Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+65
Podlodka77
Krepost
xeno
Lapain
billybatts91
Arsenic
walle83
PhSt
SolidarityWithRussia
Tsavo Lion
Werewolf
Pincus Shain
Pacense
VARGR198
zare
SeigSoloyvov
owais.usmani
LMFS
d_taddei2
Rodion_Romanovic
par far
PapaDragon
thegopnik
Walther von Oldenburg
zorobabel
ahmedfire
The-thing-next-door
Sprut-B
Scorpius
Odin of Ossetia
Big_Gazza
littlerabbit
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
Godric
Isos
GunshipDemocracy
Serberus
Airbornewolf
ucmvulcan
Ispan
Eugenio Argentina
Mir
Stealthflanker
Hole
Belisarius
lyle6
Broski
Firebird
JohninMK
Karl Haushofer
TMA1
ALAMO
higurashihougi
sepheronx
Backman
GarryB
mnztr
Arkanghelsk
bandit6
Dr.Snufflebug
Regular
franco
lancelot
Arrow
kvs
69 posters

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 11496
    Points : 11464
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Isos Fri Nov 03, 2023 5:48 pm

    Hole wrote:

    Mig-29 are good but their short legs are a big disadvantage for a country the size of Russia.
    It was meant as a frontline fighter. The short legs aren´t that important if your Air Force has thousands of them (as planned back in the 80´s).


    Actually modern cruise missiles and long range suicide drones makes such concept totally dumb.

    Even more when you know they don't have shelters and hardened hangars to protect against even the smallest drones.

    A force of 100 su-27 with upgraded radars using the old stocks of r-27 to hunt missiles and launch some kh-35 here and there would be a big power up.
    franco
    franco


    Posts : 6922
    Points : 6948
    Join date : 2010-08-18

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  franco Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:21 pm

    Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (for the period from October 28 to November 3, 2023)

    From October 28 to November 3, 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out fifteen group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons, places of storage of weapons and military equipment, as well as temporary locations of Ukrainian servicemen, nationalists and foreign mercenaries.

    As a result of the strikes, hangars for preparing Ukrainian aircraft for departure, production sites for unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats, groups of foreign instructors and mercenaries were destroyed.

    In the Kupyansk direction, units of the "Western" grouping of troops occupied more advantageous lines and positions with professional actions, and also repelled 24 enemy counterattacks.

    Air strikes and artillery fire affected the manpower and equipment of the 25th airborne, 14th and 115th mechanized, as well as the 95th airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Timkovka of the Kharkiv region and Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic.

    Enemy losses during the week in this direction amounted to over 755 servicemen, seven tanks, eight armored combat vehicles, 17 vehicles, 16 field artillery guns, as well as two MLRS combat vehicles.

    In addition, two field ammunition depots of the AFU units were destroyed.

    In the Krasnolimansky direction, 20 attacks by assault detachments of the 24th, 63rd and 67th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Vodiane, Leninskoye and Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic were repelled by the skillful actions of units of the Center group of troops, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems.

    The enemy's losses during this period amounted to more than 920 servicemen, three tanks, 14 armored combat vehicles, 19 cars and five guns.

    In the Donetsk direction, Russian units of the "Southern" grouping of troops repelled six attacks and defeated units of the 28th, 67th and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Kurdyumovka, Kleshcheyevka and Maryinka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

    The enemy's losses amounted to more than 1,340 servicemen, seven tanks, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 22 vehicles, 19 field artillery guns and four MLRS combat vehicles.

    Also, two warehouses with ammunition and military equipment were destroyed.

    In the South Donetsk direction, Russian units repelled four attacks by assault detachments of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Vodiane and Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

    During this period, the enemy's losses amounted to over 1,110 military personnel, seven tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles, 28 vehicles, nine field artillery guns, as well as a MLRS combat vehicle.

    In the Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian troops conducted an active defense, during which they repelled eight attacks by the 33rd mechanized and 71st Jaeger brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Verbovoye and Workino of the Zaporozhye region.

    The enemy's losses in this direction during the week amounted to more than 760 military personnel, four tanks, 26 armored combat vehicles, 27 vehicles, 14 field artillery guns, as well as a MLRS combat vehicle.

