2024 Iran–Israel conflict

I am sorry, but yours, phst and others bombastic remarks is far from reality is really, really annoying. It makes me think that critical thinking isn't very common at all.

I may exaggerate with my nuke rhetoric like arming Russia with 700k+ nukes but my point is simple, having an enormous capability to employ MAD is a big deterrent against NATO. Imagine if Russia or North Korea don't have nukes, NATO would have gone all in and attacked both countries with full force without having to worry about New York, Paris. London, etc getting obliterated.

Well , when I post , I can not really shout about something  . So to emphasise my certainty about something , or importance , I either have to use Red colour or use emoji . But mods use Red . And emoji does not quite cut it ! I will try to use less , if it bothers you , ok ?

Now about mental disorder , I think it is the human condition that is disordered . Humans as a society seem to respond to fear and pain . Some individuals , not so much , if they are brave ! Nukes keep the peace so far ! Well at least they stop massive conventional wars . What do you think , would have happened , if Russia had no nukes ? Or China ? Or India / Pakistan ? In case of Russia , you would have Napoleon microbe attacking ! He would be at the gates of Moscow again . Millions dead ! So who is crazy ? Granted nukes do not stop all war . You still get skirmishes , and smaller conventional wars , but it can not lead to genocide . What humanity is good at .

Agree with Phst .....a man after my own Heart ........small print ok now ?

The West will certainly not solve this problem by simply printing money to sustain this on the long run.

But they can´t print missiles.

 the most sophisticated and concentrated air defenses

The latter part is true because of the small area.

Then it could sustain an " offensive , " posture for a month at best ! 

After half the time not much of interest would be left in Israel.
The American bases in the region would be gone, too.

easy picking for lsraeli helos

Those helicopters are easy picking for Iranian AD systems. 

Saddam destroyed many oil well heads ! Remember ? He launched Scud against Israel ! He attacked Saudi yank bases with Scud missiles . Iran can do more , it is true . At the moment , it can temporarily physically remove yank bases from ME region . It can stop oil flow temporarily ( a month ) . Beyond this , it is handicapped . NATO withdrawing ( bases , troops , carriers ) beyond range of Iranian weapons at this time , opening fire with longer range weapons : 4000 km cruise missiles , Carrier based long range bombers , and satellite based weapons , God knows what else ! Then what ? They will close in slowly , after a month or two , then defeat . Unless Iran has nuke ICBM .

— WATCH: Iranian 'Kheybar Shekan' ballistic missile carries out an evasive maneuvre in its final stage

One second before impact, the missile carries out an evasive maneuvre by quickly boosting upwards and then down again.

Only a few of these missiles were used, but its shows the sophistication of Iran's missiles, and why they got through.


https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/5852

Half of Iran's ballistic missiles in Saturday's attack on Israel failed to take off or fell short of their targets, Fox News said, citing an unnamed American official.

The Iranian state channel the day before announced the launch of 7 hypersonic missiles ; not a single one of them, as stated, was intercepted by Israeli air defense. Meanwhile, CNN, citing 2 American officials, reported that the US military intercepted more than 70 UAVs and at least 3 ballistic missiles. The Pentagon's Central Command said on Monday night that the United States had destroyed more than 80 drones and 6 ballistic missiles.

The Israeli authorities claimed to have intercepted more than 99% of the missiles and UAVs.

https://t.me/intelslava/57648

The President of Iran was pleased with the results of the attack and the good level of coordination of the Iranian military structures that carried out this major attack.
The IRGC said that now the rules of the game have changed and Iran intends to continue to attack Israel if it directly attacks Iranian interests.

New footage of Iranian drone attacks during Operation True Promise.


https://t.me/intelslava/57663

Iranian media has revealed what kind of weapons (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/21146) were used in the attack on Israel.

The military has not disclosed such data, but state TV claims the following was utilized:

"Hundreds" of "Shahed-136" kamikaze UAVs capable of flying 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) at 185 km/h (115 mph) and carrying a 50 kg (110 lb) warhead;

"Emad" ballistic missiles, introduced by Iran in 2015, the largest Iranian missiles of this class – with a range of up to 1,700 km (1,050 miles). The shortest route from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 km or 620 miles via Iraq, Syria, and Jordan;

Other ballistic missiles without specification;

More than 30 Paveh cruise missiles (range of 1,650 km or 1,025 miles). Iranian media reported this data during a missile unveiling in February 2023, clarifying this missile is capable of reaching Israel.

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Why do Iranian ballistic missile warheads glow before hitting a target? There aren't enough velocities there to create plasma?

Those are 2kkm ranged missiles. Fly exoatmospheric and heat up while reentering.
The same applies to ICBM warheads.

As of now we have 4 confirmed MRBM models used in Operation Truthful Promise:

1: 20 year old Ghadr, with submunition payload to test effects on BMD

2: ~10 year old Emad, to attack southern

3: ~5 year old Dezful, to attack northern

4: ~ 3 year young Kheybar-Shekan

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1779560976473379158

Vox populi, Persian edition: ordinary Iranians asked what they think about escalation with Israel

“Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy, so the IRGC decided to respond. But in general, war is bad. Now, if war breaks out, the common people will suffer the consequences,” a resident of Tehran said, commenting on the potential consequences of Iran’s drone and missile counterstrike against Israel in response to the April 1 Embassy compound attack.

