Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

kvs wrote:Russia has nothing to learn from any variant of the F-16.   Even the F-22 is only a "nice to have".   Getting access to the opponent's
weapons systems is best during war time and not years before any war.   This way there is no time for any modification as the USSR
conducted after the Mig-31 was stolen by a defector.    Russian military technology is not bottom tier where it needs to grab hardware
to reverse engineer it like a certain other country, which is not able to recreate fully the equipment it gets.  

The Ukr defector's main contribution is that the Kiev regime has one less pilot which is a big deal.  

From the airframe, absolutely nothing, it was studied ages ago. But com systems and some electronics would be nice to peak at. 

Anyways, I doubt that Russians will have chance to lay eyes on F-16, unless they fish them out of Black Sea

It seems that calls are growing louder for a retreat of the Ukrainian armed forces behind Kupyansk, and to pull back their troops from Chasov Yar, Toretsk, and New York back to the Slavyansk-Konstantinovka-Kramatorsk line

It seems that they are increasingly worried about the possibility that Russia will penetrate their defenses and cut off a huge amount of their troops

They know if they let their lines get broken, they might not be able to establish a new defensive line

So they probably will be retreating this winter from current positions across the front line from Avdeevka to Kupyansk

We know western officials wanted this withdrawal sooner, to commit more troops to a counteroffensive in Zaporozhye

It seems this will be what they must do, and listen, this is exactly why Shoigu mentions 2025 as the end of the SMO

If this happens, Russia will take Kramatorsk and Slavyansk perhaps by end of 2024

By then until 2025, once this final line is broken, all bets are off, if the Russian army breaks their final defense line and moves basically unopposed through the steppe

It is possible Biden could opt for an intervention in western Ukraine, to save his election chances and what little he can of his investments in Kiev

These will be developments to look for in 2024, as presidential elections for both Putin and Biden loom

But in the near term, it sounds increasingly like the Ukrainians understand the need to re-establish a defensive line, as the current one is giving way in too many directions

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:

What are you muttering about ? He flies in a Boeing because China cant produce their own aircraft or engines.

yes, she can' produce a plane of this class, & that was my point!

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799

They are already producing the Y-20 (IL-76 derivative) so they can already manufacture large and complex aerostructures and engines. Of course they are still inferior to western engines, but its easy for them to dismantle a Western engine, and western planes and learn from them. The material sciences are probably the most difficult. They can write software to mimic airbus flight control logic a its all documented. Catching up is always much easier then inventing.

The production rate is about 12-20 per year. That's 1 to 1.5 or higher per month. For an aircraft that weighs 100 tons and more, very considerable. Mind you, the IL-76MD-PS90A is only manufactured in Russia with 4 to 6 per year. In addition, there is the WS-20 engine. This is a great step forward.

Russia should beware of giving more technologies to China. Trusting China can end more dangerously than trusting the West for years. If Russia does not manufacture everything from the smallest screw to the final product itself, it will never really be free. History shows that. The country is big enough for 200 million inhabitants. It must finally be learned, quickly and without compromise, that everything from a single source means only success for the country.

If they are partners, then those who do not commit treason must be. This is Iran. A deeper and closer partnership should be established with this country as soon as possible.

And it should finally be clear that negotiations with the West are only one thing: For the garbage! Every pause, every ceasefire is only used to attack again later, as in Syria, worse and more cruelly! No buffer zone, no rest Ukraine, nothing! Face to face with NATO! Up to their limits and then finally peace is here!

Russia is big enough for 4-500 m people easily .But 1. Low birth rate. 2. No desire to encourage immigrants (to put it lighty) 3. Substantial emigration. These put Russia at risk and hinder its ability to be fully self contained.

Regular wrote:

kvs wrote:Russia has nothing to learn from any variant of the F-16.   Even the F-22 is only a "nice to have".   Getting access to the opponent's
weapons systems is best during war time and not years before any war.   This way there is no time for any modification as the USSR
conducted after the Mig-31 was stolen by a defector.    Russian military technology is not bottom tier where it needs to grab hardware
to reverse engineer it like a certain other country, which is not able to recreate fully the equipment it gets.  

