Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

I think this guy is AFU and reviews a captured Russian Thermobaric rocket launcher (hand held). Seems quite impressed by it.

Interesting events are taking place in Ukraine:

1. Andriy Yermak is desperately trying to convince US officials to continue weapons assistance

2. Oleksandr Dubinsky has been placed under house arrest, it seems he and a group are accused of leading the charge to overthrow Zelensky

The issue is, he is being charged with corruption, as part of the Quid Pro Quo the democrats alleged on Trump, that Dubinsky was the guy providing Intel on the financial dealings between Biden and his family and the Yermak/Zelensky administration

The plot thickens, as they are begging trump now to open the spigot of military and financial assistance , which is held ransom by the Republicans in the House of Representatives

3. Zaluzhny is already tapped to replace Zelensky, but this faction supported by certain forces in the US (Biden) is now trying to discredit Zaluzhny, by leaking articles to the New York Times - which state that Zaluzhny was in effect responsible for the nord stream pipeline bombings

It's clear that within the US, Europe, and Ukraine, 2 factions have split, with Yermak, Zelensky, Biden, as the main actors in one team, and Zaluzhny, Arestovich, perhaps US Republicans on the other

Either way, if Zelensky is toppled it's likely that Ukraine wants to negotiate a surrender, and join NATO as a consolation for the territorial losses

The problem is, the Russian war economy is not being factored by the western analysts, and so they just discuss the topic as if Russia was not influential at all to the situation- and it is just seen from Ukraines eyes, either total victory, or the NATO membership

What is funny, is Russia has no intention to negotiate with either party

Russia is going to collapse Ukraine and all support for it, exactly as its doing

As Avdeevka falls, the events in Kiev will accelerate, and if he is removed, Zaluzhny will likely have to double down on Zelenskys original strategy, as Russia is in no mood to negotiate anything with Ukraine

However, Zaluzhny could be better suited to lead Ukraine from a military POV

Meaning Ukraines defenses could improve simply because a general would be leading the war

But my belief, and the belief of Russian military experts, is that Zaluzhny has no chance to mount a defense, after Donbass is captured

He can't do what Surovikin did, and dig trenches with mines, because the crucial factor lacking, is the aviation

And that will prevent them from establishing any kind of meaningful defense to stop the Russian army

mnztr wrote:
I think this guy is AFU and reviews a captured Russian Thermobaric rocket launcher (hand held). Seems quite impressed by it.

Ukraine used to produce their own thermobaric RPO Shmel copies/versions.

Anyway,

Can anyone tell me what Ukrs trying to do in Krinky???
What are these suicide missions on the left bank?

Arkanghelsk wrote:3. Zaluzhny is already tapped to replace Zelensky, but this faction supported by certain forces in the US (Biden) is now trying to discredit Zaluzhny, by leaking articles to the New York Times - which state that Zaluzhny was in effect responsible for the nord stream pipeline bombings

Zalupniy is popular, but he is even less presidential material than the clown. And now as you said, he was completely discredited with this kompromat.

Either way, if Zelensky is toppled it's likely that Ukraine wants to negotiate a surrender, and join NATO as a consolation for the territorial losses

Any sane person who cares about Ukraine would negotiate. Arestovich being a bastard, would still negotiate. But no one will topple Zele for some time.

What is funny, is Russia has no intention to negotiate with either party

Good. Not yet.

As Avdeevka falls, the events in Kiev will accelerate, and if he is removed, Zaluzhny will likely have to double down on Zelenskys original strategy, as Russia is in no mood to negotiate anything with Ukraine

It can also freeze after Avdeevka as well. Factor this in as well.

However,  Zaluzhny could be better suited to lead Ukraine from a military POV

As a president? This bandera lover wouldn't stoop so low and wouldn't beg as Zelensky does.

Meaning Ukraines defenses could improve simply because a general would be leading the war

Eh... ? If "Western partners" will ask for results, they will need to provide them. They are boxed in when it comes to "leading the war"

But my belief,  and the belief of Russian military experts, is that Zaluzhny has no chance to mount a defense, after Donbass is captured

Not sure about defense, but the offense will go out of the question

He can't do what Surovikin did, and dig trenches with mines, because the crucial factor lacking, is the aviation

They did that in Avd.