Iran has the ability to devastate Israel in a hot war, another person said. “We see this ability in ourselves because we experienced it firsthand during the eight years of the Holy War of Defense [the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, ed.],” he assured.

“We have absolutely no fear of an Israeli attack, and Israel is in no position to respond to Iran,” another person said, stressing that “Israel has always been defeated by Muslims.”


https://t.me/geopolitics_live/21491

/ The Israeli regime’s army, by releasing sensational and controversial images of the alleged impact site of Iranian missiles, claimed that the missiles had minimal destructive power and did not cause any specific damage to its military infrastructure! This claim has been propagated while US sources, despite severe news censorship, have reported damage to a C-130 aircraft at the Nevatim Air Base.

An important point in the footage released by the Israeli army is that in the vicinity of the crater where the Israeli army claims Iranian missiles hit, no black hole, burning from explosive materials, or baked clay is visible, and even the loose soil is visible next to a crater! These points, along with the Israeli army’s history of concealing casualties, damages, and so on, lead any sound mind to the conclusion that this crater was dug by human and mechanical means, not Iran-made missiles!
The alleged crater made by Iranian missile in Nevatim airbase

This strange footage has been released while Israeli authorities confidently speak of a 99% success rate of their air defense systems and the destruction of Iranian missiles and drones! However, videos of Iranian missiles hitting the Ramon and Novatim airbases tell a different story; furthermore, any assessment of damage and public disclosure regarding the secretive intelligence base in the occupied Golan Heights by the Israeli government is prohibited.

Severe media censorship, the creation of artificial holes, and various prohibitions in the field of information dissemination indicate the extent to which the Israeli regime has been honest in announcing the actual damages incurred!

https://t.me/iswnews_en/10773

The meeting of the Israeli regime's war cabinet regarding Israel's response to Iran has ended without a result, and the next meeting will be held tomorrow.

Axios quoted an informed source as saying that Israel's War Minister Yoav Gallant said in a conversation with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that the firing of ballistic missiles at Israel cannot remain unanswered.

The effectiveness of US, UK air-to-air missiles in intercepting Iranian cruise missiles can be inferred from the absence of any videos demonstrating such an event.

The consistent noise out of Israel is that : ( 1 ) That Israelis have decided to counter strike . ( 2 ) They are undecided about scope , date . The information given out by them regarding 99% intercept is obviously wrong , since video confirms many impact , without any AD challenge . This propaganda can be both good or bad . It can be good , if it is used to avoid a counter strike , reasoning that attack was not successful . It is bad , if it is used to push for counter strike , reasoning that attack was not successful . I heard that if they do decide to carry out a counter strike , it will happen within next 24 hours , and it will mirror to some extent the Iranian attack . I also heard that Iran nuclear facility will be targeted , a clear escalation . Whatever their responses , Iran should avoid the previous mistakes . No fake war . No warning .


About Jordan involvement and neutrality , it can be said that a country remains neutral if it does not allow the use of it's resources by any side . It can also be said that a country remains neutral if it allows the use of it's resources by all sides . In this case , we can not judge yet . If Israel responds and Jordan allows safe passage without challenge , then Jordan becomes a party to the conflict . If it intercepts Israeli drones , missiles etc , it remains neutral .

^

Speak up man ! Don't be shy .

Israeli Chief of Staff from Nevatim base: Launching missiles at Israel will be met with a response

https://t.me/intelslava/57678

Israel is currently considering a symbolic strike as a priority option for responding to the Iranian attack, which would "send a message" but not cause casualties, according to The Washington Post.

It is assumed that this could be a hit of a secondary facility in Tehran or a cyber attack on the Iranian infrastructure.

“Our allies do not want us to go for an over-the-top response and we want to work with our allies, especially after the success we enjoyed with them,” the Israeli official said. “We don’t have to have cause casualties but it’s important that we do respond, because it sends a message to all those who want to harm us.”

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US hard-pressed to react as Iran gets ‘complete map of Israeli defense capabilities’

“The US is always in complicated situations, and most of the time they can only blame themselves,” Dr. Marco Carnelos, a veteran Italian diplomat and former advisor on Middle East policy to Prime Ministers Prodi and Belusconi, told Sputnik, commenting on the strategic bind Washington has found itself in the wake of Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend.

“The Biden administration will continue to attempt a quite difficult balancing act between the necessity to avoid an escalation and its ‘ironclad commitment’ to Israel’s security, which in some cases is a contradiction in terms,” the diplomat explained.

Ultimately, “the ball is now in the Israeli court” as far as the response to Iran’s strikes is concerned, Carnelos believes. “Iran has no further steps to contemplate, it can wait and see, although it could prepare its contingency plans,” he said, pointing out that the weekend’s attack gave Tehran “a complete map of Israeli defense capabilities.”

That means next time, if Israel responds with force, “another attack [by Iran] could not be largely preannounced as it has been this time, and above all…could be carried out with far more lethal and accurate modalities,” Carnelos warned.

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"99.99% interception"

a new clip that is said to have been filmed from the Sinai desert and its angle of view is southwest Israel;

In this short clip, 4 missiles successfully hit their targets and only 1-2 are intercepted. This actually shows average ratio we also observed in other impact clips.


https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/5870