The Ukr defector's main contribution is that the Kiev regime has one less pilot which is a big deal.  

From the airframe, absolutely nothing, it was studied ages ago. But com systems and some electronics would be nice to peak at. 

Anyways, I doubt that Russians will have chance to lay eyes on F-16, unless they fish them out of Black Sea

No need to fish anything out of Black Sea.
Russia has fully examined the F-16 long time ago....in the tropical climate of Venezuela.

This is the LPR-4 laser designator from MAKS and installed on a T90M

Does anyone know how come we don't see these utilized more often across the front?

Perhaps the targeting system needed to cue laser guided systems is not developed enough?

You would think front line units, using these basic designator devices could just light up Ukrainian units

Su24 , su25, su30, su34 could all launch KH38, Kh25, kh29 which certain variants can strike from 60km range

This would give a much more accurate close air support to units which are in close contact with enemy

Especially in Avdeevka, or in general along the front line

Low flying close air support aircraft could fly below radar horizon and just use cueing from the laser designator on the ground to target roving Ukrainians

Lancet is a great tool, but in situations where troops are ambushed, or run into unexpected forces, this would give unprecedented advantage

Which raises questions about the usage of SSO and spetsnaz GRU units which are trained to use these devices

And I don't believe they don't use them because of air defense, they use unguided rockets which have a much shorter range then missiles with laser targeting ability

So there aircraft are close to the front line anyway

That flight commander probably could not send more men to almost certain death. imagine training your men, then sending them out and then they never come back, again and again.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Does anyone know how come we don't see these utilized more often across the front?

Opsec. Russians don't want the West or their banderite minions to know what they are doing.

Dunno about you but I am content to let the professionals do their thing and not assume the worse simply because, unlike the Kiev nazi regime, the Russians don't believe in showing everything they do or intend to do on FB channels 24/7.

Backman wrote:
In a way, I don't think China is as Machiavellian as everyone thinks. They are just trying to get along with everyone. I just think they are very naive about the US.  

No, I think that China were naive to the true attitudes and motivations of the US and its Western satraps, but they have been watching intently how the US/EU conducts its affairs and the spectacle of how the US/EU so insistently worked to expand NATO to Ukraine and to attack Russia for its inevitable response has opened up those few remaining eyes in Beijing who may have still believed in the twin myths of US benevolence and ominpotence.  Add to that the counter-productive (and self-harming) US meddling in Taiwan and Hong Kong, the naval Pivot to Asia, the blatantly false allegations of human rights abuses (even "genocide") in Xinjiang, and its ham-fisted attempt at crippling Chinas economic and technical progress thru sanctions (illegal under WTO rules).  These practises have simply accelerated the awakening process of the Chinese ruling class elites.

IMHO Beijing has ceased any pretense of accepting the Murkan agitprop bullshit. China knows fully that if the US could somehow succeed in bringing Russia to her knees then China will lose a vital partner, lose her access to essential Russian energy and raw materials, lose an increasingly important export-market, lose her strategic defense in depth along her northern border, and that it would only be a matter of time before the Empire gets around to doing the same thing to them.

The Chinese are cagey customers and practise diplomacy as though its 3D chess game. Xi went to the US to meet with Crash Test Dummy only as a formality, and maybe one final hope to talk some sense into the stupid arrogant fools who are currently in executive control of the US ruling elite.  Judging by the creepy hair-sniffer doubling down on his "XI is a dictator" nonsense, i think its fair to say the Chinese consider the idea of talking to the Biden Admin to be a fools errand and they will now solidify their line and wait to see what happens in Nov 2024.

Godric wrote:reports coming in from the front lines the number of dead Ukrainian female combat troops is rapidly rising

Good. Less spawn points will be available for replacement banderites.

Big_Gazza wrote:

Godric wrote:reports coming in from the front lines the number of dead Ukrainian female combat troops is rapidly rising

Good.  Less spawn points will be available for replacement banderites.

