Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

Arkanghelsk wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I was asking, whats your source the Russians plan to use these units to launch the assaults you speak off not their existence

So you no concrete info they will and are speculating which is fine, but speculation and fact are separate

There are many from Vzglyad to Marat Khairulin, who has access to military intelligence which is peppered throughout his posts



This is the first map which detailed the breakthrough plans of several army corps


Marat Khairulin is the journalist that is most trusted to break news on troops concentrations, active offensives, and areas of success

He is not limited by bureaucracy like the MOD, and breaks the news very fast

That's where most of English pro russian media gets their own information from - frontline journalists or Voenkors

In addition, I would add, Marat has said the number one thing currently delaying assault groups is Ukrainian FPV drones which have stymied advanced in Avdeevka and in Kherson

Russian troops have resorted to such dummy tactics to deceive operators , but it is not a panacea:





So far it is the , not sexy, and boring detail which is actually responsible for negating advances of RU troops

The FPV drone threat is underreported, but it is the number one source of casualties for troops

Mines knock out armor, and then FPVs appear to take out infantry, reducing combat effectiveness of assault units greatly

This is due to lack of standard EW at a small scale, as Volnorez jammers are still too few and far between, and Lesochek jammers are not too effective, as they are directional and do not blanket the EW spectrum to disable FPV across a wide front:






The MOD must focus on this area, as simply producing armor will not help change the situation, as the loss rate will remain the same

Sure, Russia by sheer overwhelming superiority can win, but will take many more casualties doing so in this way

It's better to smooth out the production and introduction of EW jammers at squad level, to enable more successful assault actions without the current attrition levels

Although I imagine by the time large scale assault operation commence, it is these developments which will be ready at least in some number

Russia has done good to innovate and adapt to technology where it is required

I might also add: the S-8 laser guided rocket will be part of the new assault tactics

As apparently the introduction of new drones for attacking actions with these rockets will make it so the advantage of KA52 can be replicated throughout the front, and not just in the most important zones of combat

FPV drones are probably best taken out by other drones. Another solution for short term FPV defence is to pop smoke, and eliminate visibiliity until their batteries run down.

I would suggest to watch more FPV footage if it wasn’t so gruesome.

FPV drones have very short airtime so time of “interception” is few minutes. It can’t be “counter droned” and smoke screen wouldn’t work as for vehicles FPVs are invisible and almost impossible to evade for infantry.

Best counter is EW. Both sides are able to access video feed of drones as most are analogue and then they try to jam telemetry, causing drone to fall. EW devices do blanket jamming, but targetted can be done by EW teams. If you hear drone buzzing, then pray for windy weather and bad pilot, it means it went past EW blanket. That’s how it works today. So far, kinetic measures are good against Baba Yaga and recon drones only

This is the most important thing right now

Ukrainians are producing their own FPV - there won't be shortages here

Once a jammer blocks out a channel, the Ukrainians are switching frequencies and then they have to track down the new frequency to jam it

The problem is with large jammers like borisoglebsk, moskva, krasukha, this will negate the Russian army from being able to use its own drones as the entire spectrum of frequencies is blocked in any band, as that is what those systems are designed for, high power jamming

It's much more difficult to selectively jam frequencies, and not only, but to detect which frequencies the Ukrainians are using

So far there is no standard approach, and each squad is coping (no pun intended) as they can

For example some squads are seen with these :




These are aftermarket Chinese pieces, but there are reports of Russian manufactured ones, however, not in sufficient volume to implement a standardized SOP for each squad or armored vehicles

I think Volnorez is the answer, as it is lower powered then large systems, allowing Russian drones to keep flying, but has enough coverage to negate Ukro swarms from pelting assault squads

This will be something to be straightened out, but Russia will do it, as it has shown repeatedly capable of adapting to any challenges it faces

Hopefully it can be tested in this phase before commencing large scale thrusts, it will save the lives of many servicemen

@archangelsk, my friend, you are bit behind all of this by months if not more.

Not your fault, specialised drone groups are now private and evolution if something that even researchers can’t keep up. All expedited by darwinism…

“ Ukrainians are producing their own FPV - there won't be shortages here”

Incorrect about shortages. Listen what Sternenko and Madyar say. They are bottlenecked now and will feel draught soon. Chinese exports cannot be easily accessed to them, unlike Ru Gov contracts and private purchases.