    In the Kherson direction, as a result of artillery fire raids, preemptive actions of Russian troops, the enemy's attempts to land and gain a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper were thwarted.

    In addition, units of the 35th and 37th brigades of the AFU Marines were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Tyaginka and Ivanovka in the Kherson region.

    As a result of the fighting, the enemy's losses amounted to up to 550 servicemen killed and wounded, 11 field artillery guns, 40 cars and 35 different swimming facilities.

    Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense systems destroyed 10 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force and one helicopter during the week, including: five Mig-29, three Su-27, one Su-25 attack aircraft, one L-39 combat training aircraft, as well as a Mi-8 helicopter.

    In addition, four ATACMS tactical missiles, three JDAM guided aerial bombs, three HARM anti-radar missiles, 51 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and 274 unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted.

    During the week, 28 Ukrainian servicemen voluntarily surrendered to Russian troops.

    Only on November 1 of this year, fifteen Ukrainian servicemen voluntarily surrendered to one of the units of the Vostok group of troops, who refused to follow the orders of their command and die during the next "meat assault".

    In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 525 aircraft, 254 helicopters, 8586 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 anti-aircraft missile systems, 13135 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1177 multiple rocket launchers, 6967 field artillery and mortars, as well as 14923 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12484035@egNews

    GarryB, d_taddei2, kvs, Godric and zardof like this post

    Odin of Ossetia
    Odin of Ossetia


    Posts : 918
    Points : 1005
    Join date : 2015-07-03

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Odin of Ossetia Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:05 pm

    Isos wrote:Looks like georgian war... there is no sign of upgraded tanks and bmp in that first part of the video.




    http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/264/georgian-losses-reports




    GarryB likes this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 11023
    Points : 11003
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 48
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Hole Fri Nov 03, 2023 10:00 pm

    Actually modern cruise missiles and long range suicide drones makes such concept totally dumb.
    You lamented about the short legs of the plane and I told you that it didn´t matter in the time the plane was created.
    And there were thousands of HAS at the major and even smaller airbases the Russians used back then.

    GarryB likes this post

    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 11496
    Points : 11464
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Isos Fri Nov 03, 2023 10:50 pm

    Hole wrote:
    Actually modern cruise missiles and long range suicide drones makes such concept totally dumb.
    You lamented about the short legs of the plane and I told you that it didn´t matter in the time the plane was created.
    And there were thousands of HAS at the major and even smaller airbases the Russians used back then.

    Yes I'm saying for today standards with much smaller airforce than the soviet ones for a huge country like Russia and enemies that are using cheap long range drones the short legs of the mig-29 are not good at all.

    Who cares about the 80s.

    HAS ? Are you thinking of those hardened shelters on their bases ? They were not large ebough for mig-29 and su-27 for most of them. They weee build for the smaller mig-21 I think.
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 40090
    Points : 40588
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:25 am

    It has the normal Zhuk-M radar which is worse than N011VEP and far worse than N001VEP+Pero that can be mounted in a su-27.

    They don't need an AESA to detect and shoot down low flying missiles like Neptune... the old radars are a fraction of the price of new AESAs.

    Mig-29 are good but their short legs are a big disadvantage for a country the size of Russia.

    Most Flankers fly with 1/3rd fuel or less most missions so its extra range potential is meaningless.

    Modern MiGs have inflight refuelling probes if they need to fly further and can also carry a centreline fuel tank to extend range and endurance when needed.

    Russian Air Force aircraft don't fly circuits from region to region protecting Russia... most regions in European Russia has airfields and air units so close together they don't need very long range capable aircraft because they would just get in each others way.

    In the Far East and Far North range might be useful but range just allows you to head out into the middle of nowhere and back, which is not as useful as it sounds.

    Having upgraded su-27 with a N001VEP radar is a better solution than upgrading old mig-29.

    Not at all... the operational costs of Su-27s are higher than for MiG-29s so you could have fewer Su-27s or more MiGs and more MiGs would be more effective.

    Another thing they should have is the awacs Il-114, specially in Crimea. Far cheaper to operate than a-50U.

