For the same expenditure of force ( the total integrated force over time ) we would expect the same advance or retreat ( the total integrated area of operations over time ) and the same rate of attrition ( the total integrated losses over time ) . The only difference being perhaps the changing rate , one of increasing or decreasing amplitude or undamped system , where energy supplied equals energy lost ( more like what I am suggesting ) . Interesting problem !
I disagree. If Kiev was able to get all ifs forces together and start mounting their attack on the Donbas and Lugansk regions there is no way Russia would be able to mobilise and attack and wipe out their air power and navy by surprise like that... the orcs would have the initiative and the numbers and the momentum and Russia would have taken heavy losses stopping them. More importantly there would be no prong of attack towards Kiev to keep Kievs forces spread out, they could have concentrated all their attacking power on the Donbass and probable would have made some ground, while the light small force of Russian unit would not have been enough to stop that steam roller and all those Russan forces would have had to go to the Donbass where they would have been vulnerable to artillery fire just like any other soldier and taken casualties like any other soldier.
They would have kept taking losses as they stripped the enemy of air power and navy and armour, but their airstrikes would not have been a surprise because Kievs forces would already be fighting so Russian attacks would be counter attacks, unlike what they were, which was surprise strikes from an enemy force they didn't expect to be fighting... the real Russians.
They called the Ukrainians wanting to speak Russian Russians, and they claimed they were fighting Russians all along but never expected to be facing them in actual combat till they got to Crimea. It was probably a bit like how colonial European soldiers felt about WWI... they had guns and artillery and even machine guns and horses and an organised and trained army against natives who had spears and shields and bare feet. Then WWI started an a couple of million heavily armed Germans came in to view... a terrible shock I am sure. Especially as they had the rifles and machine guns and artillery the the other colonial powers had and it created a real stalemate.
The current stalemate is not a stalemate, the Russians have the resources and men and ammo and equipment in place to attack any time they please, they are waiting for the best time to get the most effect and most damage and kills and perhaps now territory for the least losses to try to get the enemy to collapse.
#Ukraine easily loses 500 soldiers on a given day. 65 #POWs R nothing for #Zelensky if they could be sacrificed in a way that hurts reputation of #Zaluzjniy or anyone else he needs to remove so be it. #Ukranians loyal to regime will be unmoved too. Hate for #Russia is too strong
They have likely lost half a million soldiers and will throw half a million more if they thought it would keep the money coming... they expect to be rescued to the west when this is over because they are defending the west from Russia... you know... like the Afghans weren't (rescued).
And now Ukraine attacked and destroyed a Rosneft oil refinery near Krasnodar. It was the biggest oil refinery in Russia.
One of many... why are you surprised?
They can't protect just everything...
They were quick to blame the Patriot for this ugly crime, before US blames SAMP/T. The blame will finally go the Germans I guess
That is about the size of it... they could argue that the SAMP/T couldn't have done it because all the French Army officers that operate it were killed earlier in that Russian missile strike...
The US is leaving Iraq and Syria under mounting pressure
They were leaving Syria under Trump and they tricked him there too... they are entering talks to leave Iraq, but lets be honest, they will set up cooperation so they will need bases to rotate soldiers in and out of the region which means they will be permanently based there anyway... and that Syrian oil is too juicy to leave alone.
But you are right... the Ukraine is a sick man and Germany is not much better.
So someone wanted to sabotage any form of a peacemaking process similar to the negotiations in Istanbul
As I have said many times, the elections will bring war, and a more aggressive Russia
I think it is more likely these prisoners going back to the Ukraine will form a core of people who think surrender is their best option to stop the mindless bloodshed and those that shot it down obviously want the money to continue to flow and they could care less about blood flow.
IMO Putin will untie the hands of the SVR, and take advantage of what is occurring in Texas
And he will also untie the hands of the VKS, and start downing NATO ISR planes
Such actions would backfire... when your enemy is collapsing because of their own stupid choices and short sighted decisions... don't correct them, don't distract them...
Has Russia provided any concrete proof that the plane was carrying ukrainian pows?
No they haven't, but Kiev came out with all sorts of BS and once it was revealed it carried POWs they didn't deny it.
The comments about them flying S-300 missiles to shoot at Ukrainian cities was hilarious... they have plenty of custom designed weapons that can destroy Ukrainian targets... save the SAMs for the air targets. They have plenty of everything and the luxury of using the right tool for the job.
Quite amazing that the most famous Vasilly Zaytsev is so low down the list. I guess he was early and then withdrawn and used for propagada purposes.
Politics is a factor. His performance in Stalingrad was probably very useful and was very good for morale which makes it a double edged sword if he gets killed in combat, so withdraw him and have him train a new generation of snipers to up their performance and spread the love so to speak.
Apparently if you wander into a PFM-1 minefield, with lesochek or the plastic mine which looks like a toy
None of them look like toys... that is US propaganda from the Afghan conflict in the 1980s... the ebil commies were killing innocent afghan children with mines that look like childrens toys... when they finally provided a photo of them they screwed up... it was a pen and it had made in Japan printed on it in English and was a CIA booby trap for Soviet soldiers.
We would have never come to this had Russia had a capable leadership in 1991-2022.
Of course, you blame Putin because the Ukraine are a bunch of weak pussies lead by corrupt
and given a full colonoscopy by the west... a repeat of what they did to Russia during the 1990s.