Mediazona reports close to 400k obituaries at the moment.
Applying the math they are so happily using for the Russkie casualties, it ends up with 600k. Just as Apti said two days ago.

No matter is we will move a 50k left or right the scale, it means a general combined casualty ratio of around 2 mln men.
Out of some 20+ mln population, with already spoiled social structure ratios.

which had resisted since 2014

For most of the time there was not much fighting going on there.
As soon as they met a professional force the "defenders" went belly up.

GarryB wrote:

They are already producing the Y-20 (IL-76 derivative) so they can already manufacture large and complex aerostructures and engines.

A transport plane is not really a large civilian airliner designed for efficiency and comfort.... which is not to say a transport plane is nothing.

The Y-20 is practically an enlarged An-70 with jet engines and with some other solutions copied from the American  C-17. Furthermore it was mainly designed by Antonov engineers.

Good anyway for China that they have mastered production.

As far as their civilian aircraft industry, they already produce a lot of small parts for Boeing and Airbus airplanes and for western engines (to the point that some of the previous suppliers in the west could not compete anymore, so it will cost a lot to get back to a China free supply chain).

However their actual airplanes are not innovative.
The ARJ-21 regional jet is at least one generation older than the SSJ100, and it is a sort of MD-80 copy with an Antonov designed wing.

The c919 is also nothing extraordinary but it is an interesting step into producing a "modern" civil airliner (which again has most of western components).

It cannot be compared with the MC21.

Anyway China is not as bad as someone depicts it, nor it is as good as someone else says. They are quite good in manufacturing, now also in other areas (cars, shipbuilding, etc and of course in electronics) and they have partially overcome their previous limits of cheap but bad.

However I rarely see real innovation.

Furthermore a lot of their improvement came from the west giving them technologies, design and manufacturing capabilities because they thought only about sparing a few pennies in production.

Even Italy started a few cooperation programs with them (like with former fiat avio). The interesting bit there is that when GE bought Avio a few years later they interrupted abruptly that partnership, basically before the Italian part could get benefits from it, but after having transferred a lot of technology and know how to China.

Add to that what they got from soviet union and their successors (most of their fighter and transport aircraft technologies with even the 5th generation fighters that stam from them, naval destroyers, aircraft carriers, etc) and you can see that in the last 30 years they have been helped "a lot" to get to their current point.

Of course there has been also quite a bit of stealing and intelligence work (but also America does it with their "partners").

I do not believe they will be able to continue improving exponentially like till now or that they will be able to cheaply and easily acquire the expensive technologies developed by other nations.
They tried to do it also with CR929, where Russia did not have to gain any new technology but China wanted technology transfer for modern wings and engines.

A lot of countries both in the west and in the east benefited by the fall of Soviet union and those idiot leaders allowed that to happen. If any one of those important technology developments would have been sold at their real value (and if shitty "oligarchs" did not stole that much) there would not have been such poverty in the 90s.

Note: I do not know exactly how resilient is the political system in China, and I see sometimes some atrocities that reminds me to those from George Orwell's 1984 (similar to how is going in some western countries, especially, but not only UK, Canada and Australia) but I do not believe it can last forever.

Furthermore China is extremely codependent with the west and especially for US (Russia had some smaller problems of being dependent from the west in 2007 but now most of those issue ls have been gradually solved).
Should US political and industrial system go belly up, the consequences for China will be massive.

Not to speak about their demographic problems.

As far as Russia they have some issues with demographics as well, they should try to incentivate again a child policy and maybe guarantee cheap lands and houses for families with at least 3 kids.
They will have anyway a lot of new lands soon, and they cannot let only a population that has been brainwashed for many years by an antirussian regime (including all of those pre colored revolution) live there, also because many will not return from the west or from Poland (creating additional problems for those nations).

Furthermore Russia could propose a safe space for the westerners who are not antirussian and cannot tollerate anymore some of the depravity imposed by their regime's (of course not putting all of them in the same area, especially if it is a newly liberated one near the west, as that would be a recipe for disaster).