    It would make sense to accelerate an AWACS platform for their new aircraft carriers and have land based versions of that smaller aircraft perhaps?

    Otherwise a Tu-214 would be a good platform to base an AWACS design upon with all sorts of sensors and equipment on board...

    Actually modern cruise missiles and long range suicide drones makes such concept totally dumb.

    I would totally disagree... having tactical fighters operating near the front line engaging ground targets with glide bombs to allow standoff release and also SEAD weapons and of course their onboard sensors like AESA radar and EO equipment scanning for enemy forces and equipment you could quickly populate operational maps with a real time view of what is happening on the battlefield.

    A datalink to troops on the ground could mean the commander of a tank force could use the air view around himself delivered via datalink consisting of a combination of EO optics and AESA high resolution radar so he can pick out targets and highlight his own forces on the display for the pilots to engage anything that is giving the ground forces a problem in real time.

    Even more when you know they don't have shelters and hardened hangars to protect against even the smallest drones.

    Lazers and jammers and airburst shells as well as drones that kill other drones will restore the balance and make operating on a battlefield a bit safer if not actually safe.

    Russia has a range of different systems and protections in development for the purpose of protecting equipment.

    Note we hear about the ATACMS attack on a helicopter base but if drones are so damn effective we should be hearing about helicopter bases getting hit all the time.

    It took a new and different system to become a problem and it seems they now know how to deal with that problem now too.

    The response performance of the Russian military to new threats and problems is quite frankly rather more impressive than any HATO fanboi ever gave them credit for.

    Part of the reason the west thought Kiev would win was completely underestimating the Russian military from top to bottom...

    A force of 100 su-27 with upgraded radars using the old stocks of r-27 to hunt missiles and launch some kh-35 here and there would be a big power up.

    And for the same price in terms of upgrade and operational costs they could probably have 300 MiG-29 based fighters that would be just as effective or even better.

    Yes I'm saying for today standards with much smaller airforce than the soviet ones for a huge country like Russia and enemies that are using cheap long range drones the short legs of the mig-29 are not good at all.

    Who cares about the 80s.

    Not everything that needs protecting is on the front line... MiG-29s could easily defend Crimea and the sea approaching areas, they could also protect St Petersberg and Moscow and other specific places where numbers are more useful than range...

    Air defences around Russian airfields are not the same as in the 1980s either and as SOSNA and S-350 and new models of Pantsir and TOR enter service and of course lasers and jamming equipment improves Russian airfields will be safer than HATO HQs ever were.

    Hole likes this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 7291
    Points : 7383
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  ALAMO Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:03 am

    An interesting news that passed without notice here.
    Next year, Russian military spending are set for a record hike up to 109 bln euro, 68%.
    That is a nominal value, while updating it with PPP we will get roughly 250 bln ...
    And that is not an end of the story.
    Russian military is arming itself with the help of state-owned enterprises. Using state-owned resources.
    A tank costs 1/3th !!! of the equivalent western made, at most.
    A ship odreder in western shipyard for 0.8 bln E, cost around 0.3 in Russia, being much better armed.
    I have no idea how to adjust those numbers properly, but if you ask me - the real size of Russian military spending is at least on pair with the US.
    And again, that's not all folks.
    Here comes the efficiency of spending. Russkie don't waste money on 800 abroad bases. They don't operate behemoth behemoth-sized carrier fleet, being a sitting duck if confronted with a potent opponent.
    All that money is being assigned without any major changes in budget composition. With no serious debt increase, and no cuts in other spheres - opposite ...
    While western shitstream is being busy with scratching each other backs, cheering mighty statements how they will squeeze and crush Russkie any moment ...
    Being a nose full at debt, with no real industrial power, and being actually deindustrialized as we speak...
    It is fukin' unbelievable scratch

    sepheronx, GarryB, franco, Arrow, Big_Gazza, JohninMK, Hole and like this post

    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 11496
    Points : 11464
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Isos Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:18 am

    And for the same price in terms of upgrade and operational costs they could probably have 300 MiG-29 based fighters that would be just as effective or even better.