It is OK for you to be fooled by western propaganda, I do understand... you probably have snipers across the street in a van reading your every word to make sure you post what you post and try to blame everything on Putin and Russia. The German leader also blames Russia for the German economy at the moment because Putin is all powerful and controls everything and there was nothing he could do except what he did.
Pathetic.
Conversely Russia is in the best possible position it could be... I remember in the late 1990s talking on the internet with American teenagers who thought by now HATO would be flying F-35s and F-22s and that Russia would be begging HATO countries for the no longer wanted F-16s because Sukhoi and MiG and their entire air industry would have collapsed because its eastern european market was gone and serviced by America.
I don't celebrate the lost men or the wasted money, but Russia has achieved almost complete separation from the west and is actually much stronger for it.
If Putin had acted differently... had been either harder or softer... the west would still be getting cheap power from them because they either would have folded or they would be North Korea now... isolated and unable to use its resources to grow and develop without outside technology and help.
The west has really screwed itself in a way Russia and China were not only never capable of, but also never interested in... they would have been happy to cooperate and the west just kept trying to bully them for a better deal... a master servant deal... that the EU bends over to the US for.
The European economy is in tatters and still you say thank you America, you are the best, can we have some more?
Garry won't like this but I can see a Gerasimov Plan, similar to the Marshall Plan of 1948, where Russia financially rescues Europe at 1c on the $, creating a captive market for the BRICS+'s products just as the US did. At that point Putin moves onto a pedestal of his own, with no other equivalent in history.
It is not in Russias interests for the entire west to collapse and despite me and others talking about US debt and their arrogance and not even lifting a finger to deal with the problem other than increasing the amount they allow themselves to print of new money, Russia would not benefit from a total western economic collapse... that will effect global trade and global relations in a bad way.
I think it was Swgman_BK who mentioned how feral western civilians get when you talk about restricting their legal legitimate access to oil and how they would just steal it like pirates at sea, ignoring the consequences.... the reality is that while we talk about how evil western governments are they are merely a reflection of their populations because they wont care about Palestinians being murdered or Russians getting killed in terrorist attacks... but you make their grocery or power or wifi bills too high and they will rise up and vote for someone else...
I would guess they would not make terms with Russia but they might make terms with a combination of Saudi Arabia and China perhaps... but even then they are so proud.
I remember watching an entertaining episode of Long Way Down with Ewan McGregor and Charlie Borman riding motor bikes down from the top of the UK down to near the bottom of Africa and they kept going on about the roads and mentioned roads the Chinese made in a rather negative way, but when they actually rode on them they were impressed and realised the Chinese were actually doing some good there... they didn't mention the damage that Europe has done to that continent these last few centuries but taking shots at Gaddaffi were not ignored. The American in the group couldn't get a passport in time. Well worth watching.
Would the gardeners accept money from the Jungle Bunnies?
They would view it as a means of control... because they use it widely as a means of control... which is ironic because they blame Russia and China of doing the same but the evidence clearly shows they do not.
I seen that on one of the Telegrams too. All 148 POWs (2 planes) were going to be released to Ukraine on Zelenskys birthday. For a big PR song and dance. Sure, someone didn't want the PR event to happen. But what is that one PR event really worth ? It wouldn't be a game changer in the slightest. It would not move the needle one way or the other. The 148 troops would be worth more to send back to the front. So this can't really be the reason.
At a time of the war when Ukrainian losses are an issue I would think Zelensky needed a win and getting 150 odd soldiers back alive would be something to be positive about... and clearly someone else wanted to deny him that...
Ukraine lost. Russia lost. It is just a big ugly sickening mess. That accomplishes nothing but pain and confusion. Most people on both sides can't see the US's invisible hand in these attacks. It seems like people on both sides don't even really know who to blame. An atrocity that no side can really profit from propaganda wise. This is what the Anglo scum does. It is truly the devils work.
I agree Ukraine has lots a lot... men, territory... a working society actually, and Russia has certainly paid a serious price, but this heat has forged some incredibly strong metal at a time when the west is holding plastic swords and cardboard armour that cost more than the real thing.
This whole affair has made Russia strong and also independent and now they can see their future rather more clearly to the East and the South, with little to nothing of interest to the west except some threats they are in the process of dealing with... and they wont be tricked into freezing the conflict for it to be restarted again in 10 years with a more capable opponent.
I would say the biggest loser in all this is the west... it has been broken... everyone sees the king is naked and they have tentacles everywhere but have to rely on massive over reaction or it will be vulnerable to massive attacks in thousands of locations from different enemies it has created over the years.
Previously most countries wouldn't try but now there is the potential for assistance from Russia and China and Iran and quite a few other countries.
MANPADS and ATGMs and other modern mobile capable systems can do very serious damage to any world power spread out like that.
With just the experience they have gained and the production potential of China and Iran and North Korea to support them they could flood any poor country with enough drones and effective anti armour and anti aircraft weapons to make a western attack a bloodbath.
But they now also have the command and control and communications networks to make these poor countries into effective fighting forces... given sufficient training the rest of the world has rather more bodies to throw at the west than the west could ever muster and convince to go to war for the super rich in the west to get slightly richer.
Note will strip away some posts about the US situation to the relevant thread:
https://www.russiadefence.net/t9057-usa-internal-conflict?nid=18132#450844 
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