the ship. A mess, a complete mess.
    I am already convinced that the Russian Air Force will have more than 76 Su-57 aircraft by December 31, 2027, that is, aircraft for which a contract has been signed and whose delivery date is December 31 2027. On the other hand, I am already convinced that even the 885M submarines that are currently under construction will not be operational until 2030.

    The budget you mention will go to tanks, helicopters, artillery, aircraft, drones, air defense systems, tactical ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, ICBM's and project 955A submarines.
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    Post  Arrow Sun Nov 05, 2023 6:34 am

    The budget you mention will go to tanks, helicopters, artillery, aircraft, drones, air defense systems, tactical ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, ICBM's and project 955A submarine wrote:

    A new army of contract workers may consume a lot of resources? If they want to have 1 million contract soldiers in the land forces. Now contract workers have very good rates.
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 05, 2023 6:58 am

    To Arrow....

    The Navy cannot win any conflict and that requires soldiers on the ground.
    Therefore, the Russian investments and the planned increase in the military budget are justified and the allocations will be for what I mentioned; tanks, artillery, helicopters, aviation, drones, as well as missiles of all kinds + ICBM's and additional 955A submarines.
    New corvettes, frigates, SSGN submarines and Project 677 submarines will be excluded from that story at least until better times.
    All aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are working at full steam; Irkut, NAPO, KNAAZ, Arsenyev. The same applies to manufacturers of armored vehicles and missiles. Do you think it is the same in Sevmash ? No, I don't think so.
    And with the reduced and slowed down production, the quality of the workforce also decreases, and Sevmash has just started to give solid results.

    I read what some members of the forum write, and for the sake of example, I cite the information in which some think that Russia will receive a total of 12 Su-35S aircraft this year. I would not be surprised if that number is 24, because there are no official announcements about the number of aircraft delivered.
    Although the Russian aviation had losses, I am sure that the number of planes (Su-30/34//35S) is greater now than before the SMO.

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    Post  Hole Sun Nov 05, 2023 7:14 am

    hit a shipyard in the city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, and air defense systems shot down 13.
    Ukro math. When 13 missiles were shot down you "hit" the shipyhard with 2 missiles. Rolling Eyes

    The crew can dig out and safely detonate laid mines, fill trenches and build anti-tank ramparts,
    The mine plough at the front worked really great with those modified Leopards.
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 05, 2023 7:27 am

    What has been interesting to me since the beginning of the SMO is that the West has never delivered its attack helicopters.
    Not once was there a mention of the "best" helicopter in the world, the AH-64.
    That crap was also regularly knocked down by goat-fuckers, so I'm sorry that they are not in Ukroshitstan.

    As for the F-16 planes that will be (or have already been) delivered to Ukroshitstan, I am not afraid that they will shoot down a Russian planes, but I am of the opinion that the West will try with those planes through the pilots of Ukroshitstan (or some mercenaries) to carry out a missile attack long-range strikes on land. I am convinced that through those planes, the West and primarily the USA will try to test many air-to-surface missiles, including the AGM-158 JASSM. And that's about it.
    That "miracle" will last for a few days, as Shoigu himself said.

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