    Not really. You would need 3 times more pilots. They are expensive to train. That's why the su-27 is a better choice. That's why they got ride of migs for sukhoi after the USSR. Su-27 is jist a better choice for the modern russian air force which is way smaller than the soviet air force.

    I would totally disagree... having tactical fighters operating near the front line engaging ground targets with glide bombs to allow standoff release and also SEAD weapons and of course their onboard sensors like AESA radar and EO equipment scanning for enemy forces and equipment you could quickly populate operational maps with a real time view of what is happening on the battlefield.

    We just saw how a lancet destroyed a mig on such frontline airbase.

    Such things as frontline airbases are useless. You need to put your fighters far enough to deny the possibility to see them destroyed by cheap drones or missiles. For this you need a good range which the mig-29 doesn't have, only modern version have but we are talking about the potentiel of upgrading old airframes. Su-27 is a better choice.

    It would make sense to accelerate an AWACS platform for their new aircraft carriers and have land based versions of that smaller aircraft perhaps?

    Otherwise a Tu-214 would be a good platform to base an AWACS design upon with all sorts of sensors and equipment on board...

    They hinted they will use the tu-214 but nothing since. I think they should have both. Il-114 is cheap compare to a-50 and tu-214.

    They have plenty of unused airframes they could upgrade with the awacs avionics. No need to make serial production of just one. The israeli did this by modifying tvis and that aircraft. Everytime they just add the newest sensors.

    Good thing is they are still the civilian aircraft that can be maintain the same way as their civilian couterpart. So you don't care if you have 1 or 10. Cost is the same as they use hundreds in the civilian aviation.
    avatar
    Arrow


    Posts : 3173
    Points : 3165
    Join date : 2012-02-12

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Arrow Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:34 am

    "U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official."

    I wonder if Russia will be fooled into further agreements this time. Just like Minsk or some nonsense about a neutral Ukraine that they proposed in April 2022.

    owais.usmani likes this post

    avatar
    Arrow


    Posts : 3173
    Points : 3165
    Join date : 2012-02-12

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Arrow Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:58 am

    What are the real Russian losses at Avdiivka? Ukraine releases many propaganda films showing the destruction of a large amount of Russian equipment?


    lancelot
    lancelot


    Posts : 3008
    Points : 3006
    Join date : 2020-10-18

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  lancelot Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:32 am

    Russia is having large losses at Avdiivka. But Ukraine is having large losses in multiple areas of the front.
    By continuing the pressure at Avdiivka, Russia is forcing Ukraine to whittle down forces in other areas of the front to reinforce it making them weak elsewhere.

    Ukraine already sent what few token Leopard 2s they had to Avdiivka and they got wasted.

    GarryB, Arrow, zardof and jon_deluxe like this post

    avatar
    Arrow


    Posts : 3173
    Points : 3165
    Join date : 2012-02-12

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Arrow Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:34 am

    By continuing the pressure at Avdiivka, Russia is forcing Ukraine to whittle down forces in other areas of the front making them weak. wrote:

    Yes, but it would make sense if, by bringing many Ukrainian forces to Avdiivka, they made a larger breakthrough on the front in another section. However, progress on the entire front is micro.

    Big_Gazza dislikes this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15397
    Points : 15538
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:47 am

    Learning from history Very Happy

    GarryB, Big_Gazza, LMFS, Hole, Mir and jon_deluxe like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 7291
    Points : 7383
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  ALAMO Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:56 am

    JohninMK wrote:Learning from history Very Happy

    How it ends when you force miners to fight you ... Laughing Laughing Laughing

    However I disagree with him, they are not the first one who expedited the first Ukro cosmonaut Laughing I saw one, months ago, and it was an artillery job Laughing Laughing Laughing

    GarryB, PapaDragon, LMFS, Hole, Mir and jon_deluxe like this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 11023
    Points : 11003
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 48
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Hole Sat Nov 04, 2023 12:36 pm

    Who cares about the 80s.
    Sure. But why should they throw away good airplanes in the middle of a conflict?

    They were not large ebough for mig-29 and su-27 for most of them.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 004714
    Looks big enough for a MiG-29. Very Happy

    The shelters build for the Yak-28 and later the MiG-25 were large enough for the MiG-29 and in most cases for the Su-27.
    Problem is that thanks to Gorbi and Elzin Russia gave up all those bases with those shelters. Russia was in the deep rear,
    so not many airbases with "bunkers" there, except some in the High North and Far East and some PVO bases.