“Once a jammer blocks out a channel, the Ukrainians are switching frequencies and then they have to track down the new frequency to jam it“

They block ranges of frequencies, not one channel. By the time they change anything, they will be out of action or loosing drones. There are more to this of course, but jammers can switch channels quicker than drones that can fall down the sky if telemetry is interrupted for a mere second. Frequency analysers are game changers here. You see what channels ukrs use kilometres away.

“It's much more difficult to selectively jam frequencies, and not only, but to detect which frequencies the Ukrainians are using”
You are completely wrong with this. By 5-6 months.

“ So far there is no standard approach, and each squad is coping (no pun intended) as they can”
Job for EW teams is changing daily, infantry and armour has to eat FPVs, but this can be minimised.

“ I think Volnorez is the answer”

There are more answers. Main thing is not to let enemy take over and it can happen in months if something is overlooked. Fighting drones is multi approach issue and EW units seem to be more active, closer to line of contact and imbedded into frontline troops. Russia so far dominate in

Drones with thermal cameras
FPV teams
Drone drops
Training
Supply

Ukraine leads when it comes to shielded/encrypted communications, more advanced antennas, large agro drones (Baba Yagas) but this will be attrited soon.

Anyway, Happy New Year all

Geraniums are heading towards Lvov.

Explosions are reported in Vinnitsa and Ternopol region.

Guys guys guys, check these two projects of UA casualty counting. So far 40k confirmed dead with their names. Look how many CONFIRMED soldiers they lost during their counteroffensive…


https://x.com/tatostavsnikers/status/1740838080704106546?s=46

https://x.com/lossesua/status/1741532003147653467?s=46

pavi wrote:....
Sometimes one must be ready to wait. Leningrad was surrounded 900 days and did not fall. Only viable supply route was through the ice of lake Lagoda at winter time. It is not that simple, Papa.

That's why I said to actually surround the city

Nothing comes in, stuff can only come out, simple

Kharkov is not the same thing as Leningrad, Russians aren't trying to exterminate it

Plus just cutting off the internet would be enough to get the locals to flip unlike Leningrad

VARGR198 wrote:

https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1741376755716292954

The walkie talkie should have an explosive in it. If they refuse. Kaboom/

Regular wrote:Guys guys guys, check these two projects of UA casualty counting. So far 40k confirmed dead with their names. Look how many CONFIRMED soldiers they lost during their counteroffensive…


https://x.com/tatostavsnikers/status/1740838080704106546?s=46

https://x.com/lossesua/status/1741532003147653467?s=46

I searched the site they provided. From 1st August 2023 to present day. 6556 dead is what they claim which is ridiculously low. However, in fairness to them, they do claim that:

"All names included in the list are sourced. As only data that is available online is considered, the real level of losses is estimated to be considerably higher. In particular, available data is scarce for large cities, Transcarpathia, and most localities in the east and south; as a result, the casualties listed here are likely only a fraction of the real toll."

They claim 40,010 dead since the start of the SMO. As a fraction what could that mean? 10%? If so remember these are just deaths. How many were wounded, MIA, etc...

Could even be north of 2 million casualties at this point. We would never know. How bad will it get when their paymasters in the West abandon them?

Seed territory ? Or is it cede territory ? The same thing , I think . So according to some , if Ukraine looses some battles in some region , THEN they will consider ceding territory to Russia ? But if indications are that they ARE loosing battles , then why wait and waste lives ? Some said Kharkiv is Russian speaking , and surrounding territory is Ukrainian speaking ? Or was it the other way round ? I don't know , not my country . But sure that some here know . Looks like not all Ukrs Brass is completely mad !

Then what to do with territorial division ? Pockets of Russian speakers caught in a Sea of Ukrainian populations ? And vice versa ? An agreement based on the least movement of populations , to allow for homogeneous areas , should be worked out . An interesting math / computer problem . Both sides can use same algorithm . Pressing computer keyboard less painful than pressing trigger on Rifle .

