GarryB wrote: They are already producing the Y-20 (IL-76 derivative) so they can already manufacture large and complex aerostructures and engines.
A transport plane is not really a large civilian airliner designed for efficiency and comfort.... which is not to say a transport plane is nothing.
The Y-20 is practically an enlarged An-70 with jet engines and with some other solutions copied from the American C-17. Furthermore it was mainly designed by Antonov engineers.
Good anyway for China that they have mastered production.
As far as their civilian aircraft industry, they already produce a lot of small parts for Boeing and Airbus airplanes and for western engines (to the point that some of the previous suppliers in the west could not compete anymore, so it will cost a lot to get back to a China free supply chain).
However their actual airplanes are not innovative.
The ARJ-21 regional jet is at least one generation older than the SSJ100, and it is a sort of MD-80 copy with an Antonov designed wing.
The c919 is also nothing extraordinary but it is an interesting step into producing a "modern" civil airliner (which again has most of western components).
It cannot be compared with the MC21.
Anyway China is not as bad as someone depicts it, nor it is as good as someone else says. They are quite good in manufacturing, now also in other areas (cars, shipbuilding, etc and of course in electronics) and they have partially overcome their previous limits of cheap but bad.
However I rarely see real innovation.
Furthermore a lot of their improvement came from the west giving them technologies, design and manufacturing capabilities because they thought only about sparing a few pennies in production.
Even Italy started a few cooperation programs with them (like with former fiat avio). The interesting bit there is that when GE bought Avio a few years later they interrupted abruptly that partnership, basically before the Italian part could get benefits from it, but after having transferred a lot of technology and know how to China.
Add to that what they got from soviet union and their successors (most of their fighter and transport aircraft technologies with even the 5th generation fighters that stam from them, naval destroyers, aircraft carriers, etc) and you can see that in the last 30 years they have been helped "a lot" to get to their current point.
Of course there has been also quite a bit of stealing and intelligence work (but also America does it with their "partners").
I do not believe they will be able to continue improving exponentially like till now or that they will be able to cheaply and easily acquire the expensive technologies developed by other nations.
They tried to do it also with CR929, where Russia did not have to gain any new technology but China wanted technology transfer for modern wings and engines.
A lot of countries both in the west and in the east benefited by the fall of Soviet union and those idiot leaders allowed that to happen. If any one of those important technology developments would have been sold at their real value (and if shitty "oligarchs" did not stole that much) there would not have been such poverty in the 90s.
Note: I do not know exactly how resilient is the political system in China, and I see sometimes some atrocities that reminds me to those from George Orwell's 1984 (similar to how is going in some western countries, especially, but not only UK, Canada and Australia) but I do not believe it can last forever.
Furthermore China is extremely codependent with the west and especially for US (Russia had some smaller problems of being dependent from the west in 2007 but now most of those issue ls have been gradually solved).
Should US political and industrial system go belly up, the consequences for China will be massive.
Not to speak about their demographic problems.
As far as Russia they have some issues with demographics as well, they should try to incentivate again a child policy and maybe guarantee cheap lands and houses for families with at least 3 kids.
They will have anyway a lot of new lands soon, and they cannot let only a population that has been brainwashed for many years by an antirussian regime (including all of those pre colored revolution) live there, also because many will not return from the west or from Poland (creating additional problems for those nations).
Furthermore Russia could propose a safe space for the westerners who are not antirussian and cannot tollerate anymore some of the depravity imposed by their regime's (of course not putting all of them in the same area, especially if it is a newly liberated one near the west, as that would be a recipe for disaster).
P.S.
Basically Ukraine contributed a lot to the aerospace and missile technology development of China and North Korea and sold for cheap a lot of Soviet secrets.
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