    All bases do have dispersal areas which was good enough some years ago. With todays kamikaze drones not.
    Some blame Russia for not building hundreds of new shelters but for the most part of the last 20 year Russia had more
    pressing needs. At some point the survival of large parts of the Air Force were at stake. The money was needed for planes
    and spare parts, not bunkers.

    And to be fair: NATO didn´t build a lot new shelters in the past 30 years. It´s just that they didn´t move to new bases a
    few thousand kilometres away.

    However, progress on the entire front is micro.
    Progress is measured in dead enemies and destroyed equipment.
    That movement forward towards Kupyansk, around Bakhmut and Avdiivka is neccessary to keep the meatgrinders going.
    Also Russia is building up pressure along most of the frontline.
    I´m still convinced that at some point Russia will move in additional troops from the Belgorod area and the North.
    Let´s see how the Ukros will cope with that.

    GarryB, Big_Gazza, Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E, lancelot, Mir, jon_deluxe and Belisarius like this post

    avatar
    Belisarius


    Posts : 839
    Points : 839
    Join date : 2022-01-04

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Belisarius Sat Nov 04, 2023 12:37 pm

    What are the real Russian losses at Avdiivka? Ukraine releases many propaganda films showing the destruction of a large amount of Russian equipment?

    Russia is having large losses at Avdiivka.


    I have already shown here the unreliability of Ukrainian footage about Russian losses in Avdeevka:
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Img_2376
    Z-Committee:

    In chats and many channels, photos of the enemy about our losses are going viral (well, for them it’s understandable, the shame of Rabotino will forever remain in the memory and it needs to be replaced somehow). But why do our people rush around with them?

    Let's take a look:

    🟥1. Not Avdeevka (Bombing of the DRG bridge)
    🟦2. BTR-50 (destroyed) T-64BV ( knocked out, not destroyed )
    10/10/2023
    🟦3. Two Urals 4320 were destroyed, the D-30 was damaged rather than destroyed .
    10/10/2023
    🟪6.7. One MT-LB (destroyed), the rest intact 10/10/2023
    🟥4. Not from near Avdeevka
    🟨5. Two T-72s (shot down, abandoned). The remaining skeletons are Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment standing since May (BMP-1 and T-72AV)
    🟦6. T-72B (knocked out), withstood a drop from a copter, two FPVs and a collision with a mine, no BC is on fire. 10/13/2023
    🟦7. The UAZ-452 (damaged) did not even light up after the copter was reset, it stood empty under the mask net. 10/13/2023
    ⬜8.9. MT-LB (abandoned, damaged) . Two military-industrial complex Ural (destroyed). T-64BV (destroyed). 10/12/2023
    🟥10. Not from near Avdeevka
    🟩11. T-72B (abandoned) 10/10/2023
    🟩11. BTR-80 (abandoned) , two BMP-1 (abandoned)
    🟩11. T-72B (abandoned)

    Nobody says there are no losses. But they clearly do not correspond to cheap stuffing. When they record anything into destroyed equipment for propaganda purposes. There is no particular point in considering each such work, so once will be enough to understand.
    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/69828

    So why the hell do you keep pushing this Ukie propaganda about Russian losses in Avdeevka?

    sepheronx, GarryB, Big_Gazza, Hole, Mir and jon_deluxe like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15397
    Points : 15538
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 1:45 pm

    When most of our positional data comes from small maps or relatively high flying drones with often wide angle cameras, I and I suspect many of us forget about scale. The vastness and flatness of the area is overlooked. This clip brings it into focus.

    GarryB, zardof, Hole, Mir and jon_deluxe like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15397
    Points : 15538
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:34 pm

    I have just posted this on this thread.

    "
    JohninMK
    November 4, 2023 9:29 am

    If the US forces Ukraine to the negotiating table will Russia turn up? Why would it?