What percentage of Ukrainians will want to relocate to the Rump State Ukraine? Surely only the most extreme and those that know they wil be picked up for crimes. The ones that don't like Russia and aren't really Urkainian nationalists are already in Western Europe, they won't be back. Who would want to live in a destroyed backwater? Those that have roots and community links and do not hate Russia may be back or will stay. Especially those that fled to Russia and those that have strong familial ties in Russia.

Its possible Russia had spies all over that hotel and it was a great source of intel. But the decided the attack in belgrod indicated the intel had been compromised so kill the mofos.

JohninMK wrote:Death toll now 24.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
.
2h
A strike on the former Kharkov Palace complex killed representatives of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Armed Forces of Ukraine who took part in the planning and execution of the terrorist attack in Belgorod, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported.

There were also up to 200 mercenaries there, who were planned to be involved in terrorist raids on the territory bordering Ukraine. - FRWL reports

Deputy of the State Duma of Russia Sergei Markov:

Britain dealt a blow to Belgorod.  This was officially stated by the Russian Foreign Ministry.
In response, Russia has now struck a hotel in Kharkov, where British officers, who were preparing an attack on Belgorod, live.  Let me explain once again - Kharkov residents do not live in hotels in Kharkov.  The foreigners there are military.  That's the blow to them.  Not for Kharkov residents.  Kharkiv residents are future citizens of Russia.
But everyone has a question: why weren’t they hitting this lair in Kharkov before?  Were you waiting for them to hit Russian children?  

https://t.me/vicktop55/1977

Pincus Shain wrote:

I searched the site they provided. From 1st August 2023 to present day. 6556 dead is what they claim which is ridiculously low. However, in fairness to them, they do claim that:

"All names included in the list are sourced. As only data that is available online is considered, the real level of losses is estimated to be considerably higher. In particular, available data is scarce for large cities, Transcarpathia, and most localities in the east and south; as a result, the casualties listed here are likely only a fraction of the real toll."

They claim 40,010 dead since the start of the SMO. As a fraction what could that mean? 10%? If so remember these are just deaths. How many were wounded, MIA, etc...

Could even be north of 2 million casualties at this point. We would never know. How bad will it get when their paymasters in the West abandon them?

Project authors are very aware about the limitations, but such tools help to capture general trends, even mass casualty events that would coincide with rear strikes and we would know nothing about. Also, age groups and killed by unit is also useful. It gives better image to unit markings on the map as we see the ones getting turn into paste and now can put names on them. To see how fast they are depleted. It’s not something Ukrainians would want public to know, so my bet, they will be hacking it constantly.

Just and example, we might see some uptick from recent Russian strikes and we could put name on what units got punished. OG3 project is focusing on killed COs and this is even better indicator when it comes to HQ/rear strikes. All in all, it’s becoming very visible and hard to hide.


Also, present from New Year party

Damaged/Destroyed HIMARS, finally captured on camera

https://x.com/drazam33/status/1741781959485853741?s=46

I never said anyone here said the goal wasn't to capture territory. I don't think anyone here is that stupid. However, it is an oft-repeated statement on Twitter.

I don't think statements on X really effect V or Z.

Let X say what it is allowed to say by those in charge of it, but don't think any of it means anything important for Russia because X is the west and does not have Russias interests at heart... it doesn't even have the wests interests at heart, it has the interests of 0.1% of the wests population at heart.

A 1,000 km buffer isn't necessary to prevent 90% of attacks on civilians. They have killed 4,000 civilians in Donetsk through artillery and MLRS attacks. A 200km buffer inside Ukraine the entire length of the Russian border is sufficient, though the Dnipro is a more natural boundary.

As the west escalates with the assistance they give Kiev in terms of long range air launched weapons like Storm Shadow and ATACMS, the safety range of the borders needs to be reassessed. Just like the force structure and armament of Russian troops on the Finland border is being reassessed by Russia too.

Sometimes one must be ready to wait. Leningrad was surrounded 900 days and did not fall. Only viable supply route was through the ice of lake Lagoda at winter time. It is not that simple, Papa.

Have to agree because the hardships imposed by the Germans made the people of Leningrad harder and tougher, but they also took horrific losses.

Could Ukrainians be that strong?

Of course they could... but have they been that strong so far? Not really. They folded like little bitches when their leaders told them to ignore large parts of their history and turn on their neighbours... maybe there is an element of wanting to punish them in this too.