And that will prevent them from establishing any kind of meaningful defense to stop the Russian army

They can still do that. But Russia will have initiative and with enough pressure anything breaks, even fortress cities.

Regular wrote:

Zalupniy is popular, but he is even less presidential material than the clown. And now as you said, he was completely discredited with this kompromat.

I wouldn't say he is totally discredited, sure some are trying to smear him, but look at the circus of Ukrainian politics - just one NY Times article doesn't mean much, unless serious charges are leveled, and right now no such charges would stand in any court, Zaluzhny is very, very popular with Ukrainian popular opinion

It can also freeze after Avdeevka as well. Factor this in as well.

For the conflict to be frozen, Ukraine would have to defeat the Russian army, and judging by the current trajectory, it does not look good for VSU

Winter will be tough without supplies, and spring will just see a resumption of Russian offensives, as Ukraines own offensive abilities won't be rebuilt

Not sure about defense, but the offense will go out of the question

To mount a credible defense, you need several things, most important of which is aviation, without aviation, the Defense will be just like the offense

They did that in Avd.

No, Avdeevka is a fortress, the defenses are based on the tunnels, factory, and urban areas, as well as the surrounding villages which ring its rear

The surovikin line did not consist of concrete fortifications, with the exception of Dragons teeth, but most of the line was primarily a trench system dug across the front, and minefields overlapping each trench, blocking off whole sections of the frontline

The reason, that the surovikin line was not breached was because of aviation

Aviation was able to quickly immobilize attackers, and artillery finished them off

Ukraine does not have aviation like Russia, to be able to protect its own defensive trench systems it will need once Russia passes the donbass

They can still do that. But Russia will have initiative and with enough pressure anything breaks, even fortress cities.

Ukraine can basically dig in, but without airpower, they will be dislodged from their own trenches and overrun

That was the point of the counteroffensive to Crimea, but they didn't have the aviation to dislodge the Russian defenders from their own lines

In the VSU case, defending will be a worse option than always counterattacking , either way they're going to lose men, but on defense theyl just be taking the damage instead of delivering it

Instead of using storm shadow on ship factories, the bridge and civilian targets , theyl have to use them on Russian armored groups and concentrations on the front line

But this is only happening after donbass chapter

mnztr wrote:
I think this guy is AFU and reviews a captured Russian Thermobaric rocket launcher (hand held). Seems quite impressed by it.

It is a relatively new system, developed well after dissolution of the SU. As far as Ukraine gets some Metis made in Russia after 1992, this one was only delivered to the Russian armed forces around 20 years ago. Ukrs get familiar with it while being at the receiver's end.

GarryB wrote:

RShG-1 is not a new weapon... It is a family of engineer rockets.

It is a 20 y/o weapon system. Considering the realities, we can call it shiny new

we can call it shiny new

Compared to the incoming F-16s it´s a baby.

Regular wrote:

Anyway,

Can anyone tell me what Ukrs trying to do in Krinky???
What are these suicide missions on the left bank?

An usual freeak show
They will get hundreds killed to pretend how they "crossed Dnepr".

Dont know if its been reported, but the US has bought 60 Gepard vehicles from Jordan that will be deliverd to Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/13/7428574/

ALAMO wrote:An usual freeak show
They will get hundreds killed to pretend how they "crossed Dnepr".

Already hundreds dead and visually confirmed in couple of weeks. Not to mention that recently TOS, UMPK, Grom creamed these troops. You would think marines and special forces would be better used, but little to no equipment lost. Ghoulish behaviour

To be honest, "marine" or "airborne" means perfectly nothing for the Ukro Volksstuhrm at the moment.
They are all just a cannon fodder destined to get SPAMed.
Nobody trains them anymore for anything else other than how to stick a mag and dig tranches. The other is much more useful actually.
Training for the other types of warfare is quite similar. Tankers are being taught just the principals.
Check some vids how is a Rusian armored column advancing if compared to the Ukro one.
I have not seen a case when dismounted Russkie troops are being run over by running away APC, while dozens like that from the other side.
Troopers, WIAs waiting to be evacuated, no difference.
Yesterday, there was one great, how a tank tried to maneuver and hit the tree line.
It is obvious that they lack training, and I guess they don't have a time to spare training for experience - dying too fast.