    Putin, as a Kremlin dove may well be in favour, but he has a very real problem, his people appear to want quite reasonably a just reward for the sacrifices they have been forced to make. Russian deaths over the last 18 or so months are what its all about at that political level but are just a part of it diplomatically. Putin is on course to be lauded by his people as the most significant Russian leader for centuries. Will he put his place in history at risk by doing a deal that the people view as ‘soft’.

    As written/implied by other posters, the aggressive posture and actions of the US/NATO since 1991, including the move of NATO many times more than “not an inch” eastwards, followed by the blatant admissions that the Minsk Agreements were only a cover for Ukrainian military enhancement, have made certain that the Russians know from bitter experience that the US is not “agreement capable”.

    We are now moving at a pace dictated by the Russians into the position where their military will unambiguously defeat the Ukrainian Army (there not being much left of its Airforce and Navy). Can the US allow this NATO invincibility destroying event to occur or does it have to settle it diplomatically? Again, why would the Russians let them?

    You all may not be aware but the Russians have just increased by around 70% their defence budget for next year. This is not like the US profit bloated spend as most is in State owned organisations. They are cranking out everything from tanks to fighters to bullets as if there is no tomorrow. Basically trying to ensure that for them, plus their friends, there will be a tomorrow. Does that sound to you as if they are looking to do a deal anytime soon?

    Regardless of the rights and wrongs the Russians are looking on agast at the US supported slaughter of civilians in Gaza.

    They may in DC think they can get a deal but they have misread the Russians at every move for years. Seemingly trying to judge them by their own standards. Will someone rise out of the Swamp with the skills to sort this?

    With a US President’s word or signature now proven worthless, would the US Congress, for that is who the Russian would insist sign up to any deal, get on board?"

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/11/04/the-meatgrinder-report-u-s-and-eu-officials-gently-discussing-need-for-ukraine-to-enter-peace-negotiations-with-russia/#more-252803

    GarryB, LMFS and Mir like this post

    Arkanghelsk
    Arkanghelsk


    Posts : 3871
    Points : 3877
    Join date : 2021-12-08

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:28 pm

    Russias losses are high in Avdeyevka, but Ukraine is exaggerating them as well, doubling, and even tripling them

    Ofc there are losses, this is assault, where the attacker will suffer casualties, but also the objective itself is a fortified industrial plant with defensive complexes built into the area

    The issue is, Russias officer cadres are very aggressive in their approach - that is, everyone expected maybe them to approach some of the smaller hamlets , and then to establish base of fire from those positions to the MSR

    Instead, command decided to assault the coke plant head on,  this is a trademark of the general staff, the aggression of the Russian officer is well known , and yes there are losses with this

    Although being fair, trying to circumvent a direct attack by cutting off the MSR from other points would be bloody as well, eventually you make contact with the enemy , so it is the nature of the combat

    IMO - a peace deal would only be possible if a full demilitarization happens, and I'm not sure what else Russia would want to have guarantees about it

    IMO, Russia can break the positional war that Zaluzhny writes about- its clear that Donbass is a major front, even if you look at orders of battle listed by posters here - donbass takes 150k of total troops on this sector alone

    And it is obvious, the scale of the donbass is mind boggling,  it is fortress after fortress, and there's almost no open ground

    What it means is that you must solve this area, and destroy Ukraines troops, in order to begin fast maneuver again

    The steppe is a flat ground, like the vids above show, basically behind Donbass is a flat ground, which does not offer much cover, and which armor can move without threat from missile attack

    So donbass has to be cleared, and then once 150K are freed up from these assault actions, you can enter a maneuver war again, where you can largely move large troops throughout the steppe, avoiding large cities which offer the only defensive positions for UA on the left bank

    Even with ISR data it won't matter if Ukraine knows how many soldiers are there, or that there is armor or infantry, because the open ground allows for the attacker to choose where to go and where to fight

    JohninMK and jon_deluxe like this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 11023
    Points : 11003
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 48
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Hole Sat Nov 04, 2023 4:35 pm

    Putin, as a Kremlin dove
    Tell that the terrorists in the Caucasus or Syria. O wait, they are all dead because of the "dove".