You shelled and laid siege to your own people in Donbass and Lugansk for 8 years and ignored their suffering... that is Kiev and the west did... we are now only three years in to Russia doing the same to you... in fact the death toll is very low in terms of civilians compared with your record with your own people.

if the germans had been able to cut off that one supply route the city would have fallen, it was because they failed to it never did

True, but the resources needed to cut that supply line would have effected their progress in other areas of Russia that they could not spare and would have stalled progress in more important places. Kiev fell multiple times, taking a Russian city did not really mean much... they were making their own weapons and ammo in that city.

But everyone has a question: why weren’t they hitting this lair in Kharkov before? Were you waiting for them to hit Russian children?

If they had just kept trying to hit military targets their existence would be acceptable, but murdering civilians and children made them a terrorist threat that was a much higher priority to eliminate than a group of leaders that were incompetent and not running their military campaign well at all... leading to serious losses of their own troops and making things easier for the Russian military to achieve their goals.

If they had left civilians alone they would still be alive and screwing up their military campaign right now.

Interesting that the UKs brightest and best resort to murdering civilians in frustration at not being able to hit genuinely military targets... is HATO proving itself to be the terrorist organisation we all believed it to be?

Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after Russian drone operators threw them a walkie-talkie and conducted negotiations near Verbovoye (Zaporozhye).

How many American drone operators would drop communications devices to Iraqis or Afghans and offer them a chance to surrender rather than just bomb them with grenades 24/7?

The Russians showing humanity in war... something the Germans and Americans never did for them.

Because killing 600.000+ enemy fighters or preparing to return all russian cities
in Banderaland under russian control isn´t a response

The western expression is not seeing the wood for the trees.

Defeating Kiev and HATO is the best response of all for anything they do to Russia... and all the information and Tiktok videos and internet posts will be collected and used in evidence after this is all over to make sure the blame goes where it needs to go.

Western cruise missiles are not big enough to accomodate flares and chaffs.

They never thought it was needed before... they just launch more missiles, despite them being more expensive than Russian missiles.

It means more profit.

The walkie talkie should have an explosive in it. If they refuse. Kaboom/

They were dropping grenades on them already... I bet they were surprised when the walkie talkie didn't go boom.

Western drone operators would never make such an offer.

Its possible Russia had spies all over that hotel and it was a great source of intel. But the decided the attack in belgrod indicated the intel had been compromised so kill the mofos.

While they are making in competent decisions that lead to heavy losses to Orc forces on the battlefield they would not be wanting to kill these people, but when they start deciding terror attacks on civilians (like western strategic bombing of Germany for instance) then it becomes worth while to take them down.

It is Banderas birthday today

Nice gift.
But his monument is still standing. Someone should donate a missile /drone for that.

Completely agree, Russian MOD need to hire new people or let interns run the show


https://x.com/gammonbadge?s=21

India selling 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine

This topic will reach the #500 by the way things are going (from both sides I mean). Expect millions of deaths in the meantime. The arms production from both sides will keep increasing. That's how things look as of today.

Pacense wrote:This topic will reach the #500 by the way things are going (from both sides I mean). Expect millions of deaths in the meantime. The arms production from both sides will keep increasing. That's how things look as of today.

Well like I said months ago, they should bite the bullet and close the western border. the fact that railway lines to the west are not hit daily with double tap hit to kill repair crew just boggles my mind

ALAMO wrote:It seems we are facing one of the most intense strikes ever, with confirmed 90 Gerans used on the New Years Eve.
The previous record was Nov 25th, when 75 were used.
The selected targets are quite interesting either.

In Lvov area, a museum dedicated to Schuchevych was demolished.

https://i.servimg.com/u/f12/20/35/00/30/photo275.jpg

The second was the university in Dublyany, where Bandera was studying an age ago. It is Banderas birthday today  

https://i.servimg.com/u/f12/20/35/00/30/photo277.jpg

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/108145

Some Kalibrs have been reported, too.
Air raid alarm sounds all over 404 at the moment.

Merry Christmas you filthy animals!!!      

Tolstoy wrote:India selling 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine

https://x.com/CToast99/status/1741687819989401609?s=20

As long as they aren't donating them to Ukraine or blocking Russia from buying them should they ask it's a valid play