P.S.
Basically Ukraine contributed a lot to the aerospace and missile technology development of China and North Korea and sold for cheap a lot of Soviet secrets.

Brothers in arms:





YES!

It´s not a plane...

The vid with LMUR was quite interesting, as revealed the flight profile. Missile gains altitude quite rapidly after release. I wonder if the 15 km range is not a limitation of on board Mi-28 systems rather than energetic characteristics of the Izd. 305 itself.

And for chill Sunday evening, a few drones ready to go spread the word of Lord

mnztr wrote:

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:

What are you muttering about ? He flies in a Boeing because China cant produce their own aircraft or engines.

yes, she can' produce a plane of this class, & that was my point!

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799

They are n write software to mimic airbus flight control logic a its all documented. Catching up is always much easier then inventing.

The production rate is about 12-20 per year. That's 1 to 1.5 or higher per month. For an aircraft that weighs 100 tons and more, very considerable. Mind you, the IL-76MD-PS90A is only manufactured in Russia with 4 to 6 per year. In addition, there is the WS-20 engine. This is a great step forward.

Russia should beware of giving more technologies to China. everything from a single source means only success for the country.

If they are partners, then those who do not commit treason must be. he garbage! Every pause, every ceasefire is only used to attack again later, as in Syria, worse and more cruelly! No buffer zone, no rest Ukraine, nothing! Face to face with NATO! Up to their limits and then finally peace is here!

Russia is big enough for 4-500 m people easily .But 1. Low birth rate. 2. No desire to encourage immigrants (to put it lighty) 3. Substantial emigration. These put Russia at risk and hinder its ability to be fully self contained.

Russia doesn't have a low birth rate. It is at the European average. If it's average , it isn't low. Japan is what you call a low birth rate.

Russia is the 2nd most immigrated to country after the US.

Backman wrote:

Russia is big enough for 4-500 m people easily .But 1. Low birth rate. 2. No desire to encourage immigrants (to put it lighty) 3. Substantial emigration. These put Russia at risk and hinder its ability to be fully self contained.

Russia doesn't have a low birth rate. It is at the European average. If it's average , it isn't low. Japan is what you call a low birth rate.

Russia is the 2nd most immigrated to country after the US.[/quote]

Those are just the same propaganda hashtags created for universal use.
"low birth rate" ... Poland has a much lower birth rate than Russia.
Ever heard of it as a disturbing factor?
Plus for the last 10 years, Russia has expanded incorporating new citizens, and heading steadily for 150+ mln.

The LPR4 is a binocular with laser that is invisible, and uses pulse repetition frequency, so the laser bounces off the target, and the optic on the KH38/25/29 picks it up and homes in on target

What I am saying is, even if it's not specifically installed on a tank

You would think that a Russian DRG or recon team would have these with them, so that if they get ambushed or caught by enemy

One of them can quickly use the designator to identify Ukrainians to the Russian airforce

Then any aircraft with laser guided weapons could get in the air to give help to the DRG or recon team

It would lower the amount of troops killed in ambushes and also it would also have worked in Kharkov, when the Russian lines were thin and the Ukrainians overwhelmed the BARS units

If these had been with them, they just could have lazed those Ukrainians that were driving fast around the flanks,  and airpower could have fucked them up

I understand they have Lancet, LMUR, Iskander and all that, but those are for certain circumstances

In this case, laser guided weapons with a designator on the ground is probably the most accurate and effective tool to rebuff an ambush at a small scale

So not like rabotino, where they used FAB and Lancet and LMUR because it was target rich, but more like Kharkov where a team is being overwhelmed and needs precise firepower on a moments notice

Laser guided weaponry can't be jammed, and spoofing is difficult is you don't know you are being targeted or don't have MAWS, the only drawback is weather, but at night and during clear conditions, i would think this would save more lives

[quote="Backman"][quote="mnztr"][quote="Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E"][quote="mnztr"][quote="Tsavo Lion"][quote] etc

Are you really so lazy that you risk Garry pulling the 'Quote' function as he has threatened?