I think none of these items like F-16, Abrams, Gepard, whatever, is for usage in 'counteroffensive'.
That's a finished story. Russians are breaking through, and the question NATO is asking themselves is what to do when that happens.

The idea, IMO, is to keep one region of Ukraine (West) concentrated with NATO infrastructure to make Russian attacks costly.

Russia did all of this SMO and 2014 Crimea takeover because they couldn't allow NATO on their border.
Well, over the fence it's the same. NATO can't allow Russia on Hungarian border either. If Russia tries to push, they will try to prepare just like Russians prepared for Ukrainian push.

Take a look at F-16 story. F-16 cannot launch from improvised infrastructure, it needs to be proper. Proper airfields cannot be concealed. So they need to be protected. A standard airbase is protected by both ground AA systems and its standby fighters. Ukraine is low on everything - proper airbases, AA, fighters. Hence the most logical task of F-16 if you want to keep them alive is to protect itself, adjacent AA systems and the runways and hangars from sporadic missile attacks.

In a year of time they can deploy two squads of F-16 over a few airbases. Then you always have a handful of planes on standby and can react to incoming missiles.

Same story with all other items, entrenched and spread around last footholds of NATO in Ukraine, but now they will be operated under NATO doctrine and with NATO personnel.

zare wrote:I think none of these items like F-16, Abrams, Gepard, whatever, is for usage in 'counteroffensive'.
That's a finished story. Russians are breaking through, and the question NATO is asking themselves is what to do when that happens.

The idea, IMO, is to keep one region of Ukraine (West) concentrated with NATO infrastructure to make Russian attacks costly.

Russia did all of this SMO and 2014 Crimea takeover because they couldn't allow NATO on their border.
Well, over the fence it's the same. NATO can't allow Russia on Hungarian border either. If Russia tries to push, they will try to prepare just like Russians prepared for Ukrainian push.

Take a look at F-16 story. F-16 cannot launch from improvised infrastructure, it needs to be proper. Proper airfields cannot be concealed. So they need to be protected. A standard airbase is protected by both ground AA systems and its standby fighters. Ukraine is low on everything - proper airbases, AA, fighters. Hence the most logical task of F-16 if you want to keep them alive is to protect itself, adjacent AA systems and the runways and hangars from sporadic missile attacks.

In a year of time they can deploy two squads of F-16 over a few airbases. Then you always have a handful of planes on standby and can react to incoming missiles.

Same story with all other items, entrenched and spread around last footholds of NATO in Ukraine, but now they will be operated under NATO doctrine and with NATO personnel.

I doubt that they have defence lines as strong as the once in the Donbass, which were reinforced since 2014.

Once the Donbass has fallen, the Ukrainian army will be in disarray.

Furthermore if only a couple of North western regions remain, they cannot claim anymore of being the legitimate Ukrainian state.

Finally there would be no Ukrainian soldiers left for it.

If obvious NATO soldiers will be the majority of the fighting force, this would be a real act of war against Russia. Russia could in response bomb Warsaw, Bucharest, etc,and those people know it.

US is not going to send American soldiers there (except for some "instructors" or mercenaries)

Mercenaries know now they are not fighting against some rebels in the middle east or in Africa only poorly armed. They will not want to go there.

Unless US declare war against Russia there are not many things that NATO can still do there and has not done yet. They have lost escalation possibilities.


By the way this is not the case where Syria was fighting against the terrorists in Aleppo and in the meanwhile turkey was fighting against Siria there and controlling part of the territory. Poland and Romania are not Turkey and Russia is present there.
If the fighting arrives to the north west it means that Russia there have clear and stable supply line, both from the north (Bielorussia) and from the rest of Malorossia (which by that time will be in Russian control (similar to what is the south of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions now).