    GarryB and Belisarius like this post

    LMFS
    LMFS


    Posts : 5119
    Points : 5115
    Join date : 2018-03-03

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  LMFS Sat Nov 04, 2023 4:47 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Yes, but it would make sense if, by bringing many Ukrainian forces to Avdiivka, they made a larger breakthrough on the front in another section. However, progress on the entire front is micro.


    How on earth you keep listening to those idiots? And as to the progress of the fight, where have you been for the last 20 months? It just takes weeks and months to neutralize enough reserves of the enemy to really make a difference. We don't have the numbers, but the guys in charge do. They plan to end by 2025, until then... patience

    GarryB, franco, TMA1, Mir, jon_deluxe, Belisarius and ucmvulcan like this post

    avatar
    mnztr


    Posts : 2874
    Points : 2912
    Join date : 2018-01-21

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  mnztr Sat Nov 04, 2023 7:00 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russias losses are high in Avdeyevka, but Ukraine is exaggerating them as well, doubling, and even tripling them

    Ofc there are losses, this is assault, where the attacker will suffer casualties, but also the objective itself is a fortified industrial plant with defensive complexes built into the area

    The issue is, Russias officer cadres are very aggressive in their approach - that is, everyone expected maybe them to approach some of the smaller hamlets , and then to establish base of fire from those positions to the MSR

    Instead, command decided to assault the coke plant head on,  this is a trademark of the general staff, the aggression of the Russian officer is well known , and yes there are losses with this

    Although being fair, trying to circumvent a direct attack by cutting off the MSR from other points would be bloody as well, eventually you make contact with the enemy , so it is the nature of the combat

    IMO - a peace deal would only be possible if a full demilitarization happens, and I'm not sure what else Russia would want to have guarantees about it

    IMO, Russia can break the positional war that Zaluzhny writes about- its clear that Donbass is a major front, even if you look at orders of battle listed by posters here - donbass takes 150k of total troops on this sector alone

    And it is obvious, the scale of the donbass is mind boggling,  it is fortress after fortress, and there's almost no open ground

    What it means is that you must solve this area, and destroy Ukraines troops, in order to begin fast maneuver again

    The steppe is a flat ground, like the vids above show, basically behind Donbass is a flat ground, which does not offer much cover, and which armor can move without threat from missile attack

    So donbass has to be cleared, and then once 150K are freed up from these assault actions, you can enter a maneuver war again, where you can largely move large troops throughout the steppe, avoiding large cities which offer the only defensive positions for UA on the left bank

    Even with ISR data it won't matter if Ukraine knows how many soldiers are there, or that there is armor or infantry, because the open ground allows for the attacker to choose where to go and where to fight


    dealing with the fortresses head on is stupid and costly. just focus on cutting off resupply. If they are gonna undertake a costly operation, it should be decisive. Like closing the western border so Ukraine collapses
    Mir
    Mir


    Posts : 3644
    Points : 3644
    Join date : 2021-06-10

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Mir Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:00 pm

    Arch wrote:The steppe is a flat ground, like the vids above show, basically behind Donbass is a flat ground, which does not offer much cover, and which armor can move without threat from missile attack

    That is tank country for sure but don't disregard the value ATGM's in this environment. Flat terrain with few trees as obstacles is easy pickings for these missiles.

    GarryB, Hole and jon_deluxe like this post

    Godric
    Godric


    Posts : 800
    Points : 826
    Join date : 2015-04-30
    Location : Alba (Scotland)

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Godric Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:06 pm

    from what i've been seeing is most if not all Russian advances around Avdeyevka are by advancing via treelines and hedges along fields mostly using infantry, drones and artillery, which greatly reduces Russian casualties

    GarryB, Hole and jon_deluxe like this post

    avatar
    mnztr


    Posts : 2874
    Points : 2912
    Join date : 2018-01-21

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  mnztr Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:11 pm

    Godric wrote:from what i've been seeing is most if not all Russian advances around Avdeyevka are by advancing via treelines and hedges along fields mostly using infantry, drones and artillery, which greatly reduces Russian casualties  


    Treelines are the best, but still shitty option. The enemy will watch them like a hawk, have motars zeroed and probably mines and tripwire flares.

    Sponsored content


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50 - Page 14 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:04 am