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:


I doubt that they have defence lines as strong as the once in the Donbass, which were reinforced since 2014.

Once the Donbass has fallen, the Ukrainian army will be in disarray.

Furthermore if only a couple of North western regions remain, they cannot claim anymore of being the legitimate Ukrainian state.

Finally there would be no Ukrainian soldiers left for it.

Exactly,  many people do not understand why I continue to emphasize how the war will change after donbass

The only defensive system, is donbass, for people to understand, take a map, a urban one, and look at the urban density of the area

Then factor since 2014, they have reinforced the entire area, an area which is already ideal from the perspective of a defender, but which got more fortifications and defensive structures

If you draw a line, from Kharkov, down to Mariupol, that was the essence of the Ukrainian defensive system

Once this is broken, the distance between urban agglomerations,  becomes quite vast

What remains of the former system, is now a shorter line from Ugledar to Kramatorsk and then Kharkov

Behind this line You have Zaporozhye,  Dnepropetrovsk,  Poltava, Pavlograd, Kremenchuk as major urban centers, but those are hundreds of kilometers behind the donbass and essentially lie on the Dnieper

Between that, and the donbass defense system, is flat land, interspersed with rivers and villages with varying population sizes, but NONE Of the attributes which make Donbass a defensive haven

Ukraine can try to dig in, but as I reiterate,  VKS aviation will make it impossible for them to defend as the 58th did at Rabotino

Say they want to defend Pokrovsk, or some other small center, the VKS can bomb them, and the Russian army will mop up what little resistance there is left

But they don't have anymore tunnels, bunkers, factories, which are interlinked and conjoined into what Donbass is

So they will be disadvantaged from defensive scenario

They will be overrun at different parts of the lines, and you will see much more traditional maneuver on the part of the Russian army

Yes Ukraine can dig trenches and mine the approaches, but the VKS is a game changer which makes the traditional defense, like Rabotino impossible for the VSU

If Ukraine had a strong airforce, then they would not have lost so many vehicles and men, as they did in the counteroffensive

What made the difference was Russian helicopters,  flying bombs, cruise missiles,  drones, and just the sheer aerial capabilities, that allowed them to take advantage of minefields and trenches and ATGM sites

But on their own, just digging a trench, and laying mines , will not stop the Russian army for long if they do not have aviation of any kind

To better illustrate what I mean, you will see that the M-19 highway, is basically what the Ukrainian army, used to build its defensive positions

Essentially they followed the road from Kharkov to Donetsk, taking advantage of the dozens of factories, mini cities,  plants, and infrastructure to build a massive fortified complex

But take a look behind, there is nothing behind it, there is one major highway, which leads to Poltava, but which runs east-west, and then no big chain of cities or infrastructure , until the E-105 which runs from Kharkov to Zaporozhye/Melitopol

That will be the next target for the Russian army, essentially after the Donbass, a series of big arrow maneuvers, which favor the army, as the terrain is flat, and there are no large urban agglomerations to build a large defense

Zaluzhny lost the plot, he apparently wants a army of robots to defeat the Russian army, he's either been watching to much Battlestar Galactica, or smoking cocaine or Zelensky is trying to make him look insane

@charly0153
shows Russian advances to the north, northwest and southeast of the city. The bottleneck would be around 3.8 km. A few days ago it was at 9 km.

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:@charly0153
shows Russian advances to the north, northwest and southeast of the city. The bottleneck would be around 3.8 km. A few days ago it was at 9 km.

@MT_Anderson
BSF: NOVOROSSIYSK
0.5M from 12 Nov 2023. Novo appears to still be the center of the BSF. Both Grigorovich Class, 2x 22160 & all 4 KILOs are in port + various other MCM and Amphibious vessels. All Pr. 21631 (Buyan-M) KALIBR shooters are out of port.

https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1724508181722726623